What if we don't add a starter?

[TJseven7]

Davies hits arby soon. Davies is a boras client. Thus no arby buyout extension coming. It would be a deal to add to the farm.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Davies hits arby soon. It would be a deal to add to the farm.

 

Not until 2019, and pitchers rarely make huge dollars their first year of arb.

[TJseven7]

Yeah and that's the prime time to trade them out because of that.

 

I think we are getting very close to the proper time to sell davies and knebel.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Yeah and that's the prime time to trade them out because of that.

 

I think we are getting very close to the proper time to sell davies and knebel.

 

If this were a club still in the midst of a rebuild, I'd agree. But the moves they made this offseason are a strong counter to that philosophy. I can't see them trading their closer and a young cost-controlled starter. Subtraction by addition works when you have a surplus at a given position (i.e. outfield), but not when you are talking about the pitching staff.

[tmwiese55]

Do all we can to acquire young cost controlled talent then want to trade them a year or two after they show they're good in order to get other young guys to trade once they're good. The life of a Brewers fan

[TJseven7]

Nelson anderson cobb davies burnes woodruff chacin is not a surplus? Ignoring Ortiz Ponce and other farm talent its a surplus.

 

Knebel Hader albers peralta williams houser jeffress barnes lopez suter is not a surplus?

 

You have 2 choices... all in and look at very likely rebuild in 2022

Turn over a few pieces that can get big assets and replace from within.

 

They say they want to contend consistently. That's option 2.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nelson anderson cobb davies burnes woodruff chacin is not a surplus? Ignoring Ortiz Ponce and other farm talent its a surplus.

 

Knebel Hader albers peralta williams houser jeffress barnes lopez suter is not a surplus?

 

You have 2 choices... all in and look at very likely rebuild in 2022

Turn over a few pieces that can get big assets and replace from within.

 

They say they want to contend consistently. That's option 2.

 

I can't think of a time any contending team did Option 2.

[TJseven7]

To add... they already did it with thorn. He's been very active on both buying out arby and shopping guys early. (Villar Anderson...Domingo Thorny)

 

Next year knebels arby will be as expensive as any reliever he's added and the only one who fits that mold was coaxed by our manager. Even this year when spending on the pen would have made sense he went penny stock albers jeffress logan, traded for penny stock jeffress webb swarzak.

 

A pattern is starting to gain relevance.

[TJseven7]

Nelson anderson cobb davies burnes woodruff chacin is not a surplus? Ignoring Ortiz Ponce and other farm talent its a surplus.

 

Knebel Hader albers peralta williams houser jeffress barnes lopez suter is not a surplus?

 

You have 2 choices... all in and look at very likely rebuild in 2022

Turn over a few pieces that can get big assets and replace from within.

 

They say they want to contend consistently. That's option 2.

 

I can't think of a time any contending team did Option 2.

 

Has a contending team shopped their best bat from the previous season pre arby? Domingo was shopped prior to Yelich. Cain was known since november but landing yelich came after domingo got shopped. If the right offers there and we don't add yelich, phillips is the rf... replace from within.

 

I don't think he's seeking pieces as much as he's seeking statistical "break points." To contend you need era at such, run production as such. Excess above and beyond those marks are unnecessary and up for sale. Back loading the farm will keep the team in contention long term. You build to contend every year and in thise multiple chances a title will come.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nelson anderson cobb davies burnes woodruff chacin is not a surplus? Ignoring Ortiz Ponce and other farm talent its a surplus.

 

Knebel Hader albers peralta williams houser jeffress barnes lopez suter is not a surplus?

 

You have 2 choices... all in and look at very likely rebuild in 2022

Turn over a few pieces that can get big assets and replace from within.

 

They say they want to contend consistently. That's option 2.

 

I can't think of a time any contending team did Option 2.

 

Has a contending team shopped their best bat from the previous season pre arby? Domingo was shopped prior to Yelich. Cain was known since november but landing yelich came after domingo got shopped. If the right offers there and we don't add yelich, phillips is the rf... replace from within.

 

I don't think he's seeking pieces as much as he's seeking statistical "break points." To contend you need era at such, run production as such. Excess above and beyond those marks are unnecessary and up for sale. Back loading the farm will keep the team in contention long term. You build to contend every year and in thise multiple chances a title will come.

 

Thornburg was traded from a team that was in an obvious rebuild. When you want better defense and want to cut down on strikeouts, yes, you shop Santana. I would say calling Santana the team's best bat is highly questionable, too. I think the fact that he's still a Brewer is also a reflection of his value in MLB.

[TJseven7]

He was last year. That's not a debate. Could be passed by a healthy Braun, should get passed by Yelich who we didn't have when we shopped him. Could be passed by shaw but no one was ahead of him prior to the yelich trade.

 

Defense yes if you play phillips... you aren't cutting Ks by trading him. The Ks cut came by way of Cain. Cain was target #1 for that reason.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He was last year. That's not a debate. Could be passed by a healthy Braun, should get passed by Yelich who we didn't have when we shopped him. Could be passed by shaw but no one was ahead of him prior to the yelich trade.

 

Defense yes if you play phillips... you aren't cutting Ks by trading him. The Ks cut came by way of Cain. Cain was target #1 for that reason.

 

Speaking in absolutes like that isn't helping your argument. Santana had a good year overall, but was extremely streaky. As were Shaw, Thames and even Arcia. That was the story of the 2017 team. The idea of trading Santana is also a search for more consistency. The question is whether Phillips can provide enough production to justify trading Santana.

[TJseven7]

Lets do this another way...

 

Knebel Hader albers barnes suter are here next year by guarenteed contract.

What do you do with peralta williams houser lopez diplan who are already on the 40 man?

 

Anderson Nelson chacin davies woodruff burnes.

Even add cobb... you deal away the long control on burnes woodruff to add 1 more top short term arm and run yourself off a cap/farm cliff in 3 years? Or do you lean on the top 3 and trust your long term control to hold down the back end? Do you deal out the short control middle to keep tge farm churning out talent or do you all in and pray 2021 or 2022 doesn't send you off a cliff into rebuild 2.

[MrTPlush]

They were shopping Domingo Santana in hopes of getting MLB pitching...not prospects. Thornburg was also traded for an MLB guy in Shaw and even Stearns didn’t expect us to already be competing so that was more of a rebuild move.

 

That wasn’t really shopping guys early to save money or keep the system flowing for long term competing.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lets do this another way...

 

Knebel Hader albers barnes suter are here next year by guarenteed contract.

What do you do with peralta williams houser lopez diplan who are already on the 40 man?

 

Anderson Nelson chacin davies woodruff burnes.

Even add cobb... you deal away the long control on burnes woodruff to add 1 more top short term arm and run yourself off a cap/farm cliff in 3 years? Or do you lean on the top 3 and trust your long term control to hold down the back end? Do you deal out the short control middle to keep tge farm churning out talent or do you all in and pray 2021 or 2022 doesn't send you off a cliff into rebuild 2.

 

I see many of those young fringe prospects packaged in deals for upgrades at positions of need. Sure, they will keep some, but I'd bet they aren't going to trade a bunch of MLB assets who are pre-arb to fit them in, unless they no longer fit the roster plan.

[TJseven7]

He was last year. That's not a debate. Could be passed by a healthy Braun, should get passed by Yelich who we didn't have when we shopped him. Could be passed by shaw but no one was ahead of him prior to the yelich trade.

 

Defense yes if you play phillips... you aren't cutting Ks by trading him. The Ks cut came by way of Cain. Cain was target #1 for that reason.

 

Speaking in absolutes like that isn't helping your argument. Santana had a good year overall, but was extremely streaky. As were Shaw, Thames and even Arcia. That was the story of the 2017 team. The idea of trading Santana is also a search for more consistency. The question is whether Phillips can provide enough production to justify trading Santana.

 

 

Denying the truth is ridiculous. How is it not absolute? He was the best bat we had last year. BA OBP SLG OPS all at or a few points off the top. No one else did that. We shopped him prior to yelich. It takes a yelich to get those numbers with better consistency. That's not a win now trade. Thats a HR hitter is going to spike his contract in arby and kill his trade value. Sell high.

 

Knebel will do the same with saves this year.

[TJseven7]

Lets do this another way...

 

Knebel Hader albers barnes suter are here next year by guarenteed contract.

What do you do with peralta williams houser lopez diplan who are already on the 40 man?

 

Anderson Nelson chacin davies woodruff burnes.

Even add cobb... you deal away the long control on burnes woodruff to add 1 more top short term arm and run yourself off a cap/farm cliff in 3 years? Or do you lean on the top 3 and trust your long term control to hold down the back end? Do you deal out the short control middle to keep tge farm churning out talent or do you all in and pray 2021 or 2022 doesn't send you off a cliff into rebuild 2.

 

I see many of those young fringe prospects packaged in deals for upgrades at positions of need. Sure, they will keep some, but I'd bet they aren't going to trade a bunch of MLB assets who are pre-arb to fit them in, unless they no longer fit the roster plan.

 

Got it, farm sucks... puke value for glue guys. 3-4 year window and off to another rebuild... stearns is lying to us.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He was last year. That's not a debate. Could be passed by a healthy Braun, should get passed by Yelich who we didn't have when we shopped him. Could be passed by shaw but no one was ahead of him prior to the yelich trade.

 

Defense yes if you play phillips... you aren't cutting Ks by trading him. The Ks cut came by way of Cain. Cain was target #1 for that reason.

 

Speaking in absolutes like that isn't helping your argument. Santana had a good year overall, but was extremely streaky. As were Shaw, Thames and even Arcia. That was the story of the 2017 team. The idea of trading Santana is also a search for more consistency. The question is whether Phillips can provide enough production to justify trading Santana.

 

 

Denying the truth is ridiculous. How is it not absolute? He was the best bat we had last year. BA OBP SLG OPS all at or a few points off the top. No one else did that. We shopped him prior to yelich. It takes a yelich to get those numbers with better consistency. That's not a win now trade. Thats a HR hitter is going to spike his contract in arby and kill his trade value. Sell high.

 

Knebel will do the same with saves this year.

 

No, it's a "we have a surplus at this position, and this guy has value" trade. Or its a "this guy had a good year, and isn't likely to repeat it" trade. Or its a "this guy has a ton of value, so lets see if we can flip him for an asset where we need depth" trade.

 

Perhaps you are jaded by the previous regime's philosophy of selling off studs, but I refuse to go down that pessimistic road. Comparing dealing Santana to dealing Davies or Knebel is apples and oranges.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Lets do this another way...

 

Knebel Hader albers barnes suter are here next year by guarenteed contract.

What do you do with peralta williams houser lopez diplan who are already on the 40 man?

 

Anderson Nelson chacin davies woodruff burnes.

Even add cobb... you deal away the long control on burnes woodruff to add 1 more top short term arm and run yourself off a cap/farm cliff in 3 years? Or do you lean on the top 3 and trust your long term control to hold down the back end? Do you deal out the short control middle to keep tge farm churning out talent or do you all in and pray 2021 or 2022 doesn't send you off a cliff into rebuild 2.

 

I see many of those young fringe prospects packaged in deals for upgrades at positions of need. Sure, they will keep some, but I'd bet they aren't going to trade a bunch of MLB assets who are pre-arb to fit them in, unless they no longer fit the roster plan.

 

Got it, farm sucks... puke value for glue guys. 3-4 year window and off to another rebuild... stearns is lying to us.

 

So it's better to sell off MLB assets regularly, and aspire to consistent 83-win seasons? Again, no team operates like that. I mean, name one smaller media market contending team that has regularly sold off pre-arb players? It's an idea that perhaps makes sense in theory, but unless you have Nostradamus running your team, the risk just doesn't justify it.

[pacopete4]

Yeah and that's the prime time to trade them out because of that.

 

I think we are getting very close to the proper time to sell davies and knebel.

 

If this were a club still in the midst of a rebuild, I'd agree. But the moves they made this offseason are a strong counter to that philosophy. I can't see them trading their closer and a young cost-controlled starter. Subtraction by addition works when you have a surplus at a given position (i.e. outfield), but not when you are talking about the pitching staff.

+1

[TJseven7]

But I'm not comparing that and my irritation come from being told... nope your wring despite evidence stating the contrary.

 

Please understand how foolish this sounds to me.

 

We traded thorny because were weren't contending... fine. Now we are contending so we will pay knebel into his arby save inflation. Despite the fact that in the NOW we are contending era we added albers logan and jeffress at pennies which is less than knebel before another year of arby where his cap # will spike. With hader peralta williams houser barnes who could all or some step into more prominent roles for next to no cost.

 

I'm not jaded about a prior regime trading stars. You need to in a small market if you want to consistently compete. You need to graduate talent. You need to hit thresholds yearly to stay in the mix. You have to turn over 1 year ahead and handle the farm well or you hit windows that have to go right between rebuilds. Maybe you can marlins a title... maybe you ride the roller coaster and never top out.

 

What I don't want to see is a gm who "trusts" his farm never trusting his young controlled talent and flipping it for short control that makes a tiny imact. We can get glue guys like swarzak walker jeffress for scraps. I loved that. It was genius. But to stay at that level of genius you have to flip out the extras for farm depth and trust your farm at some point.

 

If we rot these 5 promising pen arms, and block woodruff burnes or flip them for a 3 year window. You push for a title and run to a rebuild. Done well you can compete yearly if you are good, i think stearns is, and are proactive... i think he is but im being flat told no.

 

More farm torched for short term adds. Never trusting our talent... never letting it get to a sell high point. This would tick me off.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

But I'm not comparing that and my irritation come from being told... nope your wring despite evidence stating the contrary.

 

Please understand how foolish this sounds to me.

 

We traded thorny because were weren't contending... fine. Now we are contending so we will pay knebel into his arby save inflation. Despite the fact that in the NOW we are contending era we added albers logan and jeffress at pennies which is less than knebel before another year of arby where his cap # will spike. With hader peralta williams houser barnes who could all or some step into more prominent roles for next to no cost.

 

I'm not jaded about a prior regime trading stars. You need to in a small market if you want to consistently compete. You need to graduate talent. You need to hit thresholds yearly to stay in the mix. You have to turn over 1 year ahead and handle the farm well or you hit windows that have to go right between rebuilds. Maybe you can marlins a title... maybe you ride the roller coaster and never top out.

 

What I don't want to see is a gm who "trusts" his farm never trusting his young controlled talent and flipping it for short control that makes a tiny imact. We can get glue guys like swarzak walker jeffress for scraps. I loved that. It was genius. But to stay at that level of genius you have to flip out the extras for farm depth and trust your farm at some point.

 

If we rot these 5 promising pen arms, and block woodruff burnes or flip them for a 3 year window. You push for a title and run to a rebuild. Done well you can compete yearly if you are good, i think stearns is, and are proactive... i think he is but im being flat told no.

 

More farm torched for short term adds. Never trusting our talent... never letting it get to a sell high point. This would tick me off.

 

I totally get where your coming from, and we want the same things. I think we just have a different idea on how to get there. I have to say, if Stearns does follow your train of thought, it would be a novel approach, and he'd be betting a lot on himself and his player personnel department to know which players to sell high on, and which players are building blocks. He'd also have to be extremely thick-skinned, because the majority of the fanbase isn't going to take too kindly to trading off young pre-arb talent that can currently help the team. The typical fan doesn't care about whether a player is in arbitration or not. All they see is your contending team just traded its proven closer for a package of young prospects. Perhaps the "Brewers Way" can become the MLB's version of the "Patriots Way", but they sure as heck aren't there yet.

[pacopete4]

Peralta, Williams, Houser, Lopez, Diplan... It is highly unlikely that all five of these guys make a difference this year or next. We will be lucky to get two of this group. And while Knebel might be a regression candidate, he also might be the piece we need for this Brewers team to win a division or make the playoffs this year or next. I just can't see how selling him right now makes much sense in the short or even possibly the long-term scenarios for the Brewers. Maybe next off season, maybe.

[MrTPlush]

It makes sense in theory until you trade the proven guy on a contending team and the replacement(say Phillips) is a total bust. Trading 100% known guys for guys who have a 70%+ to dissapoint greatly is a sure fire way to kill your competing team and end up in the same rebuilding window you tried to avoid. That is high risk for questionable high reward. I’d love to see a team do this because I bet it would end up terribly. Look at how many major players get traded and the whole package ends up dissapointing 5 years down the line.

[paul253]

But to stay at that level of genius you have to flip out the extras for farm depth and trust your farm at some point

 

There’s a difference though between trusting your farm and being overconfident in it. The vast majority of prospects fail to do anything at the major league level. Trading them before the flame out is just as sound a strategy as trading major leaguers before they regress. I love prospects as much as the next guy but the heck if I’m trading an all star caliber closer when we have every intention of trying to win the division, and I’m one who thinks closer are the most overvalued position in baseball. But that being said, Jeffress Williams and Houser are not Knenel. At least not yet. If we had a quality, reliable bullpen at the beginning of last season we have been able to hold onto the division. I don’t want to make the same mistake this year just so we can add more prospects.