Hosmer to the Padres

[MVP2110]

Looks like he'll make his Padre debut vs our local nine.

 

[brooks_quichenick]

8 years with an opt-out after year 5 per Jon Morosi

 

[MVP2110]

Will be curious to see the AAV

[Eye Black]

That makes current San Diego Padres front office staff member Dave Cameron’s Free Agent Landmines article a cringeworthy juxtaposition since he listed Hosmer as the #1 free agent landmine this offseason.

[SRB]

Welp, somebody actually having a worse night than the Rays!

 

Amazing for a guy who was below replacement level in 2016.

[Eye Black]

Wil Myers is moving back to the OF for San Diego.

 

I’m stealing this from the internet, but a recap of tonight...

 

Eric Hosmer - age 28 - 111 career OPS+

Wil Myers - age 27 - 110 career OPS+

C.J. Cron - age 28 - 108 career OPS+

Corey Dickerson - age 28 - 119 career OPS+

[MrTPlush]

This collusion is rough stuff.

[liveforoctober]

Would rather have Mat Adams at < 5% of whatever that contract ends up being... what a weird world we live in.

[Eye Black]

From Scott Miller:

 

Sources: Hosmer to #Padres is for 8 years, opt out after 5, front-loaded deal: $20 million each of first 5 years, $13 mil each of last three years, AAV $18 mil.

[bill hAll Star]

I was gonna say gotta be frontloaded given how they’ve set this up.

 

He’s gonna be a bust overall but on a Y2Y basis it makes sense if this is who they want to hitch their wagon to.

[DuWayne Steurer]

A 1st baseman who's got a career OPS below .800, who plays (according to the metrics) really bad defense (but keeps winning gold gloves), and they gave him 8 years. At least the AAV isn't horrible?

[bill hAll Star]

Hosmer and Jason Heyward both benefitted from having a “good guy/franchise guy + consistent player + inflates prospect” aura about them that vastly overshadowed their actual MLB performance (Heyward did have a good stretch).

 

In this case, the Padres wanted their cornerstone vet to go along with all their young players and the Royals wanted to keep the face of the franchise while the team went into the tank. Boras played them against each other and won big.

[trwi7]

Would rather have Mat Adams at < 5% of whatever that contract ends up being... what a weird world we live in.

 

Not only him but Logan Morrison and probably a couple more guys I can't think of right now that are still free agents. This is just a terrible deal. It's not even like they can get out of it after a couple of years if Hosmer flukes his way to a couple more good seasons and opts out.

[brooks_quichenick]

On nights like tonight where a team like the Rays shrugs and just gives up, it's cool that the Padres are making an effort to get better. With Tatis, Urias, Gore etc on the rise they could be really scary in a couple years, and they'll have a playoff experienced veteran at 1B who everyone in the clubhouse seems to love. Good for 'em.

 

 

That makes current San Diego Padres front office staff member Dave Cameron’s Free Agent Landmines article a cringeworthy juxtaposition since he listed Hosmer as the #1 free agent landmine this offseason.

 

Also, this really made me laugh

[KeithStone53151]

Hosmer has age on his side unlike most free agents. They should feel comfortable getting solid production from him for 3-4 years at least. I still think it's an overpay, but age should be a factor here. Also hosmer plays above his 800ish ops with his low k high avg stat line.

[MrTPlush]

The problem is the stupid amount of risk they had to take on for a guy who could be pretty middle of the pack at his own position in his prime. You are pretty much banking on 2017 being something you will see going forward. $144mil for a guy with little track record of high success is crazy. He is a guy who should have gotten 4-5 years max and not dished out 8 years. You just don’t dish out that much length to a guy like him. It is just terrible from a risk standpoint. The backloading is nice though and $13mil probably isn’t that much in 6 years.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Also hosmer plays above his 800ish ops with his low k high avg stat line.

 

I guess my first baseman isn't the guy I'm really worried about making productive outs. I'm not going to say that there's not a statistical plus to not striking out, but I don't know that there's really much of an actual statistical value over the course of a season to Hosmer striking out 110 - 120 times as opposed to 150 or 160 times.

[TJseven7]

Woof...

 

So a 5 mil sb... 100/5 with a player option for 39/3 more.

 

I want the ex fangraphs guy on the podium for questions! Wonder where his heads at today.

 

When 2 bidders dig in... KC wanna start over?

[bill hAll Star]

Re: the Cameron stuff - it’s pretty clear this was an ownership thing for SD and KC from the start. They both wanted to overpay the guy for an elder statesman.

 

I guess for Cameron, he can be hopeful that ownership is basically willing to pay this one on their own and the rest of the budget is his to decide what to do with after this.

[KeithStone53151]

Also hosmer plays above his 800ish ops with his low k high avg stat line.

 

I guess my first baseman isn't the guy I'm really worried about making productive outs. I'm not going to say that there's not a statistical plus to not striking out, but I don't know that there's really much of an actual statistical value over the course of a season to Hosmer striking out 110 - 120 times as opposed to 150 or 160 times.

 

I was moreso referring to his ability to hit. A guy that hits 285/350/450 is far more valuable than a guy that hits 220/310/490. It is also possible he has a couple more seasons like his near 900 ops last season with a 318 average.

 

Again, the deal is definitely too long...but i can understand it to some degree based on his age and the type of hitter he is. Guys that can flat out hit will generally age better than guys who rely heavily on athleticism for their value.

[Eye Black]

Re: the Cameron stuff - it’s pretty clear this was an ownership thing for SD and KC from the start. They both wanted to overpay the guy for an elder statesman.

 

I guess for Cameron, he can be hopeful that ownership is basically willing to pay this one on their own and the rest of the budget is his after this.

Yes, and the wheels were reportedly in motion well before Cameron took the position. Also, he did say during his farewell that one of the things he was most excited about was working with people that had different experiences, ideas and opinions from his own.

[TJseven7]

Re: the Cameron stuff - it’s pretty clear this was an ownership thing for SD and KC from the start. They both wanted to overpay the guy for an elder statesman.

 

I guess for Cameron, he can be hopeful that ownership is basically willing to pay this one on their own and the rest of the budget is his to decide what to do with after this.

 

Yeah but he's got to be sitting there not wanting to rock the boat but also watching that boat slowly glide into an iceberg. Ownership starts drifting the boat that way and he's sitting there in his head going... oh no...oh no... crap... no crap no... well its just 8 years... and only 20% of the payroll for 5 years...sigh.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

I was moreso referring to his ability to hit. A guy that hits 285/350/450 is far more valuable than a guy that hits 220/310/490. It is also possible he has a couple more seasons like his near 900 ops last season with a 318 average.

 

Again, the deal is definitely too long...but i can understand it to some degree based on his age and the type of hitter he is. Guys that can flat out hit will generally age better than guys who rely heavily on athleticism for their value.

 

I guess my concern would be that the almost .900 OPS guy he was last year is not who he really is. Is it possible? Sure, he may put up a few more seasons like that. 2 years ago he put up a .760 OPS, while hitting .266. The bad thing about his OPS is it's VERY dependent on his batting average. He's never hit 60 extra base hits in a season, and he doesn't draw a lot of walks. I mean, he is what he is. A very average 1B with average power and sub-par defense. If the Padres are lucky, they'll get a few good to really good seasons out of him. That's a heck of a dice roll though, and one I can't possibly imagine they should have taken, given his history.

[reillymcshane]

I think this was a pretty close to what was expected for Hosmer. I was thinking 6 years/$120M or 7 years/$140M. He gets a bit extra total value - but more years. That's an okay trade off for him. At worst, he's set until he's 35 years old. At best, with the opt out, he can reenter the market when he's 33 and get a better contract - in which case the value is $21M average for the five years. But he knows he's got that extra $39M cushion if his play deteriorates or he's injured.

 

I'm personally not a big fan of the guy at $18-20M a year, but it's not my team (or my money).

[bill hAll Star]

Re: the Cameron stuff - it’s pretty clear this was an ownership thing for SD and KC from the start. They both wanted to overpay the guy for an elder statesman.

 

I guess for Cameron, he can be hopeful that ownership is basically willing to pay this one on their own and the rest of the budget is his to decide what to do with after this.

 

Yeah but he's got to be sitting there not wanting to rock the boat but also watching that boat slowly glide into an iceberg. Ownership starts drifting the boat that way and he's sitting there in his head going... oh no...oh no... crap... no crap no... well its just 8 years... and only 20% of the payroll for 5 years...sigh.

 

You have to do this thing in life where you assume people aren’t THAT stupid.

 

Yes, if Hosmer stinks it could hinder their ability to add players 3-5 years from now (but again, not too much. Their roster will be very cheap outside of this). They probably won’t need to add that many anyways.

 

No, this will not be a normal thing. They’ve built a gigantic warehouse full of good prospects. They’re going to have a very cheap roster. And I think this was ownership’s one serious move. I doubt they’ll be asking him to sign an overpaid $100+ million deal every year.

 

I think the Padres’ future is very bright even if Myers and Hosmer are very blah guys for their contracts.