Roster logjam - playing time?

[tmwiese55]

I am really confused by why having so many good players is a "mess". I mean, I get it that playing time will be harder for Counsell to do but it is a great problem to have. Phillips and Broxton can go get better at AAA, Aguilar can go try to find a different home or accept a AAA assignment, and Thame can become a great bench bat for us. And guys like Sogard and Perez? The minute they aren't Brewers I will probably forget that they even exist.

 

Yea certainly beats trotting out Shane Peterson, Nick Franklin, Ramon Flores, elian Herrera and Alex Presley. Guys are gonna hurt, I think it will take care of itself over the year.

[KeithStone53151]

I am really confused by why having so many good players is a "mess". I mean, I get it that playing time will be harder for Counsell to do but it is a great problem to have. Phillips and Broxton can go get better at AAA, Aguilar can go try to find a different home or accept a AAA assignment, and Thame can become a great bench bat for us. And guys like Sogard and Perez? The minute they aren't Brewers I will probably forget that they even exist.

 

Players reach a point that at bats in AAA don't really help much. It may help guys stay sharp and see live pitching, but there isn't much value in them going to AAA and face subpar competition. It's just a holding spot for depth, and that may be the route we go but it isn't ideal. Would be more ideal to trade a player for value.

[KeithStone53151]

Counsel said Braun will not play RF. Yelich will get looks at all 3 spots. Braun will work at LF and 1b. I agree with that, don't want to overload him too much as he's already learning 1b.

[BrewCrewForever]

Depth is good. Injuries will happen. Players will slump or not play as good as last year. I'm glad we have a lot of options but yeah it may be a little full starting the season out.

 

My thought as well. Having a good deep team of position players is a good problem to have, especially in the NL with PH and Double switches. And of course injuries are bound to happen as well as slumps. Nice to have options.

[And That]

The log jam will be resolved pretty soon...trade is coming

Do you think it's Santana or someone else?

[NievesNoNO]

Really the key to all of this working is Braun at least being passable on D at 1B. If not they have a dilemma. Being that the other 1B are Thames/Jesus, he doesn't have to be very good on D to be in their ballpark since those two are very average to poor imo. So it shouldn't too hard, but you never know. Hope he looks adequate/good in Spring Training or everyone knows the'll be fairly desperate to move Santana.

 

You make a good point. It would be very risky to put Braun in at 1b in spring training games and have him potentially flail around and look terrible. Other teams would see it, see our dilemna, and we'd lose all leverage.

 

We're talking about a guy who is athletic, was a SS in college, and came up as a 3B. Granted he was exposed as a bad 3B once he hit the majors, but I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be able to handle playing 1B on a regular basis. Thames isn't near the athlete Braun is, and he made the transition successfully. Braun playing a passable 1B is the least of my worries with the team right now.

 

I have a pretty good deal of concern about Braun at 1B. I can't envision it working out well. I know he won't field as many batted balls and throw across the diamond as much but he'll be involved in a greater number of total plays and still need to field and throw plenty. Yes, he's athletic but he's also not college aged anymore and hasn't ever played 1B at the professional level that I can recall. I agree he won't have to be great to match Thames and Aguilar but honestly, I can't see him playing defensively to their level as a 1B. He will almost certainly be a worse 1B than a LF.

 

All that said, his healthy bat in the lineup is important, so if him at 1B is how they balance things out that's fine with me. I still think Santana gets moved but if he's not the depth is ok. I would imagine, as others have said, that Aguilar would be the odd man out in that situation. Probably not a big deal, but between him and Thames at 1B they had a pretty good thing going so I'd be a bit disappointed as it feels like a bit of a waste of resources to me.

 

I agree with many of the breakdowns others have posted about playing time. There's enough and it's ok to have some insurance, but if there's a chance to trade Santana for something of value then I think that's a better use of a resource for the current group. Maybe my opinion changes on that before the season depending on other FA signings or moves.

[bork]

Really, Phillips and Aquilar are the odd men out and the guys who are losing out on big league ABs. They would obviously have the most to gain by a Santana trade.

 

Broxton has had his chances and doesn't appear to be more than a 4th OF. I was really amazed looking at the starts last year, that almost half the OF starts were by guys who really shouldn't be starting in an MLB OF and they still only missed the playoffs by a game.

[danzig6767]

Generally agree. But he's 34 and is at risk of straining a muscle any time he moves, and hasn't had to play IF in over 10 years. It should be fine and they must have some confidence in it or they wouldn't have gotten this far, but that is still the key to all of it. Albeit one that is likely going to be work out.

Yea, i don't agree with this assumption by so many that Braun should have no problem playing at least half way decent defense at first base.

 

Maybe he can end up do so, but i only put the odds of that happening around 50/50.

 

First base is lower on the scale of importance defensively, but it's far from irrelevant if a team has a below average to terrible defender at that position. Mix in that Braun no longer is the offensive force that he used to be, having a below average to bad defensive player at first who only hits at say an .800-.840ish OPS clip isn't much of an asset to a team trying to win.

 

Sure, it's possible that Braun either hits better than that and/or is better defensively than i'd expect, but he's 34, not 26 and long removed from playing the infield where he was brutal.

[Jopal78]

Even with Rizzo and Bryant each playing over 150 games at First and Third base respectively; Cubs were able to get the following players the following at bats in 2017:

 

Heyward 432 at bats (CF, RF)

Zobrist 435 at bats (LF,RF,3B,2B,1B)

Schwarber 422 at bats (LF, DH)

Javy Baez 469 at bats (2B,3B,SS,1B,RF)

Ian Happ 364 at bats (LF,CF,RF,2B,SS)

Jon Jay 379 at bats (LF,CF,RF,DH)

 

I don't see a problem in getting: Braun, Yelich, Cain, Santana, Thames, plenty of at bats if there is some flexibility in players playing both right and left field, center and left, etc.

[TJseven7]

Rf santana 145 cain 17 (145 santana, 139 starts previous max)

Cf cain 128 yelich 34 (145 cain, 154 last year, prior career high 139 starts)

Lf yelich 121 braun 41 (155 yelich, 1 over career high last year)

1b thames 85 braun 77 (118 braun)

 

Dh opportunities can be used to increase starts by Braun or Thames. Thames really doesn't lose many starts at 1b. He had 108 appearances there and 30 in the OF. Even if you count all 108 at 1b towards his starts, 123 total, he's losing as many OF starts as he is at 1B.

 

I'd send down both broxton and phillips... move aguilar for a ticket and have a 4 man bench of thames vogt perez sogard. I'd carry 3.5 OF with emergency depth like perez thames until an injury opens up playing time. If someone hits dl... broxton or phillips cover.

 

Either way... when you stop seeing Braun as a guy who can start over 120 games and you realize 85-90 vs rhp is plenty for Thames, this fits real easy. Even easier if 1 of 5 guys misses any time, which is likely. Best of all no garbage abs in the OF or 1b.

[tmwiese55]

The more i think about this the more I'm ok with going into the year with all the hitters. Of course, that's assuming Braun is passable Prince Fielder level at 1B. If that's the case there should be plenty of flexibility to get enough ABs for everyone. Especially with what we've seen from Counsell so far in his propensity of playing matchups and keeping everyone playing no matter who they are. If we're going to be doing that to keep Nick Franklin and Broxton etc fresh, I guess I'm happy we have much better players we're doing it with this year.

 

Someone pointed out the Cubs ABs above and others have for MKE too. Think how many ABs went to the Broxtons, Perez's, Kirk types the last few years. Now those are covered by a legit good hitters. Injuries will happen, maybe someone goes in a major funk, a trade happens later. Usually these things find a way to sort themselves out. If we're being lowballed on Santana I'm fine going this route.

[FVBrewerFan]

Really, Phillips and Aquilar are the odd men out and the guys who are losing out on big league ABs. They would obviously have the most to gain by a Santana trade.

 

Broxton has had his chances and doesn't appear to be more than a 4th OF. I was really amazed looking at the starts last year, that almost half the OF starts were by guys who really shouldn't be starting in an MLB OF and they still only missed the playoffs by a game.

 

That's how I see it. Broxton is an MLB player. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he pulled a Gomez and put together one great season. But there are better options now, so I'm fine with him as the 4th OF or as things stand today in AAA. He "should" have value, and I wish they could trade him for 2-3 lottery ticket types like the Lind deal.

 

It's Aguilar and Phillips that bother me the most. Phillips is ready, and with his arm/defense and LH bat he would be a really nice fit. But injuries happen, a deal could still happen- even in April yet.

 

Then there's Aguilar. I'm much higher on him than most and will be very disappointed if they just have to dfa him and get nothing back. I mean, I would make a bet today that he will have a higher OPS+ than Thames. But of course Thames is LH, so he fits better with Braun playing 1B.

 

All of this is going by where the roster stands today, and I still expect more moves to be made.

[MrTPlush]

Domingo Santana is not playing 1st guys! If that was any type of option do you not seriously think it would have happened this spring? If they are trying Braun at first they are looking pretty low and desperate to move an OF to 1B.

[tmwiese55]

I'm in the camp that Broxton has next to no value. I mean, we benched him and sent him down last year and played rookies over him. Now he's like our 5th or 6th OF giving no leverage. He's not young anymore. He's had his shot and proved he can't hack it. Sure, he could still magically put together a Gomez like year or two, but no one is trading anything of value for him at this point. He's a 4th OF or AAAA guy as of now.

[pacopete4]

Sorry but AAAA guys don't steal 20 bags and hit 20 bombs in partial seasons. He may not be a starter for us but that doesn't mean he can't be elsewhere.

[adambr2]

The thing that bothers me about forcing room for Braun at 1st is that he is really unlikely to outproduce who he is replacing

 

Thames OPSed .918 vs. RHP and Aguilar OPSed .902 vs LHP. They combined for 46 HR. That's a really good platoon, I don't think even the ones the most optimistic on Braun expect him to match that.

 

If we were replacing Lyle Overbay 2.0 I'd be excited, but I don't see an upgrade.

[KeithStone53151]

Sorry but AAAA guys don't steal 20 bags and hit 20 bombs in partial seasons. He may not be a starter for us but that doesn't mean he can't be elsewhere.

 

I would think Broxton would be targeted by a 2nd division team or rebuilding team that can give him everyday playing time and hope he puts things together.

[pacopete4]

Maybe the front office doesn't feel as though Aguilar is a realistic repeat of that performance. Maybe they view Thames in a similar fashion?

[tmwiese55]

Sorry but AAAA guys don't steal 20 bags and hit 20 bombs in partial seasons. He may not be a starter for us but that doesn't mean he can't be elsewhere.

 

They are if they strike out 50% of the time and was a backup OF bouncing between MLB and AAA for years now. Kinda the definition of "backup OF or AAAA player" to me. Every fan wanted him benched or demoted last year but no we expect to get something legit for him, doesn't add up to me. I suppose he could probably be a platoon starter vs lefites for a bad team but if you're trying to win it you're not relying on him as a near full time starter. So, backup OF or AAAA guy seems ok to me. Or like someone else just said, for a team basically tanking no harm in throwing him out there and trying to catch lightning in a bottle, basically what we tried to do, and he failed.

[tmwiese55]

The thing that bothers me about forcing room for Braun at 1st is that he is really unlikely to outproduce who he is replacing

 

Thames OPSed .918 vs. RHP and Aguilar OPSed .902 vs LHP. They combined for 46 HR. That's a really good platoon, I don't think even the ones the most optimistic on Braun expect him to match that.

 

If we were replacing Lyle Overbay 2.0 I'd be excited, but I don't see an upgrade.

 

Generally agree with your logic and points. Just feels like a good time to reiterate how massively skewed those numbers because of Thames' April.

[KeithStone53151]

The thing that bothers me about forcing room for Braun at 1st is that he is really unlikely to outproduce who he is replacing

 

Thames OPSed .918 vs. RHP and Aguilar OPSed .902 vs LHP. They combined for 46 HR. That's a really good platoon, I don't think even the ones the most optimistic on Braun expect him to match that.

 

If we were replacing Lyle Overbay 2.0 I'd be excited, but I don't see an upgrade.

 

Generally agree with your logic and points. Just feels like a good time to reiterate how massively skewed those numbers because of Thames' April.

 

Thames also had a very impressive September, ended the season on a good note.

[TJseven7]

The thing that bothers me about forcing room for Braun at 1st is that he is really unlikely to outproduce who he is replacing

 

Thames OPSed .918 vs. RHP and Aguilar OPSed .902 vs LHP. They combined for 46 HR. That's a really good platoon, I don't think even the ones the most optimistic on Braun expect him to match that.

 

If we were replacing Lyle Overbay 2.0 I'd be excited, but I don't see an upgrade.

 

Generally agree with your logic and points. Just feels like a good time to reiterate how massively skewed those numbers because of Thames' April.

 

Lets be fair here:

Aguilar had a whole 108 PA vs lhp which he killed and 5 hr due to the low sample size.

 

He had 194 pa vs rhp 11 hr .... why?

Thames had 85 PA as a lf or rf with 5 hr... defensively why?

110 pa vs lhp and 6 hr... why?

 

Saying 46 HR is just not being honest. I see 300 ab there that I wouldn't want to see. Especially not over Braun. Thames can still get around the 430 PA he had last year vs rhp. The splits on Aguilar and the fact that he only had 108 vs lhp... added to the fact that Braun typically has crushed lhp (not last year) makes me pretty confident the platoon will improve changing Aguilar for Braun.

[tmwiese55]

One thing on the other side that popped in my head after TJ7 that I didn't really think about before now and I don't recall seeing mentioned is that Thames/Jesus weren't used in a strict platoon until very late. So, the obvious outlier of April isn't going to happen again, but some of that loss could be made up for by using a stricter platoon to maximize their strengths. That said, as TJ just pointed out of course Braun should be much better than Jesus

[JohnBriggs12]

All the speculation is just that. There's 5 weeks before the season starts, and I'd put the probability that Santana is moved at greater than 50-50.

[pacopete4]

All the speculation is just that. There's 5 weeks before the season starts, and I'd put the probability that Santana is moved at greater than 50-50.

 

I think I agree with you but does anyone have any data or factual evidence that many moves occur so close to the season? I am trying to remember previous years but do not remember a lot of movement other than people being let go and others trying to pick them up and stash them.