TOR Arm - What are you willing to give up?

[brewerfan82]

Say some combination of the following pitchers becomes available late in Spring Training or at the trade deadline:

 

2018 ZiPS Projections Ranked by WAR

[pre] ERA IP WHIP K/9 BB/9 FIP WAR

6. Chris Archer 3.27 195.7 1.18 10.6 2.7 3.10 5.2

11. Carlos Carrasco 3.19 183.7 1.08 9.9 2.0 3.35 4.6

12. Marcus Stroman 3.54 190.7 1.25 7.8 2.5 3.48 4.5

13. Jacob deGrom 3.38 181.3 1.16 9.5 2.4 3.31 4.4

21. James Paxton 3.22 134.3 1.18 9.7 2.5 3.05 3.7

43. Michael Fulmer 3.94 162.3 1.24 7.1 2.3 3.96 3.0 (I'm not a big fan, but he's been mentioned a bit on the forum)[/pre]

 

What kind of package are you willing to put together to see if a team will bite?

 

I think I could live with something like Phillips, Woodruff, Peralta, and Dubon. Depending on the other team's needs and if they're willing to add something back, I may consider swapping Santana in for Phillips, but otherwise, the offense stays scary stacked without giving up Domingo (and Hiura still in the pipeline) and we still have a couple talented, young starters coming up in Burnes and Ortiz (not to mention Hader waiting his chance in the bigs too).

 

That seems like it should be a pretty good set of talented, young, controllable players at or near the big league level for a team looking to rebuild and if no teams think that's enough, they can get bent

 

What's your limit before you say it's not worth it?

[MadThinker88]

You can remove the Carlos Carrasco line from the list above.

 

If he becomes available, its because he is injured and would be missing all/ the remainder of 2018 (& a chunk of 2019). Otherwise, he will not become available in trade (at least for anything close to the price your willing to pay).

 

Carlos is good, under contract at a reasonable cost for the next few seasons and the Indians are playoff contenders in a weak division. Cannot reasonably see how he would become available in a trade.

 

Pitching is key. It is more valuable than hitting or power/ homers. Those that have it are in the better positions to succeed.

[Dave_Not_Here]

I'd be most hesitant to move Arcia and Hader for anybody, but nobody is completely "off-limits." Just depends on who for?

[Jkromb]

Hader, Burnes, and Erceg for Stroman or DeGrom.

[adambr2]

Hader, Burnes, and Erceg for Stroman or DeGrom.

 

I agree with no one being off limits but I'm not moving Hader for those names. I'd need the level of Syndergaard or Bumgarner to be talked into moving Hader.

[Jkromb]

Hader, Burnes, and Erceg for Stroman or DeGrom.

 

I agree with no one being off limits but I'm not moving Hader for those names. I'd need the level of Syndergaard or Bumgarner to be talked into moving Hader.

 

DeGrom and Stroman are pretty good though.. we arent getting a Syndergaard or a Bumgarner..

[nate82]

Hader, Burnes, and Erceg for Stroman or DeGrom.

 

I agree with no one being off limits but I'm not moving Hader for those names. I'd need the level of Syndergaard or Bumgarner to be talked into moving Hader.

 

Agreed. While Degrom is pretty good on his own I just don't feel comfortable giving up Hader and Burnes for Degrom or Stroman.

 

I don't really want to be giving up Hader or Burnes unless I am getting someone like Kershaw or Sale. Basically Hader and Burnes together should get the Brewers a Sale type of a pitcher. We should be getting at a minimum 3-years of control if we are trading both Hader and Burnes. Stroman and Degrom both have the time left but I am not putting them on the same level as Sale. I really like both Stroman and Degrom but if I am trading Hader and Burnes I am wanting someone like Syndergaard who has 4-years of control left.

 

You probably don't get Syndergaard or someone like Syndergaard for Hader and Burnes plus another prospect but I don't really care about that. The value that the Brewers would be giving up in Burnes and Hader outweighs what Stroman and Degrom bring. If the Brewers were to get Degrom or Stroman now then sure one of Hader or Burnes should be included but not both.

[badger3034]

I'm open to including Burnes in a deal for a TOR pitcher, but that trade has to involve not trading Arcia, Santana, Hader or Hiura. This obviously isn't going to happen, so I'm not open to trading anything other than that

[TJseven7]

While stroman degrom paxton are more interesting to me I'm getting more and more adverse to these types of deals. Sticker shock is pushing me away from it unless a title is looking possible. If anderson nelson cobb run off seasons in the 3.0-3.2 range then I'm probably in but these all seem like drop the hammer all in deals.

 

What we have to realize though is at that point we are likely bringing a TOR in but sending a guy like Davies or Woodruff out. Chacin moves to a slider heavy pen arm.

 

I think its a next offseason move (2019) or even next deadline but if 1-5 is rocking... and anyone in the 6-8 slots are surprising...

 

Woodruff Burnes Ortiz Ray Dubon Phillips Grisham. All on the table. I'm still going to try to keep Hiura Lutz Erceg Peralta and everyone on the MLB squad besides Davies or Woodruff but I'd pay up. I'd try to keep Peralta for the pen effective immediately upon the trade. Everything has to line up. No regressions, nelson back 100%, pen making a big jump forward from last year. But Im paying woodruff and farm because I'm not weakening the MLB team. It defeats the purpose of all in.

 

Otherwise these offers can stay in dream land.

[82brewcrew82]

Adding a pitcher doesn't displace Woodruff or Chacin. It displaces the Gallardo/Miley/Wilkerson/Guerra/Suter type of starting rotation chaff. IF a guy like Burnes pushes the issue, then great, now you have assets in an area of strength to trade in a Davies or Chacin. Same story if Nelson comes back to what he was last year. Adding a guy like Stroman/DeGrom would be an easy decision in my mind.

[Jenkins5]

Hader is a major piece moving forward for this club. Not sure the value equals out. A lefty who has potential and has shown that potential to be a lights out back of pullpen guy who can also go extra innings if needed. It is great to add a guy to pitch every fifth day but not sure I want to remove one of our top 2 bullpen arms to get one.

 

I'm at point where I say we wait until midseason to bring in a TOR. Sign Cobb or Arrieta possibly or trade Broxton for a solid 4-5 to hold down fort until Nelson is back. Hope Woodruff shines a bit. I think with our offense, we will be competitive even with a eh rotation. If we are in race come July, push the chips in. Burns, Peralta, Ortiz all could be knocking on door come July as well. May be able to give up less quantity if some of these guys have big first halves

[TJseven7]

I'm saying...

 

Add cobb now, anderson cobb nelson davies woodruff/chacin.

 

Push for a big arm in a trade only if Anderson Nelson Cobb etc prove to cover 3 of the 4 playoff starting spots on a title contending team.

 

If that's the case then 1 add makes Davies the 5... woodruff chacin displaced.

 

I think its foolish to bleed the farm unless you have nelson anderson cobb (maybe chacin davies woodruff can dazzle who knows) as a rock solid 2-3-4 or 1-3-4 who need 1 piece to complete a playoff 4 pack.

 

Don't want a big add only to have 2. Or 3. If nelson cobb anderson can't open the window... you dont trade for the kill shot addition.

[82brewcrew82]

If Nelson comes back strong, we probably won't see it in full until the ASB. If we are acquiring someone now, Nelson doesn't factor in for me. He becomes the big mid-season pitching acquisition.

 

If your rotation is Stroman/Anderson/Davies/Chacin/Woodruff, then the risk of Nelson not regaining form is mitigated. That rotation would still stack up. If your rotation is Anderson/Davies/Cobb/Chacin/Woodruff, then you are really banking on Nelson returning to full form and doing it quickly. Acquiring a Stroman at the break is going to cost just as much if not more. If your rotation is headed by Stroman AND Nelson comes back, then you can compete with anyone on both sides of the ball in my opinion.

 

Having said that, non of DeGrom/Stroman/Paxton are realistically available so its just a fun arguement. If they were available, I'd be in on them without thinking twice.

[TJseven7]

Why on earth would you blow up the farm before you see how Nelson can return? You add stroman and nelson doesn't come back your risk isnt mitigated... you pushed all in and DON'T have the horses needed to win.

 

The 1 more arm trade is a finishing trade... ahem verlander. Nows when you sign cobb. If 3 of cobb nelson abderson woodruff davies arent close to last years anderson you dont go all in.

[82brewcrew82]

I keep hearing how underrated this rotation is. Now it doesn't have the horses? You're pushing Anderson as a TOR so you add Stroman and you have a legit 1/2 with Davies/Chacin behind that. Why wouldn't you have the horses?

[superfly]

I'd give the farm no questions asked for a controllable TOR arm. Hader off limits.

[FVBrewerFan]

I approach this from the position that your resources are limited in terms of dollars and high end prospects. If they go out and get Cobb, that's the last move I would make for now.

 

That is a list of good pitchers, but not that dominant ace that some of the other teams have. In fact, some teams have a couple of them. So why play that game of trying to match that with guys that are step or two down the ladder and giving up a massive amount of young talent in the process? Not to mention the money involved.

 

I would open the year with Davies, Anderson, Cobb, Woodruff, Chacin. Guys like Wilkerson in reserve. Then Nelson comes back. Plus, Burnes could come up and really hit the ground running. Not that far-fetched. In the not too distant future you have Peralta, Ortiz, Ponce, Perin, etc.

 

Let's see how all this shakes out before we make a major move. BUT, if/when a major move is made, I would prefer that it made for a major stud. Think Darvish as the floor. If they're really good in August, I would be all for a trade similar to the Greinke trade they made a few years back. I rather have two years of a dominant pitcher than 3 years of a really good pitcher.

[ilikewisco]

he's not TOR, but would you give up Davies for Hamels? Would it take Davies plus? MLBTR had a blurb on Hamels not happy with a 6 man rotation, but I would imagine Texas would want a starter back. Haven't watched him pitch in years, only pitched 130 innings last year but I don't remember the injury.

 

Hoping Hamels isn't over the hill I would do it for Woodruff.

[adambr2]

he's not TOR, but would you give up Davies for Hamels? Would it take Davies plus? MLBTR had a blurb on Hamels not happy with a 6 man rotation, but I would imagine Texas would want a starter back. Haven't watched him pitch in years, only pitched 130 innings last year but I don't remember the injury.

 

Hoping Hamels isn't over the hill I would do it for Woodruff.

 

Not a chance I would give up either Davies or Woodruff for Hamels. That's a lot of young control to give up for 1-2 years of an expensive 34 year old coming off an okay year.

 

I'd give them someone like Wilkerson or Derby and a low level flyer if they took on at least 10M of his salary this year. That's about it.

[ilikewisco]

Davies would be out of the question I guess. I haven't seen Hamels pitch in a long time but he's low to mid 3 era most years except last year. I wasn't overly impressed with Woodruff last year but you're probably right there too.