Knebel

[coolhandluke121]

Coolhandluke wants to trade everyone.....shocking

 

If you want to bring that stuff here, look back at what guys I wanted to trade in the past and see how it worked out. Tell everyone all about it, too, but have the decency to be accurate and thorough.

 

Otherwise do everyone a favor and keep it about the players and not about the poster. I don't want to "trade everyone" but I will not be one of those homers who is so attached to their team's own players that they refuse to even entertain the idea.

[TJseven7]

Yet guys who can throw 3.0 era get 3 mil.

 

If only there were other statistics than ERA.

 

Wake me when fip wins a ball game... or when you get bonus points for Ks.

[mlloyd10]

There is absolutely to trade Knebel since they signed Cain and traded for Yelich... they are obviously moving away from the rebuild and now in the build stage.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Yet guys who can throw 3.0 era get 3 mil.

 

If only there were other statistics than ERA.

 

Wake me when fip wins a ball game... or when you get bonus points for Ks.

FIP wins and loses a lot of ball games considering it’s the things a pitcher actually controls

[coolhandluke121]

There is absolutely to trade Knebel since they signed Cain and traded for Yelich... they are obviously moving away from the rebuild and now in the build stage.

 

And yet they haven't made any other win-now trades or signings. They're thinking about the present and the future equally, as they should, and doing a damn good job of it. I doubt there's a great offer out there for Knebel but if someone wanted to over-pay, I'm confident Stearns would take the deal; being able to replace him this year would be the least of his worries. They're playing 3-d chess here compared to the typical casual fan who wants to oversimplify everything into win-now mandates and closers vs. non-closers and assuming what a guy did last year is a good indication of the player that he is. That's why they're in this position in the first place.

[TJseven7]

"FIP wins and loses a lot of ball games considering it’s the things a pitcher actually controls"

 

That doesn't decide a game. The pitcher only controls a part of the game.

 

Can you quantify why some pitchers consistently beat their fip and others don't. No... then its just a number. The analytics stance of there is no such thing as clutch directly argues against fip... there is no luck if there is no clutch.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

"FIP wins and loses a lot of ball games considering it’s the things a pitcher actually controls"

 

That doesn't decide a game. The pitcher only controls a part of the game.

 

Can you quantify why some pitchers consistently beat their fip and others don't. No... then its just a number. The analytics stance of there is no such thing as clutch directly argues against fip... there is no luck if there is no clutch.

FIP isn’t perfect but it’s better than ERA for valuing a guy in the bigger picture/projecting moving forward. FIP has it’s blind spots and that’s why there’s certain profiles of pitchers that can often beat it, it doesn’t mean it’s a bad metric to evaluate pitchers. There absolutely is luck and weird sequencing events. I’d also argue there really isn’t clutch, if you’re good you’re generally going to perform, if you’re not, you’re not. But given luck and small sample sizes (like postseason stats) things can get skewed.

[TJseven7]

Fip and fipx are random pointless statistics. Throwing numbers at a wall to see if they stick. They don't calculate the type of contact, just the result of contact. All contact is not equal. Ks are nice but fip over rates them. Calculating out defense is one thing... calculating all contact as equal is nonsense.

 

If you k a lot of guys but also watch rockets sprayed around the yard when you don't K a guy you'll see a babip spike that correlates with hard contact. Thats statistically significant and factors in more ways than fbs and hrs.

 

Until it factors in soft contact vs hard contact is just something to look at.

[Lathund]

Fip and fipx are random pointless statistics. Throwing numbers at a wall to see if they stick. They don't calculate the type of contact, just the result of contact. All contact is not equal. Ks are nice but fip over rates them. Calculating out defense is one thing... calculating all contact as equal is nonsense.

 

If you k a lot of guys but also watch rockets sprayed around the yard when you don't K a guy you'll see a babip spike that correlates with hard contact. Thats statistically significant and factors in more ways than fbs and hrs.

 

Until it factors in soft contact vs hard contact is just something to look at.

 

They predict future ERA better than past ERA does, which is sort of their point. They cut out a lot of the noise; i.e fielding, sequencing etc. that affects ERA. That's especially useful for relievers with their tiny sample sizes where ERA, unless it's over several seasons, is pointless for predicting anything. I don't think there's anyone out there who thinks type of contact (or framing, or quality of hitters faced, or pitch type, or infield defense, or park factors, or weather, or previous workload, # of pitches thrown or a whole bunch of other stuff) doesn't matter, but it's also a matter of turning that data into statistics. Baseball Prospectus attempts to do that with DRA, which tries to factor in seemingly everything, but FIP is the opposite end of that approach; finding something very simple and very tangible that still does the job.

 

If what you're looking for is one number and one number alone to simply tell you, in all casess, with a good degree of certainty whether a pitcher is good or not and also whether he'll continue being good, then of course you're not going to find FIP or xFIP very useful. A pitcher who puts up a low ERA while issuing few walks and getting a lot of Ks is more likely to repeat that than a pitcher who put up that same ERA with a high BB% and a low K%. Or in other words; walks are bad. Allowing baserunners to advance or score is bad. Other things are bad too, but those things are part of it, and are easily available from the box score and requires no subjective classification or analysis (such as classifying exactly the cutoff between "hard" and "medium" contact, or deciding on how to treat exit velocity at certain launch angles etc).

 

FIP is a very useful statistic with predictive value, but it's just one of several things to take into account, and you need to look at the whole picture. However, saying "FIP is pointless" is saying that looking at strikeouts, walks and HRs are pointless when evaluating a pitcher. Which is just wrong.

[BrewCity22]

Stearns is not dumb enough to move Knebel. Look at every playoff team. They all rely on an elite closer whose been there before and can close high pressure moments. Sure Knebel has only done it for one year and I highly doubt he regresses much if at all. He is basically a Craig Kimbrel.. minus the movement on his fastball. Brewers have no one that is MLB ready to close that would be a better option. If we’re going for the playoffs now, there’s no way in hell that he gets moved.

[coolhandluke121]

Stearns is not dumb enough to move Knebel. Look at every playoff team. They all rely on an elite closer whose been there before and can close high pressure moments.

 

This is the worst cliche ever. Most of those "elite closers" were once just a talented reliever who you would have said wasn't a proven closer and therefore no playoff team should rely on him. And you would have used that as your argument for why you shouldn't trade the one you already had. According to your logic, Knebel would have been the guy you can't rely on literally not even one year ago, and that's why they had to sign Feliz and give him a shot.

 

It's strictly circular logic, too. Playoff teams are going to have good bullpens and they're going to use their most talented relievers to close. That doesn't make their most talented reliever irreplaceable. The closers vs. non-closers stuff is ridiculous.

[StearnsFTW]

If the object is to win games, our two most important players are Knebel and Hader and it's not particularly close.

 

You'd only trade him in July if the team is not in contention.

 

Ummmm.......No. This is not even remotely true.

[homer]

Hey guys, lets all tone down the condescension. Take a breath, do a sudoku, then post...don't come in with guns blazing.

[McRibMcLove]

*Post Edited, please do not leave comments like that and stick to baseball*

[adambr2]

I can see both sides of this one. Knebel was fantastic last year and so it stands to reason as a team that hopes to contend we wouldn't be interested in dealing with him.

 

With that said, all but the really truly great relievers are volatile from year to year, and Stearns has had a knack for bailing at the right time with guys like Thornburg and Smith (yeah, I know the Smith return hasn't worked out so far, but c'mon, we all loved it at the time).

 

I also see a lot of potential late inning relievers in our system that could eventually fill that role. So if someone like Taylor Williams is lights out and a king's ransom falls into your lap for Knebel, it's tough to turn down.

 

At the end of the day, as others have said, this probably doesn't happen unless we're out of contention at the deadline and Knebel has been fantastic, and it's tough to see both of those things happening. If it did, I could definitely see them dangling him out there, but the return would have to be excellent.

[pacopete4]

I can see both sides of this one. Knebel was fantastic last year and so it stands to reason as a team that hopes to contend we wouldn't be interested in dealing with him.

 

With that said, all but the really truly great relievers are volatile from year to year, and Stearns has had a knack for bailing at the right time with guys like Thornburg and Smith (yeah, I know the Smith return hasn't worked out so far, but c'mon, we all loved it at the time).

 

I also see a lot of potential late inning relievers in our system that could eventually fill that role. So if someone like Taylor Williams is lights out and a king's ransom falls into your lap for Knebel, it's tough to turn down.

 

At the end of the day, as others have said, this probably doesn't happen unless we're out of contention at the deadline and Knebel has been fantastic, and it's tough to see both of those things happening. If it did, I could definitely see them dangling him out there, but the return would have to be excellent.

 

I read this and I thought for a second you were going to defend that ridiculous “joke”