Top 50 Free Agent Review

[topper09er]

It is more and more looking like the only collusion going on is between Boras clients who he is counselling to all hold out in a united front

[KeithStone53151]

I think I've made my opinion known, I'm going to shift gears to get closer to on track.

 

The remaining players that I think have a chance to get major league contracts as SP include Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn, Dickey, Feldman, Hellickson, Lackey, Peavy, Tillman, Lincecum. Of those 10, there are 4 or 5 significant reaches. Most of what I haven't listed will probably sign minor league deals fairly soon(Jimenez/Locke/Cahill/etc). We've also had 3 SP sign so far in the last 2 days, with them skipping tiers I have been wondering if either of Cobb/Lynn have agreements in principle with a specific team while they sort out final details(a 3-5 year contract will likely be more complex than the 1-2 year deals we've seen). I guess my point is that I could see the SP side of things(less Arrieta) reaching conclusion fairly soon. Position players likely aren't in as much of a rush as the SP, heck a guy like Hosmer could probably sign a week before opening day and be ready on time.

[TJseven7]

Representation of players that have signed. Agent information from baseball-reference.com

 

1. Yu Darvish – PREDICTION: Cubs. Six years, $160MM. ACUTAL: Cubs. Six years, $126M - Joel Wolfe and Nick Chanock

7. Lorenzo Cain – PREDICTION: Giants. Four years, $70MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Five years, $80M - Joshua Kusnick

8. Wade Davis – PREDICTION: Astros. Four years, $60MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $52M - Jet Sports Management

12. Carlos Santana – PREDICTION: Indians. Three years, $45MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Three years, $60M - Octagon

13. Zack Cozart – PREDICTION: Padres. Three years, $42MM. ACTUAL: Padres. Three years, $38M - Excel Sports Management

14. Jay Bruce – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Three years, $39M - Matt Sosnick

16. Addison Reed – PREDICTION: Cubs. Four years, $36MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $16,75M - Wasserman Media Group

17. Todd Frazier – PREDICTION: Mets. Three years, $33MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $17M - CAA Sports

18. Mike Minor – PREDICTION: Dodgers. Four years, $28MM. ACTUAL: Rangers. Three years, $28M - Jet Sports Management

19. Brandon Morrow – PREDICTION: Rockies. Three years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $21M - Wasserman Media

21. CC Sabathia – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Yankees. One year, $10M - Roc Nation Sports

22. Yonder Alonso – PREDICTION: Angels. Two years, $22MM. ACTUAL: Indians. Two years, $16M - MVP Sports Group

24. Juan Nicasio – PREDICTION: Twins. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Mariners. Two years, $17M - Reynolds Sports Management

25. Bryan Shaw – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M - Rowley Sports Management

27. Andrew Cashner – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. Two years, $16M - CAA Sports

29. Tyler Chatwood – PREDICTION: Phillies. Three years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Three years, $39M - Bob Garber

30. Jake McGee – Cubs. PREDICTION: Three years, $18MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M - Wasserman Media Group

31. Jaime Garcia – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Blue Jays. One year, $10M - Melvin Roman

32. Alex Avila – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Diamondbacks. Two years, $8.25M - Excel Sports Management

33. Jhoulys Chacin – PREDICTION: Reds. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Two years, $16M. - Rep 1 Baseball

34. Welington Castillo – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: White Sox. Two years, $15M - ISE Baseball

35. Eduardo Nunez – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Red Sox. One year, amount unknown. - ISE Baseball

36. Anthony Swarzak – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $14M - Jet Sports Management

37. Steve Cishek – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $13M - Jet Sports Management

38. Brandon Kintzler – PREDICTION: Nationals. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $10M - No agent listed

41. Tommy Hunter – PREDICTION: Braves. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $18M - Moye Sports Associates

43. Pat Neshek – PREDICTION: Mariners. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $16.25 - Meister Sports Management

45. Howie Kendrick – PREDICTION: Giants. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $7M - Larry Reynolds

49. Michael Pineda – PREDICTION: Rays. Two years, $6MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $10M - ISE Baseball

50. Miles Mikolas – PREDICTION: Padres. Two years, $10MM. ACTUAL: Cardinals. Two years, $15.5M - No agent listed

 

 

It would be easier for me to buy that teams are colluding to screw over Boras than free agents as a whole. That guy is just dreadful for baseball. All these good players sitting out, I 100% blame him. Him holding out like he is is causing other players not to be signed. I bet the Jon Jay' s and Carlos Gonzalez's of the world would be signed to deals if the rest of the outfield market wasn't holding up the middle class of outfielders.

 

It doesn't even have to be the FOs at all. Basically this guy has picked audacious numbers that his clients "deserve," and like a 3 year old not getting the candy he wants, has laid down tantruming in the middle of the aisle throwing a fit and has asked his clients to do the same.

 

He's been unwilling to come off his asking price. The league has collectively said he is asking too much. You dont have to collude to all decide these prices are absurd and you aren't paying them.

[danzig6767]

Scott Boras is turned into a villain by ownership because he demands fair value for the players he represents, which is exactly what a good agent does for his client. I used to be in the "I hate Boras" camp too, but within the last few years I've begun to realize that all that mentality does is help the owners in their demonization of the players for wanting their fair share of revenue. I want less money for the owners and more for the players, therefore Boras is good.

I agree that it's the main job of an agent to get the most money possible for his players and Boras has been good at this, that's why he gets so many upper level players.

 

Then again, even though Boras generally is effective, he often employs a risky strategy and sometimes his clients get burned by this. Just this offseason, it's been reported that Holland and Boras turned down 3yr/52 million from Colorado because they pushed for a 4th year and the Rockies instead gave that same contract to Wade Davis. Now Holland looks like he may need luck to get half of that 52 million or get stuck taking another one year deal.

 

Gonna be interesting to see how things play out for the rest of his unsigned clients because i don't think anyone really knows right now.

[jerichoholicninja]

Scott Boras is turned into a villain by ownership because he demands fair value for the players he represents, which is exactly what a good agent does for his client. I used to be in the "I hate Boras" camp too, but within the last few years I've begun to realize that all that mentality does is help the owners in their demonization of the players for wanting their fair share of revenue. I want less money for the owners and more for the players, therefore Boras is good.

I agree that it's the main job of an agent to get the most money possible for his players and Boras has been good at this, that's why he gets so many upper level players.

 

Then again, even though Boras generally is effective, he often employs a risky strategy and sometimes his clients get burned by this. Just this offseason, it's been reported that Holland and Boras turned down 3yr/52 million from Colorado because they pushed for a 4th year and the Rockies instead gave that same contract to Wade Davis. Now Holland looks like he may need luck to get half of that 52 million or get stuck taking another one year deal.

 

Gonna be interesting to see how things play out for the rest of his unsigned clients because i don't think anyone really knows right now.

 

The thing about Boras is that it really doesn't matter to him if Holland or any one particular player doesn't make bank because Scott has 4 or 5 guys that will get paid. That's where he'll get his money and headlines. He gets to spread out his risk and make outrageous demands for all his clients knowing only a couple will get ridiculous contracts, some will get "fair" contracts, and others will get left picking up the scraps in February. I feel a little bad for those guys who could have gotten modest, multiyear deals but gambled and get the shaft before spring training, but they knew what they were getting into when they signed with Boras.

[danzig6767]

I agree that it's the main job of an agent to get the most money possible for his players and Boras has been good at this, that's why he gets so many upper level players.

 

Then again, even though Boras generally is effective, he often employs a risky strategy and sometimes his clients get burned by this. Just this offseason, it's been reported that Holland and Boras turned down 3yr/52 million from Colorado because they pushed for a 4th year and the Rockies instead gave that same contract to Wade Davis. Now Holland looks like he may need luck to get half of that 52 million or get stuck taking another one year deal.

 

Gonna be interesting to see how things play out for the rest of his unsigned clients because i don't think anyone really knows right now.

The thing about Boras is that it really doesn't matter to him if Holland or any one particular player doesn't make bank because Scott has 4 or 5 guys that will get paid. That's where he'll get his money and headlines. He gets to spread out his risk and make outrageous demands for all his clients knowing only a couple will get ridiculous contracts, some will get "fair" contracts, and others will get left picking up the scraps in February. I feel a little bad for those guys who could have gotten modest, multiyear deals but gambled and get the shaft before spring training, but they knew what they were getting into when they signed with Boras.

One thing in defense of Boras and all agents really in all pro sports is the agent does work for the athlete.

 

So take Holland for example. Boras may have advised Holland to push for a 4th year, but in the end, Holland had the choice to say no, i'm accepting this offer from Colorado. Same for any athlete. At some point when offers come in, it is up to the player to accept one or not, regardless of the advice an agent gives. Holland rolled the dice that the advice Boras gave was accurate about demanding a 4th year and he looks to have been burned by doing so.

[wallus]

On the list of agents for players signed Joshua Kusnick was not the agent for Lorenzo Cain as he has talked about being fired by him

 

Agent information is from the player pages on Baseball Reference. I apologize for any errors, I just went with what they have as I don't have the time to verify that their information is 100% correct.

 

Just did a five minute search on who Cain's current representation is and I couldn't find the answer. Found several articles regarding Cain not working with Kusnick anymore. But other sites like Spotrac still lists Kusnick as his agent.

 

Also updated the post changing Cain's representation to "?"

 

Cain's agent is Damon Lapa per jsonline.

[TJseven7]

I agree that it's the main job of an agent to get the most money possible for his players and Boras has been good at this, that's why he gets so many upper level players.

 

Then again, even though Boras generally is effective, he often employs a risky strategy and sometimes his clients get burned by this. Just this offseason, it's been reported that Holland and Boras turned down 3yr/52 million from Colorado because they pushed for a 4th year and the Rockies instead gave that same contract to Wade Davis. Now Holland looks like he may need luck to get half of that 52 million or get stuck taking another one year deal.

 

Gonna be interesting to see how things play out for the rest of his unsigned clients because i don't think anyone really knows right now.

The thing about Boras is that it really doesn't matter to him if Holland or any one particular player doesn't make bank because Scott has 4 or 5 guys that will get paid. That's where he'll get his money and headlines. He gets to spread out his risk and make outrageous demands for all his clients knowing only a couple will get ridiculous contracts, some will get "fair" contracts, and others will get left picking up the scraps in February. I feel a little bad for those guys who could have gotten modest, multiyear deals but gambled and get the shaft before spring training, but they knew what they were getting into when they signed with Boras.

One thing in defense of Boras and all agents really in all pro sports is the agent does work for the athlete.

 

So take Holland for example. Boras may have advised Holland to push for a 4th year, but in the end, Holland had the choice to say no, i'm accepting this offer from Colorado. Same for any athlete. At some point when offers come in, it is up to the player to accept one or not, regardless of the advice an agent gives. Holland rolled the dice that the advice Boras gave was accurate about demanding a 4th year and he looks to have been burned by doing so.

 

This in combination is exactly my issue with Boras that doesn't effect my opinion of most agents. Super agents like him aren't representing their client as much as they are trying to set the market. Most other agents are just trying to do whats best for their player without the audacious leverage play. The "collusion" crap is Boras holding out his players and tantruming. Hes the one pointing at the front offices. Look at every league. Dramatic cap increases lead to power agents driving the market into spend it all mode. At some point those deals prove absurd and all but the elite players take a massive pay hit as teams wait for those crap deals expire. Thats league wide in the mlb right now. Too many long term deals that are worthless. All low war players taking short term deals. Even the top of the market... which is a lot of solid but not elite impact players are getting squeezed. Harper Machado etc wont get squeezed next year... they are elite. Everything thats not elite is going to get squeezed until the long term depreciating into garbage deals clear.

 

As for Holland, Boras screwed him. Why on earth would you hire an agent then tell him no. He's supposed to be the expert. He listened to the guy like he's supposed to and that ahat left his client in a bad spot to fight for his own market control. Boras screwed up. I hope everyone who doesn't expect to sign a deal for over 100 mil leaves his agency because 100 mil clients are the only guys boras actually represents.

 

17 mil aav was an amazing get for Holland at 32-34. 35 at 17 mil would be absurd. Maybe he's great then and earns 12/1 at 35. Who knows but 17 mil per for 3 years at that age is a great deal. 17 mil for that 4th year looks like absolute disaster. 34/2 seems reasonable.

 

Boras needs to get it through his head... teams will pay production. Just not for years and years past their prime and well into their decline. This was inevitable due to fully guaranteed contracts and burning teams on them for a decade.

[Boomer5]

Padres land Hosmer

[TJseven7]

Boras shoots and scores and a bunch of people around the internet say its an overpay. Boras... champion of fair value. Lol.

[reillymcshane]

With Hosmer (a Boros client) signing, it might signal that other guys are getting ready to make a decision.

 

The market is what it is at this point. Guys will eventually make a decision, and it seems like the longer a player waits, the lower his contract is going to become.

 

I'm not putting it past some guys to wait things out - like Lohse did a few years ago - and see if a team gets desperate after an injury or something. But there's a lot of risk there. Teams seem to be setting budgets and sticking to them. The longer a player waits, the more the money dries up. More than likely they're stuck with a one year deal at a low price.

[TJseven7]

With Hosmer (a Boros client) signing, it might signal that other guys are getting ready to make a decision.

 

The market is what it is at this point. Guys will eventually make a decision, and it seems like the longer a player waits, the lower his contract is going to become.

 

I'm not putting it past some guys to wait things out - like Lohse did a few years ago - and see if a team gets desperate after an injury or something. But there's a lot of risk there. Teams seem to be setting budgets and sticking to them. The longer a player waits, the more the money dries up. More than likely they're stuck with a one year deal at a low price.

 

I wish this was the case but I think this is the first time Boras got a team to sign off on something stupid. The others are waiting for their stupid offer. 144 mil over 8 years isnt a bargain especially when he can opt it to a 105/5. This dude got Darvish money.

 

6 years 10.1 war... 1 year 4 war. Not getting paid for 2 war 7 year average. Not getting paid for the 1.7 war average prior to last year. Thats 21 mil per based on last year and a stuck with him 39/3 kicker.

[reillymcshane]

1. Yu Darvish – PREDICTION: Cubs. Six years, $160MM. ACUTAL: Cubs. Six years, $126M

2. J.D. Martinez – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Six years, $150MM.

3. Eric Hosmer – PREDICTION: Royals. Six years, $132MM. ACTUAL: Padres, eight years, $144M (or opt out after five years, $105M)

4. Jake Arrieta – PREDICTION: Brewers. Four years, $100MM.

5. Masahiro Tanaka – PREDICTION: Phillies. Five years, $100MM. ACTUAL: Opted into Yankees contract.

6. Mike Moustakas – PREDICTION: Braves. Five years, $85MM.

7. Lorenzo Cain – PREDICTION: Giants. Four years, $70MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Five years, $80M

8. Wade Davis – PREDICTION: Astros. Four years, $60MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $52M

9. Lance Lynn – PREDICTION: Rangers. Four years, $56MM.

10. Greg Holland – PREDICTION: Cardinals. Four years, $50MM.

11. Alex Cobb – PREDICTION: Twins. Four years, $48MM.

12. Carlos Santana – PREDICTION: Indians. Three years, $45MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Three years, $60M

13. Zack Cozart – PREDICTION: Padres. Three years, $42MM. ACTUAL: Padres. Three years, $38M

14. Jay Bruce – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Three years, $39M

15. Logan Morrison – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $36MM.

16. Addison Reed – PREDICTION: Cubs. Four years, $36MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $16,75M

17. Todd Frazier – PREDICTION: Mets. Three years, $33MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $17M

18. Mike Minor – PREDICTION: Dodgers. Four years, $28MM. ACTUAL: Rangers. Three years, $28M

19. Brandon Morrow – PREDICTION: Rockies. Three years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $21M

20. Jonathan Lucroy – PREDICTION: Rockies. Two years, $24MM.

21. CC Sabathia – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Yankees. One year, $10M

22. Yonder Alonso – PREDICTION: Angels. Two years, $22MM. ACTUAL: Indians. Two years, $16M

23. Carlos Gomez – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $22MM.

24. Juan Nicasio – PREDICTION: Twins. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Mariners. Two years, $17M

25. Bryan Shaw – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M

26. Michael Brantley – PREDICTION: White Sox. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Indians exercised option.

27. Andrew Cashner – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. Two years, $16M

28. Neil Walker – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $20MM.

29. Tyler Chatwood – PREDICTION: Phillies. Three years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Three years, $39M

30. Jake McGee – Cubs. PREDICTION: Three years, $18MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M

31. Jaime Garcia – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Blue Jays. One year, $10M

32. Alex Avila – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Diamondbacks. Two years, $8.25M

33. Jhoulys Chacin – PREDICTION: Reds. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Two years, $16M.

34. Welington Castillo – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: White Sox. Two years, $15M

35. Eduardo Nunez – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Red Sox. One year, $6M.

36. Anthony Swarzak – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $14M

37. Steve Cishek – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $13M

38. Brandon Kintzler – PREDICTION: Nationals. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $10M

39. Jon Jay – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM.

40. Carlos Gonzalez – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $12MM.

41. Tommy Hunter – PREDICTION: Braves. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $18M

42. Jarrod Dyson – PREDICTION: Pirates. Two years, $12MM.

43. Pat Neshek – PREDICTION: Mariners. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $16.25

44. Tony Watson – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Giants. Three years, $7M

45. Howie Kendrick – PREDICTION: Giants. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $7M

46. Jason Vargas – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $16M

47. Chris Tillman – PREDICTION: Tigers. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. One year, $3M

48. Lucas Duda – PREDICTION: Mariners. One year, $6MM.

49. Michael Pineda – PREDICTION: Rays. Two years, $6MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $10M

50. Miles Mikolas – PREDICTION: Padres. Two years, $10MM. ACTUAL: Cardinals. Two years, $15.5M

 

Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

It's interesting to see where things are landing. Pitchers are, on the whole, have done well (particularly relievers). Most pitchers have come close to their prediction - or exceeded it. Again, not every pitcher, but most of them. The ones who have under performed (under predicted?) waited longer than the other guys (Watson, Reed) - indicating available funds aren't there.

 

It will be fascinating to see where Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn and Holland end up. Other than these top tier guys, all the pitchers have been signed.

 

The hitters are seeing bigger drops. The guys at the top who have signed have done fine, but you're seeing some pretty steep discounts on other guys. Also, a lot of hitters are still available (of the players ranked outside of the Top 10, all are hitters except one), which makes me believe the offers aren't going to come close to meeting the predictions. I think we'll see a lot of one year deals - for modest amounts - struck in the next few weeks.

[KeithStone53151]

1. Yu Darvish – PREDICTION: Cubs. Six years, $160MM. ACUTAL: Cubs. Six years, $126M

2. J.D. Martinez – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Six years, $150MM.

3. Eric Hosmer – PREDICTION: Royals. Six years, $132MM. ACTUAL: Padres, eight years, $144M (or opt out after five years, $105M)

4. Jake Arrieta – PREDICTION: Brewers. Four years, $100MM.

5. Masahiro Tanaka – PREDICTION: Phillies. Five years, $100MM. ACTUAL: Opted into Yankees contract.

6. Mike Moustakas – PREDICTION: Braves. Five years, $85MM.

7. Lorenzo Cain – PREDICTION: Giants. Four years, $70MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Five years, $80M

8. Wade Davis – PREDICTION: Astros. Four years, $60MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $52M

9. Lance Lynn – PREDICTION: Rangers. Four years, $56MM.

10. Greg Holland – PREDICTION: Cardinals. Four years, $50MM.

11. Alex Cobb – PREDICTION: Twins. Four years, $48MM.

12. Carlos Santana – PREDICTION: Indians. Three years, $45MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Three years, $60M

13. Zack Cozart – PREDICTION: Padres. Three years, $42MM. ACTUAL: Padres. Three years, $38M

14. Jay Bruce – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Three years, $39MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Three years, $39M

15. Logan Morrison – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $36MM.

16. Addison Reed – PREDICTION: Cubs. Four years, $36MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $16,75M

17. Todd Frazier – PREDICTION: Mets. Three years, $33MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $17M

18. Mike Minor – PREDICTION: Dodgers. Four years, $28MM. ACTUAL: Rangers. Three years, $28M

19. Brandon Morrow – PREDICTION: Rockies. Three years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $21M

20. Jonathan Lucroy – PREDICTION: Rockies. Two years, $24MM.

21. CC Sabathia – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $24MM. ACTUAL: Yankees. One year, $10M

22. Yonder Alonso – PREDICTION: Angels. Two years, $22MM. ACTUAL: Indians. Two years, $16M

23. Carlos Gomez – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $22MM.

24. Juan Nicasio – PREDICTION: Twins. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Mariners. Two years, $17M

25. Bryan Shaw – PREDICTION: Red Sox. Three years, $21MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M

26. Michael Brantley – PREDICTION: White Sox. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Indians exercised option.

27. Andrew Cashner – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. Two years, $16M

28. Neil Walker – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $20MM.

29. Tyler Chatwood – PREDICTION: Phillies. Three years, $20MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Three years, $39M

30. Jake McGee – Cubs. PREDICTION: Three years, $18MM. ACTUAL: Rockies. Three years, $27M

31. Jaime Garcia – PREDICTION: Royals. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Blue Jays. One year, $10M

32. Alex Avila – PREDICTION: Yankees. Two years, $16MM. ACTUAL: Diamondbacks. Two years, $8.25M

33. Jhoulys Chacin – PREDICTION: Reds. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Brewers. Two years, $16M.

34. Welington Castillo – PREDICTION: Athletics. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: White Sox. Two years, $15M

35. Eduardo Nunez – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Red Sox. One year, $6M.

36. Anthony Swarzak – PREDICTION: Brewers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $14M

37. Steve Cishek – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Cubs. Two years, $13M

38. Brandon Kintzler – PREDICTION: Nationals. Two years, $14MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $10M

39. Jon Jay – PREDICTION: Rangers. Two years, $14MM.

40. Carlos Gonzalez – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $12MM.

41. Tommy Hunter – PREDICTION: Braves. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $18M

42. Jarrod Dyson – PREDICTION: Pirates. Two years, $12MM.

43. Pat Neshek – PREDICTION: Mariners. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Phillies. Two years, $16.25

44. Tony Watson – PREDICTION: Blue Jays. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Giants. Three years, $7M

45. Howie Kendrick – PREDICTION: Giants. Two years, $12MM. ACTUAL: Nationals. Two years, $7M

46. Jason Vargas – PREDICTION: Orioles. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Mets. Two years, $16M

47. Chris Tillman – PREDICTION: Tigers. One year, $10MM. ACTUAL: Orioles. One year, $3M

48. Lucas Duda – PREDICTION: Mariners. One year, $6MM.

49. Michael Pineda – PREDICTION: Rays. Two years, $6MM. ACTUAL: Twins. Two years, $10M

50. Miles Mikolas – PREDICTION: Padres. Two years, $10MM. ACTUAL: Cardinals. Two years, $15.5M

 

I rolled this forward with some recent signings. It's notable how many Boras clients have signed in the last handful of days. Still 11 of the top 50 left to go. Crazy how little Gomez got. Instead of 2/$22, he gets 1/$4. I think all the pitchers get reasonably paid, Moose and Morrison might really get the shaft off their solid seasons. I could see 1/$10 type deals for them...which considering their initial asking prices is seriously insane.