Knebel

[KeithStone53151]

Look at what selling high on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress got them. Look at how Lucroy's and Gomez's replacements were better than they were just a half a season later. And conversely, look what failing to sell high on Villar and Guerra got them.

 

Devil's advocate on these players downward swings. Thornburg was wrecked by Boston's throwing program. Jeffress is a headcase and clearly needs a familiar, controlled environment. Smith got hurt, you can't trade every pitcher out of fear that "this is the year his elbow goes". Gomez had a couple good years in his peak 26-29 age range and regressed after that...not at all uncommon. Villar basically followed in Segura's footsteps, less the personal tragedy. I don't think Guerra's 2017 surprised anyone given his age. The most surprising falloff of this group was lucroy.

 

Also the general team situation dictated the moves. We are at a different place as a franchise than we were when we made these moves. I'm a huge huge Stearns fan, but I don't think him and our front office is THAT much smarter than even some of the worse front offices in baseball at this point. If Knebel had a ton of red flags and we thought he'd regress...other teams would see it too. It would be a somewhat similar scenario to Guerra's post-2016 market...he was likely shopped and clearly nobody was stupid enough to offer what Stearns deemed a worthy package for him.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Said this elsewhere where Knebel was included in a horrible trade idea. This team is trying to compete, not rebuild. The Ken Giles trade happened while Philly was and remains in a decade long rebuild. You don't make such a move. If you did, you are acquiring a TOR top 20 prospect which is: Ohtani, Whitley, Kopech, Buehler, Keller, Reyes, Honeywell and Gore via MLB.com.

 

Plus a RP or toolsy position player. Based on where that group is at(you'd want someone to add to the team this season) Gore would be out. Reyes after TJ and a Cardinal would be out. Keller for Pittsburgh would be out. Ohtani has to be out.

#1 would likely be Buehler.

After that it gets hard to believe.

2-Whitley. Only Houston has Giles they've made this trade already and are losing SP after this year

3-Kopech. Boston needs him more than they do Kneble having Kimbrel

4-Honeywell-Tampa breeds these pitchers for the future not trade them for the current in 3 years maybe?

 

 

So you go down the line a little further

Triston McKenzie would make sense, though I think his floor is too risky.

 

And my best fit is simply Atlanta who has a ton of SPs to offer up and not the Craig Kimbrel/Kneble closer anymore. Look out for that future matchup as Atlanta graduates more of their studs and competes and decides to move forward in competing.

 

Either way you look at it, there isn't a fit now with a Kneble trade. Cleveland being the best option for reality.

 

I have a hard time wanting to move a guy with 4 years of control when you can trade him for same or even better value a year or two from now. Making this team worse for a future better SP, just a move fans will question. We are an 84.5 win Vegas team and Kneble probably adds 3 wins if not 4. Moving him drops us to below a .500 team which with 6OF and lost Closer makes you question what are we doing?

Kopech was traded to the White Sox in the Chris sale deal. They don’t really need a top shelf closer anyway since they are rebuilding at this time.

[reillymcshane]

As people have noted, Knebel isn't going to be dealt because no team that needs him will have an elite starting pitcher they will give up for him.

 

Now, fast forward to the trade deadline - and we will see where Milwaukee is in the race. If this team regresses badly and is out of contention - and Knebel is doing great - they should entertain dealing him. But right now, he's an integral part of a team that we expect to make a playoff run.

 

As said earlier - this is just not the time.

[82brewcrew82]

I'd be more inclined to be in the "not now" crowd if we had acquired more starting pitching. Since they haven't that signals to me they are still in rebuilding mode. Thus, I'd part with Knebel if someone were offering a deal worthy of taking.

[Warning Track Power]

I have zero interest in dealing Knebel. He is worth more to the Brewers than they will receive in a trade. Which, coincidentally, is also the reason Domingo remains a Brewer.

[brewcrewdue80]

Knebel currently lacks the control to duplicate what he did last year and is a pretty solid bet to regress. I'm pretty sure he's projected to have an e.r.a. of about 3.5 but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. In any case, it's kind of silly to talk about him as if you'd be giving away a great closer; there's a very good chance he's not even one of the 3 or 4 best relievers on the team this year. Barnes or Williams could easily be this year's Knebel. Making personnel decisions is all about being better than your rivals at predicting performance.

 

Any Average Joe can say "Look at what he did last year; no way you trade him!" But if everyone's productivity was already known in advance, the standings would be the same as the rankings of what teams can afford to pay their players. Despite all the complaints about being a small market, many of which are justified, places like this are where they can beat the big markets by regularly out-"guessing" them. And I put that in quotation marks because it's not really about guesswork, so much as it is about regularly playing the odds. You'll win some trades and lose others, but in the end you'll come out way ahead if you're patient and disciplined. That's exactly what got them 86 wins and all the excitement about this season that goes with it, so I don't understand why anyone would be close-minded about similar moves. It's often not even a step back just a few months later. Look at what selling high on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress got them. Look at how Lucroy's and Gomez's replacements were better than they were just a half a season later. And conversely, look what failing to sell high on Villar and Guerra got them. All those actual or proposed trades would have been seen as giving up on the season, and yet all of the ones that happened fetched at least one player (and sometimes more) who ended up much better than the guy who was traded away. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the could trade Knebel for two bullpen prospects who are better and cheaper than Knebel some time in 2019, and maybe even sooner.

 

All that said, they wouldn't get the kind of offer people here might think they would because other teams know how hard it's going to be for Knebel to duplicate his success. Control can improve, but he doesn't project to be an elite reliever in the long term as it stands right now. If they got an offer worthy of the season he just had, the Brewers would be fools to keep him, but that's probably a moot point.

 

12.5k/9 for his career and 14.9k/9 last season. For a RP that's pretty elite. you get excited when a guy goes above 9k/9. Barnes and Williams haven't even touched that level in the minors at best 11k/9. Kneble has practically been there from the beginning. Minors as well.

[TJseven7]

Knebel currently lacks the control to duplicate what he did last year and is a pretty solid bet to regress. I'm pretty sure he's projected to have an e.r.a. of about 3.5 but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. In any case, it's kind of silly to talk about him as if you'd be giving away a great closer; there's a very good chance he's not even one of the 3 or 4 best relievers on the team this year. Barnes or Williams could easily be this year's Knebel. Making personnel decisions is all about being better than your rivals at predicting performance.

 

Any Average Joe can say "Look at what he did last year; no way you trade him!" But if everyone's productivity was already known in advance, the standings would be the same as the rankings of what teams can afford to pay their players. Despite all the complaints about being a small market, many of which are justified, places like this are where they can beat the big markets by regularly out-"guessing" them. And I put that in quotation marks because it's not really about guesswork, so much as it is about regularly playing the odds. You'll win some trades and lose others, but in the end you'll come out way ahead if you're patient and disciplined. That's exactly what got them 86 wins and all the excitement about this season that goes with it, so I don't understand why anyone would be close-minded about similar moves. It's often not even a step back just a few months later. Look at what selling high on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress got them. Look at how Lucroy's and Gomez's replacements were better than they were just a half a season later. And conversely, look what failing to sell high on Villar and Guerra got them. All those actual or proposed trades would have been seen as giving up on the season, and yet all of the ones that happened fetched at least one player (and sometimes more) who ended up much better than the guy who was traded away. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the could trade Knebel for two bullpen prospects who are better and cheaper than Knebel some time in 2019, and maybe even sooner.

 

All that said, they wouldn't get the kind of offer people here might think they would because other teams know how hard it's going to be for Knebel to duplicate his success. Control can improve, but he doesn't project to be an elite reliever in the long term as it stands right now. If they got an offer worthy of the season he just had, the Brewers would be fools to keep him, but that's probably a moot point.

 

12.5k/9 for his career and 14.9k/9 last season. For a RP that's pretty elite. you get excited when a guy goes above 9k/9. Barnes and Williams haven't even touched that level in the minors at best 11k/9. Kneble has practically been there from the beginning. Minors as well.

 

I do believe Hader and Peralta have.

[3and2Fastball]

Fast forward to the trade deadline, we will not be in contention with this current pitching staff

[MrTPlush]

Knebel currently lacks the control to duplicate what he did last year and is a pretty solid bet to regress. I'm pretty sure he's projected to have an e.r.a. of about 3.5 but I'm too lazy to look it up right now.

 

Aroldis Chapman disagrees with your assessment about control.

 

Projections? Projections? Is that your argument?

[And That]

Aroldis Chapman is a generational talent. It's not fair to Knebel to compare the two.

 

Knebel is likely to (though of course not guaranteed to) regress if he can't get his walk rate under control. It's also extremely unlikely that he has a >90% strand rate in 2018.

 

That said, it doesn't make much sense for the Brewers to trade him at this point. He should be at least a solid back-end pitcher and brings value on the mound to a team that can use every bit of it.

[MrTPlush]

Aroldis Chapman is a generational talent. It's not fair to Knebel to compare the two.

 

The way they get their success on the mound is similar. Obviously Knebel isn't Chapman. Both, however, have control issues that they make up for.

 

Obviously Knebel is going to regress. A 1.74 ERA is pretty nuts. Even a big regression leaves him as a really really good closer.

[KeithStone53151]

Aroldis Chapman is a generational talent. It's not fair to Knebel to compare the two.

 

Knebel is likely to (though of course not guaranteed to) regress if he can't get his walk rate under control. It's also extremely unlikely that he has a >90% strand rate in 2018.

 

That said, it doesn't make much sense for the Brewers to trade him at this point. He should be at least a solid back-end pitcher and brings value on the mound to a team that can use every bit of it.

 

Knebel's k rate is so high, that a much higher than league average strand rate would make sense. No different than arguing that Santana's BABIP should be much higher than league average considering his hard contact and line drive rates. Maybe >90% doesn't happen again, but I'd anticipate it to remain above league average. Also, Knebel is still fairly young and it's probably more likely for his control to get better than worse. It's altogether possible that his control improves slightly, but his overall line(ERA)gets slightly worse based on some favorable numbers regressing a bit.

[NievesNoNO]

Any team that would be in position to pay up for a good closer and Santana is going to be a competitive team. Why would a competitive team be trading a TOR starter?

 

This is my thought as well. If he is able to come close to last year's results and they are out of it at the deadline then I think you could make a good case for entertaining offers.

 

I think he's good but he walks too many and we've seen what happens when he can't get his curve over. He's pretty mortal as are most pitchers when they need to solely rely on their fastball. Thankfully that wasn't very often in 2017, but count me in as cautiously optimistic regarding his projections for 2018.

[clancyphile]

My first choice would be to extend Knebel - say, six years, $39 million. He's that good, and I'd rather have that known quantity.

 

If not, then look for the deal.

[MadThinker88]

My first choice would be to extend Knebel - say, six years, $39 million. He's that good, and I'd rather have that known quantity.

 

If not, then look for the deal.

 

I understand the desire to extend Knebel but why should he accept a deal like that (giving up 3 years of free agency). Relievers especially good closers and good setup people are finally getting increased salaries.

 

Consider the deals gotten (via arbitration/ single year agreements) by Cody Allen..

Year Age Tm Salary SrvTm Sources Notes/Other Sources

2013 24 Cleveland Indians $492,600 0.076 contracts

2014 25 Cleveland Indians $515,400 1.076 contracts

2015 26 Cleveland Indians $547,100 2.076 contracts

2016 27 Cleveland Indians $4,150,000 3.076

2017 28 Cleveland Indians $7,350,000 4.076 contracts

2018 29 Cleveland Indians $10,575,000 5.076

Earliest Free Agent: 2019

 

And Bryan Shaw got 3 yrs/ $27M as a free agent during this considered "slow" off season.

 

I believe it would need to be a greater AAV to get Corey to sign a deal to give up any arbitration or free agency years..

[coolhandluke121]

Knebel currently lacks the control to duplicate what he did last year and is a pretty solid bet to regress. I'm pretty sure he's projected to have an e.r.a. of about 3.5 but I'm too lazy to look it up right now.

 

Aroldis Chapman disagrees with your assessment about control.

 

Projections? Projections? Is that your argument?

 

No, the argument, backed up by decades of conclusive statistical evidence, is that walking as many people as Knebel does makes it really hard to consistently be a top-flight reliever.

 

Aroldis Chapman? ONE counter-example? That's your argument?

[coolhandluke121]

 

12.5k/9 for his career and 14.9k/9 last season. For a RP that's pretty elite. you get excited when a guy goes above 9k/9. Barnes and Williams haven't even touched that level in the minors at best 11k/9. Kneble has practically been there from the beginning. Minors as well.

 

And I've loved him since they got him in the Gallardo trade. But if anyone really thinks he wasn't lucky last year and wants to make an offer worthy of a young Kimbrel, bye Corey. We'll figure something else out.

 

The whole closer thing is kind of a joke. They didn't have a closer when they traded K-Rod and Jeffress and Thornburg and Smith and Fetters and Kolb and Plesac, or when Feliz and Axford and Turnbow and Doug Henry and Doug Jones and Hoffman and Gagne bombed and... oh, what do you know, any talented reliever who isn't scared of the pressure can do the job more than adequately and often be even better than the guy he replaced. It's a revolving door. There's not that much difference in win probability between average ones and great ones. They don't pitch many innings. They can max out on velocity and put up ridiculous numbers in short stints. Most of them are just failed starters. The fact that so many of the best closers make the hall of fame when literally thousands upon thousands of players who won't sniff the hall have been more valuable and harder to replace is one of the biggest jokes in sports.

 

That's why it's a moot point of course. Nobody is going to give up a haul for a guy like Knebel now. They all learned their lesson at the 2016 deadline, where the Brewers especially played a bunch of teams like total chumps. It was a Royals-induced fad. Teams were right about the importance of effective relievers in their prime but dead wrong about what you have to give up to get them, and especially wrong about how much performance can vary from year to year. They won't get a great offer so it's all hypothetical. I like him a lot and I'm glad he's a Brewer. He gives them an advantage. However, you take advantage of any impulsive, impatient team that's willing to overpay for immediate gratification as soon as you get the chance.

[TJseven7]

I sure hope the fad hasn't passed. Teams still paid out the backside for Davis and it was going to be holland. I'm fine with a bunch of hughes albers types in the pen if we can simply have 2 that are closer to 3 era and as you said not scared of the responsibility. I really like Williams, Haders got it. I think peralta is destined for it. Houser has 2 60 grade pitches.

 

If the offer doesn't come so be it. But 3.5 mil is going to jump 3 subsequent times and our pen has youth waiting and has been something stearns pays for in pennies. If the offer is close to there I'd pounce on it. Our pen put up 3.85 era last year. 6 jeffress types 1 albers and 1 hader is a giant improvement.

[coolhandluke121]

I sure hope the fad hasn't passed. Teams still paid out the backside for Davis and it was going to be holland. I'm fine with a bunch of hughes albers types in the pen if we can simply have 2 that are closer to 3 era and as you said not scared of the responsibility. I really like Williams, Haders got it. I think peralta is destined for it. Houser has 2 60 grade pitches.

 

If the offer doesn't come so be it. But 3.5 mil is going to jump 3 subsequent times and our pen has youth waiting and has been something stearns pays for in pennies. If the offer is close to there I'd pounce on it. Our pen put up 3.85 era last year. 6 jeffress types 1 albers and 1 hader is a giant improvement.

 

Yep, 2nd paragraph is totally on point. Stearns understands it. Look how much complaining there was here when one mediocre reliever after another signed for $6-8m per year or more early in the offseason; thankfully, Stearns was patient and wise through it all. Talent-wise, there's not nearly that much difference between most of the guys who happened to have a good year or two recently and many of the guys who didn't. It's just reactionary. Knebel is more talented than those guys, but he's not somebody you need to cling to.

 

I wouldn't say Davis's contract is evidence that the fad is still there. They're not giving up much in trade value for him, and Davis is a consistent top-flight talent with many years of production on his resume. Also, it's not really a fad if only one team is still over-paying that much for a closer, though I would say that a lot of teams are feeling pretty stupid after paying so much for guys like Swarzak in this market. I see the days of getting 2-3 solid prospects for guys like Thornburg being over.

[jerichoholicninja]

Relief pitching isn't a fad. Starters are throwing less innings every year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Someone needs to pitch the last 3-4 innings of a game.

[TJseven7]

Yet guys who can throw 3.0 era get 3 mil.

[coolhandluke121]

Relief pitching isn't a fad. Starters are throwing less innings every year and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Someone needs to pitch the last 3-4 innings of a game.

 

That's not what I meant. It's over-paying in trades that was a short-lived fad. People are realizing you don't have to do that to have a good bullpen.

[pacopete4]

Yet guys who can throw 3.0 era get 3 mil.

 

If only there were other statistics than ERA.

[mlloyd10]

Coolhandluke wants to trade everyone.....shocking

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Never a big fan of committing more money/years to pitchers than needed when they are already under control for awhile, especially relief pitchers. Also factor in the unique ability the Brewers seem to have to find these closers to come out of nowhere and be elite for 1-2 years then completely blow up. I could be talked in to a trade for Knebel now or else just ride it out through the controlled years, no interest in extending and guaranteeing any more money than needed.