Moustakas agrees to deal with Royals

[bill hAll Star]

Nobody in contention really needs a 3B right now and the big markets are all officially sitting this out. I think the last handful of free agents are going to get less than what they wanted but Moustakas’ situation was the worst out there.

[adambr2]

Some of you are trying to compare completely different players...it doesn’t work that way.

 

It's not player comparison, just market value comparison. Market values are down across the board, all the way up to Darvish and Martinez. The only ones who seemed exempt from this have been late inning relievers.

 

That said, I'm not too concerned with the deal we gave Cain. I agree with the one who said Cain should be the much better value over JD.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Some of you are trying to compare completely different players...it doesn’t work that way.

 

And completely different situations. Pretty clear Moustakas had zero offers outside of KC. It's not like 3 teams were bidding and $6.5m was the highest offer. And it's not like no one was offering Cain and the Brewers just threw out 5 years $80m as the first stab at it.

 

Cain got paid market value. Whether one thinks we should've been the one to give it to him, well that's certainly a matter of opinion.

[Outlander]

Cain seems to be a pretty bad deal at this point. The OF was mostly fine but even if they wanted to add an OF Dyson, Jackson, Jay, etc on one year deals could have given us just as much this year when platooned right and not committed big, long term, money to a 32 year old who depends on athleticism to be good. Could’ve had 1 of Dyson/Gomez/Jackson/Jay, Lucroy or Avila, Walker and Chatwood or likely Cobb for what we gave Cain and for way less years

Not likely, Chatwood is only getting slightly less than Cain this year. When talking total years it is more but I'm sure they have an annual budget and isn't just about future commitment.

[JosephC]

Lifetime .305 OBP and coming off a season where his OBP was .314 (which is actually the second best season OBP of his career). Agree that 6.5 million guaranteed is ridiculously low for him but on the flip side I think 80+ million projections for him at the start of the off-season were equally ridiculous.

[SeaBass]

Lifetime .305 OBP and coming off a season where his OBP was .314 (which is actually the second best season OBP of his career). Agree that 6.5 million guaranteed is ridiculously low for him but on the flip side I think 80+ million projections for him at the start of the off-season were equally ridiculous.

 

OBP seems to really be a theme in FA this off season. Do you think there is an impact with hitters where they start giving up some of their power to be better on base players? Talk about a major shift in thinking if that's the case... we could be seeing throwback baseball.

[tmwiese55]

Kinda surprising the Yankees wouldn't take Moustakas at this price. Gives them a lefty bat to balance. I'd think it's cheap enough to stay under the tax but am no expert. Who knows, maybe that option year was the difference and maybe Moustakas would rather just stay comfortable at home

[Never Outhustled]

Some of you are trying to compare completely different players...it doesn’t work that way.

It’s not about comparing players. It’s about allocating Capital properly, or at least more efficiently, and looking at opportunity cost. 1 of Dyson/Jackson/Gomez+ 1 of Lucroy/Avila+Walker+1 of Chatwood/Cobb>Cain. Let alone passing up Cain and any FA all together and just going to what was needed to get Darvish.

 

Moustakas was 1.8 WAR, Cain was 5.3. Easy to see why one gets top dollar, and the other is unwanted.

[DocLuna7]

IIRC, Cain said he had another offer in hand and that he chose Milwaukee. I also remember seeing reports that Texas was pursuing him as well. Guessing that we overpaid but not by a ton.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Moustakas has had two seasons where he's been above 2 WAR. This is the first time he's hit for significant power, and he usually carries a very low on base percentage. The days of teams paying premium prices for power hitters who don't do much else are over. He's an average defender who doesn't hit for high average and doesn't draw walks. Before this season he had never hit more than 22 home runs in a full season. We should expect this to be the norm going forward

[3and2Fastball]

Cain's value is higher because he is plus defense up the middle and as said, a top of the order bat.

[MrTPlush]

Some of you are trying to compare completely different players...it doesn’t work that way.

It’s not about comparing players. It’s about allocating Capital properly, or at least more efficiently, and looking at opportunity cost. 1 of Dyson/Jackson/Gomez+ 1 of Lucroy/Avila+Walker+1 of Chatwood/Cobb>Cain. Let alone passing up Cain and any FA all together and just going to what was needed to get Darvish.

 

Moustakas was 1.8 WAR, Cain was 5.3. Easy to see why one gets top dollar, and the other is unwanted.

 

Moustakas - 11.6 WAR in a 7 year career (4 seasons with less than 1.2 WAR)

 

Cain - 27.8 WAR in an 8 year career (2.9 WAR or more in last 5 years)

 

What did Moustakas have on his side? Age? Is that even a big deal for a guy who is a borderline average starter? What next? We act shocked over negative WAR Coors product Carlos Gonzalez only getting one year?

[Fear The Chorizo]

I don't get why Cain is an obvious overpay when in reality he was likely the best FA player available this offseason based on his position value and previous 3 years of WAR. Noted before, but he was actually one of the few FAs where there appeared to be multiple teams actively pursuing him, too.

 

JD Martinez's career WAR is 13.7 and he just got 5 yrs, 110 Million. Cain's is 5 yrs 80 Million.

 

I don't want to sign a pile of veteran "bargain basement" FAs and take up 4-6 MLB roster spots that may all give you 1-2 WAR each under perfect circumstances - when it's likely the Brewers already have internal options that can meet or exceed that net level of production across a handful of roster spots who are younger and cheaper.

[LouisEly]

If Cain was 28 he wouldn't be an overpay. People's concerns are that he's 32 and if his wheels go south and he no longer has the speed and range his value decreases substantially.

 

It's also opportunity cost - what is the delta between Cain + current SP group versus Phillips/Broxton platoon + FA starter? I don't know, but some here think that a Phillips/Broxton platoon + FA starter is a better use of resources than Cain + current SP group.

[tigerbrew]

And he turned down a 17 million dollar QO for this year.

 

That said, it didn't seem like he had any other suitors so at some point he had to bite the bullet and accept the situation he really was in, not what he wanted to be the case.

 

Wonder if it was his agent Boras that advised him to turn down the QO. If so, his agent has lost him a lot of money.

 

I think Boras must be getting desperate, his old ways don't work anymore, and he still has several unemployed clients. I can now see Arrieta and Holland signing for much less, maybe this could be a buying opportunity for the Brewers.

[coolhandluke121]

How about $15M a year for Cain for five years? I like having him but all of a sudden it is looking like an overpay this offseason.

Cain had multiple suitors though, Moustakas and Boras from what i've read since free agency, has been looking to create a market and nothing materialized.

 

The Brewers likely were the only team to offer Cain that fifth year, but he wasn't going to be had on a one year deal like Moustakas.

 

Yeah, Cain is a much more valuable player. Moustakas is an ordinary player coming off a career year. It's a buyer's market, but not for every type of player at every position. The guys who really are head-and-shoulders above young in-house options and other free agents at premium positions are still going to get paid. In theory they should have gotten Cain for a little less, but I'm fine with it. Guys are getting so much less because people are realizing they're a dime a dozen, all things considered. Cain is not that.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, I think the dollars were at market for Cain, the only question really was the extra year.

[tigerbrew]

Hope the Brewers are talking to Lucroy and Walker.

[TURBO]

Sign Lucroy and Voght goes, sign Walker, and who goes? Sogard is a CC guy, and I think they are going to give Villar a fair shot at regaining his value.

[Boomer5]

Cain was definitely an overpay when he was signed and this news only makes it worse.

 

But it's not like we are the only ones to not see this coming. Theo can't be too happy right now and all those early reliever contracts have to be looking really bad.

[Boomer5]

Sign Lucroy and Voght goes, sign Walker, and who goes? Sogard is a CC guy, and I think they are going to give Villar a fair shot at regaining his value.

 

Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar

[NOMAAM]

And he turned down a 17 million dollar QO for this year.

 

That said, it didn't seem like he had any other suitors so at some point he had to bite the bullet and accept the situation he really was in, not what he wanted to be the case.

 

Wonder if it was his agent Boras that advised him to turn down the QO. If so, his agent has lost him a lot of money.

 

I think Boras must be getting desperate, his old ways don't work anymore, and he still has several unemployed clients. I can now see Arrieta and Holland signing for much less, maybe this could be a buying opportunity for the Brewers.

 

Holland I agree. Still think the AVV on Jake will be too rich for the Brewers

[PeaveyFury]

 

Villar goes. No brainer. Walker >>>>> Villar

 

The last part is only true if Villar fails to rebound at all. Whether he can do that or not is one of the most interesting bets the FO will make this offseason.

[sveumrules]

Do you think Boras waives his fee on a contract like this?

 

Most free agents that get 5 year deals end up being overpays, so Cain most likely will be too, but it's not a guarantee. While he is 32 he was also in the top 5% of all MLB in sprint speed last season per statcast so any decline will be from an already elite level in that regard.

 

Even if it does end up being an overpay, I don't really care. Lorenzo has more than earned it. He was one of my favorite prospects to follow coming up & despite never getting any top 100 love has been a top 25 player in all of MLB since he became a regular five years ago.

 

The odds of him living up to a 5/80 deal may be small, but they are much greater than his odds were of ever reaching this point in the first place.

[KeithStone53151]

Nobody in contention really needs a 3B right now and the big markets are all officially sitting this out. I think the last handful of free agents are going to get less than what they wanted but Moustakas’ situation was the worst out there.

 

This is absolutely a fact. Moustakas was projected to get 5/85 at the beginning of the offseason and got almost 80 million less than his projection. Nobody except the pitchers were even within range of that. And every team needs pitching, those starters and Holland aren't going to go for pennies on the dollar like Moustakas. My guess is lucroy/walker take a 1 year deals and try to reset for next year. But even if they sign similar deals to Moustakas, they weren't expected to get the gobs of money Moustakas was projected for. Going from 3/36 or 2/24 to 1/6 isn't all that drastic, and neither player has a QO attached which shoudl help them a bit.