2018 Minor League Roster Forecast

[And That]

Don't know if I did this last year or not but usually around this time of the year I do a forecast of the minor league rosters for the upcoming season. This is not a prediction so much as how the rosters could logically shake out given the current state of the organization. I do not aim to predict the future so I do not assume 40-man players will be DFA'd*, nor do I assume non-roster players will be added to the 40-man. Players will be signed/released and traded between now and the beginning of the season, and I make no assumptions about those moves either. Because to assume makes an ass of u and me.

 

*The lone exception: Jesus Aguilar. I don't see how he fits on Milwaukee's roster with 13 pitchers. If he goes unclaimed through waivers, he does not have the right to refuse an outright assignment.

 

There are currently 277 players under contract in the Brewers' organization, and I have 178 of them with at least a shot at playing full season ball. With the exception of Milwaukee, roster forecasts are split between "Active" and "Bubble" with bubble players basically being guys I couldn't find a spot for at the outset of the season. All players are only listed once, so a bubble player could be an option for a level lower (or higher) in the organization chain. Each roster carries 13 pitchers, a roster alignment the Brewers have typically used. Here we go:

 

Milwaukee

Active

Starting Pitchers (5): Chase Anderson, Jhoulys Chacin, Zach Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter

Relief Pitchers (8): Matt Albers, Jacob Barnes, Oliver Drake, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Hader, Jeremy Jeffress, Corey Knebel, Boone Logan

Catchers (2): Manny Pina, Jett Bandy

Infielders (7): Orlando Arcia, Hernan Perez, Travis Shaw, Eric Sogard, Eric Thames, Jonathan Villar

Outfielders (4): Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana, Christian Yelich

 

Disabled List

Starting Pitchers (1): Jimmy Nelson

Catchers (1): Stephen Vogt

 

Colorado Springs

Active

Starting Pitchers (5): Bubba Derby, Wade Miley, Jon Perrin, Aaron Wilkerson, Brandon Woodruff

Relief Pitchers (8): Tristan Archer, Michael Brady, Erik Davis, J.J. Hoover, Jorge Lopez, Nick Ramirez, Tyler Webb, Taylor Williams

Catchers (2): Christian Bethancourt, Tyler Heineman

Infielders (6): Jesus Aguilar, Blake Allemand, Ji-Man Choi, Mauricio Dubon, Nick Franklin, Nate Orf

Outfielders (4): Keon Broxton, Clint Coulter, Brett Phillips, Kyle Wren

 

Bubble

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Brooks, Hiram Burgos, Angel Ventura

Relief Pitchers: Tim Dillard, Ernesto Frieri, Radhames Liz, Mike Zagurski

Catchers: Dustin Houle

Infielders: Jake Hager, Shane Opitz

Outfielders: Quintin Berry

 

Biloxi

Active

Starting Pitchers (6): Phil Bickford, Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser, Luis Ortiz, Freddy Peralta, Cody Ponce

Relief Pitchers (7): Luke Barker, Nate Griep, Brad Kuntz, Jon Olczak, Wuilder Rodriguez, Quintin Torres-Costa, Josh Uhen

Catchers (2): Jacob Nottingham, Max McDowell

Infielders (6): Javier Betancourt, Dustin DeMuth, Lucas Erceg, Jake Gatewood, Angel Ortega, Wendell Rijo

Outfielders (4): Johnny Davis, Trent Grisham, Troy Stokes Jr, Tyrone Taylor

 

Bubble

Starting Pitchers: Jorge Ortega

Relief Pitchers: Preston Gainey, Tyler Spurlin

Catchers: Natanael Mejia

Infielders: Gabriel Noriega, Fidel Pena

Outfielders:

 

Carolina

Active

Starting Pitchers (7): Zack Brown, Marcos Diplan, Tom Jankins, Kodi Medeiros, Drake Owenby, Cam Roegner, Trey Supak

Relief Pitchers (6): Dan Brown, Jordan Desguin, Alec Kenilvort, Braulio Ortiz, Miguel Sanchez, Chase Williams

Catchers (2): Mario Feliciano, Mitch Ghelfi

Infielders (7): Luis Aviles, Dallas Carroll, Ronnie Gideon, Devin Hairston, Keston Hiura, Tucker Neuhaus, Wes Wilson

Outfielders (3): Ryan Aguilar, Carlos Belonis, Corey Ray

 

Bubble

Starting Pitchers: Victor Diaz, Conor Harber, Devin Williams

Relief Pitchers: Rodrigo Benoit, Christian Trent, Andrew Vernon

Catchers: Cooper Hummel

Infielders:

Outfielders:

 

Wisconsin

Active

Starting Pitchers (7): Alec Bettinger, Gabe Friese, Carlos Herrera, Nate Kirby, Josh Pennington, Jayson Rose, Braden Webb

Relief Pitchers (6): Parker Bean, Cody Beckman, Nattino Diplan, Dylan File, Matt Hardy, Brandon Presley

Catchers (2): KJ Harrison, Payton Henry

Infielders (6): Kenny Corey, Gabriel Garcia, Gilbert Lara, Franly Mallen, Trever Morrison, Nick Roscetti

Outfielders (4): Zach Clark, Rob Henry, Demi Orimoloye, Tristen Lutz

 

Bubble

Starting Pitchers: Harold Chirino, Joaquin De La Cruz, Jake Drossner, Bowden Francis, Nelson Hernandez, Michael Petersen, Christian Taugner, Nash Walters

Relief Pitchers: Freisis Adames, Roberto Delgado, Blake Fox, Robbie Hitt, Cody Martin, Kody Rock, Matt Smith

Catchers: Brent Diaz, Carlos Leal, Charlie Meyer, Nathan Rodriguez, Robie Rojas

Infielders: Julian Jarrard, Chad McClanahan, Pat McInerney, Antonio Pinero

Outfielders: Jay Feliciano, Nic Pierre, Joantgel Segovia

[zagski6]

This is awesome! I also do the same thing, but have never posted my predictions.

 

Here are a few of my notes:

 

P Andrew Vernon will be out the entire year (TJ surgery)

 

C Mario Feliciano-Still extremely young. Showed a lot of growth last season, but could use another season at LoA. However, depends on where Payton Henry is placed. If Wisconsin does have Feliciano, Harrison, and Henry its roster, I wouldn't be surprised if Mario plays some LF.

 

C Nathan Rodriguez advances to Carolina

 

P Josh Pennington will start in Carolina

 

IF Pat McInerney will start at Wisconsin

 

OF Jay Feliciano will start at Wisconsin

 

C Natanael Mejia morphs into a coaching role (see Fidel Pena)

[And That]

I totally blanked about Vernon's surgery.

 

The A/A+ catching situation is interesting. I'm thinking the Brewers want to give as many catching reps as possible to Harrison, Henry, and Feliciano. Harrison's bat would probably play in Carolina, though he arguably has the longest way to go behind the plate. I guess I don't see how all three fit on one team easily, though it's possible. I also think that Feliciano may be the least likely of the three to see OF time. Harrison's bat may not allow him to develop behind the plate and Henry is less likely than Feliciano to develop behind the plate.

 

I was higher on Rodriguez going into last year, but watching him in Wisconsin, I'm just not sure that he hits enough to move past a backup role.

 

I initially had Pennington in Carolina, but between the glut of pitchers there and the fact that Josh only has 30 innings above short-season ball/111 innings in three years as a pro, I am less confident the Brewers would push him.

 

And yes, I agree that Mejia/Pena won't see field action this year unless it's an emergency.

[homer]

That Biloxi rotation looks awesome.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That Biloxi rotation looks awesome.

 

I second that! There is a ton of talent in that rotation, and it could theoretically be great. Unfortunately there is a lot of "crash and burn" potential there as well.

 

I could be hallucinating, but didn't Counsell say at one point last week say that it was likely that Burnes would be at Colorado Springs? I also think there's a good chance Nottingham begins in Colorado Springs. His power would be fun to watch there.

[FVBrewerFan]

Interesting, one year later and it's a struggle to put more than 3 OFs at each level.

[And That]

I went back and forth on Burnes/Nottingham between AA/AAA. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see both in CS.

[NolanBratt]

I feel much better about my rough roster projections after seeing yours.

 

Though I'm not sure Jorge Lopez or Aaron Wilkerson ever step foot in Colorado Springs again.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I tried this when the spring roster came out and got much of the same thing, but with some differences. Here are a few, many of which are pretty minor

 

-- I think Cooper Hummel will start the year on an active roster. He had a strong showing in his time at Carolina and actually made a few prospect lists (albeit at the tail end of them).

 

-- Staying at catcher, I actually think Henry stays in Helena simply because of a numbers situation. I don't know that they push Feliciano up to Carolina before he's ready simply because it is most convenient, and I'm not convinced after last year that they think he's ready.

 

-- I've got Berry sticking and Coulter and Grisham pushed down a level, although I could easily see it coming out your way.

 

-- Given the fact both of them struggled last year but Hairston is considered the better prospect I think he'll fill one of the starting infield spots at Wisconsin with Morrison getting the "well someone needs to be there" spot as the backup shortstop in Carolina.

 

-- Pitching, I could see Burnes in AAA and Houser in the AAA bullpen, but with Colorado Springs, those are so tough to predict.

 

-- If healthy, I've got Gainey and Spurlin at AA over Barker and Olczak, but who knows what their situation is. I'm still stubbornly holding out hope that Gainey can stay healthy and turn into a bullpen arm.

 

-- Bold calls on Ortiz and Kenilvort.

[NolanBratt]

Re: Feliciano in Carolina...

 

I asked a scout last August if Feliciano would get bumped to Carolina or stay back in Wisconsin to start. He told me, "Yeah, he's going up" with basically a without-a-doubt look while saying it. Take that for what it is. Sounds like Brewers are quite high on him.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Definitely short on OFs in the low minors. I hope we don't have to rely on R.Aguilar as a starter in Carolina. He was horrible in WI. I think Wes Wilson might get a significant amount of playing time in RF. We have already seen him play there this spring. Surprised the Brewers didn't sign a minor lg FA to fill a spot or two.

 

I also think Nottingham will be in AAA. He could put up a monster year there. That will allow McDowell, Hummel and Houle to man AA and Feliciano, Ghelfi in A+.

[TJseven7]

That Biloxi rotation looks awesome.

 

What's scary is if Kirby and/or Webb can hit the ground running and get a promotion A+ could be the staff to watch. Everyone who could fly up the ranks seems to be there.

[And That]

Though I'm not sure Jorge Lopez or Aaron Wilkerson ever step foot in Colorado Springs again.

I know they held Wilkerson out of there last year, but at the same time they have a lot of talent bubbling up to AA and frankly with Wilkerson's stuff he has to be able to grind it out in tough situations. He may get clobbered again in CS, but he's a guy that might actually take something away from it.

 

With Lopez as a reliever, I'm not so much worried about a CS assignment. They can work around him pitching at home.

[And That]

-- If healthy, I've got Gainey and Spurlin at AA over Barker and Olczak, but who knows what their situation is. I'm still stubbornly holding out hope that Gainey can stay healthy and turn into a bullpen arm.

 

-- Bold calls on Ortiz and Kenilvort.

If Gainey and Spurlin are healthy, they both absolutely start in full-season ball, probably in Biloxi. That'll shift a few guys downward.

 

Ortiz and Kenilvort both have really good raw stuff, and the Brewers kept them around all winter despite being way, way too old for the level they pitched at in 2017. I honestly don't see either winding up in Wisconsin, so it might be Carolina or bust.

[clancyphile]

Hummel, I think is a very good prospect, at least from the offensive stats I've seen. He's a switch-hitter with power and good OBP skills. I'd rank him higher than McDowell, for sure.

 

I think Stokes is more likely AAA-bound, with Coulter in AA.

 

Jay Feliciano is another prospect I like - a big power bat.

 

Carolina has some prospects I've really liked (Gideon, Wilson, Hiura, Carroll, Owenby). Aviles has speed, but just can't get on base.

[KeithStone53151]

I think Medeiros gets bumped to AA whether he truly deserves it or not. He was much better last year, and this would be his 3rd year in high A if he opens there. Wouldn't want him to get stuck in a rut at that level, I think it's better to move him up for that reason.

 

The other surprising one to me was putting Grisham a level ahead of Ray. I could see them moving up both or neither, but if it's one or the other...I'd expect Ray to move up.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Hoover makes the big club over Drake. He's been a much more accomplished reliever an LH hitters actually have a lower OPS against than RH hitters. It's not nearly as extreme as Drake but he can get hitters out from both sides.

[clancyphile]

That Biloxi rotation looks awesome.

 

Brown, Supak, and Owenby at Carolina aren't bad, either.

[zagski6]

That Biloxi rotation looks awesome.

 

Brown, Supak, and Owenby at Carolina aren't bad, either.

 

Don't forget about under-the-radar prospect Thomas Jankins. Not flashy, but had a solid season in Wisconsin.

[KeithStone53151]

I posted the link in the mlb pipeline top 30 thread, but Flanagan came out and said Medeiros will be opening in AA this year.

[CheezWizHed]

That is a lot of starters at A+ and AA... do you anticipate a piggy-back situation?

 

I'm excited to see Herrera, Pennington, Webb and Kirby at A ball this year (or at least more of them). I really doubt that anyone is rushing Kirby out of A-ball this year.

[And That]

Assuming Miley and/or Woodruff end up in Milwaukee, I think that means Burnes and/or Peralta end up in Colorado Springs, and Medieros looks to end up in Biloxi. Guessing Houser gets the Taylor Williams treatment this year, which opens up a pseudo-starter spot. So between Houser's innings being limited early on and a spot or two opening up in CS, I think all of those guys fit between the two/three levels.

[brewmann04]

I agree with Cheez and And That makes sense on Kirby and Houser.

[KeithStone53151]

Assuming Miley and/or Woodruff end up in Milwaukee, I think that means Burnes and/or Peralta end up in Colorado Springs, and Medieros looks to end up in Biloxi. Guessing Houser gets the Taylor Williams treatment this year, which opens up a pseudo-starter spot. So between Houser's innings being limited early on and a spot or two opening up in CS, I think all of those guys fit between the two/three levels.

 

I generally agree on pretty much everything, with a slight add that Houser pitched a bit in fall league and is probably a bit ahead of 2017 Williams. Houser I think gets worked harder than Williams early on and could make a major league impact sooner than Williams.

 

It is definitely nice having so many quality arms and trying to make sure we have appropriate room for them all at levels they belong

[CheeseheadInQC]

It will be interesting to see what happens with the fifth spot in the A+ rotation assuming Medeiros is bumped to AA. Do Owenby or Roegner start (I'd figured both would be looked at out of the bullpen, with Owenby potentially getting a bump all the way to the AA pen depending on the numbers)? Does Webb start the season in Carolina?