What if we don't add a starter?

[jonescm128]

If Cain and Yelich were on sale then I'd sure hate to see what they would cost if they weren't. Cain in particular has a no trade clause so he is worthless as an asset unless he is playing at a high level for a team that is all in the next two years. If the window was longer, you'd just let our young guys develop instead of bringing on a 32 year old at a super premium cost.

 

Stearns gave up pretty much everyone but Ueker to acquire two outfielders we didn't really need unless we were truly going to go for a WS title. We haven't done enough to get us there and we have a roster that makes no sense, which is why more will happen.

 

I do think we will pick up Arrieta or Cobb and we will likely trade our remaining top prospects for an Archer type either this spring or if they see Nelson can't come back to 2017 levels from a very difficult injury at the deadline.

 

No half measures.

 

I agree with Boomer. Even if the Brewers didn't value Brinson, Harrison and Diaz as much, they still had enormous value in the trade market. That package may have gotten you Archer or Stroman but instead they got Yelich. A rotation headlined by Archer or Stroman and an OF without Yelich (Braun-Cain-Santana) may be a better team than what the Brewers will be putting out there in 2018.

 

There was no discount in acquiring Yelich. 5 years and $80 million for a 32-36 year old season for a CF is no discount. While I love both moves, the acquisition of both tells me the Brewers have more moves to make. Braun to first is a mirage IMO and you can't play Santana part time and expect him to hold whatever value he currently has. Same with Broxton. The Brewers can't be rooting for an injury to one of the OF but that is the only way enough playing time is opened up for Braun-Yelich-Cain-Santana-Broxton-Phillips.

 

Stearns has a trade to make and will do so prior to Opening Day.

 

He doesn't have to. Broxton and Phillips have options so that takes care of our OF logjam. I think they have both proved all they can in the minors but it is a way out of the logjam if it comes to it.

[monty57]

I hope we aren't looking at a "window" at all, but rather just saw some guys who looked to be "on sale" in Cain and Yelich, so we picked them up to improve the team.

 

As to potentially not adding a starter, I'll first say that I think we will add someone, but if we don't, then I'd expect Suter to be our #5 going into the season. In 22 games last year (14 starts), he posted a 3.42 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 7.05 k/9, 2.42 BB/9 for a 1.6 WAR.

 

He's one of those guys like Davies who has consistently put up good numbers without good "stuff," so he's never been highly regarded even though he gets guys out. I think we'd be okay with Suter, but I think we will make a move. I just think that the way to look at whatever move we make has to be relative to Suter. i.e. if we do something, it has to be significantly better than a 1.6 or so WAR or we'd better not pay too much for it.

 

In that light, Fangraphs projects Cobb to post 1.5-1.6 WAR (he was at 2.4 in 2017). Is it worth signing Cobb to a 4 yr / $60M deal if he's only slightly better than Suter? I don't think so. Arrieta is projected to post around a 3 WAR, which would be an upgrade, but the decision comes down to whether that upgrade is worth $20-25M a year for 4-6 years, when he's already in his early 30's.

 

Again, I think Stearns will do something, but marginal return is important. Are 1.5 additional wins worth paying $20-25M/year to a declining player? I personally hope he finds something more reasonable. If not, he was willing to give Davies a shot and that paid off, so he may be willing to give another guy who puts up numbers without great "stuff" a shot, and we might open the season with Suter as our #5 until Nelson returns. It's not sexy, and the "win now" crowd would not like it, but it could be the sensible move.

 

I like Woodruff to be the #5 and you can use Suter as a long reliver. His "craftiness" would be tough for hitters to adjust to after facing the other starters (as we saw last year during the first time through the order)

 

I agree, and that's what I expect to happen. For sake of the "What if we don't add a starter?" thread, I was just stating that Suter probably wouldn't be too bad as a #5 if we stand pat.

 

Anyone added needs to be a step up from Suter, and I don't think we should pay too much unless it is a significant step up.

[tmwiese55]

I generally agree with the point that I trust Suter to be competent when needed, like last year. That said, you have to factor in how likely it is for one or two SPs to be hurt at some point. So I'd basically be wanting the other added SP in order to keep Suter as the guy to fill in as needed. He is still somewhat of a gimmick that I'm not sure would hold up with 33 starts and his stats are a bit skewed in a way because you go into his starts knowing to not let him go through the lineup 3 times. It's better to know that about someone rather than let him get beat up in the 6th and 7th inning, but it also means he's somewhat limited and someone you'd like as your fill in rather than relied on as a starter. That's my two cents.

 

FA SP, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff to start the year with Suter ready as the fill in. By the time Nelson is back someone else will be hurt or not doing well and you're in the same spot. As someone else said, this stuff usually takes care of itself and you can never have too much starting pitching. Remember to finish last year we only had 3 SPs.

[clancyphile]

There was no discount in acquiring Yelich. 5 years and $80 million for a 32-36 year old season for a CF is no discount. While I love both moves, the acquisition of both tells me the Brewers have more moves to make. Braun to first is a mirage IMO and you can't play Santana part time and expect him to hold whatever value he currently has. Same with Broxton. The Brewers can't be rooting for an injury to one of the OF but that is the only way enough playing time is opened up for Braun-Yelich-Cain-Santana-Broxton-Phillips.

 

Stearns has a trade to make and will do so prior to Opening Day.

 

If Braun to 1B is a mirage, where does he play? You don't acquire Yelich to play him out of position in RF, and while I suppose Braun could play in RF, he's not the ideal solution there, either.

 

I agree that there are likely several personnel moves this team has left to make, because the makeup of the roster doesn't make a lot of sense. I would imagine Santana, Broxton and one of Thames/Aguiar are all on the trade block, which opens up 1B for Braun to be part of a platoon there, with the rest of Braun's starts coming in LF, giving Yelich breathers or kicking Yelich to CF to give Cain breathers. I still believe that Phillips will see most of the time in RF.

 

I see the Crew moving Broxton and Aguilar for lottery tickets to keep the farm system going.

 

Yelich, Cain, and Santana end up in the OF with about 125-130 starts each. Phillips gets about 40 starts, most in center to rest Cain. Braun gets 60 starts in the outfield between LF and RF, 60 at 1B, and 5 at DH. Maybe work him in at second or third base and get another 15-20 starts there so folks get a day off (or if Villar slumps).

 

Lots can happen.

[Mr Southpaw]

liveforoctober: you make great points, but that is all the more reason why we need more pitching, because you cannot rely on 5 starters to stay injury free.

 

It is a real stretch of the imagination for me to think that Anderson will be as good as he was last year. It is possible, certainly, but I'm not counting on it. Chacin is a good addition. Woodruff is a bit of a wildcard. There are zero guarantees that Nelson will be an effective starter again. Shoulder injuries are as unpredictable as it gets. If he puts up similar production to his 2015-2016 numbers it wouldn't shock me.

 

Not directed at anyone in particular: And our goal is to win a World Series, not to hang another embarrassing wildcard pennant on the wall!

What if Junior regains his 2016 stuff? what if YoGo turns around to be a solid 3-4 starter? What if Burnes is the real deal and we cannot keep him off the MLB roster? What if Sutor has developed a knuckleball over the winter? ok , ok I will take the last one back. There are a lot of ifs there.

[TJseven7]

"Anyone added needs to be a step up from Suter, and I don't think we should pay too much unless it is a significant step up."

 

I really like Suter, but what is a significant step up? In 16 starts the guy has been just under 5 ip and 3.95 era. Is this where you expect suter to be? I see cobb as a significant step up because I dont see suter working deep in games or improving on that era. I think cobb could throw 180 ip and I think 3.6 is his floor.

 

I prefer Suter in the pen where hes taken 20 appearances for 23.2 ip.and a 1.52 era. His funky style plays best when teams don't have a reason to focus on it in their game preparation. Teams won't spend a lot of time preparing their batters for a reliever they might see. They will prepare their batters for his funky style if he's a starter.

 

If they don't add a starter there's an easy to make knee jerk reaction that it's got to be Suter 5th. I don't think Yo or Guerra can be counted on anymore. Yo has been terrible 2 years... Guerra is a total coin flip. I see them both as incase of emergency options. I'd probably turn to Wilkerson as the 5. He and Suter would be battling it out in camp.

 

Either way... woodruff is getting his chance here. The question then becomes: Does Suter Wilkerson Derby ever get a real look. If we dont add a starter those 3 get a chance here. If we add a starter... with Nelson and Burnes on the way they aren't going to get another shot here to start barring trading off starters or injuries.

[brewmann04]

Brewers are going to add their pitcher in Wade Miley

[TJseven7]

Brewers are going to add their pitcher in Wade Miley

 

Another espino. Changes nothing.

[brewmann04]

I would agree and hopefully we be adding someone before opening day

[DR28]

I really hope this wasnt the SP HH was talking about.

[TJseven7]

I really hope this wasnt the SP HH was talking about.

 

No he said cobb or he deletes his account. Had Yelich at 95% likely. I'd guess he thinks Cobb is at about 105% likelihood.

[Hart4Crew]

Any thoughts that signing Miley sets up a trade that would involve trading one of our pitchers (in a package - Woodruff) for an upgrade (he states scratching his head)?

[Mr Southpaw]

Any thoughts that signing Miley sets up a trade that would involve trading one of our pitchers (in a package - Woodruff) for an upgrade (he states scratching his head)?

Miley is a "We really are going to move on without you" bluff for the FA we are looking at. His contract doesn't count if he doesn't make the big team, which he won't, even if we don't sign a FA.

[monty57]

I really like Suter, but what is a significant step up? In 16 starts the guy has been just under 5 ip and 3.95 era. Is this where you expect suter to be? I see cobb as a significant step up because I dont see suter working deep in games or improving on that era. I think cobb could throw 180 ip and I think 3.6 is his floor.

 

I don't know about 3.6 ERA being his floor, but I am warming up to the notion of adding Cobb, especially if his price is moving down from his initial 4/$60 demands.

 

I made the mistake of just doing a quick check on him, and seeing his projections which look like they may be a little light. As a guy in his second year back from TJ, he could be back to form and if we can get him for something like 4/$50, that could be a good signing.

 

But, this is the "What if we don't add a starter?" thread, so I'll stop there.

[jonescm128]

I think we as fans need to brace for the fact that Stearns may not sign one of the top three pitchers. He made a comment that any free agent signing has to move the needle. I think he has a lot of confidence in Woodruff/Suter/Guerra/Gallardo/Miley to round out the 4th and 5th spots.

 

Throughout all of these posts it seems not many people are taking into consideration that signing one of the remaining SPs will forfeit a draft pick. In my mind this is a pretty big flag for Stearns. Small market teams need those picks and those picks can turn into trade pieces in the future. I think we need to realistically accept that we are going into the year with what we have and hoping that Nelson can find his form and act as a trade deadline pickup.

[JohnBriggs12]

There was no discount in acquiring Yelich. 5 years and $80 million for a 32-36 year old season for a CF is no discount. While I love both moves, the acquisition of both tells me the Brewers have more moves to make. Braun to first is a mirage IMO and you can't play Santana part time and expect him to hold whatever value he currently has. Same with Broxton. The Brewers can't be rooting for an injury to one of the OF but that is the only way enough playing time is opened up for Braun-Yelich-Cain-Santana-Broxton-Phillips.

 

Stearns has a trade to make and will do so prior to Opening Day.

 

If Braun to 1B is a mirage, where does he play? You don't acquire Yelich to play him out of position in RF, and while I suppose Braun could play in RF, he's not the ideal solution there, either.

 

I agree that there are likely several personnel moves this team has left to make, because the makeup of the roster doesn't make a lot of sense. I would imagine Santana, Broxton and one of Thames/Aguiar are all on the trade block, which opens up 1B for Braun to be part of a platoon there, with the rest of Braun's starts coming in LF, giving Yelich breathers or kicking Yelich to CF to give Cain breathers. I still believe that Phillips will see most of the time in RF.

 

I see the Crew moving Broxton and Aguilar for lottery tickets to keep the farm system going.

 

Yelich, Cain, and Santana end up in the OF with about 125-130 starts each. Phillips gets about 40 starts, most in center to rest Cain. Braun gets 60 starts in the outfield between LF and RF, 60 at 1B, and 5 at DH. Maybe work him in at second or third base and get another 15-20 starts there so folks get a day off (or if Villar slumps).

 

Lots can happen.

 

They didn't invest $80 million for a guy who makes 125 starts. Likewise, they didn't deal their number one prospect for another guy who'll make 130 starts. Cain and Yelich are penciled in for 150 starts each. It will come down to a 3 man rotation for 2 spots, RF and 1B. That's a little over 100 starts each for Santana, Braun and Thames. Braun will pick up a handful in LF. The logjam will be broken at some point by either a trade or injury.

[82brewcrew82]

They didn't invest $80 million for a guy who makes 125 starts. Likewise, they didn't deal their number one prospect for another guy who'll make 130 starts. Cain and Yelich are penciled in for 150 starts each. It will come down to a 3 man rotation for 2 spots, RF and 1B. That's a little over 100 starts each for Santana, Braun and Thames. Braun will pick up a handful in LF. The logjam will be broken at some point by either a trade or injury.

Sure looks like they did.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

They didn't invest $80 million for a guy who makes 125 starts. Likewise, they didn't deal their number one prospect for another guy who'll make 130 starts. Cain and Yelich are penciled in for 150 starts each. It will come down to a 3 man rotation for 2 spots, RF and 1B. That's a little over 100 starts each for Santana, Braun and Thames. Braun will pick up a handful in LF. The logjam will be broken at some point by either a trade or injury.

Sure looks like they did.

 

They are literally one day into Spring Training. They have time to get things sorted out.

[82brewcrew82]

They didn't invest $80 million for a guy who makes 125 starts. Likewise, they didn't deal their number one prospect for another guy who'll make 130 starts. Cain and Yelich are penciled in for 150 starts each. It will come down to a 3 man rotation for 2 spots, RF and 1B. That's a little over 100 starts each for Santana, Braun and Thames. Braun will pick up a handful in LF. The logjam will be broken at some point by either a trade or injury.

Sure looks like they did.

 

They are literally one day into Spring Training. They have time to get things sorted out.

Been hearing that for a while now and the options are starting to peel off. The team leadership has been pretty clear that they are fine with the group they have and I'm not buying that it is all subterfuge when they say it. The D'Backs GM was pretty adamant that they were still looking to add and managed to pull off a deal despite being open about wanting to pull off a deal. At some point you have to take them at their word despite the random ramblings from twitter world. I'm not saying that standing pat is the wrong choice either. If they are not seeing what they want then hold tight. I'm just not sure the other moves they made make much sense in that light.

[PeaveyFury]

Been hearing that for a while now and the options are starting to peel off. The team leadership has been pretty clear that they are fine with the group they have and I'm not buying that it is all subterfuge when they say it. The D'Backs GM was pretty adamant that they were still looking to add and managed to pull off a deal despite being open about wanting to pull off a deal. At some point you have to take them at their word despite the random ramblings from twitter world. I'm not saying that standing pat is the wrong choice either. If they are not seeing what they want then hold tight. I'm just not sure the other moves they made make much sense in that light.

 

The D-backs made their deal one day ago. Heck, not even.... 14 hours ago. Maybe it's worth waiting just a bit longer?

 

And what options are peeling off? The backup, backup options like Garcia? There's still 3 of the top 4 FA arms available.

[jjfanec]

Been hearing that for a while now and the options are starting to peel off. The team leadership has been pretty clear that they are fine with the group they have and I'm not buying that it is all subterfuge when they say it. The D'Backs GM was pretty adamant that they were still looking to add and managed to pull off a deal despite being open about wanting to pull off a deal. At some point you have to take them at their word despite the random ramblings from twitter world. I'm not saying that standing pat is the wrong choice either. If they are not seeing what they want then hold tight. I'm just not sure the other moves they made make much sense in that light.

 

The D-backs made their deal one day ago. Heck, not even.... 14 hours ago. Maybe it's worth waiting just a bit longer?

 

And what options are peeling off? The backup, backup options like Garcia? There's still 3 of the top 4 FA arms available.

 

Exactly. At this point things are working great for the Brewers to get a starting pitcher at a good price. The market just isn't there for Arreita and Cobb and even Lynn. As much as it sucked that the Cubs were the ones who got darvish that essentially took two teams out because it seems like the Dodgers were only interested in Darvish. The Twins may still be a player since Odorizzi is just a guy but things are very quite. Then you have the Nationals and maybe Yankees and Cards but not a lot. The Brewers can wait and if Tampa keeps making terrible deals maybe their asking price for Archer drops too

[82brewcrew82]

Arietta seems unlikely (cost). Salazar seems unlikely (hurt/injured). Odorizzi was traded. They don't seem to have any interest in Lynn. Darvish signed. Archer seems to be off the table. I'm not sure Fullmer/Stroman were ever real options. Cotton, meh. So yeah, the options seem greatly diminished since the time of the Yelich/Cain deals. I'm not saying they won't make a deal but the odds seem to have slipped greatly.

 

I realize the D'Backs made that deal "one day ago". My point was that the Arizona FO was very open that they were being aggressive in terms of roster additions and still managed to pull off the deal. Thus, I am not buying that Stearns and MA are completely blowing smoke when they say they are ready to go into the season with this roster.

[pacopete4]

Thus, I am not buying that Stearns and MA are completely blowing smoke when they say they are ready to go into the season with this roster.

 

I don't disagree with you on this. I think they are fine with the roster that they have right now if they have to. They are being patient, and they should be. If the right deal comes available, they will do it. It's just harder for us as fans because we want to see movement but we just may not get it. And in the end, that may be okay too.

[3and2Fastball]

My opinion: if they don't add a starter this team will be mediocre at best, fighting to be a .500 team

 

They really need two more starters.

[mrn1ceguy]

They didn't invest $80 million for a guy who makes 125 starts. Likewise, they didn't deal their number one prospect for another guy who'll make 130 starts. Cain and Yelich are penciled in for 150 starts each. It will come down to a 3 man rotation for 2 spots, RF and 1B. That's a little over 100 starts each for Santana, Braun and Thames. Braun will pick up a handful in LF. The logjam will be broken at some point by either a trade or injury.

Sure looks like they did.

 

If we assume the roster will include Cain, Yelich, Braun, Santana and Thames with Phillips/Broxton/Aguilar in AAA or traded, their starts can easily be balanced.

 

LF: Yelich (123), Braun (39)

CF: Cain (135), Yelich (27)

RF: Santana (150), Cain (12)

1B: Braun (81), Thames (81)

DH: Thames (10)

 

Yelich gets 150 games (12 days off throughout the year)

Cain gets 147 games (15 days off throughout the year)

Santana gets 150 games (12 days off throughout the year)

Braun gets 120 games (~1 day off a week plus one 10-day DL trip)

Thames gets 91 games

 

The only person who loses playing time outside of what they can be expected to play is Thames who already should sit every game with a lefty starter (~50). So all in all, he's only sitting an extra 20 games beyond an ideal scenario.