What if we don't add a starter?

[TJseven7]

He was 20ip short of being a qualifier on the era lists. Missed 5-6 starts.

His era would have been 5th.

I'm sure there are other non-qualifying starters that were better who missed the list.

I'm also sure there weren't 11 of said examples. That would put him in the top half of all 1s in era.

 

Now I know earned runs are only what the pitcher is responsible for allowing the other team to score and all... but you don't remove runs from the scoreboard because your fipx numbers come in good.

 

He doesn't pitch ace innings. Hes around 5.6 ip per start. But he has had an ace era for 203 innings and counting. Counts for something right.

 

There are a lot of guys I'd put anderson against for 4-5 ip in the playoffs and not worry. There aren't many teams who could top hader knebel as well.

 

Keep Anderson close to this level and we need Nelson back at his new form 3.10 era and cobb in 2013-2014 mode. You get that and its time to push for 1 more. That is a 4 pack NO ONE likes coming their way. Aces be damned, 4 deep around 3.2 era infront of a wipe out pen is a rough draw for anyone.

 

Its why you add cobb. Anderson Cobb and Nelson can signal its time to push all in.

[82brewcrew82]

Keep Anderson close to this level and we need Nelson back at his new form 3.10 era and cobb in 2013-2014 mode. You get that and its time to push for 1 more. That is a 4 pack NO ONE likes coming their way. Aces be damned, 4 deep around 3.2 era infront of a wipe out pen is a rough draw for anyone.

 

Its why you add cobb. Anderson Cobb and Nelson can signal its time to push all in.

That is a lot of hope.

[TJseven7]

Keep Anderson close to this level and we need Nelson back at his new form 3.10 era and cobb in 2013-2014 mode. You get that and its time to push for 1 more. That is a 4 pack NO ONE likes coming their way. Aces be damned, 4 deep around 3.2 era infront of a wipe out pen is a rough draw for anyone.

 

Its why you add cobb. Anderson Cobb and Nelson can signal its time to push all in.

That is a lot of hope.

 

That's what you need to small market a title. You add stroman cobb to nelson anderson and these 2 of these 4 flame out... your farms gone and your playing for a wc at best.

 

Add cobb... wait. If the window opens push it wide open. If it doesn't contend for a wc and keep your farm.

 

Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes

[Jopal78]

The fact of the matter is, they will have to add a SP or hope that Wade Miley or Gallardo has some juice left in their arms. The other options for SP just haven't thrown a lot of innings and the organization likely doesn't want to burnout the first collection of promising young arms they've had in a generation.

 

Woodruff only pitched 120 innings last year, and never topped 158 in the minors. Counting on him to go 180+ might be a stretch. Likewise, Suter pitched 120 total innings last year, and may have more value as a multi-inning reliever.

Burnes pitched 145 innings last year and will most assuredly open the season in the minor leagues, so he can't be counted on to start a significant amount of games for the big league team at this point.

Junior Guerra doesn't have a workload issue but then again, he didn't exactly light it up last year.

Wilkerson at 29 also likely doesn't have a workload issue, but can they count on him to keep the team in the game?

[jonescm128]

Depth was an issue last year for us. A look at the pitchers and number of games started:

 

Davies - 33

Nelson - 29

Anderson - 25

Garza - 22

Suter - 14

Guerra - 14

Peralta - 8

Woodruff - 8

Milone - 3

Espino - 2

Wilkerson - 2

Blazek - 1

*Jeffress - 1

 

 

Just by removing 38 starts from Garza, Peralta, Milone, Espino, Wilkerson, and Blazek and giving those to Woodruff, Guerra, Suter, Gallardo, and even Miley would improve the rotation alone.

[Mr Southpaw]

Depth was an issue last year for us. A look at the pitchers and number of games started:

 

Davies - 33

Nelson - 29

Anderson - 25

Garza - 22

Suter - 14

Guerra - 14

Peralta - 8

Woodruff - 8

Milone - 3

Espino - 2

Wilkerson - 2

Blazek - 1

*Jeffress - 1

 

 

Just by removing 38 starts from Garza, Peralta, Milone, Espino, Wilkerson, and Blazek and giving those to Woodruff, Guerra, Suter, Gallardo, and even Miley would improve the rotation alone.

 

................IP.......ER........ERA

Garza........114......63........4.94

Peralta.......57.......50........7.85

Milone........21.........15.......6.43

Espino........17.........12.......6.11

Blazek........8..........8.........8.31

TOTAL.......217.......148......6.14

[pacopete4]

5.5 inning per start * 162 games = 891 innings total that we'll probably need from our pitchers.

 

Anderson= 180 (5.6ip per start (32 starts))

Davies = 190 (5.9ip per start (32 starts))

Chacin = 190 (5.9ip per start (32 starts))

Total= 555

 

We need to find 336+ innings from our 4 & 5 pitchers this year that won't be complete trash. It will probably come from 3-5 different pitchers to fill those two spots in the rotation (if none of the top three get injured).

[82brewcrew82]

5.5 inning per start * 162 games = 891 innings total that we'll probably need from our pitchers.

 

Anderson= 180 (5.6ip per start (32 starts))

Davies = 190 (5.9ip per start (32 starts))

Chacin = 190 (5.9ip per start (32 starts))

Total= 555

 

We need to find 336+ innings from our 4 & 5 pitchers this year that won't be complete trash. It will probably come from 3-5 different pitchers to fill those two spots in the rotation (if none of the top three get injured).

Hopefully Nelson and Woodruff can account for 230/280 non-suck innings. 80-100 out of Nelson and 150-180 out of Woodruff. If you factor in missed starts/injuries, I'd say we still need to account for 100-150 innings. Maybe Burnes can continue his success and pick up a chunk of that? Maybe Suter can effectively eat up the rest?

[TJH123]

As it stands right now I’m not too hopeful the rotation as it stands can go deep into the postseason, Nelson is missing at least 1/3 of the season, Anderson has been spectacular but he could easily come back down to Earth and be an average pitcher in the blink of an eye, same with Davies, Chacin is a lower end of the rotation arm at best and Woodruff is still a big unknown. Anderson had never had a season as good as last season before, and I really hope he can continue that success but won’t be surprised if he regresses. Same with Davies. Nelson is coming off of a big injury and he could easily be the old Jimmy again. This doesn’t even factor in any other injuries 1 of these pitches could suffer in the season which is likely for at least 1 of the 3 at some point. Then you’ll have to rely on Woodruff who is still a big unknown, Chacin, and then Suter, Gallardo, Guerra, Miley or Wilkerson? That scares me a lot other than suter who I think is more suited for the bullpen anyways, although I really liked him in the rotation at the end of last season.

 

I have very high hopes for Burnes and Counsell says he and Peralta could potentially help the team as early as mid season in his opinion, but he’s not gonna be in the rotation to start the season and he would likely have his own rookie struggles. I really wish Hader had a reliable 3rd pitch and was a realistic rotation option at this point, but he’s not and still a better option for the bullpen at the moment. I honestly think he’ll win a Cy Young one day if he adds a reliable third pitch and I’ve been fully on the Hader train since he was acquired from houston and started dominating the minors.

 

I’m all for trading for Archer if they don’t have to give up Burnes, Hiura or Lutz, and with MLB.com releasing their Brewers top 30 prospects today, only Hiura, Burnes and Woodruff are in the top 100, meaning Ray and Ortiz are no longer in their top 100 and definitely couldn’t be a headliner for a big trade for a guy like Archer at this point, so it looks very unlikely a deal could be completed with including Hiura or Burnes which I would hate, and they don’t really have a need to add an outfielder like Domingo either anymore.

 

I would like Arrieta but he seems expensive as with any boras client, but still a i think it’s worth it to go for him. Cobb is a lot cheaper so if the Brewers really want him I’m not sure what’s taking so long. If it’s losing the draft pick and a potential trade chip Stearns is worried about, that draft pick could easily turn into Corey Ray or Trent Grisham and disappoint big time in the minor leagues and turn into a low level trade chip anyways. How many first round picks actually play to their potential and become big league stars or even stars in the minors? Something like 20%? Worrying about losing a draft pick who probably wouldn’t amount to anything is silly imo.

 

I would rather not wait until the deadline to trade for a pitcher because I really don’t like the Brewers low end rotation options as they are, especially factoring in that one of Anderson or Davies could easily get hurt in addition to Nelson already being hurt to start the year. My hope is something is done before the season starts and it’s getting to the point that it looks unlikely.

 

I also don’t understand the lineup situation as there’s only 4 spots to play between 5 players in Braun, Thames, Yelich, Cain and Santana, meaning one of them won’t be playing every day and that is a big waste to me. I also really don’t like having to potentially rely on Villar at 2nd base as he was dreadful last year and lacks baseball IQ. I would much rather rely on Sogard and Hernan and have Villar gone. Hopefully this all gets sorted out soon, otherwise I don’t really understand the additions of the 2 big time outfielders which now gives us 4 outfielders who should be playing every day. Braun will still likely play mostly outfield but if he’s playing first then Thames isn’t playing and I’d personally rather have him be the every day guy with Braun, Yelich, Cain in the outfield. Santana is a terrible defensive outfielder despite his offensive success and he’s the one I’d trade, but it seems like everybody else on here has said that the Brewers seem to be overvaluing him compared to other teams and I agree. We’ll see what happens.

[DR28]

Wow, paragraphs much.

 

That was hard to read.

[TJH123]

Wow, paragraphs much.

 

That was hard to read.

 

Sorry lol I’ll edit it. Had too many flowing thoughts

[DR28]

Wow, paragraphs much.

 

That was hard to read.

 

Sorry lol I’ll edit it. Had too many flowing thoughts

 

Haha, no problem... Just ribbing ya!

[wallus]

Thank you for that analysis. I think that shows we need at least 7 quality starters to make it through the year.

[82brewcrew82]

I would bet most GM's would tell you that you need to be ten deep.

[Jenkins5]

5 players for 4 spots is a non issue. All 5 can get starter ABs. Thames is platoon bat.... he can’t hit lefties. Braun hopefully fills in there Vs lefties. Then you play match ups with day offs. Nice thing is you always have a quality big bat on bench. Braun at best will only start 140-150 games I’m guessing? That is the highest end even if healthy. Keep him as fresh as possible to last all season. 5th OF is one who gets short end of stick.... they aren’t getting many ABs outside of pinch hitting.

 

As for if we don’t go & get another pitcher.... we will be just fine. Think it is no worse than last year & our offense is far improved. See how it’s shaking out until Late June or July & go for it if that is what is needed. Maybe Woodruff is pitching great.... Yo or 5th SP has refound form and pitch great. Nelson back, Chacin handling Lefties okay, Anderson repeating, and Davies is June on form from last year.... Burns pounding on door with Ortiz, and Peralta.... a lot needs to go right for that but could happen. If it’s not.... make a move

[AKCheesehead]

It's been discussed aplenty in another thread, but to answer the question of this thread's title: My preference would be to see Milwaukee insert Hader into the rotation as a bridge to the hopefully healthy and effective Nelson, arriving midseason. If Nelson isn't coming along well, trade for a rental and move Hader to the BP to save his arm.

[DR28]

Man are we REALLY gonna go into the season with one of Suter/Miley/Gallardo/Guerra as our 5th starter?

 

Everything Ive been reading lately seems like we are... What a disappointment that would be.

[TJseven7]

Yes it would. What brew posted about needing 336 ip from the 4-5 screams cobb woodruff with suter on his hip.

 

Getting cobbs 6ip per start arm into the lineup could allow us to use our long man as more of a woodruff piggy back than true long man.

 

If you could get 150 ip (pace) from woodruff and piggy back suter for 3 to 4 ip depending on score situation (90-120 ip pace). That would 240-270 ip would take some serious strain off the pen. If we end up needing a long man when suter is burnt well barnes jeffress are throwing 4 ip combined because they can.

 

I do hope we put suter as a long man and use him as an asset instead of a mop up guy. That can't happen without 1 more starter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Man are we REALLY gonna go into the season with one of Suter/Miley/Gallardo/Guerra as our 5th starter?

 

Everything Ive been reading lately seems like we are... What a disappointment that would be.

 

Maybe, maybe not. But if they don't add one, Wilkerson is another option. And I still give Burnes a 3.6% chance to get the 5th spot out of camp.

[TJseven7]

That's a big jump.

[TJH123]

5 players for 4 spots is a non issue. All 5 can get starter ABs. Thames is platoon bat.... he can’t hit lefties. Braun hopefully fills in there Vs lefties. Then you play match ups with day offs. Nice thing is you always have a quality big bat on bench. Braun at best will only start 140-150 games I’m guessing? That is the highest end even if healthy. Keep him as fresh as possible to last all season. 5th OF is one who gets short end of stick.... they aren’t getting many ABs outside of pinch hitting.

 

As for if we don’t go & get another pitcher.... we will be just fine. Think it is no worse than last year & our offense is far improved. See how it’s shaking out until Late June or July & go for it if that is what is needed. Maybe Woodruff is pitching great.... Yo or 5th SP has refound form and pitch great. Nelson back, Chacin handling Lefties okay, Anderson repeating, and Davies is June on form from last year.... Burns pounding on door with Ortiz, and Peralta.... a lot needs to go right for that but could happen. If it’s not.... make a move

 

I see how Braun and Thames will platoon but I’m still thinking about Thames start to the season last year and thinking he should play every day even though he played pretty bad the rest of the season, but I’m having trouble seeing how there’s enough starts for all 4 outfielders to get 140-150 each if Braun is spending probably 50% of his PT in left field.

 

I do like your point that it is likely Braun gets hurt again and then the lineup makes more sense and it would be nice to have just as good of an outfield if he were to get hurt. I would still prefer the outfield to be Braun, Yelich, Cain with Phillips and Hernan filling in when needed and Santana moved in a package for a big time pitcher, but that seems a lot more unlikely now. I really think they need to add a big time pitcher or they won’t get any where in terms of postseason success this year unless some of the lower rotation arms have magic years, and if not then you basically wasted one of Cain’s good contract years before he inevitably declines.

[DR28]

Yes it would. What brew posted about needing 336 ip from the 4-5 screams cobb woodruff with suter on his hip.

 

Getting cobbs 6ip per start arm into the lineup could allow us to use our long man as more of a woodruff piggy back than true long man.

 

If you could get 150 ip (pace) from woodruff and piggy back suter for 3 to 4 ip depending on score situation (90-120 ip pace). That would 240-270 ip would take some serious strain off the pen. If we end up needing a long man when suter is burnt well barnes jeffress are throwing 4 ip combined because they can.

 

I do hope we put suter as a long man and use him as an asset instead of a mop up guy. That can't happen without 1 more starter.

 

I would be fine with not adding another SP if Jimmy was healthy.

 

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

But he's not right now and the current rotation of

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Suter/Miley/Gallardo/Guerra/Wilkerson

 

Makes NO sense now that we have Yelich and Cain... No sense whatsoever.

 

Wasting 1 year of our window.

[jonescm128]

Do we think there is a possibility that Burnes could start the year in the rotation? Obviously he would have to be lights out in spring, but I wonder if that would even be an option for Stearns.

[pacopete4]

1 inning pitched in spring training and boom! Forget Arrieta. Forget Cobb or Lynn. Burnes is ready! Gotta love is around here. We change with the wind.

[jonescm128]

1 inning pitched in spring training and boom! Forget Arrieta. Forget Cobb or Lynn. Burnes is ready! Gotta love is around here. We change with the wind.

 

That is not what I said at all. This has nothing to do with Cobb or Arrieta. Counsell already said him and Peralta are potential mid-season call-ups so I wonder if they would expedite that process if he had a lights out spring. That's all.