Spring Training thread

[TJseven7]

Barnes reminding everyone he has options.

[DR28]

Barnes reminding everyone he has options.

 

I can see Hoover making the team over Barnes.

[tigerbrew]

The Asian guys Choi and Huira did well today.

[brewmann04]

Well, right when I was ready to get on the Junior Guerra bandwagon for a rotation spot, he's getting hit pretty hard so far today. The positive is at least he's sitting at 93-94 with his FB.

this is part of the issue with the guys battling for the last two spots.

Yo lucky to make the roster even in the pen

Miley is not the answer and not holding out hope for him to be a starter that last thru mid season

and for Guerra sorry think his first year was due to being knew to the league.

[wildcat83]

Barnes reminding everyone he has options.

 

I think there is zero chance that Barnes gets sent down to start the year.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Don't see the problem with the current list of starters going any shorter in games than most teams 4/5. And with an 8 man pen even less of a problem. Not to mention they'll have 2 or 3 guys in the pen who can go more than one inning.

 

All that said, I think many of you are under-estimating how many innings Suter can eat.

 

Davies 5.8

Anderson chacin 5.6

4-5 even if you think 5.2 is possible. (Suter woodruff or miley cuz guerra can't go past 4)

 

71.2 ip per bp arm with an 8 man pen.

 

Jeffress Barnes Albers look like 60 ip guys

Logan looks like a 40ip guy

Knebel hader 2 long men average 87ip? Ouch.

Knebel at 72... hader 2 longmen average 92.5? Ouch.

 

 

The NL averaged 5.4 innings per start last year. That's just the reality of baseball right now, and probably going forward. Like someone else said, the bullpen won't be 8 guys. It's going to be 12-13 guys, or more, over the course of the season. I'd guess we will see 2 guys, tops hit 70 innings.

[wildcat83]

See the MJS has an article that Anderson announced as the opening day starter

[KeithStone53151]

Don't see the problem with the current list of starters going any shorter in games than most teams 4/5. And with an 8 man pen even less of a problem. Not to mention they'll have 2 or 3 guys in the pen who can go more than one inning.

 

All that said, I think many of you are under-estimating how many innings Suter can eat.

 

Davies 5.8

Anderson chacin 5.6

4-5 even if you think 5.2 is possible. (Suter woodruff or miley cuz guerra can't go past 4)

 

71.2 ip per bp arm with an 8 man pen.

 

Jeffress Barnes Albers look like 60 ip guys

Logan looks like a 40ip guy

Knebel hader 2 long men average 87ip? Ouch.

Knebel at 72... hader 2 longmen average 92.5? Ouch.

 

 

The NL averaged 5.4 innings per start last year. That's just the reality of baseball right now, and probably going forward. Like someone else said, the bullpen won't be 8 guys. It's going to be 12-13 guys, or more, over the course of the season. I'd guess we will see 2 guys, tops hit 70 innings.

 

Even a lot of the high end starters(Carrasco, Keuchel, Lester, etc) are averaging maybe 6-6.25 innings per start. The premier guys like Sale are probably 6.5-6.75. Kershaw is probably the only guy approaching 7. If we can get 5.5-6 IP on average from our starters with under 4 ERA, that will be very competitive...especially with our bullpen.

[TJseven7]

We aren't getting that with these 5. There's no chance the 4-5 keep 5.8 5.6 5.6 over 5.5.

 

As for 5.4 being the nl average. We dragged that down last year with our non nelson anderson davies starts by a lot. That's average... i dont see it as acceptable.

[liveforoctober]

We aren't getting that with these 5. There's no chance the 4-5 keep 5.8 5.6 5.6 over 5.5.

 

As for 5.4 being the nl average. We dragged that down last year with our non nelson anderson davies starts by a lot. That's average... i dont see it as acceptable.

 

As far as our guys bringing the NL average down 'a lot' with our 4/5 starters... that just isn't true. Too many innings for our two spots to make a significant dent.

 

Just some quick longhand math.

 

15 (teams) x 162 (games) = 2430 games played by National League teams last year.

NL AvgInnPerStart = 5.4 x 2430 (games played) = 13,122 innings pitched by starting pitchers in the NL last year.

 

If we get obnoxious and hypothetically add 2 full innings onto every single start our 4/5 guys made (just to try to be drastic)... (and lets call it 65 starts) ... we will add 130 innings onto the NL total.

 

2017 NL hypothetical total innings with better Milwaukee 4/5 starters = 13,252.

13,252 = 2,430(x).

Divide both sides by 2,430.

 

The new NL total (average innings pitched by NL starter) if we gave every single start our 4/5 guys had an extra two innings would be an average of 5.45 innings. Even a drastic hypothetical hardly moves the needle.

 

If the major league average of pitches per game is currently sitting at 146 -> we are looking at 16.2 pitcher per inning (146/9).

If our inflated example of improving our 4/5 rotation guys came to fruition and we improved the NL average start by .05 innings ... we are talking about elongating the average start by NL pitchers by less than one pitch per start.

 

I hope you didn't take this as an obnoxious assault on your comment... I just like math.

[TJseven7]

We aren't getting that with these 5. There's no chance the 4-5 keep 5.8 5.6 5.6 over 5.5.

 

As for 5.4 being the nl average. We dragged that down last year with our non nelson anderson davies starts by a lot. That's average... i dont see it as acceptable.

 

Would you rather have a guy like a Suter who will go 5 and give up a run or two ... or a guy who will throw 7 innings consistently but will give up 4 on a regular basis? I'm not challenging your comment, but legitimately asking the question.

 

The ideal answer is you want a guy who can go 7 innings and only give up 1 or 2 runs ... but those guys are all stars and that is who everyone is after. There are only a handful of those guys in the league. If we have to settle for a couple of guys we are hoping to scratch 5+ innings out of and can get 'quality starts' ... I think that is extremely acceptable, especially from your 4/5.

 

It is ok to hope for better, but to expect it is pressing, in my opinion, because it is hard to get 5 studs in a rotation. Very few teams have it.

 

I want a hard platoon at 4... Guerra/suter. Should allow 3-4 runs and having 2 guys combine for 250+ ip rests the pen. You need innings eaten somehow.

 

As for your math... yeah I exaggerated what our starters outside of davies nelson anderson suter did (suter was included because he did well and basically covered abderson nelson injuries) to the nl average. Problem is nelson was our best... hes out. Chacin is not the same innings hog. The OTHER guys we started averaged 4.8ip. That's a pen disaster. I'm looking for a way to avoid that with a 4-5 that includes short start guys and/or broken parts. We arent going to get an ace who can suppress runs and go 6+ and some seem to think we'll have places to pitch suter jeffress yo barnes 2ip 2x a week and I think thats only the case if we suck. The choice I see is piggyback or pitch guys in situations where they can cost us wins.

 

Basically i hate "longmen" who suck, eat 2.2ip in a blowout, and then are sat on for a week because well we could need him tomorrow! Its a waste of a pen slot. Suter is too good for that role, Guerra is not best used in that role and anyone else in that role would be an innings drag, not an innings bonus. They aren't meant to pitch 1ip in a close game and there aren't 20-30 blowouts a year where they go in 3ip. I don't like a 7 man pen thats functionally a 6 man pen sans blowout or an 8 man pen thats a 7. You cant afford to waste a roster spot. Logan as a loogey (40ip) already adds wear to others.

 

If you go with our 3 sub 6ip guys and 2 more who will struggle to push past 5 you beat your pen to death. I agree pitching ideas need to change but the starter ips shrinking is a part of the solution... there's another piece of the puzzle teams haven't figured out yet because now the pens are wearing out. I also like our pens set up as is (no yo longman please) and I dont want to see barnes torres ip taxed puking.

 

Where we sit I'd be more comfortable with a 7 starter staff guerra/suter woodruff/miley platoons and 6 guys who are actually relievers with 2 being barnes jeffress who can eat 2 in rough patches. Leaves knebel hader albers logan to close the door. But your 3 starters average 5.7ip and the 2 platoons average 8. That at least gets bp innings near 65 without counting any ip from the piggybacks on throw days.

[FVBrewerFan]

If you go with our 3 sub 6ip guys and 2 more who will struggle to push past 5 you beat your pen to death. I agree pitching ideas need to change but the starter ips shrinking is a part of the solution... there's another piece of the puzzle teams haven't figured out yet because now the pens are wearing out. I also like our pens set up as is (no yo longman please) and I dont want to see barnes torres ip taxed puking.

 

Where we sit I'd be more comfortable with a 7 starter staff guerra/suter woodruff/miley platoons and 6 guys who are actually relievers with 2 being barnes jeffress who can eat 2 in rough patches. Leaves knebel hader albers logan to close the door. But your 3 starters average 5.7ip and the 2 platoons average 8. That at least gets bp innings near 65 without counting any ip from the piggybacks on throw days.

 

With your plan, I think you beat up the bullpen even more. You say the piggyback starters would average 8 innings? That wouldn't happen. If the game is close you would still use 2-3 more relievers. A LOOGY maybe, set-up man, closer. Plus, what happens when starter#1 or #2 can't get through an inning or two? That's going to happen. Just no way those piggybacks would average 8.

 

So basically what you're doing is cutting the bullpen from 8 to 6 arms, and they will be more over-worked. Plus, it still doesn't make sense to me why you would take a Suter or Miley out if they're cruising through 4 with a 6-1 lead. Yes, yes, they're not as effective 3rd time through the line-up. But with a 6-1 lead, 4-0 lead, etc. there's room for error. Sorry, just makes no sense to me to pull out a starter who could easily eat up 2-3 more innings just because it's time for the piggyback guy to come in. Lots of other reasons I don't like this idea, that's just some of them.

 

Why make it so rigid? Maybe those piggyback starters are needed in other games started by Anderson, Chacin, Davies. I think the key is having at least2-3 guys who can pitch multiple innings, and we'll have that.

[wildcat83]

Why are you spending so much time arguing about piggyback rotations when nobody from the Brewers organization ever said anything about it being a possibility or even thought about for that matter. It should be a non issue because there is ZERO chance that it ever happens.

 

This spring training thread has drifted vastly off of where they typically go. Where are all of the pictures and feedback from how guys looked live? Did all of the usual spring training attendees take the year off? I greatly looked forward to feedback on how guys look in spring, especially pitchers. I trust the eyeball test over looking at random ST stat lines that can be greatly skewed depending on what each individual is working on.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Why are you spending so much time arguing about piggyback rotations when nobody from the Brewers organization ever said anything about it being a possibility or even thought about for that matter. It should be a non issue because there is ZERO chance that it ever happens.

 

This spring training thread has drifted vastly off of where they typically go. Where are all of the pictures and feedback from how guys looked live? Did all of the usual spring training attendees take the year off? I greatly looked forward to feedback on how guys look in spring, especially pitchers. I trust the eyeball test over looking at random ST stat lines that can be greatly skewed depending on what each individual is working on.

 

I laughed out loud reading this, as I was thinking the same thing. This isn't some rookie league team babying 17-year-old hurlers who graduated high school a month ago. They aren't going to piggyback their pitchers.

 

As far as the eyeball test goes, J.J. Hoover and Brett Suter look terrific. Hoover probably has a spot in the pen, and I think Suter is the #4 in the rotation, barring an acquisition. Hiura looks like the real deal as the 2B of the future.

[brewcrewdue80]

We aren't getting that with these 5. There's no chance the 4-5 keep 5.8 5.6 5.6 over 5.5.

 

As for 5.4 being the nl average. We dragged that down last year with our non nelson anderson davies starts by a lot. That's average... i dont see it as acceptable.

 

As far as our guys bringing the NL average down 'a lot' with our 4/5 starters... that just isn't true. Too many innings for our two spots to make a significant dent.

 

Just some quick longhand math.

 

15 (teams) x 162 (games) = 2430 games played by National League teams last year.

NL AvgInnPerStart = 5.4 x 2430 (games played) = 13,122 innings pitched by starting pitchers in the NL last year.

 

If we get obnoxious and hypothetically add 2 full innings onto every single start our 4/5 guys made (just to try to be drastic)... (and lets call it 65 starts) ... we will add 130 innings onto the NL total.

 

2017 NL hypothetical total innings with better Milwaukee 4/5 starters = 13,252.

13,252 = 2,430(x).

Divide both sides by 2,430.

 

The new NL total (average innings pitched by NL starter) if we gave every single start our 4/5 guys had an extra two innings would be an average of 5.45 innings. Even a drastic hypothetical hardly moves the needle.

 

If the major league average of pitches per game is currently sitting at 146 -> we are looking at 16.2 pitcher per inning (146/9).

If our inflated example of improving our 4/5 rotation guys came to fruition and we improved the NL average start by .05 innings ... we are talking about elongating the average start by NL pitchers by less than one pitch per start.

 

I hope you didn't take this as an obnoxious assault on your comment... I just like math.

 

The thing on 5.4 avg IP per start is negating IP missed on a Pitcher leaving a game due to injury earlier than they normally would have pitched. Albeit small, Nelson left after 5 when he was injured. Only at 72 pitch count. That could have been 2IP but he missed out on that due to the sad injury.

 

I think there were instances of 1st IP removals on occasion.

 

Edit: Stroman leaving after an ejection on 1.2IP as an example.

[TJseven7]

Why are you spending so much time arguing about piggyback rotations when nobody from the Brewers organization ever said anything about it being a possibility or even thought about for that matter. It should be a non issue because there is ZERO chance that it ever happens.

 

This spring training thread has drifted vastly off of where they typically go. Where are all of the pictures and feedback from how guys looked live? Did all of the usual spring training attendees take the year off? I greatly looked forward to feedback on how guys look in spring, especially pitchers. I trust the eyeball test over looking at random ST stat lines that can be greatly skewed depending on what each individual is working on.

 

I laughed out loud reading this, as I was thinking the same thing. This isn't some rookie league team babying 17-year-old hurlers who graduated high school a month ago. They aren't going to piggyback their pitchers.

 

As far as the eyeball test goes, J.J. Hoover and Brett Suter look terrific. Hoover probably has a spot in the pen, and I think Suter is the #4 in the rotation, barring an acquisition. Hiura looks like the real deal as the 2B of the future.

 

Shifting the defense will never work look at the gap to hit to.

You need a 6th 7th 8th 9th inning guy so they can be comfortable.

You manufactor runs because scoring is hard to do.

 

This isn't rookie ball.

 

Ok kill the pen. Watch them implode and blow games. Its what the dinosaurs would want.

[TJseven7]

If you go with our 3 sub 6ip guys and 2 more who will struggle to push past 5 you beat your pen to death. I agree pitching ideas need to change but the starter ips shrinking is a part of the solution... there's another piece of the puzzle teams haven't figured out yet because now the pens are wearing out. I also like our pens set up as is (no yo longman please) and I dont want to see barnes torres ip taxed puking.

 

Where we sit I'd be more comfortable with a 7 starter staff guerra/suter woodruff/miley platoons and 6 guys who are actually relievers with 2 being barnes jeffress who can eat 2 in rough patches. Leaves knebel hader albers logan to close the door. But your 3 starters average 5.7ip and the 2 platoons average 8. That at least gets bp innings near 65 without counting any ip from the piggybacks on throw days.

 

With your plan, I think you beat up the bullpen even more. You say the piggyback starters would average 8 innings? That wouldn't happen. If the game is close you would still use 2-3 more relievers. A LOOGY maybe, set-up man, closer. Plus, what happens when starter#1 or #2 can't get through an inning or two? That's going to happen. Just no way those piggybacks would average 8.

 

So basically what you're doing is cutting the bullpen from 8 to 6 arms, and they will be more over-worked. Plus, it still doesn't make sense to me why you would take a Suter or Miley out if they're cruising through 4 with a 6-1 lead. Yes, yes, they're not as effective 3rd time through the line-up. But with a 6-1 lead, 4-0 lead, etc. there's room for error. Sorry, just makes no sense to me to pull out a starter who could easily eat up 2-3 more innings just because it's time for the piggyback guy to come in. Lots of other reasons I don't like this idea, that's just some of them.

 

Why make it so rigid? Maybe those piggyback starters are needed in other games started by Anderson, Chacin, Davies. I think the key is having at least2-3 guys who can pitch multiple innings, and we'll have that.

 

Numbers say you don't beat up the pen more. If the game is close you want to use 2-3 relief pitchers. 2 max 8th and 9th. But likely no i dont. That's old thinking. What if your starter can't go through an inning or 2? You lose. The other guy comes in an tries to eat 6.

 

Why take suter miley out after 4 innings cruising? Where do they come up in the order? How many outs? Anyone on? Have they faced the lineup twice? I trust the next guy to pick up the lead and run with it. Its his job. You could squeeze a 5th if the right situation presents itself. That makes for a day where 2 guys go 9 ip. Up 4-0 faced 15, not due up. Ok go 5 and let the other guy finish it because he shouldnt allow 4 in 4ip. You can say he could eat 2-3 more ip and he could also decline and flame out and blow the lead. I'm playing numbers... your pointing to hypotheticals that would lead to a loss no matter how you pitch it.

 

Why so rigid? To save the pen. What if one of the top 3 implode... well if its anderson, guerra suter are on their throw day. If its davies, woodruff miley are on their throw day. They can each go 30-40 pitches. If its chacin... load up barnes jeffress and logans throwing a full ip. You will likely lose anyway so who cares. Just get the game over with in the least taxing manor possible.

 

They can average 8... they can also cover 1 of the 3 starters if all goes wrong. They can cover their piggyback guy if he implodes. If the 2nd guy in the piggyback implodes, well, that sucks. Time for the pen.

[DR28]

Think we just found our OD lineup...

 

This is today's lineup

 

1. Lorenzo Cain ® CF

2. Christian Yelich (L) RF MOVE TO LF

3. Ryan Braun ® 1B

4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B

5. Eric Thames (L) DH INSERT SANTANTA

6. Jonathan Villar (S) 2B

7. Jett Bandy ® C INSERT PINA

8. Eric Sogard (L) SS INSERT ARCIA

[markedman5]

No spot for him but G-man keeps raking......

[markedman5]

Cain and Yelich at the top of the order make me smile....

[Devinep]

Think we just found our OD lineup...

 

This is today's lineup

 

1. Lorenzo Cain ® CF

2. Christian Yelich (L) RF MOVE TO LF

3. Ryan Braun ® 1B

4. Travis Shaw (L) 3B

5. Eric Thames (L) DH INSERT SANTANTA

6. Jonathan Villar (S) 2B

7. Jett Bandy ® C INSERT PINA

8. Eric Sogard (L) SS INSERT ARCIA

 

There is a definite top 5 and huge drop off for the bottom.

[FVBrewerFan]

If the game is close you want to use 2-3 relief pitchers. 2 max 8th and 9th. But likely no i dont. That's old thinking.

 

If old thinking is having Knebel close a tight game in the 9th instead of Guerra or Miley....yea I'm old.

 

Anyhow, that's my last word. As Wildcat said, this is the ST thread, so he's right we shouldn't be discussing this here.

[TJseven7]

If the game is close you want to use 2-3 relief pitchers. 2 max 8th and 9th. But likely no i dont. That's old thinking.

 

If old thinking is having Knebel close a tight game in the 9th instead of Guerra or Miley....yea I'm old.

 

Anyhow, that's my last word. As Wildcat said, this is the ST thread, so he's right we shouldn't be discussing this here.

 

Well that's 1 inning not 2-3 rp.

[wildcat83]

I keep posting that I don't care about ST stats, but I dislike Knebel giving up a run every time out. Hopefully put up a few scoreless innings as spring closes.

[TJseven7]

I keep posting that I don't care about ST stats, but I dislike Knebel giving up a run every time out. Hopefully put up a few scoreless innings as spring closes.

 

Its sure not comforting.