Jed Lowrie

[bill hAll Star]

Let's repeat it one more time as we do every time Broxton comes up in trade discussions: Keon Broxton has very, very minimal practical trade value around the league given how we value him.

 

Competing teams before the season can pay $3 million for 1 year of Jarrod Dyson or Austin Jackson for a stopgap.

 

Rebuilding teams want to aim higher and younger.

 

There are not many situations where a team values Broxton's decent ~1WAR/year potential at a "cheap" rate as much as the Brewers do. He's valuable to the Brewers as depth for several years. Most other teams are not going to pay for all 4 years of remaining control in trade value.

 

Imagine this situation: Next year, the Brewers seem poised to compete again. However, Hiura is injured, Villar flamed out, Sogard flamed out.

 

Before the season, do we want to pay decent prospect value for Carlos Asuaje, a fringe major league player that has 4-5 years of control left, or do we want to just sign the equivalent of Howie Kendrick for 1 year and figure it out the next year? That's the Broxton paradox. The Padres have minimal motivation to deal someone like that unless someone offers full value, but nobody's going to offer value for all 4-5 years of team control.

 

Couple that with the fact that Broxton is probably best suited as a platoon hitter from the lesser side of the platoon and he probably doesn't even have everyday value for a competing team.

 

I get that Lowrie's value is depressed for several reasons, but the A's will likely want a young lottery ticket if anything. They don't want a guy that can platoon for them to win 76 games instead of 74 for a few years, as twirly said.

[Roderick]

I continue to wonder why we want nothing to do with Broxton on our big league team and sent him down last year, yet we think other teams will give up good things for him.

 

Yeah, I think teams that are not in the playoff chase this year are not going to be targeting a Broxton. They would want to roll the dice for a younger player that has more upside, but may never even make it to the majors.

 

I could see Broxton traded if another team needed someone (4th OF, CF injured) now as they were still competing and they trade someone that would improve upon our 2B/C.

[tmwiese55]

I continue to wonder why we want nothing to do with Broxton on our big league team and sent him down last year, yet we think other teams will give up good things for him.

 

Yeah, I think teams that are not in the playoff chase this year are not going to be targeting a Broxton. They would want to roll the dice for a younger player that has more upside, but may never even make it to the majors.

 

I could see Broxton traded if another team needed someone (4th OF, CF injured) now as they were still competing and they trade someone that would improve upon our 2B/C.

 

And a competing team would not want him playing in a pennant chase. Therefore, next to no trade value.

[pacopete4]

Not every depth piece HAS to be traded. It is nice to have Broxton in case of emergency as we know that he can come up and help the team. If he spends the year in AAA and is never used, perfectly fine with me because it means things went well for us on the big league club.

 

Back on to Lowrie... it will be interesting to see his stats in a few months. They scream a hot start and his career numbers say that he will come back to earth.

[reillymcshane]

One thing about Lowrie -- look at what Neil Walker got in trade, and I'm betting it is similar - with Lowrie worth a little more. Both are solid infielders with decent bats. Walker (at the time of the trade) was making a lot more money, but he has a very consistent track record. Lowrie is a couple of years older, an erratic track record, and more versatile.

 

I say that Lowrie is worth a little more because his contract. Walker was making $17M or something like that. Lowrie makes $6M. You're not taking on as much salary with Lowrie.

 

Another comparable might be Eduardo Núñez. He was hitting .300+ last year when he was dealt to the Red Sox for a couple of low lever minor leaguers. Nunez was making only $4M last year.

 

All these guys were in their free agent years.

 

So, if Lowrie starts to hit more like regular Jed Lowrie - I don't expect him to fetch a ton. It certainly won't be a complete throwaway, but nothing huge.

 

Now, all this goes out the window if Lowrie keeps hitting like Mike Trout. He's already got six HRs. He's generally been more of a 10-15 HR guy - at most. But if he's hitting .330 with 15 HR at the break - he's a much different player than Walker or Nunez.

[And That]

The A's have been playing well, and may keep playing that way. By Fangraphs, they have the best offensive unit in baseball by quite some margin, and have an above average pitching staff as well. Who knows if this continues, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that the A's add at the deadline. Lowrie would have been a good add in the offseason, but I'd put the odds of him playing for the Brewers this season as very low at the moment.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bump for this thread. Lowrie has continued to hit well, & sits at a slash line of .293/.355/.502/.857. He's three HRs away from setting a career high with about half the season left to play.

 

He's still my favorite target for a bat to add*. Oakland is winning, but pretty far off the pace in the AL. And Lowrie's contract is very team friendly. Curious to hear what others think it would cost to get him.

 

*EDIT: Specifically, compared to Dozier, I prefer Lowrie because he's a higher AVG, less boom-or-bust as a hitter. Not sure how they compare defensively... I think Lowrie's defensive metrics show what you might expect age 34 -- makes the routine plays but doesn't offer a lot in terms of range.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bump for this thread. Lowrie has continued to hit well, & sits at a slash line of .293/.355/.502/.857. He's three HRs away from setting a career high with about half the season left to play.

 

He's still my favorite target for a bat to add*. Oakland is winning, but pretty far off the pace in the AL. And Lowrie's contract is very team friendly. Curious to hear what others think it would cost to get him.

 

*EDIT: Specifically, compared to Dozier, I prefer Lowrie because he's a higher AVG, less boom-or-bust as a hitter. Not sure how they compare defensively... I think Lowrie's defensive metrics show what you might expect age 34 -- makes the routine plays but doesn't offer a lot in terms of range.

 

Oakland is pretty far "off the pace" but there are no teams between them and the 2nd wild card so they just need one team to collapse, not 4 or 5. Unless they drop a dozen games off the pace by the end of the month, I don't see them selling.