Knebel

[rickh150]

Would trading our best reliever, with multiple years of control (4?), after one of his best years, possibly ever, be a prudent thing? Probably not, I know, but if we could get a TOR starter straight up for him and Woodruff or Santana, wouldn't we be wise to listen? Shutdown bullpen guys are rare, and it wold be tough to see him go, but pair him with an OF or young pitching prospect for deGrom, let's say, and I'd be thrilled.

Has anyone heard of any rumblings about trading Knebel? I heard Hader was basically off any type of trade list, but no word on Knebel.

[badger3034]

Shut down bullpen guys are not that rare, and not even in the realm of being close to the value of a TOR pitcher. Trading Knebel would net you basically a couple of mid level prospects. No

 

The reason Hader is on the no trade possibility list is because he has potential to become a starter at the big league level, if his stuff transitions well, thats an entirely different story than a guy like Knebel who can go 1 inning

[TJseven7]

We've seen some closers net a pretty hefty trade package. I don't think trading him for instant impact is prudent. I dont think trading him today is wise but if we aren't contending at the trade deadline I would. Next offseason I would. I'd be looking to stock the farm back up though.

 

Granted for that to be wise we need to see Williams or Barnes make a step up or Peralta hit the pen guns blazing.

[pacopete4]

Not the right time.

[Oldcity]

Any team that would be in position to pay up for a good closer and Santana is going to be a competitive team. Why would a competitive team be trading a TOR starter?

[Boomer5]

Knebel would bring back a massive haul. This is 2018. Delivers are critical to the game.

 

But if they trade him they don't have a closer and they are back to being a non contender.

[TJseven7]

Knebel would bring back a massive haul. This is 2018. Delivers are critical to the game.

 

But if they trade him they don't have a closer and they are back to being a non contender.

 

Hader and possibly Peralta with williams barnes houser in training. I think you are overrating closer. The pen needs a 3.5 era throughout. With 2 sub 3 era anchors.

[KeithStone53151]

Shut down bullpen guys are not that rare, and not even in the realm of being close to the value of a TOR pitcher. Trading Knebel would net you basically a couple of mid level prospects. No

 

The reason Hader is on the no trade possibility list is because he has potential to become a starter at the big league level, if his stuff transitions well, thats an entirely different story than a guy like Knebel who can go 1 inning

 

You should research what the Astros gave up for Ken Giles. That's probably the best comp for knebel right now. That said, I don't care. We are ramping up to contending status and are likely best served keeping knebel.

[MenchHead]

I get it. Closer/set-up guys have monstrous years and then fall off the map. I understand the worry.

 

I hoped he would be a godsend from year one (after the trade). He was not. He had flashes. He was hyped! I became less enamored with him. He reminded me why closers are sucky.

 

He just had a possible career year. But, heck, he was dominant. He was groomed for this role. I see he has four years left of team control and we’re wondering what he’s worth? Even if it’s three years, you have to be insane to trade him, especially part of a package.

[Outlander]

Not the right time.

Pretty much this. If the team is underperforming near the break and Knebel is lights out again then it could get interesting.

[3and2Fastball]

If we aren't going to bring a TOR guy or two we might as well trade Knebel. This halfway stuff is what leads to zero World Series Championships in franchise history.

[JohnBriggs12]

Feliz cost them a playoff berth in 2017 and someone suggests they should unload one of the top closers in the game right now?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Perhaps if the team was coming off a poor season and wasn't predicted to compete, and perhaps if Knebel was close to free agency. But they're not, and he's not. Yes, his price is going to continue to climb through arbitration, but it's not going to get to the point where its a detriment to team finances. Hader certainly has the ability to someday be a shut-down closer, but until the team determines what his ultimate long-term role is, that is off the table.

[Roderick]

Any team that would be in position to pay up for a good closer and Santana is going to be a competitive team. Why would a competitive team be trading a TOR starter?

 

This. No team in a position to trade for a closer (hoping to be in playoffs), is going to give up a TOR. It is illogical. You can trade your closer for a haul of prospects, but you might as well wait until trading deadline.

[brewerfan82]

It'd have to be a pretty big package, but if the right deal was there, I'd do it. So many relievers are so unstable from year to year, if you get a Thornburg for Shaw/Dubon/Pennington/Coca type deal but with even better talent coming back, it'd be hard to turn down.

[FVBrewerFan]

Not the right time.

Pretty much this. If the team is underperforming near the break and Knebel is lights out again then it could get interesting.

 

Yea, I was advocating trading him and others in the off-season. But now that they have made (and likely making more moves) to compete, it doesn't make much sense to trade him now.

 

But I agree, if things go south this year I think Knebel will be on the trading block at the trade deadline. (Unless he's part of the reason they went south, of course.) If he puts up numbers even similar to last year he will have massive value, because he has proven he's not a one year wonder.

[MrTPlush]

Feliz cost them a playoff berth in 2017 and someone suggests they should unload one of the top closers in the game right now?

 

Yup, weird how that works.

 

The goal is to win a World Series and some people want to unload one of the biggest pieces to a postseason run. Deep bullpens and elite arms can make you a happy person come October.

 

You have to take risks to win it all. We are competing and need to keep our guys no matter what, essentially. He could regress, as could Shaw, Thames, Cain, Anderson, Nelson, etc. If you are honestly trying to win a World Series trading Knebel is pretty darn stupid. Not like we have time to replace him via FA anymore.

[Brew Crew Buster]

You could sign Holland and trade Knebel? If you can sign Holland for somewhere near 2 years at $27M it could make sense depending upon what you get for Knebel.

 

As folks have mentioned it is likely not a top of the rotation pitcher but if you could get two top 100 prospects for him it might be worth it.

 

This would be an extending the window of competitiveness type of move to try to assure that the Brewers are a play off team through 2024 or 2025.

 

Now it is important to do this in the right order: First you trade Knebel THEN you sign Holland. We have seen that it doesn't work so well if you try to do it the in the reverse order (Domingo Santana).

[Boomer5]

If the object is to win games, our two most important players are Knebel and Hader and it's not particularly close.

 

You'd only trade him in July if the team is not in contention.

[brewerfan82]

Now it is important to do this in the right order: First you trade Knebel THEN you sign Holland. We have seen that it doesn't work so well if you try to do it the in the reverse order (Domingo Santana).

I'd argue "not working out well" would be trading Knebel and then not being able to sign Holland. Signing Holland and then not being able to find a trade partner for Knebel would just leave you as a better team. And I don't agree that a player's trade value decreases based solely on "leverage". If a team is willing to give up package X before adding depth, then they'll be willing to give up package X after you add depth, that doesn't change their assessment of what they're willing to give up to get a player and if they just want to hold out and "screw you over" at that point, they don't get the player they wanted.

[brewcrewdue80]

Said this elsewhere where Knebel was included in a horrible trade idea. This team is trying to compete, not rebuild. The Ken Giles trade happened while Philly was and remains in a decade long rebuild. You don't make such a move. If you did, you are acquiring a TOR top 20 prospect which is: Ohtani, Whitley, Kopech, Buehler, Keller, Reyes, Honeywell and Gore via MLB.com.

 

Plus a RP or toolsy position player. Based on where that group is at(you'd want someone to add to the team this season) Gore would be out. Reyes after TJ and a Cardinal would be out. Keller for Pittsburgh would be out. Ohtani has to be out.

#1 would likely be Buehler.

After that it gets hard to believe.

2-Whitley. Only Houston has Giles they've made this trade already and are losing SP after this year

3-Kopech. Boston needs him more than they do Kneble having Kimbrel

4-Honeywell-Tampa breeds these pitchers for the future not trade them for the current in 3 years maybe?

 

 

So you go down the line a little further

Triston McKenzie would make sense, though I think his floor is too risky.

 

And my best fit is simply Atlanta who has a ton of SPs to offer up and not the Craig Kimbrel/Kneble closer anymore. Look out for that future matchup as Atlanta graduates more of their studs and competes and decides to move forward in competing.

 

Either way you look at it, there isn't a fit now with a Kneble trade. Cleveland being the best option for reality.

 

I have a hard time wanting to move a guy with 4 years of control when you can trade him for same or even better value a year or two from now. Making this team worse for a future better SP, just a move fans will question. We are an 84.5 win Vegas team and Kneble probably adds 3 wins if not 4. Moving him drops us to below a .500 team which with 6OF and lost Closer makes you question what are we doing?

[A Swing and A Drive]

Knebel is simply not going to be traded this offseason. This is NOT fantasy baseball.

[coolhandluke121]

Knebel currently lacks the control to duplicate what he did last year and is a pretty solid bet to regress. I'm pretty sure he's projected to have an e.r.a. of about 3.5 but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. In any case, it's kind of silly to talk about him as if you'd be giving away a great closer; there's a very good chance he's not even one of the 3 or 4 best relievers on the team this year. Barnes or Williams could easily be this year's Knebel. Making personnel decisions is all about being better than your rivals at predicting performance.

 

Any Average Joe can say "Look at what he did last year; no way you trade him!" But if everyone's productivity was already known in advance, the standings would be the same as the rankings of what teams can afford to pay their players. Despite all the complaints about being a small market, many of which are justified, places like this are where they can beat the big markets by regularly out-"guessing" them. And I put that in quotation marks because it's not really about guesswork, so much as it is about regularly playing the odds. You'll win some trades and lose others, but in the end you'll come out way ahead if you're patient and disciplined. That's exactly what got them 86 wins and all the excitement about this season that goes with it, so I don't understand why anyone would be close-minded about similar moves. It's often not even a step back just a few months later. Look at what selling high on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress got them. Look at how Lucroy's and Gomez's replacements were better than they were just a half a season later. And conversely, look what failing to sell high on Villar and Guerra got them. All those actual or proposed trades would have been seen as giving up on the season, and yet all of the ones that happened fetched at least one player (and sometimes more) who ended up much better than the guy who was traded away. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the could trade Knebel for two bullpen prospects who are better and cheaper than Knebel some time in 2019, and maybe even sooner.

 

All that said, they wouldn't get the kind of offer people here might think they would because other teams know how hard it's going to be for Knebel to duplicate his success. Control can improve, but he doesn't project to be an elite reliever in the long term as it stands right now. If they got an offer worthy of the season he just had, the Brewers would be fools to keep him, but that's probably a moot point.

[KeithStone53151]

Knebel is simply not going to be traded this offseason. This is NOT fantasy baseball.

 

Right. I mean I guess you can play the game of "If the Angels called offering Mike Trout..." if you really want...but trading Knebel can't be a remotely serious transaction proposal.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Knebel currently lacks the control to duplicate what he did last year and is a pretty solid bet to regress. I'm pretty sure he's projected to have an e.r.a. of about 3.5 but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. In any case, it's kind of silly to talk about him as if you'd be giving away a great closer; there's a very good chance he's not even one of the 3 or 4 best relievers on the team this year. Barnes or Williams could easily be this year's Knebel. Making personnel decisions is all about being better than your rivals at predicting performance.

 

Any Average Joe can say "Look at what he did last year; no way you trade him!" But if everyone's productivity was already known in advance, the standings would be the same as the rankings of what teams can afford to pay their players. Despite all the complaints about being a small market, many of which are justified, places like this are where they can beat the big markets by regularly out-"guessing" them. And I put that in quotation marks because it's not really about guesswork, so much as it is about regularly playing the odds. You'll win some trades and lose others, but in the end you'll come out way ahead if you're patient and disciplined. That's exactly what got them 86 wins and all the excitement about this season that goes with it, so I don't understand why anyone would be close-minded about similar moves. It's often not even a step back just a few months later. Look at what selling high on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress got them. Look at how Lucroy's and Gomez's replacements were better than they were just a half a season later. And conversely, look what failing to sell high on Villar and Guerra got them. All those actual or proposed trades would have been seen as giving up on the season, and yet all of the ones that happened fetched at least one player (and sometimes more) who ended up much better than the guy who was traded away. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the could trade Knebel for two bullpen prospects who are better and cheaper than Knebel some time in 2019, and maybe even sooner.

 

All that said, they wouldn't get the kind of offer people here might think they would because other teams know how hard it's going to be for Knebel to duplicate his success. Control can improve, but he doesn't project to be an elite reliever in the long term as it stands right now. If they got an offer worthy of the season he just had, the Brewers would be fools to keep him, but that's probably a moot point.

 

I don't disagree with your overall assessment of "trading high" on a player at peak value.

 

But I'll make two points:

 

1. I think you are vastly underrating Knebel. He's a much better pitcher than Barnes or Williams will ever be, IMO.

2. If the Brewers were still rebuilding like the Phillies were when they traded Giles, this makes perfect sense to trade a top notch closer at peak value. I simply don't feel that the Brewers are on that stage of their rebuiild anymore and Stearns acquisitions of Yelich and Cain I think signal that as well.