Starting Rotations (Stats)

[pacopete4]

We've done a lot of discussion about what is an Ace or TOR type pitcher but does anyone have any averages for what a #1 looks like or a #2 or a #3 and so on? I see some people post things like I would like player A to become a #3 in our rotation and then they post that they want them to put up 180 innings+ and a 3.75 ERA. Is that really what a #3 looks like? I mean we averaged a 4 ERA last year and we were #9 in all of baseball.

[sveumrules]

Only 58 pitchers qualified for the ERA title this year, so even throwing 160 innings is pretty rare at this point. Less than 2 such pitchers per team on average.

 

To get 150 pitchers on the 2017 leaderboard you need to set the minimum IP to 80.

 

Just to take the cited 180 IP/3.75 ERA the closest to that in 2017 was Darvish who came in at 186.2 IP with a 3.86 ERA good for 3.5 fWAR, 17th in MLB.

 

Probably the quickest/dirtiest way is to say the top 30 starters in 2017 posted between 3.2 & 7.7 fWAR, 31-60 posted between 2.3 & 3.1 fWAR, 61-90 posted between 1.4 & 2.3 fWAR, 91-120 posted between 1.0 & 1.4 fWAR & 121-150 posted between 0.6 & 1.0 fWAR.

 

Based on those WAR totals I'd say Anderson & Davies are probably 2/3's with Jhoulys & Woodruff as 3/4's. Suter probably a 4/5.

[monty57]

Probably the quickest/dirtiest way is to say the top 30 starters in 2017 posted between 3.2 & 7.7 fWAR, 31-60 posted between 2.3 & 3.1 fWAR, 61-90 posted between 1.4 & 2.3 fWAR, 91-120 posted between 1.0 & 1.4 fWAR & 121-150 posted between 0.6 & 1.0 fWAR.

 

Based on those WAR totals I'd say Anderson & Davies are probably 2/3's with Jhoulys & Woodruff as 3/4's. Suter probably a 4/5.

 

That was how I was going to divvy it up as well. Since some teams have multiple "#1 guys" while others throw a "#4" out as their opening day starter, I think it's better to look at the top 30 pitchers instead of the average stats for each teams' #1, #2, etc.

 

All told, the Brewers rotation is not nearly as bad as many are making it out to be, especially if Nelson comes back strong. That's why I don't think we need to go overboard on spending for another starter. We could use someone else, but we don't need to mortgage the future on him.

[nate82]

We've done a lot of discussion about what is an Ace or TOR type pitcher but does anyone have any averages for what a #1 looks like or a #2 or a #3 and so on? I see some people post things like I would like player A to become a #3 in our rotation and then they post that they want them to put up 180 innings+ and a 3.75 ERA. Is that really what a #3 looks like? I mean we averaged a 4 ERA last year and we were #9 in all of baseball.

 

Depends on your definition of what a #3 is. If you are using the old model then yes 180 innings+ and a 3.75 ERA would be a #3 pitcher but that definition is starting to get a bit old even though that would probably be true about 5-years ago. I haven't looked but the trend of starters going 5-6 innings max has been going up even your #2's and #1's are closer to 6-innings per game than they are closer to 7 innings per game.

 

In the last 5 years from 2013-2017 there are a total of about 12 pitchers who average about 7 innings per start. Going further there are only 24 pitchers in that time span that have average greater than or equal to 180 IP. Of those 24 only 7 have pitched 200+ innings on average, only 6 players have pitched 180-189 IP per year, and the final 11 players pitched between 190-199 IP per year.

 

7 players at 200+ IP for the last 5-years:

Max Scherzer

Jeff Samardzija

Chris Sale

Corey Kluber

Jon Lester

R.A. Dickey

Jose Quintana

 

6 players at 180-189 IP for the last 5-years:

Chris Archer

Bartolo Colon

Wade Miley

Gio Gonzalez

Ervin Santana

Ian Kennedy

 

11 players at 190-199 IP for the last 5-years:

Justin Verlander

Clayton Kershaw

Cole Hamels

Julio Teheran

Rick Porcello

Madison Bumgarner

John Lackey

Zack Greinke

Mike Leake

David Price

James Shields

 

Some of these like Kershaw, Price, and Bumgarner are because of injuries so they should probably be around the 200+ IP mark. The others like Lakey, Greinke, and Shields are all at or near the ends of their careers. I wouldn't be surprised if Greinke is closer to 180 range going forward.

 

A #3 starter right now in the league is someone that is going to give you about 160 IP a year and an ERA of around 3.8-4.0. The days of starters going deep into the game has passed. By looking at the number of complete games in the past 5-years you can see this is true as there were only 433 complete games registered in the last 5-years. Some of the total complete games in the last 5-years for some players were single season numbers for pitchers in the past. The top 10 players in the past 5-years for complete games account for about 84% of all complete games for the last 5-years.

 

Top 10 in the last 5-years in complete games

Clayton Kershaw

Corey Kluber

Chris Sale

Madison Bumgarner

David Price

Johnny Cueto

Adam Wainwright

Dallas Keuchel

Rick Porcello

 

Baseball has changed and it started in the earlier 2000's as we started to see less and less and complete games by pitchers. The bullpens have picked up the slack from the starters and are now just as important if not more important than starters to a team.

[brewerfan82]

I took a stab at this. Sorted the 2017 SPs by WAR and then found averages by group (ie. #1 pitcher is players 1 through 30, #2 pitcher is players 31 through 60, etc.):

 

[pre]Average SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA-

#1 (1 to 30) 12.3 6.2 26.5 160.0 9.4 2.8 1.0 .275 3.06 3.57 3.73 3.6 1.13 69.7

#2 (31 to 60) 10.3 8.4 25.7 149.7 8.3 2.9 1.1 .292 3.77 3.93 4.11 2.6 1.26 87.1

#3 (61 to 90) 8.8 7.8 23.8 133.6 7.9 3.1 1.3 .295 4.24 4.39 4.38 1.7 1.33 97.9

#4 (91 to 120) 7.7 9.3 24.3 137.3 8.0 3.1 1.3 .309 4.60 4.44 4.33 1.6 1.39 105.8

#5 (121 to 150) 6.4 8.3 22.1 118.7 7.3 3.4 1.6 .300 5.15 5.10 4.87 0.7 1.45 117.1[/pre]

 

That gives an average look at what each pitcher type looks like. Next I shifted the groups I averaged to estimate what a player at the lower limit of each category would look like (ie. I average players 15 to 45 to estimate what a #30 pitcher looks like and therefore a #1 pitcher should have at least those stats):

 

[pre]Threshold SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA-

#1 (15 to 45) 10.8 7.4 25.4 150.2 8.7 2.9 1.1 .286 3.47 3.84 3.99 2.8 1.22 79.3

#2 (45 to 75) 9.6 8.6 25.4 144.5 7.8 3.0 1.1 .291 4.04 4.19 4.34 2.1 1.29 92.7

#3 (75 to 105) 7.9 7.9 23.6 132.1 8.4 3.2 1.3 .303 4.39 4.39 4.32 1.7 1.35 101.7

#4 (105 to 135) 7.8 9.3 24.2 134.4 7.4 3.1 1.4 .310 4.86 4.68 4.52 1.3 1.43 110.9

#5 (135 to 165) 5.2 9.2 21.1 109.7 7.3 3.6 1.7 .302 5.53 5.28 4.99 0.5 1.49 126.6[/pre]

 

And here are the Brewers' 2018 ZiPS projections:

 

[pre]Brewers ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-)

Nelson 3.74 3.79 85 9.1 3.1 3.5 2

Davies 4.05 4.06 91 6.8 2.6 3.4 2-3

Woodruff 4.17 4.17 93 8.2 3.2 1.9 2-3

Anderson 4.32 4.48 100 7.9 2.9 1.9 3-4

Chacin 4.77 4.68 108 7.5 3.8 1.2 4-5[/pre]

 

I'm sure there are many holes in this technique, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

[pacopete4]

Thank you Mr.Allen. That data is very interesting to see. Sometimes I think our expectations of what we need out of certain pitchers might be very unrealistic.

[reillymcshane]

MrAllen, thanks for the work.

 

Did you use fWAR or bWAR for you stats? Just curious.

[brewerfan82]

fWAR, exported data from Fangraphs

[reillymcshane]

fWAR, exported data from Fangraphs

gracias, sir.

[TJseven7]

Fantastic stuff Mr Allen.

 

A few points:

I've called an ace a pitcher at 200 ip and close to 3 era.

I've called a 1TOR over 180 ip and roughly 3.3 era. (Injury time missed forgiven)

I was a little critcal on #2TOR.

 

in general, I like your numbers :-)

 

As for zips and our staff. If I'm a talent evaluator who believes in my analytical system the first thing Im doing is checking my values vs the other analytical systems values and finding the people who fall into their blind spot. That's my value stealing opportunities. Anderson and Chacin could be that exact example.

 

Projections on a number of our guys were just flat wrong. The ensuing year those same projections have doubled down on last years pessimism. They could be right. They could be wrong.

 

However,

Over his last 200 ip Anderson has been a 2.7 era guy. Last part of 2016 and all of 2017. There was a light switch moment last year for Nelson that was the product of over a year of work on changed mechanics. The alter for anderson was smaller but also created a gigantic improvement that sustained over an offseason and dl stint.

 

If the 2.7 or even 3.0 era holds for Anderson he's a 1 and flirting with ace territory.

Nelson is a upper to mid 2 if he can return to last years form. As in the entire body of work. After 5 starts 28.2 ip jimmy was a 5.34 era guy. The joke on a local radio station of the start that saved his season came in start 7. He closed they year out with 51 er over 146.2 ip for a 3.13 era. Thats a 1 flirting with ace level.

Davies repeats his numbers and hes top of 3 or bottom of 2 teir. If he can post the era he's had after his 1st 3 starts of 2016 or 1st 4 starts of 2017... aka start the season strong... he is a upper to middle 2.

If chacin can repeat his 180ip sub 4 era showing. Career norm era. He's a low 2 top of 3 as well.

Woodruff I can make no case to argue zips. Zips has him as a solid 3. I honestly think his projection is too favorable.

 

By these numbers we have a #1(maybe 2), two 2s, and two 3s when Nelson is back if they don't regress.

 

That's pretty strong.

 

With the talk of declining start length it leads to the talk of an 8 man pen.

Knebel albers hader jeffress barnes logan ??? Suter

 

With a multi position guy like perez can you afford to go a short bench of vogt, perez, thames, broxton? Or vogt thames sogard perez? Phillips or Broxton being promoted for DL stints.

[bluescale]

[pre]Threshold SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA-

#1 (15 to 45) 10.8 7.4 25.4 150.2 8.7 2.9 1.1 .286 3.47 3.84 3.99 2.8 1.22 79.3

#2 (45 to 75) 9.6 8.6 25.4 144.5 7.8 3.0 1.1 .291 4.04 4.19 4.34 2.1 1.29 92.7

#3 (75 to 105) 7.9 7.9 23.6 132.1 8.4 3.2 1.3 .303 4.39 4.39 4.32 1.7 1.35 101.7

#4 (105 to 135) 7.8 9.3 24.2 134.4 7.4 3.1 1.4 .310 4.86 4.68 4.52 1.3 1.43 110.9

#5 (135 to 165) 5.2 9.2 21.1 109.7 7.3 3.6 1.7 .302 5.53 5.28 4.99 0.5 1.49 126.6[/pre]

 

And here are the Brewers' 2018 ZiPS projections:

 

[pre]Brewers ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-)

Nelson 3.74 3.79 85 9.1 3.1 3.5 2

Davies 4.05 4.06 91 6.8 2.6 3.4 2-3

Woodruff 4.17 4.17 93 8.2 3.2 1.9 2-3

Anderson 4.32 4.48 100 7.9 2.9 1.9 3-4

Chacin 4.77 4.68 108 7.5 3.8 1.2 4-5[/pre]

 

I'm sure there are many holes in this technique, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

 

Very interesting approach. Like you said, there may be some holes, but it still paints a picture. Let's take a look how this same information looks for the Cardinals and the Cubs:

[pre]

Cardinals ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-)

Martinez 3.36 3.53 82 9.1 3.0 4.4 1-2

Wacha 3.02 3.81 95 8.2 3.7 2.8 2-3

Weaver 3.77 3.68 89 8.2 2.3 2.1 2-3

Mikolas 4.13 4.24 98 7.7 3.0 2.0 3-4

Wainwright 4.09 3.87 97 7.0 2.8 1.6 3-4[/pre]

[pre]

Cubs ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-)

Quintana 3.19 3.13 73 9.1 2.2 4.9 1

Darvish 3.24 3.22 76 11.0 2.7 4.0 1

Lester 3.54 3.69 85 8.9 2.5 3.5 2

Hendricks 3.48 3.74 80 7.9 2.3 3.2 1-2

Chatwood 4.24 4.34 100 7.2 4.2 1.7 3[/pre]

If the Cubs hadn't signed Darvish, his projected numbers would have been replaced with:

[pre]

ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-)

Montgomery 4.11 4.43 102 7.5 4.2 1.5 4[/pre]

 

Signing Darvish really changed the quality of the Cubs' rotation significantly.

[TJseven7]

Yes, no regression from anderson and a return of Nelson to where he left off would have our rotations fairly close. Then Darvish happened and we got left behind.

 

Twas the reason I was livid!

[RobDeer 45]

Mr. Allen - thanks so much! Really awesome stuff.

 

I think we all really want a true ace, but they aren't easy to come by. They can be huge for big games and the playoffs (See Sabathia), but I sometimes wonder if having a group of 2's and 3-4's is better.

[bluescale]

I think we all really want a true ace, but they aren't easy to come by. They can be huge for big games and the playoffs (See Sabathia), but I sometimes wonder if having a group of 2's and 3-4's is better.

 

It's always good to have a true #1. The good news for the Brewers is that if Nelson's jump last year was real (and his peripheral stats indicate a genuine leap in skill, not luck), and if the changes don't contribute to injury risk, he's a true #1 pitcher. He put up his numbers with a hugely unlucky .340 BABIP.

 

It's probably unrealistic to expect him to return to that level when he comes back midway through 2018, but 2019 looks promising.

[clancyphile]

Mr. Allen - thanks so much! Really awesome stuff.

 

I think we all really want a true ace, but they aren't easy to come by. They can be huge for big games and the playoffs (See Sabathia), but I sometimes wonder if having a group of 2's and 3-4's is better.

 

I think if you have an excellent bullpen, you can cover for not having an ace.

 

I feel that the real value of Woodruff/Suter-type pitchers is that if you can produce 3-4-5 starters in your system at a constant rate, it does two things:

1. You're not giving a Matt Garza/Jeff Suppan/Kyle Lohse/Randy Wolf $10-15 million a year to fill that spot, you're filling it at $600K. The Cubs gave Darvish the extra year because the Crew had the cash to spare thanks to Woodruff and Suter (and a ready supply of younger rotation arms in Ventura/Derby/Ortiz/Burnes).

2. Some of these folks become assets and allow you to fill holes elsewhere via trade or a shift to the pen. If the Crew can't extend Davies and/or after 2018, then deal him/them for a host of prospects and put the next in line up. Adding Woodruff to Santana creates a very good package for a true ace OR a host of prospects at the AA/A+/A levels.

[clancyphile]

I took a stab at this. Sorted the 2017 SPs by WAR and then found averages by group (ie. #1 pitcher is players 1 through 30, #2 pitcher is players 31 through 60, etc.):

 

[pre]Average SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA-

#1 (1 to 30) 12.3 6.2 26.5 160.0 9.4 2.8 1.0 .275 3.06 3.57 3.73 3.6 1.13 69.7

#2 (31 to 60) 10.3 8.4 25.7 149.7 8.3 2.9 1.1 .292 3.77 3.93 4.11 2.6 1.26 87.1

#3 (61 to 90) 8.8 7.8 23.8 133.6 7.9 3.1 1.3 .295 4.24 4.39 4.38 1.7 1.33 97.9

#4 (91 to 120) 7.7 9.3 24.3 137.3 8.0 3.1 1.3 .309 4.60 4.44 4.33 1.6 1.39 105.8

#5 (121 to 150) 6.4 8.3 22.1 118.7 7.3 3.4 1.6 .300 5.15 5.10 4.87 0.7 1.45 117.1[/pre]

 

That gives an average look at what each pitcher type looks like. Next I shifted the groups I averaged to estimate what a player at the lower limit of each category would look like (ie. I average players 15 to 45 to estimate what a #30 pitcher looks like and therefore a #1 pitcher should have at least those stats):

 

[pre]Threshold SP W L GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA FIP xFIP WAR WHIP ERA-

#1 (15 to 45) 10.8 7.4 25.4 150.2 8.7 2.9 1.1 .286 3.47 3.84 3.99 2.8 1.22 79.3

#2 (45 to 75) 9.6 8.6 25.4 144.5 7.8 3.0 1.1 .291 4.04 4.19 4.34 2.1 1.29 92.7

#3 (75 to 105) 7.9 7.9 23.6 132.1 8.4 3.2 1.3 .303 4.39 4.39 4.32 1.7 1.35 101.7

#4 (105 to 135) 7.8 9.3 24.2 134.4 7.4 3.1 1.4 .310 4.86 4.68 4.52 1.3 1.43 110.9

#5 (135 to 165) 5.2 9.2 21.1 109.7 7.3 3.6 1.7 .302 5.53 5.28 4.99 0.5 1.49 126.6[/pre]

 

And here are the Brewers' 2018 ZiPS projections:

 

[pre]Brewers ZiPS ERA FIP ERA- K/9 BB/9 zWAR Appx. Slot (based mainly on ERA, FIP, and ERA-)

Nelson 3.74 3.79 85 9.1 3.1 3.5 2

Davies 4.05 4.06 91 6.8 2.6 3.4 2-3

Woodruff 4.17 4.17 93 8.2 3.2 1.9 2-3

Anderson 4.32 4.48 100 7.9 2.9 1.9 3-4

Chacin 4.77 4.68 108 7.5 3.8 1.2 4-5[/pre]

 

I'm sure there are many holes in this technique, but I thought it was interesting nonetheless.

 

Interesting work indeed, MrAllen.

 

Here are some actual WHIP, H9, BB9, and K9 numbers from 2017.

 

Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

All of these seen to fit in the 2-3 slots via peripherals. Maybe a little better...

[TJseven7]

Basically these numbers put Cobb as an upper level 2. Even at last years 3.66.

[TJseven7]

Had some fun with numbers

Starters era 4.1 in 2017

Pen era 3.85 in 2017

Team era 4.0

Anderson Nelson Davies Suter 3.44 era 101 starts 578.1ip...ip/start 5.726

The rest 61 starts 294.1 ip 5.40 era... 4.83 ip/start

 

Anderson 33 starts 5.65 ip/start 186ip ... assumed 3.25 era (.5 r increase on last 203.1)

Davies 33 starts 5.8 ip/start 191 ip.... assumed 4.0 era (like his last 2)

Chacin 32 starts 5.6 ip/start 179 ip... assumed 4.0 era (like last year & career avg)

 

68 runs allowed, 85 ra, 80 ra. 233 runs from 1-2-3

 

Leaves 64 starts... and 316.2 ip... 4.95 ip/starts and 165 runs allowed to match last years starters production.

 

Can the stuff left cover 64 starts at 4.69 era averaging 5 ip per start?

 

Side note: knebel hader 2.5 era, albers 3.0, jeffress barnes logan williams suter 4.0... looks like a pen thats 3.5 era... .35 lower than 2017 which would have dropped team era under 3.9... even with cubs and nats.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Anderson- Please repeat last year's performance.

Chacin- This guy is going to surprise Brewtown. If they acquired him at the deadline they would have made the playoffs in 2017.

Davies- Consistent.

Guerra- Apparently the velocity is back but can he maintain it?

Miley- Rumor has it that Johnson found something he can fix.

Suter- Swing man, 2nd left in the pen.

Gallardo- AAA or released.

Woodruff- AAA (Trade bait?)

Wilkerson- AAA

Burnes- AA (The first man up?)

[MoreTrife]

Had some fun with numbers

Starters era 4.1 in 2017

Pen era 3.85 in 2017

Team era 4.0

Anderson Nelson Davies Suter 3.44 era 101 starts 578.1ip...ip/start 5.726

The rest 61 starts 294.1 ip 5.40 era... 4.83 ip/start

 

Anderson 33 starts 5.65 ip/start 186ip ... assumed 3.25 era (.5 r increase on last 203.1)

Davies 33 starts 5.8 ip/start 191 ip.... assumed 4.0 era (like his last 2)

Chacin 32 starts 5.6 ip/start 179 ip... assumed 4.0 era (like last year & career avg)

 

68 runs allowed, 85 ra, 80 ra. 233 runs from 1-2-3

 

Leaves 64 starts... and 316.2 ip... 4.95 ip/starts and 165 runs allowed to match last years starters production.

 

Can the stuff left cover 64 starts at 4.69 era averaging 5 ip per start?

 

Side note: knebel hader 2.5 era, albers 3.0, jeffress barnes logan williams suter 4.0... looks like a pen thats 3.5 era... .35 lower than 2017 which would have dropped team era under 3.9... even with cubs and nats.

 

And a better offense! I'm optimistic.

[coolhandluke121]

Great thread. I agree with the people saying the Brewers' staff isn't that bad. They do lack an ace to start 3 games in a 7-game playoff series, but getting to the playoffs in the first place is all about having quality depth and not having to start guys like Peralta, Espino, or Blazek.

 

Surprised at some of the projections for Nelson. He does have good stuff though. Despite Anderson's numbers, Nelson is the only true potential #1 on the staff. Anderson still gives up a lot of fly balls and is probably due for significant regression. Nelson just needed better coaching (Derek Johnson if you're reading this I love you MUAH).

[clancyphile]

Anderson- Please repeat last year's performance.

Chacin- This guy is going to surprise Brewtown. If they acquired him at the deadline they would have made the playoffs in 2017.

Davies- Consistent.

Guerra- Apparently the velocity is back but can he maintain it?

Miley- Rumor has it that Johnson found something he can fix.

Suter- Swing man, 2nd left in the pen.

Gallardo- AAA or released.

Woodruff- AAA (Trade bait?)

Wilkerson- AAA

Burnes- AA (The first man up?)

 

Johnson "fixing" Miley has now opened up something very interesting. It may be that Miley and Suter start 2018 in the rotation, Woodruff goes to AAA as the 1st call-up.

 

Anderson

Davies

Suter

Chacin

Miley

[DR28]

This is the first Im hearing of DJ fixing something with Miley.

 

Link?

[TJseven7]

Is there actual talk of Johnson fixing him or was it Wescott as stated in a few articles?

 

Miley turned to his old summer league coach chris wescott and after viewing his video wescott stated he was over rotating and losing his release point... thus the walks spike and bad pitch placement.

[TURBO]

I'll believe it when I see it when it comes to Miley. I have zero faith in him or Gallardo, zero, none, nada, zilch...

 

That (Miley) is just a lot of spring training nonsense talk from someone trying to make it with a team rather than be AAAA fodder, or be cut outright.

 

Gallardo and Miley are toast, to think anything else is just wishful thinking.