Inevitable Trade of an OF?

[brewcrewdue80]

That List is stated on a 600 AB all things being equal. Braun gets more SBs, HRs, RBIs then likely than Votto with him winning on runs. These type of numbers crunching for Fantasy purposes can help find underappreciated bats vs a guy like Aaron Judge will be this year. (Judge, Arenado, then Santana) 1 will be a top 2 round pick the other a 10th round pick. Votto to Braun Judge to Santana. Altuve gets hurt so bad by this list.

 

Just remember its a ranking to fantasy and not real life.

 

I can't find it, but someone said play a Platoon with Braun/Thames. Thames is on the batter side for a platoon where he'd then likely have 120 starts vs RHP vs. Braun 42 vs LHP. May even be less for Braun.

[clancyphile]

With the DH and Braun at first, here's what I worked out a bit:

Just in the outfield, with 162 games, and three OF positions, each of Braun-Santana-Yelich-Cain could get 121 starts ina "rotation system, with two games left over. Plus, there are games at AL Parks - 2 at KC, 3 at Minnesota, 2 at Cleveland, 3 at the White Sox.

 

On those ten games, all four play, no sweat.

 

So, it's really 152 games, each with three outfielders. Which, if divided equally, means 114 starts in the OF, plus the 10 DH games that all four play.

 

If Thames can give the Crew 125 starts at first, that leaves 27 non-DH games where Braun plays first, and all of Santana-Yelich-Cain play OF. So, we have 93 "rotation" starts for each, plus 10 DH games, plus 27 "Thames sits" games. That comes to 130 starts for each, plus three games left over.

 

Think about it: Braun splits between LF (93), DH (10), and 1B (27), Yelich between CF (61) and LF (69), Cain between CF (101) and RF (32), and Santana in RF (130).

 

Now, if the Crew really wants to, they could hold on to Aguilar and go with a seven-man bullpen.

[badger3034]

Thanks for the insight on the potential for the games for position, I wouldn't have had that much motivation haha. Even in that scenario, I'd still rather run an 8 man bullpen. That's just going to open a door for Braun to get less playing time. If he's healthy, you want him playing as much as possible

[FVBrewerFan]

Strong arm in RF is a big deal, it also cuts down on tag-ups from 2B. Nobody ever said Yelich couldn't play RF, heck so could Khris Davis. But it's not ideal. Yelich would be better than Santana in RF btw, simply because he can, you know, catch the ball.

[badger3034]

Strong arm in RF is a big deal, it also cuts down on tag-ups from 2B. Nobody ever said Yelich couldn't play RF, heck so could Khris Davis. But it's not ideal. Yelich would be better than Santana in RF btw, simply because he can, you know, catch the ball.

 

Need a trade partner for Santana first

[coolhandluke121]

Honestly Braun for Kemp + prospects makes the most sense. You can keep Yelich in LF full time with Santana in RF and Phillips covering all over the outfield, particularly as a defensive sub for Santana. Aguilar can stay, too - not that I like him, but I'd rather have Aguilar + prospects than have Braun in an awkward platoon with Thames, who's better against RHP's and should get more starts than Braun anyway.

 

Then when everyone blows all their cash on next year's free agents, the Brewers will have another huge contract off the books for another spending spree after 2019, at a time when many of their best young players and prospects should be entering their primes or close to it. I would just cut Kemp. His contract does end one year earlier than Braun's, which makes it palatable. And it makes plenty of sense for the Dodgers too. Let them have their day; they won't be on top forever, and a move like this just helps the Brewers position themselves to be better than the Dodgers in a few years.

[McRibMcLove]

Braun for Bellinger and Seager makes the most sense to ME, but I doubt the dodgers would entertain that, just as they aren't inclined to take on more salary to dump their salary and have the pleasure of adding in prospects. Now if you propose to them Braun for Kemp and 2 prospects you are releasing anyways, you might get the dodgers attention. Giving away Braun to save $16M is not likely going to benefit the Brewers in the short term and depending on the long-term maybe not either. If the aim is to jettison Braun at any cost, then wait until the August waiver period where most players are put on revocable waivers and pray some playoff contender really needs Brauns bat and claims him so you can waive goodbye.

[Mr Southpaw]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

I think it comes into play far more than you might think and has as much to do with the threat of a throw as an actual throw. Some scenarios where the advantage comes in will never be a stat that is tracked either.

 

It is harder for a runner on 1st to advance to 3rd on a single to left field because the throw from left, typically, will be shorter. A fair number of singles to right field, however, with a good to great baserunner, allow for a 2 base advancement. Having a right fielder with an above average arm, if nothing else, makes the 3rd base coach a touch more hesitant to bring his guy to 3rd on a single to right. If Yelich is in RF, the game plan will be that runners have the green light to take 2 bases on virtually every single to right field because Yelich will need a few things to go right for him to make a play. If it is someone with a better arm, the game plan may very well be "pick up your 3rd base coach as soon as the ball clears the infield" and if that 3rd base coach has any hesitation in his decision ... the guy will be held.

 

Never a stat that will be tracked. But having an arm in RF will save runs. Mentally note to yourself who our RF is every game this year and watch how runners treat him if/when going from 1st to 3rd on a single. I'm willing to bet only the top flight guys (think Billy Hamilton) will test Brett Phillips if Phillips' momentum is coming forward. I'm willing to bet any non catcher or 1b will be on the move if Yelich is out there, all other things equal.

 

I saw Phillips play in Chattanooga a couple of years ago and he caught a ball on the edge of the warning track in straight away center field with no body movement forward. he took two steps and threw a dart to 3rd base as the runner tied to advance. The throw had one bounce and even though the runner was safe, it had to be the longest , most accurate throw I have ever seen in my life. He is your right fielder for the future, period. Santana can go, Braun can go, but Phillips needs to stay.

[FVBrewerFan]

If throwing was the only skill needed, I would agree with you.

[coolhandluke121]

Braun for Bellinger and Seager makes the most sense to ME, but I doubt the dodgers would entertain that, just as they aren't inclined to take on more salary to dump their salary and have the pleasure of adding in prospects. Now if you propose to them Braun for Kemp and 2 prospects you are releasing anyways, you might get the dodgers attention. Giving away Braun to save $16M is not likely going to benefit the Brewers in the short term and depending on the long-term maybe not either. If the aim is to jettison Braun at any cost, then wait until the August waiver period where most players are put on revocable waivers and pray some playoff contender really needs Brauns bat and claims him so you can waive goodbye.

 

It wouldn't take half the value of a Bellinger or a Seager, let alone both of them, to be more than fair for the Brewers. And you can't trade Braun at the waiver deadline unless it's to the Dodgers, because he has said he won't go anywhere else and he has a no-trade clause.

 

It's actually almost miraculous that there's a conceivable way to get something for Braun in a trade. The only team he would waive his no-trade clause for needs a left-fielder and needs to shave a few million in salary to get under the luxury tax, even if it means adding an extra year on a questionable contract. And the Brewers need to clear up a logjam. Both teams would be fools to look the gift horse in the mouth and hold out for a better deal. How else can the Dodgers get rid of Kemp's salary and get a big upgrade? How else can the Brewers get something for Braun and clear up the logjam at 1B and the outfield in one fell swoop?

 

Not to mention avoiding another Hart/Weeks/Ramirez/Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Garza/Lohse situation where you keep a guy too long until he has negative value on his contract, which was the defining behavior of the last regime. Making trades like this is what made them successful last year in the first place. It's foolish to act like they need Braun to be successful; if anything, it's more likely that they need to open up playing time for young guys at or near their prime like Phillips, Broxton, Perez, and Aguilar.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It wouldn't take half the value of a Bellinger or a Seager, let alone both of them, to be more than fair for the Brewers. And you can't trade Braun at the waiver deadline unless it's to the Dodgers, because he has said he won't go anywhere else and he has a no-trade clause.

 

It's actually almost miraculous that there's a conceivable way to get something for Braun in a trade. The only team he would waive his no-trade clause for needs a left-fielder and needs to shave a few million in salary to get under the luxury tax, even if it means adding an extra year on a questionable contract. And the Brewers need to clear up a logjam. Both teams would be fools to look the gift horse in the mouth and hold out for a better deal. How else can the Dodgers get rid of Kemp's salary and get a big upgrade? How else can the Brewers get something for Braun and clear up the logjam at 1B and the outfield in one fell swoop?

 

That would clear up a lot of the roster issues this team is facing. I do wonder if they would just dump Kemp outright after that deal, though? I would hate to see them turn around and have to surrender prospects to get out from under that contract. Is there another high-salary player out there at more of a position of need for the Brewers that they might be able to flip Kemp for? Kipnis maybe?

 

The Brewers would be doing the Dodgers a huge favor by taking on Kemp's contract as well. The Dodgers would have to add some pretty substantial value to make it work. Not Bellinger or Seager, obviously, but maybe a higher end pitching prospect or something along those lines.

[TJseven7]

Braun for Bellinger and Seager makes the most sense to ME, but I doubt the dodgers would entertain that, just as they aren't inclined to take on more salary to dump their salary and have the pleasure of adding in prospects. Now if you propose to them Braun for Kemp and 2 prospects you are releasing anyways, you might get the dodgers attention. Giving away Braun to save $16M is not likely going to benefit the Brewers in the short term and depending on the long-term maybe not either. If the aim is to jettison Braun at any cost, then wait until the August waiver period where most players are put on revocable waivers and pray some playoff contender really needs Brauns bat and claims him so you can waive goodbye.

 

I don't get how you think braun who is worth some of his 56mil owed is worse than kemp who is worth none of the 43 mil he is owed. Nobody want that kemp deal. Its lighting 43 mil on fire. Brauns worth more than the 13 mil differenxe over the next 3. I'd argue by at least 11 mil if not more.

 

Basically you have two options. Get nothing for the $20 in your hand or get a $15 hat for the $25 in your other hand. You just hand over the $20?

[superfly]

Braun for Bellinger and Seager makes the most sense to ME, but I doubt the dodgers would entertain that, just as they aren't inclined to take on more salary to dump their salary and have the pleasure of adding in prospects. Now if you propose to them Braun for Kemp and 2 prospects you are releasing anyways, you might get the dodgers attention. Giving away Braun to save $16M is not likely going to benefit the Brewers in the short term and depending on the long-term maybe not either. If the aim is to jettison Braun at any cost, then wait until the August waiver period where most players are put on revocable waivers and pray some playoff contender really needs Brauns bat and claims him so you can waive goodbye.

 

Sure, lets ask for Kershaw and Joc too while we're at it.

[coolhandluke121]

It wouldn't take half the value of a Bellinger or a Seager, let alone both of them, to be more than fair for the Brewers. And you can't trade Braun at the waiver deadline unless it's to the Dodgers, because he has said he won't go anywhere else and he has a no-trade clause.

 

It's actually almost miraculous that there's a conceivable way to get something for Braun in a trade. The only team he would waive his no-trade clause for needs a left-fielder and needs to shave a few million in salary to get under the luxury tax, even if it means adding an extra year on a questionable contract. And the Brewers need to clear up a logjam. Both teams would be fools to look the gift horse in the mouth and hold out for a better deal. How else can the Dodgers get rid of Kemp's salary and get a big upgrade? How else can the Brewers get something for Braun and clear up the logjam at 1B and the outfield in one fell swoop?

 

That would clear up a lot of the roster issues this team is facing. I do wonder if they would just dump Kemp outright after that deal, though? I would hate to see them turn around and have to surrender prospects to get out from under that contract. Is there another high-salary player out there at more of a position of need for the Brewers that they might be able to flip Kemp for? Kipnis maybe?

 

The Brewers would be doing the Dodgers a huge favor by taking on Kemp's contract as well. The Dodgers would have to add some pretty substantial value to make it work. Not Bellinger or Seager, obviously, but maybe a higher end pitching prospect or something along those lines.

 

Definitely cut Kemp. It would be about the prospects. I'm trying really hard to just ignore the people who say "but Braun is better than Kemp and Kemp is a bad contract!" When people aren't even willing to engage with the nuances of a situation, it's difficult to talk to them.

 

The hard part would obviously be getting a little worse this year, but I think they can afford to lose Braun. The benefits of a prospect or two (not gonna pretend I know LAD's system very well but I'm sure it's worth their while to give up legit prospect value in a deal like this) and a ton of payroll flexibility after the 2019 season outweigh the loss of Braun IMO. You keep Aguilar as the RHB 1B and have Phillips as the only 4th outfielder, and you aren't forced into a Santana trade until you find one you like.

 

You would be tacitly acknowledging that you're a few years away from consistently being a true contender, but they'd still have money for a couple short-term free agents and would still be squarely in the hunt for a wild card.

[And That]

RF arm strength is also more important than LF because typically the cut-off man from RF is the second baseman, and the second baseman usually has the weakest arm on the infield. The closer to the infield the 2B can relay the throw, the better. On the other hand, the shortstop often has the best arm on the field, which gives the leftfielder more leeway to make a shorter throw.

 

Anecdotally, just in yesterday's game the Reds' RF had a throw that rolled into second base, which allowed Arcia to score. Had the throw been even on one hop, Arcia may well have been out at the plate. And had the throw come in from left, the SS probably cuts it off and nails Arcia.

[sveumrules]

That's outs though, not necessarily plays, correct? Opportunities are based on plays. My hypothesis is that there are less putouts because balls are hit harder to LF (RH pull hitters).

 

Correct. I looked up putouts because it was the easiest to find. Digging a little deeper I found this FG article by Travis Sawchick examining which positions have seen their opportunities decrease the most with the increase in strikeouts...

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/where-defensive-opportunities-have-declined-most/

 

From his data it looks like RF consistently have more opportunities than LF which makes sense intuitively since ground balls have a higher likelihood of being pulled, fly balls have a higher likelihood of being hit to the opposite field & most batters are RH.

 

Pulled fly balls do tend to have a higher exit velocity than flyballs hit to the opposite field so your hypothesis likely does factor into why LFs record fewer POs than RFs as LFs have both fewer opportunities & more difficult opportunities.

[Mays Hayes]

You absolutely need your RF to be able to cut down runners at 3B. A weak armed RF gets abused by runners constantly taking that extra base,

[clancyphile]

The crew doesn't have to make any move. The only loss they seem to be staring in the face is Aguilar - and even then, going to a seven-man pen would reduce that risk.

 

But if the Crew can find a low-level prospect or three for Aguilar, that's perfect.

 

Seattle needs a DH/1B who bats right-handed. Aguilar fills that need for them. Say the Crew gets LHP Matt Clancy, LHP JP Sears, and RHP Seth Elledge in return.

[3and2Fastball]

3 pitchers for Aguillar? I'm not familiar with those guys, are they low level prospects?

[wallus]

Has there been any studies done on outfield defense? I would be curious to know how many more hits are allowed from a poor right fielder versus an average one or a great one?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You absolutely need your RF to be able to cut down runners at 3B. A weak armed RF gets abused by runners constantly taking that extra base,

 

At least Santana does have a strong arm in RF. It isn't Phillips-strong, but he does have that ability ... fielding the ball, on the other hand ...

 

Santana is a good athlete, and he is young enough to potentially improve in the OF, as long as he doesn't bulk up too much. Having terrific defensive outfielders in Yelich and Cain out there would mask some of Santana's shortcomings as well. While I'm still in favor of trading him if the return is there, I am warming to the idea of seeing if he can stay healthy and replicate what he did last year.

 

I am still waiting to see how they are going to clear up this positional traffic jam, though.

[pacopete4]

You absolutely need your RF to be able to cut down runners at 3B. A weak armed RF gets abused by runners constantly taking that extra base,

 

At least Santana does have a strong arm in RF. It isn't Phillips-strong, but he does have that ability ... fielding the ball, on the other hand ...

 

Santana is a good athlete, and he is young enough to potentially improve in the OF, as long as he doesn't bulk up too much. Having terrific defensive outfielders in Yelich and Cain out there would mask some of Santana's shortcomings as well. While I'm still in favor of trading him if the return is there, I am warming to the idea of seeing if he can stay healthy and replicate what he did last year.

 

I am still waiting to see how they are going to clear up this positional traffic jam, though.

 

How much faster does Yelich get to a ball versus Santana. It isn't all about arm strength although that is a plus. If Yelich gets to a ball quicker and gets rid of it quicker, he would be fine in RF. If he doesn't, then Santana's arm strength is a plus over there. But he is slow to just about every ball and a lot of the times he ends up misplaying them. So what good does arm strength do for you then? I would rather have the sure fielder.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I am still waiting to see how they are going to clear up this positional traffic jam, though.

 

It will most likely get cleared up by the end of Spring training, and even if it doesn't the Brewers aren't out on a plank and forced to do something yet. No point in making a marginal move/trade to balance out the roster now, make sure all these guys are healthy for your own benefit going into the season - if one gets hurt you have obvious depth and can prolong a roster move beyond April 1. If they all stay healthy, there will inevitably be teams looking for a corner OF/corner IF option that can also DH to either fill a MLB roster gap of their own caused by injury, or to upgrade a roster spot while keeping a better prospect option who isn't quite ready down in the minors to start the year.

 

IF Braun proves to be serviceable at 1B, then Aguilar will be moved, ideally for something that looks like the Lind package a few years ago. I also think they could make no moves before opening day and sort out the roster at some point between then and the deadline with a trade for pitching.

 

Santana's bat is valuable enough to the Brewers to not just trade him off for anything just because they have a pile of corner OF options that are much better defensively. It's a shame he can't play 1st, though...

[FVBrewerFan]

How much faster does Yelich get to a ball versus Santana. It isn't all about arm strength although that is a plus. If Yelich gets to a ball quicker and gets rid of it quicker, he would be fine in RF. If he doesn't, then Santana's arm strength is a plus over there. But he is slow to just about every ball and a lot of the times he ends up misplaying them. So what good does arm strength do for you then? I would rather have the sure fielder.

 

I would tend to agree with you, although I would like to see Yelich's arm in RF before making any final judgment. But yea, I would have to believe Yelich is probably a better RF than Santana overall. But the real issue is that Yelich is elite in LF, just average in RF. That's why ideal scenario would be Phillips in RF. Hopefully we'll see that in the not too distant future when the logjam is cleared and Phillips shows his bat can play.

 

I wouldn't mind Braun in RF again, he has a good arm. But I think they feel teaching him how to play 1B is enough of a challenge, without asking him to get comfortable in RF again at the same time.

[adambr2]

Yelich is definitely least suited to play RF of any OF position. He could probably pass there, although his arm is definitely going to reduce his effectiveness.

 

You don't make a blockbuster trade for a stud like Yelich, based partially on his defensive value, to put him in a position where his defensive value is average at best.

 

My bet is Yelich will play in LF everyday except when Cain is off in which case Yelich will usually slide over to CF. Don't see him in RF at all.