2018 MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects

[sveumrules]

Yeah, Ponce had the forearm in 2016 & his shoulder held him out for a few weeks of his draft season in 2015. Agree a 4/5 starter is more valuable than a utility IF so the upside is higher, but Ponce's profile is also riskier.

 

MLB freezes my browser so I can't see where on the list their grade break is, but the difference between 11 & 14 is probably negligible. Fangraphs has both Mauricio & Cody at 45 Future Value. Sickels has Dubon at B-, Ponce at B-/C+.

[adambr2]

Too high for Dubon. The guy's bat will never play at the MLB level. He will be a career bench/defensive switch type player.

 

Have always felt he was severely over rated on this site.

Dubon had a really nice 2016 season - had an OPS of .840. But that has been the outlier - so yes, I agree it's too high. The bat that we saw last year likely won't play as a starter in the majors. As you say, I see him as a utility guy. Nothing wrong with that - I just don't think future utility guys rate that high on the prospect scale.

 

There's still a chance the guy fills in a bit physically and develops a little extra pop, but at age 23, that time is coming quickly. Or perhaps he makes some adjustments at the plate that tap into some more power. I certainly hope so, but I'm not counting on it.

 

Also, any rankings (while obviously being subjective), are a balance of floor and ceiling. Some prospects earn their ranking on a high ceiling and upside, others earn it on a safe MLB floor. The real elite prospects, while still not being a 'sure' thing, have the best of both worlds -- which is part of the reason I think Brett Phillips is underrated as a prospect.

 

Which is a better prospect, the toolsy guy in A ball with above average starter potential, or the guy at the higher levels with a lower ceiling? Its a subjective balance.

 

Dubon, should, at worst have a future in the big leagues as a Cesar Izturis type utility infielder. Which isn't very exciting, but he does have a higher floor than some prospects above him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ponce gets knicked because his delivery is too violent that his control is effected and the RP tag gets pegged to him. Looks like their writeup is he slowed some effort done to improve that control, but a little lighter on velocity. I think there is more upside to him than given. He's improved since drafted, a big body, and that should handle a longer workload 200IP progression. I think of him as a Nelson clone. Who essentially was a #3/4 prospect that exploded last year due to his work ethic. It's actually a little creepy with both being 6'6" and progression at similar age.

The fact that Ponce is learning how to reduce his effort for Control does leave an impression that he will be able to mix his speeds and gas up at times. Throw 92-93 but get 95 if he's looking at blowing a guy away vs. his control. Improve his K rate as a 2 strike effort.

[LouisEly]

My understanding is that the forearm wasn't an injury but that Ponce was shut down for precautionary reasons:

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-ponce-placed-on-disabled-list/c-171232318

[Boomer5]

Melvins trade with Houston just might the best in our franchises history.

[adambr2]

Melvins trade with Houston just might the best in our franchises history.

 

And none of it would have happened if the Mets didn't nix the original trade for Gomez.

[stalton]

Melvins trade with Houston just might the best in our franchises history.

 

And none of it would have happened if the Mets didn't nix the original trade for Gomez.

I actually reread the archived thread from the almost Gomez trade, and it's quite hilarious.

[adambr2]

I've been critical of Melvin at times but he nailed the Gomez trade. In a situation where we had about 24 hours to deal Gomez and everyone knew we wanted to.

 

Imagine how much worse we would be with Wheeler + Flores, minus Hader, Santana, Phillips and Houser.

[liveforoctober]

Low key excited for Harrison to start in Appleton. Hoping he and Lutz at least start there. Would be good to see those two guys hit some bombs before Lutz moves on. Also, Carmona is just a kid - will he be ready for Appleton as well already?

 

It seems hitters jump nicely once they hit Colorado Springs ... so any obvious candidates to make a Brett Phillips-esque ascension in the ranking by getting to AAA?

[TJseven7]

Stokes when he gets there he could have some silly high numbers. I like him but if he gets highly rated I'm selling.

[liveforoctober]

Stokes when he gets there he could have some silly high numbers. I like him but if he gets highly rated I'm selling.

 

.. and that was actually my follow up. If we, as rumored, are going to be looking for a pitcher at the deadline if we are in it .. I'm wondering which guy we could sell high on that is having a monster AAA season. Stokes is a good pull although not for this deadline I don't think?

[TJseven7]

Depends how fast he starts at AA. He could get to AAA in 2 months and put up broxton stuff with +obp. The question is whether or not evaluators but into the size or if they consider it a bloom or a cs inflation.

[clancyphile]

Stokes when he gets there he could have some silly high numbers. I like him but if he gets highly rated I'm selling.

 

.. and that was actually my follow up. If we, as rumored, are going to be looking for a pitcher at the deadline if we are in it .. I'm wondering which guy we could sell high on that is having a monster AAA season. Stokes is a good pull although not for this deadline I don't think?

 

Stokes has quietly developed a good offensive package that reminds me of Yelich.

 

He's got OBP skills and speed - we saw that all through his career. Now, he's added power.

 

While's he's mostly played left, he's been on the same teams as Corey Ray, Monte Harrison, and Trent Grisham, which has generally left him no place on defense than left field. He's had a combined 55 games in CF and RF with no errors, and an assist.

 

If he explodes... I don't trade him. I keep him. I move Broxton, instead. Stokes may not be as flashy, but he's steadier.

[BrewCrewForever]

I've been critical of Melvin at times but he nailed the Gomez trade. In a situation where we had about 24 hours to deal Gomez and everyone knew we wanted to.

 

Imagine how much worse we would be with Wheeler + Flores, minus Hader, Santana, Phillips and Houser.

 

When the Brewers win a World Series thanks in part to Santana, Phillips, Hader and Houser they could do a 30 for 30 on how that failed Mets trade that would have been horrific turned into this tremendous trade which helped propel them to a championship.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I've been critical of Melvin at times but he nailed the Gomez trade. In a situation where we had about 24 hours to deal Gomez and everyone knew we wanted to.

 

Imagine how much worse we would be with Wheeler + Flores, minus Hader, Santana, Phillips and Houser.

 

When the Brewers win a World Series thanks in part to Santana, Phillips, Hader and Houser they could do a 30 for 30 on how that failed Mets trade that would have been horrific turned into this tremendous trade which helped propel them to a championship.

 

Well, Flores would have been a nice fit at 3B, but then the Brewers likely wouldn't have Shaw. That means Thornburg would either still be in the Brewers' pen, or they would have flipped him to another team to shore up a different position.

 

I do have a feeling waiting for Wheeler to get healthy would have gotten very frustrating by now.

[stalton]

I've been critical of Melvin at times but he nailed the Gomez trade. In a situation where we had about 24 hours to deal Gomez and everyone knew we wanted to.

 

Imagine how much worse we would be with Wheeler + Flores, minus Hader, Santana, Phillips and Houser.

 

When the Brewers win a World Series thanks in part to Santana, Phillips, Hader and Houser they could do a 30 for 30 on how that failed Mets trade that would have been horrific turned into this tremendous trade which helped propel them to a championship.

 

Not to derail the topic too much, but these alternate world exercises are interesting to me.

 

On topic, with our seemingly longevity of our core MLB players, that gives the Brewers a relatively long period to evaluate and grow our prospects instead of forcing them to the majors.

[adambr2]

I've been critical of Melvin at times but he nailed the Gomez trade. In a situation where we had about 24 hours to deal Gomez and everyone knew we wanted to.

 

Imagine how much worse we would be with Wheeler + Flores, minus Hader, Santana, Phillips and Houser.

 

When the Brewers win a World Series thanks in part to Santana, Phillips, Hader and Houser they could do a 30 for 30 on how that failed Mets trade that would have been horrific turned into this tremendous trade which helped propel them to a championship.

 

Well, Flores would have been a nice fit at 3B, but then the Brewers likely wouldn't have Shaw. That means Thornburg would either still be in the Brewers' pen, or they would have flipped him to another team to shore up a different position.

 

I do have a feeling waiting for Wheeler to get healthy would have gotten very frustrating by now.

 

Flores as the everyday 3B? That's about as unexciting as Hernan Perez as the everyday guy.

[clancyphile]

That deal sure worked out well...

 

Perez, TBH, did emerge as a very critical member of the bench. I like the versatility. He can play 7 positions on the field reasonably well, he's got an OK bat, honestly, I'd try to extend him for six years at $21 million ($3 million for 2019-2021, $4 million for 2022-2024).

[TJseven7]

I like perez but he's 27... 6 year deal?

[pogokat]

That deal sure worked out well...

 

Perez, TBH, did emerge as a very critical member of the bench. I like the versatility. He can play 7 positions on the field reasonably well, he's got an OK bat, honestly, I'd try to extend him for six years at $21 million ($3 million for 2019-2021, $4 million for 2022-2024).

 

counterpoint: I think Perez is fighting for his roster spot with Aguilar and Broxton. If they bring in Neil Walker or someone like that, or make a trade, Perez is gone.

[Jenkins5]

Think CC & Stearns love Perez & he is pretty safe. He offers enough offense to be productive contributor but fact he can fill in anywhere defensively and play well there is what keeps him a lock. Unless Orf shines far more and steals that role.... he isn’t going anywhere

[brewcrewdue80]

Stokes when he gets there he could have some silly high numbers. I like him but if he gets highly rated I'm selling.

 

.. and that was actually my follow up. If we, as rumored, are going to be looking for a pitcher at the deadline if we are in it .. I'm wondering which guy we could sell high on that is having a monster AAA season. Stokes is a good pull although not for this deadline I don't think?

 

Stokes has quietly developed a good offensive package that reminds me of Yelich.

 

He's got OBP skills and speed - we saw that all through his career. Now, he's added power.

 

While's he's mostly played left, he's been on the same teams as Corey Ray, Monte Harrison, and Trent Grisham, which has generally left him no place on defense than left field. He's had a combined 55 games in CF and RF with no errors, and an assist.

 

If he explodes... I don't trade him. I keep him. I move Broxton, instead. Stokes may not be as flashy, but he's steadier.

 

Or Stokes plays left because it reads he has a noodle arm.

[clancyphile]

I like perez but he's 27... 6 year deal?

 

Yes. He's versatile, and his bat is not a black hole. With this eight-man pen business, he's arguably the cornerstone of the bench.

[TJseven7]

And if the nl adopts the dh in either of the next 2 offseasons it's not as necessary.

And dubon erceg C OF could 4 man the bench easily as early as 2 years from now.

 

You got him 3 years. I like him a lot. If he didn't have the plate discipline of vlad Guerrero I'd love him. But let's take it easy.

[adambr2]

I'm not a real big Perez fan, but I don't deny he's got some value and belongs on the roster mostly thanks to his versatility. I don't think his roster spot is in any danger this year.

 

With that said, he isn't a guy that I would feel any need or desire to go long-term contract with. He seems exactly like the kind of player you go year to year with, keep him around as long as his production warrants it, and then move on.