What if we don't add a starter?

[jonescm128]

If we don't do anything to the rotation, can we still be successful? I read this on BP Milwaukee this morning and they addressed that fact. It's a pretty interesting read:

 

http://milwaukee.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/14/trust-the-rotation/

[KCBrewerfan34]

It would be a tad dissappointing. Cobb seems like a fit, do a 4 year deal. See how we start off, Nelson comes back in June and DS has laid the groundwork for a mid season deal if need be.

 

I haven’t been this excited for the Brewers since the early 80’s.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

My thought is if they don't add a starter, and Davies and Anderson pitch like they did last season, and Chacin provides solid #3-like numbers, and Woodruff fulfills his potential and provides a solid #4, and #5 can be held down competently by the likes of Suter, Gallardo, Wilkerson, Lopez or Guerra, and Nelson makes a May comeback and is the same TOR pitcher he showed to be last year, they stand a CHANCE of being in the Wildcard hunt.

 

But that's a lot of "ands" ...

[Oldcity]

It would be a bit disappointing and definitely surprising, but not the end of the world at all. It would probably increase the chance of adding a starting around the trade deadline if the team is playing well.

[Dadbauer]

We can be successful, yes, because we were last year. Our guys are underrated and actually performed really well last year. The problem is, a lot went right last year, and even more has to go right last year. In my opinion, no starter we have is a sure thing.

 

Anderson - Really good last season and the half season before, but a late bloomer. Hard to sustain how good he was last year.

 

Davies - Inconsistent last year but really came along. Doesn't have the stuff to overpower hitters so he really need to be "on" with his command.

 

Chacin - Don't know too much about him, but looks like his floor is high and his ceiling is low - an average to good pitcher who is consistently average to good.

 

Nelson - Last year was the only year he was really great AND he's coming off a major injury. Impossible to predict.

 

Beyond that, we have a lot of youngs (Wilkerson, Woodruff), unprovens (Suter), reclamations (Gallardo) and one year wonders (Guerra).

 

We can go into the season with what we have and do really well, but a lot has to go right. If things DO go right, we can compete. In my opinion, adding a starter isn't a necessity in that we need to improve TALENT, but we DO need to add more stability. We have a lot of ifs, and every proven talent we add just makes it more likely we succeed.

 

Look at the Astros last year - they were cruising to a division title with a pretty good rotation. On paper, Fiers was ok, and he had some decent stats in the past to back them up. IF he was on, things would be good, right? But the Astros saw and opportunity to get Verlander. Did they need him? No. Were they bad without him? No. But did he make them a better team and help win a World Series? Yes. This offseason, that rotation still looks pretty good, and they have options like McHugh and Peacock to fill in the back end of the rotation. Sounds fine right? Both guys have past success, and CAN succeed at the major league level. They should stand pat, right? NOPE! They go out and get Gerritt Cole. Did they need him? No. Were they bad without him? No. Does he make them a better team and will they win a World Series? We will see about the WS, but it certainly makes them more dangerous and even if Cole isn't as good as his reputation may lead you to believe, he's an impact pitcher.

[jonescm128]

I don't really agree with the whole "he had a breakout year and is due for regression" or "hard to sustain his success". Look at Jake Arrieta. He was pretty bad with the Orioles and had a breakout year with the Cubs at age 28. Chase Anderson had his breakout at age 28 (second half of 2016) and continued that through 2017. He made some adjustments and success followed. Same thing with Nelson (although his shoulder is a whole other issue)

 

Some guys just take longer to figure things out.

[Fear The Chorizo]

trade deadline is only about 5 months away...many more impact veteran starters will come available between now and then, some of which could be had for significantly less value than what the Rays purportedly want for Archer or the Jays want for Stroman...

 

not the end of the world by any stretch - also, it's not like the moves the Brewers have already made are for this year only.

[82brewcrew82]

My thought is if they don't add a starter, and Davies and Anderson pitch like they did last season, and Chacin provides solid #3-like numbers, and Woodruff fulfills his potential and provides a solid #4, and #5 can be held down competently by the likes of Suter, Gallardo, Wilkerson, Lopez or Guerra, and Nelson makes a May comeback and is the same TOR pitcher he showed to be last year, they stand a CHANCE of being in the Wildcard hunt.

 

But that's a lot of "ands" ...

Way too many "ifs". The problem is that we are not competing against hypothetical definitions of where a pitcher slots in to a rotation. We are competing against teams that have better, deeper rotations than we do. I'm not even convinced we have the second or third best rotation in the division much less the league. if you are expecting to compete you don't go into the season hoping guys like Wilkerson and Suter can hold down the fifth spot.

[jonescm128]

not the end of the world by any stretch - also, it's not like the moves the Brewers have already made are for this year only.

 

and this is a great point...Stearns has said many times that he wants to be able to sustain a competitive team. We aren't just competing for this year, we are competing for the next 4 or 5 years.

[JackNicholson1974]

If we dont add another starter we should start a "Can Domingo Santana Pitch?" thread.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If we dont add another starter we should start a "Can Domingo Santana Pitch?" thread.

 

Or perhaps go with the slowpitch softball-inspired 4-outfielder defensive alignment. I mean, no one really likes our 2B options anyway, so lets just not have one.

[Boomer5]

If they don't make a big move in the rotation (they will) then they should have just let our young outfielders develop.

[3and2Fastball]

Ryan Braun's window closed. The "new window" surrounding Cain and especially Yelich is 2018-2020 for the most part, with 2021 being still a Yelich window. The hopes are that Arcia and Hader can take the next steps into becoming stars...

 

If we don't add a starter it would be disappointing. It would be a waste, to me,of the 1st year of this window. But there are still other years coming, with hopes that Burnes and Hiura can be impact players as soon as 2019....

[liveforoctober]

My thought is if they don't add a starter, and Davies and Anderson pitch like they did last season, and Chacin provides solid #3-like numbers, and Woodruff fulfills his potential and provides a solid #4, and #5 can be held down competently by the likes of Suter, Gallardo, Wilkerson, Lopez or Guerra, and Nelson makes a May comeback and is the same TOR pitcher he showed to be last year, they stand a CHANCE of being in the Wildcard hunt.

 

But that's a lot of "ands" ...

Way too many "ifs". The problem is that we are not competing against hypothetical definitions of where a pitcher slots in to a rotation. We are competing against teams that have better, deeper rotations than we do. I'm not even convinced we have the second or third best rotation in the division much less the league. if you are expecting to compete you don't go into the season hoping guys like Wilkerson and Suter can hold down the fifth spot.

 

This is a slightly pessimistic take on how we can be successful this season. The Brewers were 1 game out of the division last year and won 86 games. The Cubs rotation is definitely better than last year AND the Brewers had a lot of great things happen last season (Shaw, Knebel, Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Pina, etc)

 

But...

 

Do you all remember how much went WRONG last year?

 

- Our starting closer (Feliz) was released after 2ish months because he was a shade worse than terrible.

- Our #4 starter (Peralta) was demoted and released because at one point we thought Michael Blazek was a better option to start than him.

- 1st half Villar happened.

- Our #3 hitter (Braun), a guy who still garnered MVP votes 2 years ago, missed 1/3 of the season due to injury.

- Our opening day starter (Guerra) never made it out of start #1 due to a freak batting accident and was more or less a non factor the rest of the year.

- Our 2nd best starter (Anderson) missed 6+ weeks through a freak batting accident.

- Our best pitcher (Nelson) missed the most crucial stretch of the season due to a rigid first base.

- Due to the above, our #5 spot in the rotation was BRUTAL. I can't imagine any team in MLB had worse performance from their #5 spot than we did.

- Our team struck out the most times in MLB History.

 

I'm probably missing a few more things... but if we see even marginal improvement in any/all of those categories ... with the upgrade to our starting OF and the addition of Chacin and (insert possible next SP addition here) ... why on earth can't we be a 90 win team this year?

[3and2Fastball]

liveforoctober: you make great points, but that is all the more reason why we need more pitching, because you cannot rely on 5 starters to stay injury free.

 

It is a real stretch of the imagination for me to think that Anderson will be as good as he was last year. It is possible, certainly, but I'm not counting on it. Chacin is a good addition. Woodruff is a bit of a wildcard. There are zero guarantees that Nelson will be an effective starter again. Shoulder injuries are as unpredictable as it gets. If he puts up similar production to his 2015-2016 numbers it wouldn't shock me.

 

Not directed at anyone in particular: And our goal is to win a World Series, not to hang another embarrassing wildcard pennant on the wall!

[monty57]

I hope we aren't looking at a "window" at all, but rather just saw some guys who looked to be "on sale" in Cain and Yelich, so we picked them up to improve the team.

 

As to potentially not adding a starter, I'll first say that I think we will add someone, but if we don't, then I'd expect Suter to be our #5 going into the season. In 22 games last year (14 starts), he posted a 3.42 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 7.05 k/9, 2.42 BB/9 for a 1.6 WAR.

 

He's one of those guys like Davies who has consistently put up good numbers without good "stuff," so he's never been highly regarded even though he gets guys out. I think we'd be okay with Suter, but I think we will make a move. I just think that the way to look at whatever move we make has to be relative to Suter. i.e. if we do something, it has to be significantly better than a 1.6 or so WAR or we'd better not pay too much for it.

 

In that light, Fangraphs projects Cobb to post 1.5-1.6 WAR (he was at 2.4 in 2017). Is it worth signing Cobb to a 4 yr / $60M deal if he's only slightly better than Suter? I don't think so. Arrieta is projected to post around a 3 WAR, which would be an upgrade, but the decision comes down to whether that upgrade is worth $20-25M a year for 4-6 years, when he's already in his early 30's.

 

Again, I think Stearns will do something, but marginal return is important. Are 1.5 additional wins worth paying $20-25M/year to a declining player? I personally hope he finds something more reasonable. If not, he was willing to give Davies a shot and that paid off, so he may be willing to give another guy who puts up numbers without great "stuff" a shot, and we might open the season with Suter as our #5 until Nelson returns. It's not sexy, and the "win now" crowd would not like it, but it could be the sensible move.

[Boomer5]

If Cain and Yelich were on sale then I'd sure hate to see what they would cost if they weren't. Cain in particular has a no trade clause so he is worthless as an asset unless he is playing at a high level for a team that is all in the next two years. If the window was longer, you'd just let our young guys develop instead of bringing on a 32 year old at a super premium cost.

 

Stearns gave up pretty much everyone but Ueker to acquire two outfielders we didn't really need unless we were truly going to go for a WS title. We haven't done enough to get us there and we have a roster that makes no sense, which is why more will happen.

 

I do think we will pick up Arrieta or Cobb and we will likely trade our remaining top prospects for an Archer type either this spring or if they see Nelson can't come back to 2017 levels from a very difficult injury at the deadline.

 

No half measures.

[bill hAll Star]

If the window was longer, you'd just let our young guys develop instead of bringing on a 32 year old at a super premium cost.

 

We still have the majority of our pitching farm and there are still good OF prospects in the minors. Cain could start at a high level for 3, maybe 4 years and you can still have a window after that.

[SeaBass]

Not directed at anyone in particular: And our goal is to win a World Series, not to hang another embarrassing wildcard pennant on the wall!

 

No offense, I don't think we as fans have earned the right to poo-poo a playoff appearance from a franchise that's only had 4 such appearances since their inception, a span of nearly 50 years.

[superfly]

If Cain and Yelich were on sale then I'd sure hate to see what they would cost if they weren't. Cain in particular has a no trade clause so he is worthless as an asset unless he is playing at a high level for a team that is all in the next two years. If the window was longer, you'd just let our young guys develop instead of bringing on a 32 year old at a super premium cost.

 

Stearns gave up pretty much everyone but Ueker to acquire two outfielders we didn't really need unless we were truly going to go for a WS title. We haven't done enough to get us there and we have a roster that makes no sense, which is why more will happen.

 

I do think we will pick up Arrieta or Cobb and we will likely trade our remaining top prospects for an Archer type either this spring or if they see Nelson can't come back to 2017 levels from a very difficult injury at the deadline.

 

No half measures.

 

Cain's no trade disappears as the contract goes on AFAIK.

 

I really don't see how we gave up "everyone" either. We traded a flier OF with huge upside/huge bust risk, another OF with huge upside/huge bust risk (and neither fit the Stearns mold for hitting), a 2B who is also high risk/high bust risk with the bat (and doesn't fit the Stearns mold for hitting), and threw a pitcher in there for kicks. All for 4-5 years of a blossoming OF who instantly became the best position player on the entire team. That's giving up the farm?

 

I trust we didn't sign Cain to just sit on our hands. There wouldn't have been a point to creating a logjam in the OF if there wasn't a path out of it. David Stearns isn't Brian Cashman of 5-10 years ago just signing people because "he can" or that Padres GM that wheeled and dealed just because it felt good. He'll sign someone(s) and/or trade for one.

[Warning Track Power]

If Cain and Yelich were on sale then I'd sure hate to see what they would cost if they weren't. Cain in particular has a no trade clause so he is worthless as an asset unless he is playing at a high level for a team that is all in the next two years. If the window was longer, you'd just let our young guys develop instead of bringing on a 32 year old at a super premium cost.

 

Stearns gave up pretty much everyone but Ueker to acquire two outfielders we didn't really need unless we were truly going to go for a WS title. We haven't done enough to get us there and we have a roster that makes no sense, which is why more will happen.

 

I do think we will pick up Arrieta or Cobb and we will likely trade our remaining top prospects for an Archer type either this spring or if they see Nelson can't come back to 2017 levels from a very difficult injury at the deadline.

 

No half measures.

 

I agree with Boomer. Even if the Brewers didn't value Brinson, Harrison and Diaz as much, they still had enormous value in the trade market. That package may have gotten you Archer or Stroman but instead they got Yelich. A rotation headlined by Archer or Stroman and an OF without Yelich (Braun-Cain-Santana) may be a better team than what the Brewers will be putting out there in 2018.

 

There was no discount in acquiring Yelich. 5 years and $80 million for a 32-36 year old season for a CF is no discount. While I love both moves, the acquisition of both tells me the Brewers have more moves to make. Braun to first is a mirage IMO and you can't play Santana part time and expect him to hold whatever value he currently has. Same with Broxton. The Brewers can't be rooting for an injury to one of the OF but that is the only way enough playing time is opened up for Braun-Yelich-Cain-Santana-Broxton-Phillips.

 

Stearns has a trade to make and will do so prior to Opening Day.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

There was no discount in acquiring Yelich. 5 years and $80 million for a 32-36 year old season for a CF is no discount. While I love both moves, the acquisition of both tells me the Brewers have more moves to make. Braun to first is a mirage IMO and you can't play Santana part time and expect him to hold whatever value he currently has. Same with Broxton. The Brewers can't be rooting for an injury to one of the OF but that is the only way enough playing time is opened up for Braun-Yelich-Cain-Santana-Broxton-Phillips.

 

Stearns has a trade to make and will do so prior to Opening Day.

 

If Braun to 1B is a mirage, where does he play? You don't acquire Yelich to play him out of position in RF, and while I suppose Braun could play in RF, he's not the ideal solution there, either.

 

I agree that there are likely several personnel moves this team has left to make, because the makeup of the roster doesn't make a lot of sense. I would imagine Santana, Broxton and one of Thames/Aguiar are all on the trade block, which opens up 1B for Braun to be part of a platoon there, with the rest of Braun's starts coming in LF, giving Yelich breathers or kicking Yelich to CF to give Cain breathers. I still believe that Phillips will see most of the time in RF.

[monty57]

If Cain and Yelich were on sale then I'd sure hate to see what they would cost if they weren't. Cain in particular has a no trade clause so he is worthless as an asset unless he is playing at a high level for a team that is all in the next two years. If the window was longer, you'd just let our young guys develop instead of bringing on a 32 year old at a super premium cost.

 

Stearns gave up pretty much everyone but Ueker to acquire two outfielders we didn't really need unless we were truly going to go for a WS title. We haven't done enough to get us there and we have a roster that makes no sense, which is why more will happen.

 

I do think we will pick up Arrieta or Cobb and we will likely trade our remaining top prospects for an Archer type either this spring or if they see Nelson can't come back to 2017 levels from a very difficult injury at the deadline.

 

No half measures.

 

JosephC did a good write-up of how there is really no way the Marlins could get anywhere near the excess surplus value Yelich provides, so while we gave up a lot, we probably didn't give up what he is actually worth. He was a unique situation because of the circumstances surrounding Miami this offseason, so Stearns made the deal.

 

I agree with you in that I don't generally like signing guys past 30 to multi-year deals, but Cain has steadily been one of the best OF in baseball over the past four seasons. Stearns thinks he will age well, and while I am skeptical as to whether you can predict how a player will age, if Stearns thinks he will be able to provide 3-4 WAR/season for the next few years, then he would presumably see $16M/year to be "on sale."

 

He wasn't making deals to go "all in." Rather, he thought he got good deals for guys who could make the team better, so he jumped.

 

As I stated, I think the Brewers will still add a starter, but probably not on a bad deal. Since we have excess OFs, finding a pitcher in trade using our MLB surplus (Santana, Broxton, Thames, Aguilar) makes a lot more sense then signing a free agent to a big money deal or trading away our prospects. I think trading Santana was "Plan A" all along, otherwise I agree with you that it didn't make sense to add two outfielders. However, if (for instance) Stearns sees something he likes in Cotton and can get him for Broxton, then he might be a way to hold onto Santana and move Braun to 1st, giving us a really good offense to go along with a pitching staff that did pretty well a year ago.

 

We as fans need to get out of the "window" mindset and realize that Stearns isn't sacrificing the future to win this year, but is continually looking for ways to improve the team. If you continually look for any and all ways to add talent to the franchise, you will end up with a talented franchise that will produce winning baseball teams.

[Warning Track Power]

There was no discount in acquiring Yelich. 5 years and $80 million for a 32-36 year old season for a CF is no discount. While I love both moves, the acquisition of both tells me the Brewers have more moves to make. Braun to first is a mirage IMO and you can't play Santana part time and expect him to hold whatever value he currently has. Same with Broxton. The Brewers can't be rooting for an injury to one of the OF but that is the only way enough playing time is opened up for Braun-Yelich-Cain-Santana-Broxton-Phillips.

 

Stearns has a trade to make and will do so prior to Opening Day.

 

If Braun to 1B is a mirage, where does he play? You don't acquire Yelich to play him out of position in RF, and while I suppose Braun could play in RF, he's not the ideal solution there, either.

 

I agree that there are likely several personnel moves this team has left to make, because the makeup of the roster doesn't make a lot of sense. I would imagine Santana, Broxton and one of Thames/Aguiar are all on the trade block, which opens up 1B for Braun to be part of a platoon there, with the rest of Braun's starts coming in LF, giving Yelich breathers or kicking Yelich to CF to give Cain breathers. I still believe that Phillips will see most of the time in RF.

Braun will be in the OF. Braun-Cain-Yelich with Phillips as the 4th OF. Santana and maybe Broxton will be moved. I just don't see Braun being successful at 1B. Trust me, I hope I am wrong because having Braun and Santana in the lineup would be amazing. I just don't see it.

[jonescm128]

I hope we aren't looking at a "window" at all, but rather just saw some guys who looked to be "on sale" in Cain and Yelich, so we picked them up to improve the team.

 

As to potentially not adding a starter, I'll first say that I think we will add someone, but if we don't, then I'd expect Suter to be our #5 going into the season. In 22 games last year (14 starts), he posted a 3.42 ERA, 3.75 FIP, 4.15 xFIP, 7.05 k/9, 2.42 BB/9 for a 1.6 WAR.

 

He's one of those guys like Davies who has consistently put up good numbers without good "stuff," so he's never been highly regarded even though he gets guys out. I think we'd be okay with Suter, but I think we will make a move. I just think that the way to look at whatever move we make has to be relative to Suter. i.e. if we do something, it has to be significantly better than a 1.6 or so WAR or we'd better not pay too much for it.

 

In that light, Fangraphs projects Cobb to post 1.5-1.6 WAR (he was at 2.4 in 2017). Is it worth signing Cobb to a 4 yr / $60M deal if he's only slightly better than Suter? I don't think so. Arrieta is projected to post around a 3 WAR, which would be an upgrade, but the decision comes down to whether that upgrade is worth $20-25M a year for 4-6 years, when he's already in his early 30's.

 

Again, I think Stearns will do something, but marginal return is important. Are 1.5 additional wins worth paying $20-25M/year to a declining player? I personally hope he finds something more reasonable. If not, he was willing to give Davies a shot and that paid off, so he may be willing to give another guy who puts up numbers without great "stuff" a shot, and we might open the season with Suter as our #5 until Nelson returns. It's not sexy, and the "win now" crowd would not like it, but it could be the sensible move.

 

I like Woodruff to be the #5 and you can use Suter as a long reliver. His "craftiness" would be tough for hitters to adjust to after facing the other starters (as we saw last year during the first time through the order)