Twins Trade for Jake Odorizzi

[Boomer5]

Spectacular move for the Twins. I would have loved this as our secondary addition behind the headliner SP we pick up.

[pacopete4]

Spectacular move for the Twins. I would have loved this as our secondary addition behind the headliner SP we pick up.

 

Say we sign Cobb

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Who you kicking out to try to find out if Ordorizzi is any good? The guy wasn’t a good pitcher the last couple years and for all the flack Suter gets, he probably wouldn’t out pitch this guy as our #5.

[StearnsFTW]

You never want a guy wrho, if he repeats his last season, is non-tendered.

 

Edit: he probably wouldn't be non-tendered anyway because his actual e.r.a. doesn't look that bad even though he was actually terrible.

[MrTPlush]

I am more surprised the Rays wouldn’t roll the dice on Odorizzi bouncing back.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

The Rays had 6.3 million reasons to dump Ordozzi. Also, the prospect they got isn’t horrible and has some upside, even if he is not ranked highly by the “experts”.

[JohnBriggs12]

I am more surprised the Rays wouldn’t roll the dice on Odorizzi bouncing back.

 

The Rays just DFA'd a guy who was an All Star for them last year to save under $6 million. Says all you want to know about their financial situation. But doesn't mean they will lower their price on Archer. Palacios was pretty good in the Midwest League (320/.362/.544) and held his own in the Florida State League after being promoted. Could turn out he's a decent pickup.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Sorry, but is the reason jake o. is viewed as a difference making starter here mainly because the brewers drafted him? He's had some decent seasons, but last year was far from one of them, and tampa has a bunch of young arms that are probably more talented than him - had jake o. not been traded I wouldn't have been surprised to see him out of their opening day rotation.

 

Looks almost like a salary dump trade by a team that didn't have him in their 2018 plans...

[JosephC]

Odorizzi will likely make about 14.5 million and I'd say the prospect the Rays got back has a surplus value of about 5.5 million, so in surplus value the Twins have sunk about 20 million into this investment. Odorizzi only has to average 1.05 WAR over the next two years to make this an even trade from the Twin's perspective. Every number screams stay away from Odorizzi, but at a price like this he's well worth taking a chance on.

 

Needless to say, a terrible, terrible night for fans of the Rays. This move, combined with the Dickerson move, just screams that ownership looked at the 2018 numbers and gave the order to cut 10 million in payroll. That's the only logical explanation that I can see for what happened. Not to mentioned they filled their first base hole with a 2.3 million dollar veteran, which is a price tag that is about as low as one can go for a veteran with 3+ years of experience. Just terrible. MLB has no business having two franchises in the state of Florida. I doubt if the Rays would move Archer for cheap, but Alex Colome is sitting there with a 5+ million dollar price tag so if I were Stearns I'd be giving them a call today and asking about him.

[KeithStone53151]

Stearns made some public comments related to the trade that were covered by the brewers beat guys. What I basically took from it is, Stearns doesn't think Odorizzi is better enough than the in house options to be worth making a move. I agree

[SRB]

I am more surprised the Rays wouldn’t roll the dice on Odorizzi bouncing back.

 

Probably says a lot about their evaluation of whether he will bounce back.

[clancyphile]

But you are talking like next years arby matters. He's a 6.3 mil 1 year deal. Next year is next year. And even if he sucks this isn't a big loss.

 

Its a very reasonably priced filler arm. It cost them nothing in prospects. If we don't add someone I'll be a little irritated we stuck with 2 of Gallardo Miley Suter Wilkerson Guerra being needed over throwing tb a Ward level prospect for this small discount.

 

Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra combined are about 25% of what Odorizzi costs.

 

That's a #5 and two filler arms. Gallardo pushes it to a bit over 50%, but if he emerges as a veteran middle/long relief option (or even a 7th/8th inning option), he's worth every penny.

[TJseven7]

But you are talking like next years arby matters. He's a 6.3 mil 1 year deal. Next year is next year. And even if he sucks this isn't a big loss.

 

Its a very reasonably priced filler arm. It cost them nothing in prospects. If we don't add someone I'll be a little irritated we stuck with 2 of Gallardo Miley Suter Wilkerson Guerra being needed over throwing tb a Ward level prospect for this small discount.

 

Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra combined are about 25% of what Odorizzi costs.

 

That's a #5 and two filler arms. Gallardo pushes it to a bit over 50%, but if he emerges as a veteran middle/long relief option (or even a 7th/8th inning option), he's worth every penny.

 

And how many games do we lose sorting through which of these guys can pitch this year or how beat up do we leave the pen with woodruff and suter not working late into games.

 

I like suter as a long man, i like him in general, but you act like these guys can actually start or even pitch.

[TJseven7]

Odorizzi averages 5.4 ip per start in his last 2 years. Hard to do that not going 5.

 

Fact is without an add we are going into the first 2-3 months with our 5 being an in case of emergency arm. That's how you miss the postseason. Suter has a clear role as a very good long man. His numbers in his first 3 innings are gorgeous.

 

People talk about adding an arm late season... how about not having to make up for a limping 5 for the first half.

[pacopete4]

Odorizzi averages 5.4 ip per start in his last 2 years. Hard to do that not going 5.

 

Fact is without an add we are going into the first 2-3 months with our 5 being an in case of emergency arm. That's how you miss the postseason. Suter has a clear role as a very good long man.

 

10 of his 28 starts in 2017 went for less than 5 innings or 35%.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff (better than Ordorizzi now and in the future)

Guerra (opening day starter a year ago, lighting it up in offseason.)

[TJseven7]

Suter averaged 5.0 ip per start abd hurt his shoulder. He made 14 starts.

 

Oh guerra again... last I saw his numbers his Ks are still gone. It won't play. If he's not getting ks he's not right.

[superfly]

But you are talking like next years arby matters. He's a 6.3 mil 1 year deal. Next year is next year. And even if he sucks this isn't a big loss.

 

Its a very reasonably priced filler arm. It cost them nothing in prospects. If we don't add someone I'll be a little irritated we stuck with 2 of Gallardo Miley Suter Wilkerson Guerra being needed over throwing tb a Ward level prospect for this small discount.

 

Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra combined are about 25% of what Odorizzi costs.

 

That's a #5 and two filler arms. Gallardo pushes it to a bit over 50%, but if he emerges as a veteran middle/long relief option (or even a 7th/8th inning option), he's worth every penny.

 

You get what you pay for. Gallardo was one of the worst SP in the league, Guerra was horrific, Wilkerson has no experience and IMO meh, and Suter is a long man. Odorizzi is no stud but he's at least a "starting pitcher" in the majors.

[TJseven7]

Guerra threw 14 starts at 4.6 ip 5.2 era last year.

Odorizzi was at a lowly 5.1 ip for 28 starts.

 

But you cant point at Guerra Gallardo Miley Wilkerson Suter and say THAT'S BETTER! If 1 even is, which and when do you expect to know?

 

Im not comfortable throwing crap at the wall to see what sticks. This team wins the division last year with 1 more Garza... instead willy guerra espino and blazek.

 

I want to see cobb added and this be moot.

[pacopete4]

Guerra threw 14 starts at 4.6 ip 5.2 era last year.

Odorizzi was at a lowly 5.1 ip for 28 starts.

 

But you cant point at Guerra Gallardo Miley Wilkerson Suter and say THAT'S BETTER! If 1 even is, which and when do you expect to know?

 

Im not comfortable throwing crap at the wall to see what sticks. This team wins the division last year with 1 more Garza... instead willy guerra espino and blazek.

 

I want to see cobb added and this be moot.

 

It’ll all be alright. You may not be okay with those guys but either Stearns is and wants to see which one of them comes out of the mix or he will add as there are still a ton of free agents still available. Not sure why you are so damn hung up on Odorizzi. At best you’re tossing in another guy that is very comparable to what we already have at camp. Just like Stearns said, if they are going to add it actually has to improve their team. Brewers front office doesn’t believe this move would’ve moved the needle.

[TJseven7]

Not hung up on him. I had garcia higher up the list. I'm hung up on people going... suter can do it. No proof. Wilkerson who is treated like the new jungemann? Gallardo can guerra can... again light a candle and say a prayer.

 

I want a solid arm that sets people in their proper roles if we don't add a true add like cobb.

 

Saying all these broken toys can do it while spitting on odorizzi who's actually done it is my irritation.

[wildcat2237]

 

I want a solid arm that sets people in their proper roles if we don't add a true add like cobb.

 

Saying all these broken toys can do it while spitting on odorizzi who's actually done it is my irritation.

 

The only reason for the Brewers to not acquire Odorizzi for virtually nothing is because something bigger is coming.

 

I guess worst case scenario you sign Hellickson.

[pacopete4]

 

Saying all these broken toys can do it while spitting on odorizzi who's actually done it is my irritation.

 

It’s been awhile for Odorizzi to actually do “it”. Guerra (2016), Gallardo (2015 and many other years), Suter gave a spark a year ago. Plenty of reason to believe in those three already in house guys over acquiring Odorizzi and basically being stuck with giving him starts no matter his performance. You said “light a candle and say a prayer” about those guys but that’s exactly what the Twins are doing by acquiring Odorizzi.

[TJseven7]

And I know there's a fip crowd that will lose their minds when I say this but Odorizzi has posted a 3.89 era over the last 2 years. 5.4 ip per start 331 ip. That's his last two HORRIBLE years.

 

Guerra has been a 3.64 in the same span, same ip per start but only 185.2 ip. No history prior.

 

Suter again better at a 3.45... 14 starts 5ip per start. No history prior.

 

Gallardo has just been brutal the last 2 so I won't even bother.

 

I get the metrics love. I get people adore their fip fipx... but I look.at these numbers enough to know that some dudes never live up to their fip... bauer is a great example... and others beat it regularly... davies. Odorizzi was low era better

Fip the first year... better era than fip the last 3.

 

It's hopes and prayers either way. But 4 years of 3.8 ball is closer to what you need than the huge revert guerra gallardo need. Its closer than the jump in usage you need from suter. Wilkerson was in AA at 28.

 

I'd prefer a guy who is 3 hail marys from 150 ip at 4 era than the full rosary options we are looking at on this roster.

 

To be dead honest... I'd rather have 43 year old RA Dickey with suter and wilkerson as a long man then trust Guerra Gallardo Suter Wilkerson Miley starting. Ps: Don't scoff... thru 5 ip... 31 starts...153 ip 3.41 era....LAST YEAR! Old man/suter piggy back would be sooo fun! Minds would melt. 8 man pen makes it possible. Come on dream with me.

[TJseven7]

Suter averaged 5.0 ip per start abd hurt his shoulder. He made 14 starts.

 

Oh guerra again... last I saw his numbers his Ks are still gone. It won't play. If he's not getting ks he's not right.

 

Side note: Guerra down 8.1 ip in winter ball. Little worse 0.12 era. Same walks 17... 19 less ks than his 15-16 stint.

 

Bb up .5 per 9

K down 2.2 per 9

 

That's the problem he had last year. Bb up .9 per 9... k down 1.8 per 9.

 

Only thing he's improved is limiting his hrs in winterball.

 

Walks got to drop... ks have to rise or I don't buy it.

[Boomer5]

Jake for nothing would have been a great pick up and at the very least a cheap insurance policy. No doubt about it. Much better than Yo and Miley.

 

I am assuming like some of the other posters that Stearns passed on this obviously great trade because he is working on something bigger.

[brewcrewdue80]

Wow the schedule not as kind as usual. Pretty much you could skip #5 two times in first three through the order. (Giving the first 4 no extra days rest) And you could do that again in May skip #5 the first two times through the order by not giving the top 4 an extra days rest. And then skip #5 on first day off in June. If you follow this(health permitting) In May/June you would have #5 line up on a couple Sunday games.

 

Or you use your #5 at best you can vs opponent's #4s or 5s. and Let the Offense win those games. It is supposed to look good at this time right? They've got their share towards making this team a winner. Down the stretch last year the Pitchers did their job and the hitters didn't. Yelich alone immensely improves the top of the order on consistency to help through the full season. Cain does as well(Health permitting)

FWIW, Yelich's avg exit velocity last season was 90.44. Only 1 Brewer avg'd above 90 and you won't guess. ML avg for '17 was 87.27. The Lone Brewer above 90? Jesus Aguilar at 91.87! Cain checked in above avg 88.85. Less Ks and harder contact.

 

So you are looking at an ability to maybe get by with 7 or 8? #5 starts in to June where Nelson may be on return status. I think Suter w/o adding another SP will do enough in that span. Not to beat a Clancy drum but, he did improve stats over '16 for last season. 7k/9 under .9HR/9. That beats his Fip may be calling with his 3.4 career ERA to 3.88 Fip career to date. He may not be a 33Game Starter you want, but Starting #5.5 he is producing very well.

 

My Gosh, I had no clue Suter was 6'5"! To pitch his velocity at that height? With his control? I would have just guessed he was around 6ft. That height certainly helps downward plane. Avg exit velocity vs him was only 83.12

 

Nelson, Anderson, and Davies were all above 85 but under 86. Woodruff happened to as well be 83.54.

 

Archer was 89.25 and Cobb 88.39 and Lynn 85.73.

 

Looking at all these numbers, the Brewers are better than League avg on Extension whereas those other three are below League avg. Ground Ball pitching by Milw.