Ryan Braun

[TJseven7]

1b... dodgers.... Bellinger?

 

Was thinking LF with Taylor manning cf and lf on braun rest. Joc was bad.

[tigerbrew]

1b... dodgers.... Bellinger?

 

Was thinking LF with Taylor manning cf and lf on braun rest. Joc was bad.

 

 

Yes, Bellinger was really good last year, ROY like Braun. But he hit poorly in the postseason though. Besides playing LF, having Braun as backup 1B will be useful for the Dodgers, and insurance if Bellinger has a sophomore slump.

[Boomer5]

Braun does not have $32M in value.

[TJseven7]

Braun does not have $32M in value.

 

You're saying if Braun was a FA he wouldnt command 11/3 or even 15/2??? Jd wants 25/5 and you think no one should pay Braun? Not even 15/1 then 10/1 then 7/1?

 

You really believe that? Did you misunderstand what I meant by value?

 

His contract is 56/3. His worth is 32 mil over that span. He's a -24 mil contract... but kemp short of going to an AL team to DH is 43/2 and worth next to nothing. He can't field a position anymore. I dont think there's any way for the Dodgers to get something for him short of eating nearly the full amount, which doesn't make them better in any way.

 

We discussed on here before... stearns mentioned buying power. Well here we are not buying at a still low 90-95 mil. With an overstock in the OF and a depressed market on santana. Time to get creative with that buying power and eating a payroll giants garbage is a clever way to do it. There was whispers about it with Ellsbury. People here wondered about Kemp. I'd say there's at least a tiny bit of smoke in regards to a deal just like this.

 

Just like I was told when I melted down about the cubs getting a sweetheart deal on Darvish. We have to build the best team we can. Not worry about them. Well 2 50 grade prospects replaces some of our yelich loss and we can't worry about helping the dodgers. Our team needs to get better.

 

Getting prospects by synthetically making brauns 56/3 a 13/3 would make this team better and avoid selling santana at the wrong time. No one's taking him at 56/3... but 13/3 is a downright steal. Dodgers can't love what Joc did. Puig is still hard to trust. Taylor could turn into a pumpkin. Makes a ton of sense for them to kick us a solid arm and a ss who's blocked forever by seager to turn kemps ph only junk contract into a good LF who can jump into the mix of seager turner bellinger. He'd be a top 4 bat on that team.

 

I think trading a guy who in the current construction of the team has a questionable fit, and a contract that's at about -24 mil makes a lot of sense. -24 mil is bad. -43 mil is worse... but its also done 1 year sooner. Either rude out -8 mil a year or eat -21.5 mil per year and get something of worth to offset it that could actually be a part of your future. Easy choice.

[Boomer5]

$8M per war is not the math anymore.

 

The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar.

 

The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality.

 

I like Braun the hitter, but no, nobody is giving him 15 per year. I could somewhat buy some additional value if he was going to an AL team but the Dodgers would be in the problem we are in now.

 

Taking back Kemps deal makes trading Braun a lot closer to reality but even at that he is still close to being worth maybe 1-2 surplus WAR over the life of the deal if you figure he costs $10M more than Kemp and will generate 3-4 WAR over 3 years.

[TJseven7]

$8M per war is not the math anymore.

 

The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar.

 

The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality.

 

I like Braun the hitter, but no, nobody is giving him 15 per year. I could somewhat buy some additional value if he was going to an AL team but the Dodgers would be in the problem we are in now.

 

Taking back Kemps deal makes trading Braun a lot closer to reality but even at that he is still close to being worth maybe 1-2 surplus WAR over the life of the deal if you figure he costs $10M more than Kemp and will generate 3-4 WAR over 3 years.

 

The only guys on our team that were bought are braun and cain. Everything else is controlled. The team might be worth 248 mil but that doesn't mean its paid that until it hits the market if its retained its value at that point.

 

Darvish just got a soft deal. He's now 31... will decline in the next 6 years. Has pitched 4.25 years worth of starts for 19.4 war. 4.5 war history... 3.8 war year. 6 years to decline. 3 war guy per year over the life of the contract. In a frugal market. Still roughly 7 mil per war.

 

Where are you getting 4 from? And please don't say todd frazier is the piece that shows the entire market changed because that's just silly.

[PeaveyFury]

The problem with this is that Braun is hypothetically a useful player to the Brewers in 2018. Yes, it'd be great to get that money off the books a year early, but he's likely to be a contributor. Kemp will likely be cut, or will waste a roster space.

 

I appreciate the value of the money, but you'd have to get another piece of value for this to make any sense.

[brewmann04]

Bingo Braun I feel will still be a good player for the next 2 season

[Eye Black]

$8M per war is not the math anymore.

 

The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar.

 

The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality.

The dollar value of WAR is determined by the value on the open market (i.e. free agency), not including guys that are cost controlled. The current value is likely a little north of $8 million. I saw estimates going into the offseason that predicted the value per WAR was going to rise to $11 million this year, but I don’t think that is the case based on the signings we’ve seen thus far.

[TJseven7]

The problem with this is that Braun is hypothetically a useful player to the Brewers in 2018. Yes, it'd be great to get that money off the books a year early, but he's likely to be a contributor. Kemp will likely be cut, or will waste a roster space.

 

I appreciate the value of the money, but you'd have to get another piece of value for this to make any sense.

 

Clearly, if a white or lux level prospect isnt coming back with a ticket arm then Stearns is doing Braun a solid and letting him go ring chase. If thats the case I'm pissed at Stearns and I hope we take out the dodgers or they implode 3 years straight. If its eating junk to create surplus value and nets prospects thats wise. If its a 13 mil 2020 book tending, this is cheap and moronic.

[TJseven7]

$8M per war is not the math anymore.

 

The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar.

 

The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality.

The dollar value of WAR is determined by the value on the open market (i.e. free agency), not including guys that are cost controlled. The current value is likely a little north of $8 million. I saw estimates going into the offseason that predicted the value per WAR was going to rise to $11 million this year, but I don’t think that is the case based on the signings we’ve seen thus far.

 

Psst... they jumped the gun a year. Its deflated a bit this year cuz next year its going to explode.

[Jose Cardenal1]

1) Braun to Dodgers for Kemp and Buehler or Mitchell White

 

Dodgers do this because Braun > Kemp and Braun's AAV is less than Kemps helping them stay under luxury tax

 

2) Kemp to Arizona for Greinke

 

Arizona does this to get out of humungous contract (especially after this offseason) and picks up a (very) poor mans JD Martinez. SD is already paying $2.5/yr of Kemps contract, Brewers could add $5/yr to that to make it easier on AZ. With all the salary saved AZ can sign an Arrieta, Cobb or Lynn at a bargin compared to what Greinke was due.

 

Net effect is that Brewers turn Braun into Greinke and White while adding a net $91.5 over 4 years

[TJseven7]

Um....

 

Grienke was a bargain last year. I get he's really expensive but he's averaged 5 war and he's coming off a borderline ace level 6 war season. I'd expect the dude to be worth his contract for awhile still. He needs 16 war over the next 4 to be worth it. Again he just put up 6 and he likes it here. I'd absolutely consider taking it off their hands for nothing. Even in years 34-37. If not giving them the arm we got from LAD to grease the wheels.

 

Kemp to a NL team is worth maybe 5 mil total right now. Maybe. He's Chris Carter defense.

 

Sooo... they'd have to be morons. The 15 mil they'd save wouldn't net Arrieta most likely. Grienke to cobb or lynn is a big step down.

 

Unless there's a crystal ball showing Grienke will implode this year. That's just yikes.

[Boomer5]

$8M per war is not the math anymore.

 

The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar.

 

The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality.

The dollar value of WAR is determined by the value on the open market (i.e. free agency), not including guys that are cost controlled. The current value is likely a little north of $8 million. I saw estimates going into the offseason that predicted the value per WAR was going to rise to $11 million this year, but I don’t think that is the case based on the signings we’ve seen thus far.

 

Well I'm seeing a whole lot of 2-3 WAR guys going for $8M per year. Reed, Swarzak, Chacin, Frazier, even Cain would be under based on $8M. Where are you seeing $8M on the open market?

 

$11M? Are we suggesting a 3 WAR player will be receiving a AAV $33M deal?

[JosephC]

The Braun/Kemp swap doesn't make sense for the Dodgers because, even though Kemp is scheduled to make more that Braun in 2018 and 2019, the average annual value of Braun's deal was higher than Kemp's deal so for luxury tax purposes the Braun contract would actually account for 1 million more than the Kemp contract, which would push the Dodgers even closer to the luxury tax threshold. The Brewers would have to kick in some money, and good luck convincing Attanasio that it's a good idea to pay the Dodgers to dump Kemp on us and as part of it only receive a marginal prospect or two in return.

 

Matt Kemp has no value at this point so it's very safe to say that he is a -43 million in surplus value. It's probably also safe to say that a good portion of MLB teams would view Braun something like a 1.5, 1.0, 0.5 WAR player over the next three years which would put his value at 28.79 million, then subtracting the 57 million he's still owed and that puts him at a -28.21 million in surplus value. So the difference between the two is 14.79 million, then the Brewers kick in 5 million for luxury tax purposes and they should get about 20 million back in prospect surplus value. Obviously the Brewers wouldn't get the pick of the litter since this would only be a salary dump for the Dodgers and they are already under the threshold.

 

I think, at best from the Brewer's perspective, this swap would look something like:

 

Dodgers get:

OF-Ryan Braun

4 million dollars

 

Brewers get:

OF-Matt Kemp

C-Will Smith

RHP-Dustin May

 

Probably the best aspect of this trade is that Kemp's deal runs one year less than Braun. So when 2020 comes around the team wouldn't have to worry about Kemp because he would be gone. However, when 2020 rolls around the Brewers have to think about the 16 million they owe Braun, the 4 million buyout they will owe Braun in 2021 and the concept that Braun very likely just won't be a very good player in 2020.

[McRibMcLove]

$8M per war is not the math anymore.

 

The Brewers are currently projected at 31 WAR which would mean a $248m payroll. The Cubs are 50 WAR which would mean a $400m payroll. The rest of the league is similar.

 

The new numbers are closer to half that. I'd suggest $4-5M per WAR is a lot closer to reality.

 

I like Braun the hitter, but no, nobody is giving him 15 per year. I could somewhat buy some additional value if he was going to an AL team but the Dodgers would be in the problem we are in now.

 

Taking back Kemps deal makes trading Braun a lot closer to reality but even at that he is still close to being worth maybe 1-2 surplus WAR over the life of the deal if you figure he costs $10M more than Kemp and will generate 3-4 WAR over 3 years.

 

I believe the $8M per WAR was for free agents, not for existing players. That was the price you paid to get a player without giving up anything but cash, not the price of constructing a roster from farm, waiver, trade, FA, etc. And I believe the Cubs just paid about $8M per WAR for Darvish.

 

Edit: EyeBlack beat me to it.

[McRibMcLove]

The problem with this is that Braun is hypothetically a useful player to the Brewers in 2018. Yes, it'd be great to get that money off the books a year early, but he's likely to be a contributor. Kemp will likely be cut, or will waste a roster space.

 

I appreciate the value of the money, but you'd have to get another piece of value for this to make any sense.

What value? To pad the owners profits? I am not an Attanasio hater, but at some point the ownership has to spend some of the vast profit they have been raking in to add the necessary players to be championship competitive. The $16M savings means nothing to me when they are likely sitting on over $100M excess cash ($50M from MLB rights, $50M from profit last few years). The Seligs wasted money and didn't make great decisions, the Attanasio ownership makes mostly good decisions (jeff suppan waives hi) and doesn't waste money, but we've got 1 world series appearance under the Seligs and how many under Attanasio? Hmmm?

[RollieTime]

The problem with this is that Braun is hypothetically a useful player to the Brewers in 2018. Yes, it'd be great to get that money off the books a year early, but he's likely to be a contributor. Kemp will likely be cut, or will waste a roster space.

 

I appreciate the value of the money, but you'd have to get another piece of value for this to make any sense.

What value? To pad the owners profits? I am not an Attanasio hater, but at some point the ownership has to spend some of the vast profit they have been raking in to add the necessary players to be championship competitive. The $16M savings means nothing to me when they are likely sitting on over $100M excess cash ($50M from MLB rights, $50M from profit last few years). The Seligs wasted money and didn't make great decisions, the Attanasio ownership makes mostly good decisions (jeff suppan waives hi) and doesn't waste money, but we've got 1 world series appearance under the Seligs and how many under Attanasio? Hmmm?

 

That $16 million is a massive difference for a team like the Brewers. That difference is the ability to sign a high quality pitcher one year earlier. It gives the Brewers a chance to make a splash before 2020 instead of before 2021. That $16 million is what allows the Brewers to sign Cobb to a 4 year, $64 million contract NOW and still have an ADDITIONAL $16 million to bolster the rotation in 2021. Saving that money during the time where Arcia, Shaw, and Knebel will start getting expensive is huge as well since they will be going through their arby years.

 

I am sure that the large profits that Attanasio has received the past couple years, as well as the $50 million from the MLB rights, will start to be spent in the next couple years. I believe that Stearns has been given the “Ok” from Attanasio to push the payroll to $130-$140 million at some point. But that will likely be in the 2020 or 2021 season where Shaw, Yelich, and Arcia are all in their prime, as well as the next wave of prospects are starting to break into the majors. At that time, the Brewers will be set up perfectly to make the big splash signing of an ace or big impact bat. It was a quick rebuild where a lot of the impact players from last season are young and need another year or two to develop. Attanasio is not just pocketing the money. It will be put back into the team when the time is right.

[McRibMcLove]

The problem with this is that Braun is hypothetically a useful player to the Brewers in 2018. Yes, it'd be great to get that money off the books a year early, but he's likely to be a contributor. Kemp will likely be cut, or will waste a roster space.

 

I appreciate the value of the money, but you'd have to get another piece of value for this to make any sense.

What value? To pad the owners profits? I am not an Attanasio hater, but at some point the ownership has to spend some of the vast profit they have been raking in to add the necessary players to be championship competitive. The $16M savings means nothing to me when they are likely sitting on over $100M excess cash ($50M from MLB rights, $50M from profit last few years). The Seligs wasted money and didn't make great decisions, the Attanasio ownership makes mostly good decisions (jeff suppan waives hi) and doesn't waste money, but we've got 1 world series appearance under the Seligs and how many under Attanasio? Hmmm?

 

That $16 million is a massive difference for a team like the Brewers. That difference is the ability to sign a high quality pitcher one year earlier. It gives the Brewers a chance to make a splash before 2020 instead of before 2021. That $16 million is what allows the Brewers to sign Cobb to a 4 year, $64 million contract NOW and still have an ADDITIONAL $16 million to bolster the rotation in 2021. Saving that money during the time where Arcia, Shaw, and Knebel will start getting expensive is huge as well since they will be going through their arby years.

 

1) Anybody paying 4/64 for Cobb is going to lose money on that deal. Cobb isnt that good. In fact it would be foolish to flush down 4 WAR for $16M (the likely "cost" of kemp for Braun), to give Cobb >$8M per WAR.

 

2) They have more than enough flexibility in the budget now. They reportedly offered 5/100 for Darvish. They have claimed to be able to go to $130-$140 (and likely still make money, so let's not pretend that he's busting the bank on that budget). Right now they are sitting at $92M adding cobb at say 12M would put them at $104 and $26-36M under their max budget (in todays dollars, 3 years from now max could be $150M). That leaves plenty of room to add pieces. Will they be able to outbid other teams in free agency next year or the year after is another question (I doubt it). Other than this year, I think the Brewers are at a disadvantage in Free Agency and will need to add TOR pitchers by taking on other teams contracts (when it's cost effective).

[shanedog19]

Could anybody see a major rebound for Kemp playing in the confines of Miller Park? Its not like has been awful the past few years, and has never had the luxury of hitting in a hitter's park. If Stearns can do a Kemp/Braun swap and garner another prospect or two, I think I'd be all over this move.

[Oldcity]

Could anybody see a major rebound for Kemp playing in the confines of Miller Park? Its not like has been awful the past few years, and has never had the luxury of hitting in a hitter's park. If Stearns can do a Kemp/Braun swap and garner another prospect or two, I think I'd be all over this move.

 

Kemp has definitely been awful.

[coolhandluke121]

Depends on the prospects obviously, but it would be nice to keep Santana (assuming the offers are so-so) and not have to worry about Braun's transition to 1b.

 

Obviously the Dodgers have incentives to get under the tax and replace Kemp with Braun. They need every advantage they can get to compete for titles more than they need prospects.

 

For those people saying "it's obviously not going to happen", you're looking at Braun being extremely likely to be traded and Kemp being very difficult to trade in isolation, rather than realizing that so many of the variables that make them individually untradeable cancel out if they're traded for each other + prospects. If Braun is willing to do it, it could happen and would make sense for both teams. We know LAD was his favorite choice all along if he were to be traded, and he's on record saying so. I still believe he wants to stay, but the chance to stay in the outfield and get a title could be a factor.

 

Personally, I would absolutely love to move on from him. I like the new strategy of defense, patience at the plate, reclamation projects, bargains, and youth, and this fits that perfectly. I would love it if this happens and the Brewers get enough prospects to make it worthwhile.

[shanedog19]

Could anybody see a major rebound for Kemp playing in the confines of Miller Park? Its not like has been awful the past few years, and has never had the luxury of hitting in a hitter's park. If Stearns can do a Kemp/Braun swap and garner another prospect or two, I think I'd be all over this move.

 

Kemp has definitely been awful.

 

I mean maybe awful by Kemp's standards, but any worse than Braun? I still feel like this might be a gamble worth taking if we can squeeze a prospect or two out of the Dodgers.

[pacopete4]

Could anybody see a major rebound for Kemp playing in the confines of Miller Park? Its not like has been awful the past few years, and has never had the luxury of hitting in a hitter's park. If Stearns can do a Kemp/Braun swap and garner another prospect or two, I think I'd be all over this move.

 

Kemp has definitely been awful.

 

I mean maybe awful by Kemp's standards, but any worse than Braun? I still feel like this might be a gamble worth taking if we can squeeze a prospect or two out of the Dodgers.

 

Well just by doing a three-year comparison of the two, Braun has about an 80 point advantage in the OPS department during that time (.860 vs. 779) and leads in OPS+ (126 vs. 108). Amazing how some think Braun is that bad of a player. I get the injury talk because last year he was in and out a ton but there are just too many that think what he does on the field is bad all of a sudden.

[Oldcity]

Kemp's bat has really fallen off, but his defense is what makes him terrible. Kemp makes Braun look like Carl Crawford in his prime.