2018 MLB Pipeline Top 30 Prospects

[jonescm128]

Just released: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=mil

 

1. Hiura

2. Burnes

3. Woodruff

4. Erceg

5. Ortiz

6. Phillips

7. Ray

8. Grisham

9. Lutz

10. Peralta

11. Dubon

12. Diplan

13. Houser

14. Ponce

15. Feliciano

16. Carmona

17. Lemons

18. T. Williams

19. Gatewood

20. Medeiros

21. Harrison

22. Stokes

23. Supak

24. Lopez

25. Z. Brown

26. Rodriguez

27. Nottingham

28. Ward

29. Ernesto

30. Murphy

[MVP2110]

They must love Erceg.

[wallus]

I would rank Grisham well ahead of Ray. After seeing the KATOH report, it is going to take a lot for the Brewers to move Grisham.

[KeithStone53151]

I also noted how high Houser is, that surprised me quite a bit. I like Houser, but that's a silly ranking.

[trwi7]

I also noted how high Houser is, that surprised me quite a bit. I like Houser, but that's a silly ranking.

 

Pretty much everyone has been saying how good Houser has looked since he came back. I haven't seen him but I understand the ranking based on what others have seen.

[jonescm128]

I can't recall if MLB Pipeline does a mid-season update. Does anyone know? I believe they do...

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm equally high on Erceg. Also, I think Triple will be in most people's Top 5 after a big year and Woodruff/Maverick graduate off the list.

[trwi7]

I can't recall if MLB Pipeline does a mid-season update. Does anyone know? I believe they do...

 

Yeah, they wait until after the trade deadline, so sometime in August.

[Outlander]

I also noted how high Houser is, that surprised me quite a bit. I like Houser, but that's a silly ranking.

Houser is ranked 11th by Keith Law at ESPN.

[KeithStone53151]

I also noted how high Houser is, that surprised me quite a bit. I like Houser, but that's a silly ranking.

Houser is ranked 11th by Keith Law at ESPN.

 

I'm wondering if he had one really good bullpen session in instructs or something, it seems crazy to put him so high considering he's 26 and highly likely bullpen bound if he makes it at all.

[trwi7]

I'm wondering if he had one really good bullpen session in instructs or something, it seems crazy to put him so high considering he's 26 and highly likely bullpen bound if he makes it at all.

 

Houser just turned 25 a few weeks ago. This is what Law said about him when he saw him in the AFL this winter.

 

• Right-hander Adrian Houser went to Milwaukee in 2015 in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade, debuted for the Brewers that fall, and then blew out his elbow early the next year, returning late this summer for a few rehab outings. I'd say he's back, and maybe better than before. Houser was 92-95 on Thursday night with a big, tight curveball mostly at 82-83, and his body is slimmer than it was before the surgery. He didn't use a third pitch, although he did have a mid-80s changeup back in 2015.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm wondering if he had one really good bullpen session in instructs or something, it seems crazy to put him so high considering he's 26 and highly likely bullpen bound if he makes it at all.

 

Houser just turned 25 a few weeks ago. This is what Law said about him when he saw him in the AFL this winter.

 

• Right-hander Adrian Houser went to Milwaukee in 2015 in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers trade, debuted for the Brewers that fall, and then blew out his elbow early the next year, returning late this summer for a few rehab outings. I'd say he's back, and maybe better than before. Houser was 92-95 on Thursday night with a big, tight curveball mostly at 82-83, and his body is slimmer than it was before the surgery. He didn't use a third pitch, although he did have a mid-80s changeup back in 2015.

 

Fair enough, but I still think these guys are making assumptions on Houser based on a very small sample of data from instructs and the AFL. He's RH and likely bullpen bound, his arm isn't as elite as Hader's to justify a high rank on being a likely bullpen guy. I think he has a chance to be a solid reliever, maybe a Jacob Barnes type quality middle relief guy...don't see much more than that and definitely can't see justifying a rank even over someone like medeiros.

[TJseven7]

Nice to see Zach on the top 25. Think he's closer to 18-19 by that list but at least they didn't snub him.

 

It's weird to see 3 "failed" (or injury delayed) starters who are already pegged for relief work in the top 30. We have a weird combination of talent.

 

Wonder what we do with Houser Williams and Lopez. Jeffress Albers blocked them this year and possibly next too. Barnes is still on top of the pecking order there. Really isn't room on the mlb roster.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I also noted how high Houser is, that surprised me quite a bit. I like Houser, but that's a silly ranking.

I might not have him that high, but I think it is understandable. Once you get past Peralta, the pitching prospects kind of level out. You could make a case that going off of just a combination of talent and how advanced he is, Houser is the next guy. Circumstances knock him down because of the option situation. He'd probably have to pass at least three of the guys ahead of him to get a starting shot out of spring training in 2019 and thus is probably going to end up in the bullpen. It does seem as if he under other circumstances would have had a better chance of sticking as a starter than Williams or Lopez.

[MadThinker88]

In case it was missed, as the various divisions are being shown, the top 10 farm systems are being held back for individual reveal/ ranking.

Since the Brewers were shown now, they will not be in the top 10 rankings..

 

At this point we know 7 of the top 10 farm systems - Toronto, NYY, Tampa, Philly, Atlanta, ChiSox, & Cinci,

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I’m at spring training now and have watched Hiura take infield work. I just don’t see where they can hide his glove. He was not very good fielding and his arm is not strong at all. Pat Murphy was on his ass.

[TJseven7]

Well thats a buzz kill. We have a lot of LFers. Yelich Braun Santana Grisham, adding Hiura there would be a big shame.

 

Come on NL DH?

[brewcrewdue80]

Love how a guy like Ponce will have 55,55,50,45,50 and that 4th pitch nets him an overall grade to 45. Then a guy like Diplan has 60,60,45,40 and gets 45 grade when control is 40? Another is Supak's: 55,55,50,50 overall 45. So there's your 2 most likely climbers next rankings and your most likely decliner in these rankings...Well there's Ray still clinging on to a top ten he hasn't earned.

[LouisEly]

Fair enough, but I still think these guys are making assumptions on Houser based on a very small sample of data from instructs and the AFL. He's RH and likely bullpen bound, his arm isn't as elite as Hader's to justify a high rank on being a likely bullpen guy. I think he has a chance to be a solid reliever, maybe a Jacob Barnes type quality middle relief guy...don't see much more than that and definitely can't see justifying a rank even over someone like medeiros.

Remember, Houser made the majors at age 22. Medeiros will be 22 next season and will have to make huge strides to get a September callup. We don't even know if Medeiros will start the year in AA.

 

Houser had some sketchy minor league numbers before coming to MIL but he pitched in very hitter-friendly environments (CA League, TX League). Medeiros has similar numbers but pitched in pitcher-friendly environments.

[TURBO]

Too high for Dubon. The guy's bat will never play at the MLB level. He will be a career bench/defensive switch type player.

 

Have always felt he was severely over rated on this site.

[reillymcshane]

Too high for Dubon. The guy's bat will never play at the MLB level. He will be a career bench/defensive switch type player.

 

Have always felt he was severely over rated on this site.

Dubon had a really nice 2016 season - had an OPS of .840. But that has been the outlier - so yes, I agree it's too high. The bat that we saw last year likely won't play as a starter in the majors. As you say, I see him as a utility guy. Nothing wrong with that - I just don't think future utility guys rate that high on the prospect scale.

 

There's still a chance the guy fills in a bit physically and develops a little extra pop, but at age 23, that time is coming quickly. Or perhaps he makes some adjustments at the plate that tap into some more power. I certainly hope so, but I'm not counting on it.

[tigerbrew]

Is Hiura the first ever Brewers top prospect of Asian descent? I think so.

 

His full name is Keston Wee Hing Natsuo Hiura, he has Chinese and Japanese middle names as well as a Japanese last name, looks like his father is Japanese and his mother is Chinese.

[FVBrewerFan]

Too high for Dubon. The guy's bat will never play at the MLB level. He will be a career bench/defensive switch type player.

 

Have always felt he was severely over rated on this site.

 

I never like definitive statements like this. As it stands today, yea, hard to see him as a starter in MLB. But why not as a UT? Also, MLB is filled with guys who had little power in their younger years, and developed more power in their mid 20s. Dubon can hit, and he can take a walk. All that's really missing is power.

[sveumrules]

At number eleven on the list everyone below Dubon has just as many or even more questions. Sure, Mauricio will probably never hit for enough power to be a starter, but with his speed/defensive versatility/contact ability he has a higher floor than just about anyone below him & will very likely make a 25 man roster at some point. Maybe as soon as this year.

 

12. Diplan (short RHP, probably a reliever)

13. Houser (injury issues, likely relief only)

14. Ponce (injury issues)

15. Feliciano (teenager, catchers have the highest bust rate after HS pitchers)

16. Cardona (teenager)

17. Lemons (teenager)

18. T. Williams (injury issues, relief only)

19. Gatewood (nice power, but 1B only w/contact issues)

20. Medeiros (relief only)

21. Harrison (college catcher in rookie ball)

22. Stokes (LOVE Stokes, but he is 5'8" & likely LF only)

23. Supak (possible 4/5 starter)

24. Lopez (likely relief only at this point)

25. Z. Brown (possible 4/5 starter)

26. Rodriguez (teenager)

27. Nottingham (catcher that has trouble catching)

28. Ward (teenager)

29. Ernesto (teenager)

30. Murphy (teenager)

 

It pretty much comes down to how much you weight upside/risk against floor/certainty. At that point on the list almost everyone has a higher ceiling than Dubon, but all come with much higher risk as well.

[LouisEly]

What are Ponce's injury issues? He missed 40% of 2016, but no other time that I am aware of and has not had any major surgeries that I am aware of. I wouldn't call that "injury issues"; lots of guys miss parts of seasons for minor injuries.

 

I'd maybe argue low ceiling, but a #4/5 starter IMO is much more valuable than a backup MI.