Broxton getting more interest than Santana?

[And That]

Yep, I know... But Ichiro isnt an everyday player... Isnt he mid 40s?

Gamel is missing a couple of weeks. Playing Ichiro for a few weeks will be great marketing for them.

[MrTPlush]

The option gives a little value to the acquiring team, but doesn’t really give us more leverage. We don’t need Broxton now and it is incredibly unlikely he is ever useful for us this year. So you really aren’t tricking anyone and sitting at AAA all year isn’t going to increase his value. This will be his peak value most likely. The odds someone pays more at the deadline to have him start is probably not the most likely scenario. Unless the offers are total garbage we are going to trade him before the season at likely peak value.

[KeithStone53151]

Yep, I know... But Ichiro isnt an everyday player... Isnt he mid 40s?

Gamel is missing a couple of weeks. Playing Ichiro for a few weeks will be great marketing for them.

 

Right, Gamel is missing 4-6 weeks from time of injury...which will only be maybe 2 weeks of the season. I also don't think Ichiro will play everyday, they have other OF options that will probably split time with him out there. I wouldn't doubt if Ichiro gets cut once Gamel returns, hence why they didn't go with someone like Jay or Cargo.

[adambr2]

The option gives a little value to the acquiring team, but doesn’t really give us more leverage. We don’t need Broxton now and it is incredibly unlikely he is ever useful for us this year. So you really aren’t tricking anyone and sitting at AAA all year isn’t going to increase his value. This will be his peak value most likely. The odds someone pays more at the deadline to have him start is probably not the most likely scenario. Unless the offers are total garbage we are going to trade him before the season at likely peak value.

 

Disagree. Hard to call this peak value when he would have been worth a lot more at this time last year. Didn't have a good year in '17 and the OF trade and FA market sucks.

 

If the offers suck you can just burn his last option in 2018, and if he puts up a .850 or .900 OPS in AAA which is very possible in Colorado Springs maybe you find a better offer this time next year. I'm not saying he won't be traded, but I wouldn't trade just to trade now. Stearns should stay disciplined like he has with Santana.

[torts]

Arcia & Broxton for Jean Segura

 

I just solved our second base problems. Man, I should be GM.

 

lol, and just created our short stop problem

 

unless...

 

[sarcasm]OF, 1B, 2B, SS - ryan braun[/sarcasm]

[KeithStone53151]

The option gives a little value to the acquiring team, but doesn’t really give us more leverage. We don’t need Broxton now and it is incredibly unlikely he is ever useful for us this year. So you really aren’t tricking anyone and sitting at AAA all year isn’t going to increase his value. This will be his peak value most likely. The odds someone pays more at the deadline to have him start is probably not the most likely scenario. Unless the offers are total garbage we are going to trade him before the season at likely peak value.

 

Disagree. Hard to call this peak value when he would have been worth a lot more at this time last year. Didn't have a good year in '17 and the OF trade and FA market sucks.

 

If the offers suck you can just burn his last option in 2018, and if he puts up a .850 or .900 OPS in AAA which is very possible in Colorado Springs maybe you find a better offer this time next year. I'm not saying he won't be traded, but I wouldn't trade just to trade now. Stearns should stay disciplined like he has with Santana.

 

I'm sure he was referring to peak value going forward, Broxton definitely had more value after the 2016 season...that was probably his peak. But even if he posts huge OPS numbers in AAA, I doubt his value goes up from here. A 28 year old putting up big number in the minors means little to anyone, especially in Colorado Springs.

 

We need to decide if whatever offers we are getting are more valuable to us than the depth. We at minimum can expect solid defense/speed from a reserve outfielder if he's brought up...that has value.

[brewcrewdue80]

The option gives a little value to the acquiring team, but doesn’t really give us more leverage. We don’t need Broxton now and it is incredibly unlikely he is ever useful for us this year. So you really aren’t tricking anyone and sitting at AAA all year isn’t going to increase his value. This will be his peak value most likely. The odds someone pays more at the deadline to have him start is probably not the most likely scenario. Unless the offers are total garbage we are going to trade him before the season at likely peak value.

 

There is always the need for him say Phillips is traded mid-season for a SP or 2b at the deadline. Cain goes down, you will be calling Broxton up to play 4th OF/CF.

 

I really am surprised with Colorado's OF situation and the clear need for a guy like Broxton. BRef has their depth as Blackmon/Parra Major League OF and 0 AAA OFs with 2 AA OFs. I get it, Desmond is playing out there but come on, he is a converted OF who was overpaid and has a similar bat profile as Broxton only for 20+mil more this year and 14mil more next year/beyond. It's amazing how being a SS with a Broxton type of bat gets you 5yrs 70mil contract, and for a CF at Pre-Arb prices gets you Waiver-wire talk or type value.

[KeithStone53151]

Arcia & Broxton for Jean Segura

 

I just solved our second base problems. Man, I should be GM.

 

lol, and just created our short stop problem

 

unless...

 

[sarcasm]OF, 1B, 2B, SS - ryan braun[/sarcasm]

 

We will need someone to play SS innings 7-9 sometimes, he's also going to be our RH Andrew Miller arm out of the pen.

[pacopete4]

Arcia & Broxton for Jean Segura

 

I just solved our second base problems. Man, I should be GM.

 

lol, and just created our short stop problem

 

unless...

 

[sarcasm]OF, 1B, 2B, SS - ryan braun[/sarcasm]

 

Braun or Perez can fit that role. I suppose Segura could just play both SS and 2B.

[JosephC]

I still really like Cleveland as a trade partner for an outfielder. Right now their outfield is probably Chisenhall, Brantley, Zimmer, Guyer and Naquin. Chisenhall and Brantley have injury concerns, Zimmer is still largely unproven and Guyer is aging and his plate performance really fell off last year. As far as I know, and maybe this has changed, but the talk was Brantley would start the year on the DL.

 

I'd start by asking for Yu-Cheng Chang and Shane Bieber knowing that would get shot down. Probably would settle for a package of Shane Bieber and Elijah Morgan. Neither are high upside arms but both are extremely interesting due to their "known outcome" numbers. Really hard to project what Broxton is worth. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections at Fangraphs have him as being anywhere from a 1.2 WAR player to a 0.0 WAR player in 2018 (0.4 WAR average). If Broxton is viewed as a 0.5 WAR player, then he has very minimal trade value which is probably why teams are asking about him...thinking they may be able to land him for near nothing. I'd assess a package of Beiber and Morgan as having 13.74 million dollars of prospect surplus value. That may be more than what Cleveland would be willing to give up, but that's what I'd be hoping to get.

 

Another question is, would the Indian's have enough "fringe" pieces that would be attractive enough for Stearns to swing another Adam Lind type deal? Elijah Morgan is not a top prospect but he's interesting due to those known outcome numbers. Outfielder Mitch Longo is unattractive because he is old for the leagues he's been playing in, but he still slashed .376/.448/.541/.990 last year. 12 months ago, LHP-Juan Hillman was one of the hotter prospect names out there, then had a terrible 2017 and now is completely off the prospect lists but he's still very talented and very interesting and could very well rank as one of the best prospect "buy low" opportunities. I'm not a fan of Brady Aiken at all, but talk about taking a chance on a "fallen angel" prospect as one of three returning pieces of a deal...not crazy to see a GM roll the dice on something like that. Again, I'd be pushing hard for someone like Bieber but it wouldn't be crazy to see a scenario where the Indians could cobble together three "fringe" pieces and get Stearns to pull the trigger.

[clancyphile]

Hmm... suppose this was the deal:

 

Mariners get:

1B/LF Eric Thames

 

Brewers get:

LHP James Pazos (think 2016 Corey Knebel, but left-handed)

LHP JP Sears (think someone who could fill the Hader/Andrew Miller role)

C/1B Onil Pena (catcher of the future)

 

Brewers sign C Jon Lucroy, DFA C Jett Bandy and RHPs Oliver Drake, Yovanni Gallardo, and Aaron Wilkerson

Add LHP Wade Miley, OF Troy Stokes, and UT Nate Orf to 40-man

 

Here is how the 25-man develops

 

cf: Cain

2b: Villar

lf: Yelich

1b: Braun

3b: Shaw

rf: Santana

c: Lucroy

ss: Arcia

pitcher

bench: Pina, Aguilar, Sogard, Perez, Broxton

rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, Woodruff

bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Pazos, Albers, Logan, Jeffress, Guerra

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Hmm... suppose this was the deal:

 

Mariners get:

1B/LF Eric Thames

 

Brewers get:

LHP James Pazos (think 2016 Corey Knebel, but left-handed)

LHP JP Sears (think someone who could fill the Hader/Andrew Miller role)

C/1B Onil Pena (catcher of the future)

 

Brewers sign C Jon Lucroy, DFA C Jett Bandy and RHPs Oliver Drake, Yovanni Gallardo, and Aaron Wilkerson

Add LHP Wade Miley, OF Troy Stokes, and UT Nate Orf to 40-man

 

Here is how the 25-man develops

 

cf: Cain

2b: Villar

lf: Yelich

1b: Braun

3b: Shaw

rf: Santana

c: Lucroy

ss: Arcia

pitcher

bench: Pina, Aguilar, Sogard, Perez, Broxton

rotation: Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, Woodruff

bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Pazos, Albers, Logan, Jeffress, Guerra

 

Why would you add Stokes, Orf and Miley to the 40-man and not have them on the active roster? That part doesn't make sense.

[MrTPlush]

If your comps are anywhere near accurate no way Eric Thames is even remotely close to being enough.

[mlloyd10]

No to Lucroy

[MadThinker88]

I still really like Cleveland as a trade partner for an outfielder. Right now their outfield is probably Chisenhall, Brantley, Zimmer, Guyer and Naquin. Chisenhall and Brantley have injury concerns, Zimmer is still largely unproven and Guyer is aging and his plate performance really fell off last year. As far as I know, and maybe this has changed, but the talk was Brantley would start the year on the DL.

 

I'd start by asking for Yu-Cheng Chang and Shane Bieber knowing that would get shot down. Probably would settle for a package of Shane Bieber and Elijah Morgan. Neither are high upside arms but both are extremely interesting due to their "known outcome" numbers. Really hard to project what Broxton is worth. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections at Fangraphs have him as being anywhere from a 1.2 WAR player to a 0.0 WAR player in 2018 (0.4 WAR average). If Broxton is viewed as a 0.5 WAR player, then he has very minimal trade value which is probably why teams are asking about him...thinking they may be able to land him for near nothing. I'd assess a package of Beiber and Morgan as having 13.74 million dollars of prospect surplus value. That may be more than what Cleveland would be willing to give up, but that's what I'd be hoping to get.

 

Another question is, would the Indian's have enough "fringe" pieces that would be attractive enough for Stearns to swing another Adam Lind type deal? Elijah Morgan is not a top prospect but he's interesting due to those known outcome numbers. Outfielder Mitch Longo is unattractive because he is old for the leagues he's been playing in, but he still slashed .376/.448/.541/.990 last year. 12 months ago, LHP-Juan Hillman was one of the hotter prospect names out there, then had a terrible 2017 and now is completely off the prospect lists but he's still very talented and very interesting and could very well rank as one of the best prospect "buy low" opportunities. I'm not a fan of Brady Aiken at all, but talk about taking a chance on a "fallen angel" prospect as one of three returning pieces of a deal...not crazy to see a GM roll the dice on something like that. Again, I'd be pushing hard for someone like Bieber but it wouldn't be crazy to see a scenario where the Indians could cobble together three "fringe" pieces and get Stearns to pull the trigger.

 

McKenzie & Bieber are to Cleveland like Burnes & Woodruff for MKE. Asking for either guy goes nowhere.

Targeting Hillman or Aiken makes sense, both are far down the pecking order.

 

The bigger misconception is thinking there is a huge OF need in CLE. Brantley is on course to start season on DL but looks to be back mid April. He might surprise & make opening day but being cautious/ conservative says mid-April. Yes Guyer is still having his wrist issue (& is likely headed to the DL too), but that was why Chernoff brought in Upton, Raji Davis & others to spring training

 

Greg Allen is another possible option to fill the short-term need. He is slated for AAA (a level he has skipped) so he gets regualr playing time. If there is regular playing time in CLE I could see him on the opening day roster but he is most likely headed to AAA. Yandy Diaz is another option. He has been focusing on 3B this spring but he has played corner OF for spells each of the last 2 years. I do not see the Tribe making a rash/ short-sighted move. If a trade makes sense for them, they could do it. Otherwise they can sit and wait

 

Unlike MKE which has to deal with the Cubs & Cardinals in its division, the Tribe is the best roster 1 to 40 in AL Central. They can absorb a slow start and take a long view when determining how to deal with injuries or gaps. Where a horrid start (March/ April, say 7-23) might bury MKE in the NL Central, the same start would not bury the Tribe in the AL Central.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I'd like to see Stearns trade Keon Broxton for a prospect(s) with a decent upside, even if it's someone still at the lower levels of the minors.

 

Outside of two SP, I don't see the Brewers active roster needing a whole lot.

 

I'd rather start re-stocking the farm, especially with the assets we lost in the Yelich deal.

[Boomer5]

I'd like to see Stearns trade Keon Broxton for a prospect(s) with a decent upside, even if it's someone still at the lower levels of the minors.

 

Outside of two SP, I don't see the Brewers active roster needing a whole lot.

 

I'd rather start re-stocking the farm, especially with the assets we lost in the Yelich deal.

 

Catcher and 2B

[JohnBriggs12]

Except that the Brewers don't need to trade him with an option still remaining. No need to just give him away so hopefully they get a couple of lottery tickets at least.

 

His option adds to his trade value. With Cain and Phillips the Brewers are pretty well covered in CF. Yelich could play there in a pinch too as can Perez. The corner OF market has been glutted all off season depressing demand for Santana.

[JosephC]

I still really like Cleveland as a trade partner for an outfielder. Right now their outfield is probably Chisenhall, Brantley, Zimmer, Guyer and Naquin. Chisenhall and Brantley have injury concerns, Zimmer is still largely unproven and Guyer is aging and his plate performance really fell off last year. As far as I know, and maybe this has changed, but the talk was Brantley would start the year on the DL.

 

I'd start by asking for Yu-Cheng Chang and Shane Bieber knowing that would get shot down. Probably would settle for a package of Shane Bieber and Elijah Morgan. Neither are high upside arms but both are extremely interesting due to their "known outcome" numbers. Really hard to project what Broxton is worth. He was about a 0.5 WAR player last year and the projections at Fangraphs have him as being anywhere from a 1.2 WAR player to a 0.0 WAR player in 2018 (0.4 WAR average). If Broxton is viewed as a 0.5 WAR player, then he has very minimal trade value which is probably why teams are asking about him...thinking they may be able to land him for near nothing. I'd assess a package of Beiber and Morgan as having 13.74 million dollars of prospect surplus value. That may be more than what Cleveland would be willing to give up, but that's what I'd be hoping to get.

 

Another question is, would the Indian's have enough "fringe" pieces that would be attractive enough for Stearns to swing another Adam Lind type deal? Elijah Morgan is not a top prospect but he's interesting due to those known outcome numbers. Outfielder Mitch Longo is unattractive because he is old for the leagues he's been playing in, but he still slashed .376/.448/.541/.990 last year. 12 months ago, LHP-Juan Hillman was one of the hotter prospect names out there, then had a terrible 2017 and now is completely off the prospect lists but he's still very talented and very interesting and could very well rank as one of the best prospect "buy low" opportunities. I'm not a fan of Brady Aiken at all, but talk about taking a chance on a "fallen angel" prospect as one of three returning pieces of a deal...not crazy to see a GM roll the dice on something like that. Again, I'd be pushing hard for someone like Bieber but it wouldn't be crazy to see a scenario where the Indians could cobble together three "fringe" pieces and get Stearns to pull the trigger.

 

McKenzie & Bieber are to Cleveland like Burnes & Woodruff for MKE. Asking for either guy goes nowhere.

Targeting Hillman or Aiken makes sense, both are far down the pecking order.

 

The bigger misconception is thinking there is a huge OF need in CLE. Brantley is on course to start season on DL but looks to be back mid April. He might surprise & make opening day but being cautious/ conservative says mid-April. Yes Guyer is still having his wrist issue (& is likely headed to the DL too), but that was why Chernoff brought in Upton, Raji Davis & others to spring training

 

Greg Allen is another possible option to fill the short-term need. He is slated for AAA (a level he has skipped) so he gets regualr playing time. If there is regular playing time in CLE I could see him on the opening day roster but he is most likely headed to AAA. Yandy Diaz is another option. He has been focusing on 3B this spring but he has played corner OF for spells each of the last 2 years. I do not see the Tribe making a rash/ short-sighted move. If a trade makes sense for them, they could do it. Otherwise they can sit and wait

 

Unlike MKE which has to deal with the Cubs & Cardinals in its division, the Tribe is the best roster 1 to 40 in AL Central. They can absorb a slow start and take a long view when determining how to deal with injuries or gaps. Where a horrid start (March/ April, say 7-23) might bury MKE in the NL Central, the same start would not bury the Tribe in the AL Central.

 

I think Bieber could be had in the right deal because they are currently six deep in the rotation if Salazar is healthy, Ryan Merritt would be #7, Julian Merriweather is probably one step ahead of Bieber although I strongly prefer Bieber, and Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are one step behind Bieber. As attractive as Bieber is, I haven't seen him on any top 100 prospect lists and would guess he wouldn't stack in the top 150 on most prospect lists (if they went that deep). Can't really see him as being a piece that would be off the board considering the Indian's organizational depth in this area.

 

All that said, the more I thought about it today, I totally agree that Bieber is unlikely in a Broxton deal. Brewers likely have to count out the players on organizational top 10 lists if looking to deal Broxton. Future projections just don't have that much value on Broxton, and if those number-crunchers see it that way it's likely that most MLB clubs would view him the same way.

 

I guess we'll agree to disagree about the Indian's outfield situation. For what should be one of the prime contenders in the AL, I just see them as woefully short in this area. Melvin Upton and Rajai Davis are terrible (both non-roster invitees for a reason) and both have stunk this spring (unless they did something today). Greg Allen is interesting though, he might not have any pop in his bat but he brings many other assets and would be someone I'd be content to go into the season with if I were Cleveland. Kind of like that combination of speed and defense, if he can get on base at a good enough clip then he could be a better performer than Broxton.

[MadThinker88]

I think Bieber could be had in the right deal because they are currently six deep in the rotation if Salazar is healthy, Ryan Merritt would be #7, Julian Merriweather is probably one step ahead of Bieber although I strongly prefer Bieber, and Triston McKenzie and Aaron Civale are one step behind Bieber. As attractive as Bieber is, I haven't seen him on any top 100 prospect lists and would guess he wouldn't stack in the top 150 on most prospect lists (if they went that deep). Can't really see him as being a piece that would be off the board considering the Indian's organizational depth in this area.

 

All that said, the more I thought about it today, I totally agree that Bieber is unlikely in a Broxton deal. Brewers likely have to count out the players on organizational top 10 lists if looking to deal Broxton. Future projections just don't have that much value on Broxton, and if those number-crunchers see it that way it's likely that most MLB clubs would view him the same way.

 

I guess we'll agree to disagree about the Indian's outfield situation. For what should be one of the prime contenders in the AL, I just see them as woefully short in this area. Melvin Upton and Rajai Davis are terrible (both non-roster invitees for a reason) and both have stunk this spring (unless they did something today). Greg Allen is interesting though, he might not have any pop in his bat but he brings many other assets and would be someone I'd be content to go into the season with if I were Cleveland. Kind of like that combination of speed and defense, if he can get on base at a good enough clip then he could be a better performer than Broxton.

 

A team does not get extraordinary depth in an area by giving pieces of it up at every turn. Additionally like a squirrel getting ready for winter storing acorns, teams will build that depth to be ready for injuries and free agency among it current crop. So lets review how the Tribe sits tonight (3/7/18):

Salazar is already behind the rest and looks to start the season on the DL. Merritt is out of options & will perhaps be a long man in the pen this season. Tomlin is a free agent after the season. It was announced tonight that Merryweather has a UCL issue. My guess is he gets TJ surgery and a trip to the 60 day DL in the next week or so.

 

As for the Tribe OF situation, I think you misunderstood my point. Due to their situation & other options, the Tribe has the luxury of time and being able to wait. They do not need to rush into a deal during spring training or by opening day. Perhaps their own pieces are satisfactory via platooning. It proved to be the case in 2016. Remember - unlike the Brewer offense which is driven primarily by the outfielders (augmented by the infielders), the Tribe offense is the reverse - driven by the infield group (& DH) & supplemented by the OF group.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the deal is with the Indians, how about for a couple lottery-ticket types like LHP Sam Hentges and RHP Elijah Morgan?

[MadThinker88]

If the deal is with the Indians, how about for a couple lottery-ticket types like LHP Sam Hentges and RHP Elijah Morgan?

 

I think we need to get onto the same page when saying 'lottery ticket'. That is a player that has a higher potential for NOT developing & panning out. Additionally, (to me) a lottery ticket is someone that doesn't appear on any organization top 30 prospect listings as well as not having played full season baseball stateside yet. BA ranks Hentges #18 and Morgan #29 in the Tribe system in its 2018 prospect handbook. To me that means both are more than lotto tickets.

 

By the definition I gave Jean Carlos Mejia is a lottery ticket (all be it with some helium potential). Luis Garcia (age 17, playing in DSL) is another lotto ticket with helium potential. They are both guys that I am watching to see if they can repeat their success as they move up.

 

Perhaps 1 of them and position player lotto ticket would be match but I doubt the Tribe is pursuing Keon. Having the benefit of time, they can be targeting/ watching other players that might be without a team come the end of spring training and can be acquired even cheaper..

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You put way more stipulations on it than I did. To me, a lottery ticket is a young low floor/high ceiling player. Not a sure thing guy, but a toolsy guy. That's why I named those two.

[A Swing and A Drive]

To me a "lotto ticket" prospect in a trade is someone outside an organization's top 15-20 prospects that is currently at or below AA.

 

I also feel that "lotto tickets" DO have a low floor but a decently high ceiling to take a chance on.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I also feel that Broxton is worth more than some are thinking. I think at least Top 30 prospect and another high upside guy would be coming back. Broxton is cheap, provides good power and defense, and has an option. That's worth more than a couple of 17 year old DSL kids.