Arrieta to Phillies - 3 year deal, $75 million

[DuWayne Steurer]

I think what everyone has to remember is that this is not "2018 or bust". They had an opportunity to get two guys (Cain and Yelich) that they liked *right now* to add to the rebuilding process, and they will still have those guys when Nelson is back, and fully healthy next year, and perhaps they have a better opportunity to add to the rotation next off-season, or Burnes will have had some time to get up and acclimated to big league hitters.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I still look at this year's trade deadline for when the brewers add an impact starter via trade...and there will be plenty of them on the market then.

 

That said, I still think cobb may be a brewer, too

[TJseven7]

I think what everyone has to remember is that this is not "2018 or bust". They had an opportunity to get two guys (Cain and Yelich) that they liked *right now* to add to the rebuilding process, and they will still have those guys when Nelson is back, and fully healthy next year, and perhaps they have a better opportunity to add to the rotation next off-season, or Burnes will have had some time to get up and acclimated to big league hitters.

 

As I said lynn on a 1 year deal while giving up a pick I wouldn't do. Arrietta at 25 is too much. Cobbs different depending on the contract and its not an 2018 or bust move.

 

Anderson nelson cobb davies chacin moving forward.

Woodruff Burnes on the cusp.

I feel the 2 young guns can replace a guy like Chacin but I'm not comfortable trusting any young arm beyond that. Better should be a bonus not required.

 

Cobb protects Nelson not coming back. Cobb allows a choice to trade nelson (2) davies anderson (3) and chacin (1) next year to backload the farm while bringing up youth. Adding cobb 3 years allows the team to cycle pitching easier and that helps the team in 2021 as much as it impacts 2018. If we are trying to contend for a long window we can't keep nelson davies anderson until they expire. The comp picks would not replace the loss. Drafting and promotion would have to be spectacular to avoid another rebuild in 2022 when nelson cobb anderson davies are gone or old or pricey as heck.

 

Id honestly prefer cobb 4 years for that reason (i have faith he'll age well) but 3 would work and set the cycle in motion.

[Thurston Fluff]

I feel like a lot of people are under-valuing our current rotation. They aren't aces but Arrietta isn't an ace anymore either. With the offense and defense we have our pitchers can be very successful. I'm glad we don't have 25 mil per year tied up in 1 player... That's 1/4 of our entire payroll.

 

Well said. Our staff has a lot of unknowns but so is Arrietta's current ability. Nobody knows how far and how fast someone will decline but we already started seeing signs of it. That is a pretty expensive risk.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Yep. Easy decision for me. So many more red flags with all the free agent pitchers compared to Cain.

 

No red flags with Cain's age and length of contract?

 

I didn't say none. I just said the pitchers had more. Arrieta's decline plus TJ surgery for Lynn and Cobb? Yeah, I'll take the guy who just posted the best OBP of his career, played the most games of his career by far, and is still a gold glove candidate at a premium position and one of the best athletes in all of baseball at 32. No question.

[coolhandluke121]

 

As I said lynn on a 1 year deal while giving up a pick I wouldn't do. Arrietta at 25 is too much. Cobbs different depending on the contract and its not an 2018 or bust move.

 

Anderson nelson cobb davies chacin moving forward.

Woodruff Burnes on the cusp.

I feel the 2 young guns can replace a guy like Chacin but I'm not comfortable trusting any young arm beyond that. Better should be a bonus not required.

 

Cobb protects Nelson not coming back. Cobb allows a choice to trade nelson (2) davies anderson (3) and chacin (1) next year to backload the farm while bringing up youth. Adding cobb 3 years allows the team to cycle pitching easier and that helps the team in 2021 as much as it impacts 2018. If we are trying to contend for a long window we can't keep nelson davies anderson until they expire. The comp picks would not replace the loss. Drafting and promotion would have to be spectacular to avoid another rebuild in 2022 when nelson cobb anderson davies are gone or old or pricey as heck.

 

Id honestly prefer cobb 4 years for that reason (i have faith he'll age well) but 3 would work and set the cycle in motion.

 

I could live with that too. Makes perfect sense. I don't think the market is dead for Cobb at all though. It's not like Moustakas or Lucroy. There will be competition. He won't get Arrieta money, but it might not be that far off.

[82brewcrew82]

Another point about having Mid season flexibility is that you have to be able to get into that spot to make a trade.

 

You think that our current roster doesn't even put us in ballpark of contention?

I think it's debatable.

[TJseven7]

 

Yep. Easy decision for me. So many more red flags with all the free agent pitchers compared to Cain.

 

No red flags with Cain's age and length of contract?

 

I didn't say none. I just said the pitchers had more. Arrieta's decline plus TJ surgery for Lynn and Cobb? Yeah, I'll take the guy who just posted the best OBP of his career, played the most games of his career by far, and is still a gold glove candidate at a premium position and one of the best athletes in all of baseball at 32. No question.

 

Cains simply a good player. All around. We currently have a lack of offense at 2b SS and C. Pina Arcia are solid but we can downgrade rf if we have 1 elite guy at those 3 spots. It could be Hiura. Hiura at 2b allows cain to move to RF with no offensive loss and he could absolutely be a plus RF with good average obp in the later years of this deal.

 

He doesn't concern me at all. 5 war leaves a lot of decline wiggle room to still be good and he's easier to trade as years go on. People seem to think he's here for 5 years. I think hes here 3-4 and the 4th-5th year are sold with a little salary contribution. The decider is who pushes up the farm. You assume the constant for 5 years is Yelich. What Lutz Phillips Grisham Ray Stokes become in the next 5 years plus draft picks and dsl talent decides the CF RF need for Cain.

[DR28]

Opt out after 2 years, deal could be 5 years $125-$135 mil.

[TJseven7]

Opt out after 2 years, deal could be 5 years $125-$135 mil.

 

Ooooouch

 

2 year 55 mil

Opt out for arrieta

Or

Opt-out overide for phillies

 

Override 20 mil base for 3... 115 total 5

Which is likely 25 mil based on starts requirement in 18-19... 130 total 5

Or 30 if he places well in cy young voting in 18 or 19.... 155 total 5.

 

Boras won this one. This is a 55/2 with a very likely 75/3.

 

26 aav over 5 or 27.5 over 2... sheesh. No bueno!

If arrieta doesn't pitch enough in 18-19 its still 23 aav over 5 if phi opts in.

 

Beat Darvish. Yikes!

[pacopete4]

With the new details of the contract, I am sooooo happy the Brewers didn't do something like this.

[homer]

And the Cubs get draft compensation for losing Arrieta. What a joke of a system that turned out to be.

[TJseven7]

With the new details of the contract, I am sooooo happy the Brewers didn't do something like this.

 

Yeah even the flat 55/2 would have me running away. This is a 75/3 only if he falls off a cliff. If injuries hit in 18-19 you can keep him for 60/3 more if you wish.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

And the Cubs get draft compensation for losing Arrieta. What a joke of a system that turned out to be.

Why do you think it’s a joke? I mean it sucks to see them get more picks (they have something like 4 picks inside the top 90 with their own picks and picks for Davis/Arrieta) but the compensation for losing a FA has been a thing for a long time in various forms.

[TJseven7]

And the Cubs get draft compensation for losing Arrieta. What a joke of a system that turned out to be.

Why do you think it’s a joke? I mean it sucks to see them get more picks (they have something like 4 picks inside the top 90 with their own picks and picks for Davis/Arrieta) but the compensation for losing a FA has been a thing for a long time in various forms.

 

I think its strange to get an incentive to buy a FA and not keep your own. The comp picks in NFL make sense. You lose guys and dont sign guys you get comp picks. Getting a pick for Davis and Arrieta I see no issue with. Getting Darvish instead of Arrieta and still getting a pick is strange.

 

It's a pretty clear reward and a reason to go after Darvish over Arrieta.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

And the Cubs get draft compensation for losing Arrieta. What a joke of a system that turned out to be.

Why do you think it’s a joke? I mean it sucks to see them get more picks (they have something like 4 picks inside the top 90 with their own picks and picks for Davis/Arrieta) but the compensation for losing a FA has been a thing for a long time in various forms.

 

I think its strange to get an incentive to buy a FA and not keep your own. The comp picks in NFL make sense. You lose guys and dont sign guys you get comp picks. Getting a pick for Davis and Arrieta I see no issue with. Getting Darvish instead of Arrieta and still getting a pick is strange.

 

It's a pretty clear reward and a reason to go after Darvish over Arrieta.

Got it. That makes sense. They probably should change the rules they don’t lose nor gain a pick in a scenario like this. Don’t lose one for signing Darvish and don’t gain one for losing Arrieta. They’d probably have to go back to the old way of A/B level FA the league determined or allow guys traded at mid season to either be Q0’d or still cost a pick

[TJseven7]

Also favors big markets who can recruit guys with money outside of baseball. Big city equals more advertising money, more faces looking at you. You can compete for Darvish differently, and since he requires no comp you can target those guys while letting your comp guys walk and game the system.

 

Its really set up perfectly for the redsox yankees dodgers cubs.

[Bulldogboy]

Hey guys. First time posting. I am very concerned with the pitching side of things. Especially if we end up with Miley and Suter back to back. Add in Davies and Chacin and we don't have a fastball over 90. Asking for trouble if you ask me. I love adding Cain but thought the plan was to turn around and add pitching with the extra body. Doesn't make sense as far as use of resources.

[brewcrewdue80]

I’ll take Cain in the top half of our lineup and finding arms elsewhere.

 

Yep. Easy decision for me. So many more red flags with all the free agent pitchers compared to Cain.

 

No red flags with Cain's age and length of contract?

 

Not for 2018 or 2019. What these Pitchers are signing for. Complaints on the Rotation for this year but a guy like Arrieta is questionable for the deal he just got. Cain will outperform what he's paid this year, so long as he plays more than half a year.

 

Glad we avoided Arrieta. His recent is questionable on him even being any better than a #3.

[tigerbrew]

I find that Darvish has the better deal, his $126M contract is guaranteed, there is no risk to the player. Arrieta's deal has much more risk to the player.

[jerichoholicninja]

Good lord with all the details. Basically Arrieta comes out way ahead no matter how he performs. Thank sweet baby Jesus he didn't sign that deal with Milwaukee.

[wildcat83]

Hey guys. First time posting. I am very concerned with the pitching side of things. Especially if we end up with Miley and Suter back to back. Add in Davies and Chacin and we don't have a fastball over 90. Asking for trouble if you ask me. I love adding Cain but thought the plan was to turn around and add pitching with the extra body. Doesn't make sense as far as use of resources.

 

They are not going to add just to add. If they have a chance to upgrade at their price they will. I'm sure they have a set number for every available player. Buying just to add or to try to keep up with higher payrolls just jeopardizes the future. I'm fine with them being diligent, and slightly frugal. Waiting till the deadline gives you the advantage of knowing how your players are performing in the first half, and knowing what holes need to be filled.

[TJseven7]

I find that Darvish has the better deal, his $126M contract is guaranteed, there is no risk to the player. Arrieta's deal has much more risk to the player.

 

Do you think Arrieta can land a 51/3 after the first 3... or 71/4 after the first 2?

 

If the first 2 are essentially a prove it deal for a 75/3 opt in. Thats 130/5.

 

Arrieta is 2 good years from out earning Darvish in over 5 years not 6. 126 locked in is nice but he essentially took a stretched 125/5 with a 6th year for 1 mil.

 

I dont think they are equal. They are paid that way if Arrieta can give 2 more good years. Even if he doesnt. 75/3... leaves 41/3 to match and we saw plenty of arms get in the 10/1 range. This year. Only leaves him 11 mil short. Baring a sudden implosion arrieta is going to out earn Darvish.

 

Philly SD... good stuff!

[Eye Black]

I don’t think Arrieta was the right fit for direction the Brewers are hopefully heading over the next few years. I do think they will add a starting pitcher via trade at some point (whether this year or next offseason). I also think there are some advantages to waiting to see how things workout internally and then exploring trade options among healthy starters in July.

[reillymcshane]

I do not doubt that the Crew seriously entertained adding Arrieta, but they simply put their resources (dollars and prospects) into Cain and Yelich. As people have noted, it was just hard to see the Crew adding a $25M salary in the coming years. They might have managed it in 2018 - but with scheduled raises and arbitration awards - our payroll commitment would have been pretty high.

 

While many of us - including myself - are concerned about our pitching depth, I can understand that the club really saw the Cain addition as a really huge improvement. Perhaps they just don't see Arrieta as that big of a deal over someone like Suter. That's a bit hard to believe - but you never know.

 

Obviously, Cobb is still available. We will see if the team goes in that direction or just runs with what they have going forward.