Inevitable Trade of an OF?

[DR28]

So we're gonna sit our best players for between 15 to 40 games this year?

 

Yelich would be sit for 16

Cain/Santana for 26

Braun for 42

[And That]

Yelich's arm would be a pretty big liability in RF. Then again, unlike Santana he'd actually be able to get to and catch the ball.

[3and2Fastball]

Yelich's arm would be a pretty big liability in RF. Then again, unlike Santana he'd actually be able to get to and catch the ball.

 

And then you put a well below average Ryan Braun in LF, decreasing the defensive potential in two positions? This ain't Doug Melvin's Brewers

[Never Outhustled]

So we're gonna sit our best players for between 15 to 40 games this year?

 

Yelich would be sit for 16

Cain/Santana for 26

Braun for 42

 

Pretty much, Yelich will get extra starts in LF in games with the DH. Braun likely won't get 120 starts, that's significantly more than last year. The 5th OF will get some starts too.

[FVBrewerFan]

So we're gonna sit our best players for between 15 to 40 games this year?

 

Yelich would be sit for 16

Cain/Santana for 26

Braun for 42

 

Yes, except things almost never go according to plan. This would be the plan if all five players are healthy the entire season. That's not likely to happen. That said, if it does work out this way that's the way it goes. I rather do it this way than give away Santana for far less than what he's "worth" just to make things easier to manage.

[Outlander]

Regarding the statement Braun is just stating the truth. He knows he will be on the team so where he plays and how often depends on what the Brewers do with Aguilar/Thames/Santana/Phillips. Until that is cleared up no reason to ruffle feathers with any of his current teammates.

[McRibMcLove]

I didn’t like the Kemp for Braun rumors because there wasn’t a clear prospect coming back that would make that deal valuable (since kemp is basically no value). However, most of Braun’s value for the remainder of his contract is likely going to come this season as a full time player or in a platoon role. There’s no clear platoon partner in the OF, but a perfect platoon partner at 1B. The way this should play out is that Braun splits time with Thames at 1B and DH, Aguilar is either let go or goes down to Colorado Springs as a backup. Santana, Cain, Yelich take a vast majority of the OF ABs and there is no extra OF issue.

 

I’m sure Stearns doesn’t see value yet in any proposals so we will hold onto Santana. I see Braun’s comments only as a good teammate who doesn’t want to say he’s taking over 1B from 2 players who combined were very good last year. I am sure Braun will spend a lot of time at 1B this spring/year and it will be due to management’s decision, not Braun’s.

[pacopete4]

This is another one of those issues that I think we make more out of than Stearns/Counsell are right now. If Santana is still on this team opening day, they'll make it work.

[sveumrules]

So we're gonna sit our best players for between 15 to 40 games this year?

 

Yelich would be sit for 16

Cain/Santana for 26

Braun for 42

 

That would be my plan with good health & no trades. That way Thames would never start against a LHP. Cain (32 year old CF) & Santana (sub optimal defender) get one day off per week to hopefully stay fresh throughout the season & exploit favorable match ups. Even when Braun's healthy he's hurt so I think 120 games is a good target. The Brewers also have 10 DH games this year so that could get Yelich up to 156 by DHing Braun/Santana & giving Yelich their OF starts in those games.

[jerichoholicninja]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

[liveforoctober]

Why are the Brewers coddling Braun? He is a declining talent who gets hurt every year. It wouldn't shock me to see Santana out produce Braun every year over the next 5 years.

 

Brian Anderson actually opened today's telecast saying that "the biggest news of the offseason" is Braun moving to first base. Seriously? Not trading for Yelich or signing Cain. Braun playing 1B is the biggest news?

 

Yes if the return on Santana helps the franchise, sure, trade him. I get that Braun won the 2011 MVP, but that was 7 very long seasons ago.

 

Braun received MVP votes 2 seasons ago when he played in 135 games .305/.365/.538 - OPS .903

 

He needs to be healthy ... but when healthy he is still our best pure hitter (Yelich now pending).

[Warning Track Power]

He needs to be healthy ... but when healthy he is still our best pure hitter (Yelich now pending).

 

 

Todd Zola is a fantasy baseball writer but I definitely found this tweet worth mentioning. Everyone has an opinion but Braun being 3rd best hitter in baseball if all things are equal is fun.

[DR28]

He needs to be healthy ... but when healthy he is still our best pure hitter (Yelich now pending).

 

 

Todd Zola is a fantasy baseball writer but I definitely found this tweet worth mentioning. Everyone has an opinion but Braun being 3rd best hitter in baseball if all things are equal is fun.

 

Definitely agree with that list.

 

Braun and Yelich will make our offense go... They need to be 2(Yelich) & 3(Braun) in our lineup.

[tmwiese55]

Why are the Brewers coddling Braun? He is a declining talent who gets hurt every year. It wouldn't shock me to see Santana out produce Braun every year over the next 5 years.

 

Brian Anderson actually opened today's telecast saying that "the biggest news of the offseason" is Braun moving to first base. Seriously? Not trading for Yelich or signing Cain. Braun playing 1B is the biggest news?

 

Yes if the return on Santana helps the franchise, sure, trade him. I get that Braun won the 2011 MVP, but that was 7 very long seasons ago.

 

Braun received MVP votes 2 seasons ago when he played in 135 games .305/.365/.538 - OPS .903

 

He needs to be healthy ... but when healthy he is still our best pure hitter (Yelich now pending).

 

Was about to post the exact same thing. When healthy he is their best hitter and only two seasons ago he basically was healthy for most of the year. Yet the talk is as if he's a complete liability.

 

I know there's all the Kemp talk but I'd rather just keep Braun. Kemp basically sucks at this point, if you're paying one I'd rather it be the one who's actually good when he's healthy

[pacopete4]

There are certain guys I will always make sure I am in my seat to watch hit a baseball. Ryan Braun is one of those guys. I get it. Trust me I get it. He needs to be more dependable in the lineup and I hope he is. But if he can figure out how to stay relatively healthy, he is a huge bat for us to have. And now from what I have seen from Yelich, he will be another one that I will want to be in my seat to watch swing a bat. So smooth. Effortless. Should be fun to watch these two plus Cain go at it for awhile.

[coolhandluke121]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

I agree to an extent, but it is more important in RF because there are many more situations where you have to throw to 3b from the outfield. Last time I checked, you don't have to keep a runner from taking an extra base by going from 3b to 1b, though Jean Segura might have something to say about that. There's also the question of tagging up and getting to 3b on a fly ball, which is not much of an issue of flies to LF.

 

You're right that throws home are the most important, and there's slightly more of those in LF than RF. Then again, there's much better relay options at SS and 3B. This is a situation where I'm willing to challenge dogma a little, but I suspect the dogma holds up to scrutiny better than some other maxims.

[shanedog19]

I really wish it was Braun we were trading but in all reality it will be Santana I bet.

[sveumrules]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

Putouts in LF have ended up between 8512 & 9020 over the last five compared to 9401 & 9771 over the last five years for RF putouts, so it looks like there are typically more opportunities in RF.

[LouisEly]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

Putouts in LF have ended up between 8512 & 9020 over the last five compared to 9401 & 9771 over the last five years for RF putouts, so it looks like there are typically more opportunities in RF.

That's outs though, not necessarily plays, correct? Opportunities are based on plays. My hypothesis is that there are less putouts because balls are hit harder to LF (RH pull hitters).

[liveforoctober]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

I think it comes into play far more than you might think and has as much to do with the threat of a throw as an actual throw. Some scenarios where the advantage comes in will never be a stat that is tracked either.

 

It is harder for a runner on 1st to advance to 3rd on a single to left field because the throw from left, typically, will be shorter. A fair number of singles to right field, however, with a good to great baserunner, allow for a 2 base advancement. Having a right fielder with an above average arm, if nothing else, makes the 3rd base coach a touch more hesitant to bring his guy to 3rd on a single to right. If Yelich is in RF, the game plan will be that runners have the green light to take 2 bases on virtually every single to right field because Yelich will need a few things to go right for him to make a play. If it is someone with a better arm, the game plan may very well be "pick up your 3rd base coach as soon as the ball clears the infield" and if that 3rd base coach has any hesitation in his decision ... the guy will be held.

 

Never a stat that will be tracked. But having an arm in RF will save runs. Mentally note to yourself who our RF is every game this year and watch how runners treat him if/when going from 1st to 3rd on a single. I'm willing to bet only the top flight guys (think Billy Hamilton) will test Brett Phillips if Phillips' momentum is coming forward. I'm willing to bet any non catcher or 1b will be on the move if Yelich is out there, all other things equal.

[nate82]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

Putouts in LF have ended up between 8512 & 9020 over the last five compared to 9401 & 9771 over the last five years for RF putouts, so it looks like there are typically more opportunities in RF.

That's outs though, not necessarily plays, correct? Opportunities are based on plays. My hypothesis is that there are less putouts because balls are hit harder to LF (RH pull hitters).

 

I haven't looked into this too much but here is a spray chart of RH batters and their outcomes the chart on the Left is the last 6 years and the chart on the right is 2016.

 

https://public.tableau.com/shared/J9FPHKQ3C?:display_count=yes

[coolhandluke121]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

Putouts in LF have ended up between 8512 & 9020 over the last five compared to 9401 & 9771 over the last five years for RF putouts, so it looks like there are typically more opportunities in RF.

That's outs though, not necessarily plays, correct? Opportunities are based on plays. My hypothesis is that there are less putouts because balls are hit harder to LF (RH pull hitters).

 

You're correct about putouts not really being a relevant stat, but I'm not sure your hypothesis is even necessary. RF's have more putouts simply because runners occasionally try to advance from 1st to 3rd on singles to RF and try to tag from 2nd to 3rd on fly balls to RF, which they hardly ever do on fly balls to LF. So of course there's more putouts, but also more successful base-runners in those situations.

 

Both LF and RF are roughly the same distance from home, so the LF actually might have more opportunities to throw home because more balls are pulled and there are more right-handed hitters. If you had the numbers to back it up, you could argue that the best arm should be in LF for that reason. However, I'm not sure how many contested plays actually result in a throw all the way home anyway. A halfway decent hard throw to a good relay guy, especially a 3B or SS who probably has a strong, accurate arm, is pretty common too. Is a strong arm in LF enough to negate the advantages of having a good arm in RF to keep guys from getting to 3B in the first place?

 

I like your willingness to challenge the dogma. However, I'm willing to bet that the strong arm in RF argument holds up pretty well under statistical scrutiny. I'm guessing the chances to advance to 3rd, which aren't even close to counterbalanced by situations calling for a throw from LF all the way to 1B, more than outweighs the extra balls hit to LF.

[TURBO]

... if nothing else, makes the 3rd base coach a touch more hesitant to bring his guy to 3rd on a single to right.

 

Unless, of course, that 3B coach's name is Ed "windmill" Sedar.

[jerichoholicninja]

The whole bad arm can't play RF argument is so stupid. The only time it's an issue is on a throw the 3B which happens so infrequently it's not even worth adjusting your whole defense for. I mean really, you shouldn't want a bad arm in LF because a LF is probably going to get more balls hit to him and have more chances where the arm will actually make a difference.

 

Putouts in LF have ended up between 8512 & 9020 over the last five compared to 9401 & 9771 over the last five years for RF putouts, so it looks like there are typically more opportunities in RF.

That's outs though, not necessarily plays, correct? Opportunities are based on plays. My hypothesis is that there are less putouts because balls are hit harder to LF (RH pull hitters).

 

I was going to look those numbers up myself but didn't have time. Either way, unless you're choosing between a canon and a noodle it really doesn't make a difference. Like in our situation of "if Braun is in LF you can't put Yelich in RF because of his arm". Worrying about that is a classic example of over managing.

[danzig6767]

He needs to be healthy ... but when healthy he is still our best pure hitter (Yelich now pending).

 

 

Todd Zola is a fantasy baseball writer but I definitely found this tweet worth mentioning. Everyone has an opinion but Braun being 3rd best hitter in baseball if all things are equal is fun.

 

Definitely agree with that list.

Why?

 

Any list that has Braun ahead of Votto, or Votto 17th isn't worth taking seriously.