Are we undervaluing Woodruff??

[Fear The Chorizo]

With all the pub burnes has gotten this offseason for being a quality sp prospect (rightfully so, imo), are we selling our 2016 minor league pitcher of the year short, woodruff?

 

I keep forgetting that his 2017 was uneven due to an injury warming up for his mlb debut, then having to rehab in aaa and probably getting rushed to mlb early because of other brewer starting pitcher issues down the stretch.

 

Hopefully he has a healthy spring training and proves to be a much better rotation piece than 2 months'worth of post injury starts last season gave him credit for!

[rickh150]

He reminds me of a young Jimmy Nelson/Ben Sheets type. Burly. He throws fairly hard with good command, a nice slider. You're right in that he had to go through a weird season, rehab and all, and then get pushed into a wild card race. I have high hopes for him.

[RockCoCougars]

Yes in the sense he has been used as almost a throw in with several of the trade proposals I've seen. Almost an afterthought as a piece of the rotation as well.

[BrewersAA]

YES. I believe he’s the reason Stearns has not overpaid for outside SP. it’s funny how soon we forget. Woodruff is who I am most excited about this coming season and his tools are better than any in our current rotation if he puts them together.

[TJseven7]

Yeah his first 4-5 starts gave me the jimmy nelson vibe as well. Guy with some heft to his pitches who just comes at you and makes you do something with his stuff. He faded but we can't be sure where he is just yet. I could see him being anything from 3.8 to 4.8 this year. Either way its a guy you want with this much control. We had garza in that role last year and there was no upside there. Woody you can hope is Nelson good at some point and hope for Davies results this year. He's a clear upgrade on our 4-5 spots last year. I don't think he's TOR like Nelson showed last year but a 3 is very possible.

 

Since I'm hoping for 2 TOR types (maybe anderson and nelson are just that) and three 3s (davies is very close to 1). We need him to be a 3. I don't see it as unlikely. The question is who is the other 1. Hader, burnes, could chacin improve, add one. I still think my hope is at least a year off.

[tigerbrew]

Yes. The price of good starting pitching via trade or FA is very expensive, a small market team like the Brewers can't afford to trade away their TOP pitching prospects. We should develop them into the big league club, guys like Woodruff and Burnes have the potential to be solid SPs.

 

If Woodruff starts the season with the big league club, maybe CC should pull him early like the 5th inning of his starts and let the bullpen handle the rest of the game. Letting Woodruff only pitch through the opposing lineup twice, could increase his effectiveness. The Brewers should have an 8 man bullpen.

[82brewcrew82]

Right after the Yelich/Cain deals I was pretty adamant that they need two more SP's. I've come around on that and think that if they keep Woodruff I'm OK with him in the five slot and adding one pitcher. I'm sure what his value is to be perfectly honest.

[NievesNoNO]

Yes, in some regards I think many of us are. I think he has the upside of Michael Fulmer or as some have said, Jimmy Nelson.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree Woodruff is being undervalued a bit. He pitched reasonably well last season in his first taste, and hopefully will improve going forward.

 

I don't like the comps to Nelson all that much. Woodruff's changeup is a solid pitch while Nelsons was barely usable when he first came up. Woodruff's slider isn't as hard as Nelson's, a bit more room between the 2 pitches. Woodruff also has better command than Nelson did when he first hit the bigs. I think Woodruff is a much better pitcher than Nelson was in his first taste of the bigs. That said, Nelson drastically improved his command while adding a curveball and cut fastball at the mlb level...add the mlb experience and Nelson(pre-injury) is much better than Woodruff currently. I feel like this season Woodruff's most likely outcome is a low 4s ERA while averaging just under 6 innings per start as long as he can keep the ball in the park reasonably well

[reillymcshane]

For what it's worth, this is a pretty in-depth look at Woodruff by RotoGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-the-pros-and-cons-of-brandon-woodruff/

 

The author outlines the pros and cons of Woodruff. In the end, the author isn't sold on Woodruff's consistency and mechanics - but there's lots to like about the guy (and the author has lots of good stuff about Woodruff).

[markedman5]

Let's remember it took Jimmy a few years to become the Jimmy Nelson we saw last season.

 

I'm not sold that we are going to see that from Woodruff in 2018.....his command and breaking stuff has a ways to go.

 

Jimmy made some changes to his delivery before making the jump......Woodruff might need to as well.

[superfly]

I don't think hes being undersold at all. Quite a few people are banking on him (totally unproven at the MLB level) to be a serviceable starter in year 1 over proven vets like Cobb and Lynn.

[trwi7]

I don't think hes being undersold at all. Quite a few people are banking on him (totally unproven at the MLB level) to be a serviceable starter in year 1 over proven vets like Cobb and Lynn.

 

Once again, it's about not wanting to overpay for a couple of 30 year old pitchers who have had injuries and seem to be declining. It's not like everybody is "OMG Woodruff is going to be a #3 starter right away!" It's more like "I'd rather give Woodruff a shot in the rotation over signing Cobb or Lynn to a 4/60 deal.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I agree with superfly that I think fans are vastling OVERVALUING Brandon Woodruff.

 

Perhaps there's a small chance that Woodruff reaches his Jimmy Nelson-type ceiling and can have a season like Nelson did last year but it would likely take years of experience taking lumps at the MLB level (like it took Jimmy) before he is really valuable enough that a contending team would want to hand the ball every 5 days.

[reillymcshane]

Brandon Woodruff threw 43 innings in eight starts with a 4.81 ERA last year. He had a 0.5 bWAR and a 0.6 fWAR. That wasn't bad. It wasn't great either. But it was a decent sized sample.

 

If he can improve a little bit next season - say make 30 starts with a 4.50 ERA - he's a competent fifth starter. That's nothing earth shattering, but it's a huge improvement over our back end of the rotation from last year. (As a note, the average NL starter had a 4.34 ERA last season.)

 

Garza, Espino, Milone, Peralta, Blazek, and Guerra had 50 starts (240 IP) last year with a 5.55 ERA for a -0.1 fWAR and a -2.5 bWAR. So if you can get a guy to just be half-way competent for 30 starts, you're gaining a 2-3 of wins right there. And it's done on the cheap.

 

I think a guy like Woodruff should brought along with patience. Show confidence in him, give him a long leash. There will likely be some growing pains, but I think he has shown some promise. He doesn't need to be great pitcher - or even an average one - at this time. If he can just operate on the fifth step of the rotation - he's making progress. Yes, I want him to do better than that - but I will give him time to get better.

 

I doubt few people see Woodruff as a top of the rotation type - but if he can just be solid - there's a ton of value there - especially while he's inexpensive.

[KeithStone53151]

I agree with superfly that I think fans are vastling OVERVALUING Brandon Woodruff.

 

Perhaps there's a small chance that Woodruff reaches his Jimmy Nelson-type ceiling and can have a season like Nelson did last year but it would likely take years of experience taking lumps at the MLB level (like it took Jimmy) before he is really valuable enough that a contending team would want to hand the ball every 5 days.

 

He absolutely would take some lumps, that should be obvious. You have to give some of your prospects a chance though, using the 5th spot on someone like woodruff helps to hopefully develop our young version of Cobb/Lynn that we can rely on for the next 4-5 years beyond this year. If he stumbles, we have Nelson and Burnes coming as reinforcements plus the deadline. I personally want to make 1 addition to the rotation...not 2...and give Woodruff a chance in one slot

[KeithStone53151]

Brandon Woodruff threw 43 innings in eight starts with a 4.81 ERA last year. He had a 0.5 bWAR and a 0.6 fWAR. That wasn't bad. It wasn't great either. But it was a decent sized sample.

 

If he can improve a little bit next season - say make 30 starts with a 4.50 ERA - he's a competent fifth starter. That's nothing earth shattering, but it's a huge improvement over our back end of the rotation from last year. (As a note, the average NL starter had a 4.34 ERA last season.)

 

Garza, Espino, Milone, Peralta, Blazek, and Guerra had 50 starts (240 IP) last year with a 5.55 ERA for a -0.1 fWAR and a -2.5 bWAR. So if you can get a guy to just be half-way competent for 30 starts, you're gaining a 2-3 of wins right there. And it's done on the cheap.

 

I think a guy like Woodruff should brought along with patience. Show confidence in him, give him a long leash. There will likely be some growing pains, but I think he has shown some promise. He doesn't need to be great pitcher - or even an average one - at this time. If he can just operate on the fifth step of the rotation - he's making progress. Yes, I want him to do better than that - but I will give him time to get better.

 

I doubt few people see Woodruff as a top of the rotation type - but if he can just be solid - there's a ton of value there - especially while he's inexpensive.

 

This. Growing pains at the mlb level have to happen for some prospects, you don't go from AAA to finished product posting mid 3s era. As long as Woodruff is eating innings and posting results at roughly the line oreilly noted or better...it's a big positive for the club moving forward and should keep us competitive in games this year. Imagine if we had a Woodruff that had pitched in the majors for 2 years and was set to post a mid 3s era this season instead of having to gamble on 30 year old Cobb/Lynn for 60 million and hope they don't fall apart...

 

I don't think anybody is anticipating Woodruff rounding into form during the season and posting quality starts consistently with a mid 3s ERA or better...maybe some are but the majority I don't think are.

[TJseven7]

For what it's worth, this is a pretty in-depth look at Woodruff by RotoGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-the-pros-and-cons-of-brandon-woodruff/

 

The author outlines the pros and cons of Woodruff. In the end, the author isn't sold on Woodruff's consistency and mechanics - but there's lots to like about the guy (and the author has lots of good stuff about Woodruff).

 

I noticed the horizontal accuracy this article speaks of. There were times where I remember going, yeah that missed inside corner pitch on the outer 1/3rd. Thing is, I also remembering the pitch being good enough that it often still worked. While accuracy is very important, he has enough quality in his pitches to get away with it a fair amount of the time. It's not a positive but I dont feel it's as damaging as it could be.

 

The nelson we saw last year didn't exist before last year. Hopefully woodruff can polish up the alterations he needs quicker than Jimmy.

[KeithStone53151]

For what it's worth, this is a pretty in-depth look at Woodruff by RotoGraphs:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/pitcher-spotlight-the-pros-and-cons-of-brandon-woodruff/

 

The author outlines the pros and cons of Woodruff. In the end, the author isn't sold on Woodruff's consistency and mechanics - but there's lots to like about the guy (and the author has lots of good stuff about Woodruff).

 

I noticed the horizontal accuracy this article speaks of. There were times where I remember going, yeah that missed inside corner pitch on the outer 1/3rd. Thing is, I also remembering the pitch being good enough that it often still worked. While accuracy is very important, he has enough quality in his pitches to get away with it a fair amount of the time. It's not a positive but I dont feel it's as damaging as it could be.

 

The nelson we saw last year didn't exist before last year. Hopefully woodruff can polish up the alterations he needs quicker than Jimmy.

 

Much of what the author lists as cons seems correctable with coaching. He'll definitely make mistakes with pitches that will get hit hard. He's capable of making quality pitches though and escaping jams, especially with the high GB rate. I think the author doesn't give his changeup quite as much credit as it deserves. Maybe that game agianst Miami was a bad showing, it's a decent pitch though. Much better than what Jimmy was working with when he broke in.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not me here. And that article is nitpicking pitches. That said, the article was written during last season and was about him as a streaming option during what most likely is your Fantasy Playoff stretch.

 

As a rookie with the velocity, missing by the little that the gifs shown I see as a positive. He has better control than Jimmy did coming in to the League. The Gifs of those sliders vs Realmuto are top notch sliders. As a rookie. I said it before but I will comp him to Lance Lynn with higher upside. Lynn has been worth 14.9FWar and oddly 14.9BWar in 5 full years of pitching. I have no doubt Woodruff will pitch better than a hopeful 4.5ERA and likely under 4ERA on the season. His history is keeping the Ball in the park with Groundball positives. Now, I don't see his stuff/repertoire leading to ToR but the Lynn high #3 to perfection/consistency.

I would not be surprised he led the team pitching by the season end.(hold on what?) That statement is going on Anderson regressing back to norm, Nelson's return in pitching being bad, and Davies/Chacin I feel Woodruff can beat outright. I'm really looking forward to him tossing 200-208 Innings for us probably by 2019.

[645]

The Fine line between a pitcher being undervalue and overvalued is a thin one.

 

A pitcher that can put up a good ERA and WHIP but not a great one that could put up a strike out per inning tend to be undervalued.

 

How ever they can regress and not really get good for the first 4 or 5 years and if that happens then they clearly are overvalued.

 

For Woodruff ? It's too early to say what road he's going to go down.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Seeing as Woodruff is still on preseason prospect lists, it's obviously too early to tell what sort of pitcher he'll be as a finished product in MLB - I think the combination of AAA CO Springs, the hamstring injury right in the middle of the season, and a rushed call-up to bolster a floundering rotation in early August led to his uneven 2017.

 

This is an excerpt from an article in mid-September last year:

 

"As the 2017 MLB season winds down, Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher to watch for September. He’s made four starts in the majors since early August and has performed well: 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with a 20/9 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He was particularly excellent in his last start against the Washington Nationals on September 2nd, giving up one run in seven innings on two hits and a walk while fanning eight. He goes up against the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening."

 

This was written before his last 4 starts of the season, 3 of which were poor. He eclipsed 100 pitches in that Nationals start, which was the only time that happened his entire 2017, including the minors. In fact, the last time he even got close to reaching 100 pitches in the minors was in early June, right before his initial call-up that led to his hamstring injury. He got ~4 rehab appearances in CO Springs, throwing around 50 pitches per outing, before being recalled to Milwaukee, and he instantly goes 97, 98, 81, 105 his first four starts. Then his last four go 95, 94, 92, 52...to me it seems like he may have wore down due to that injury, and the timing of when it happened forced the Brewers to throw him into the fire before he was back to a typical starter workload of ~100 pitches every 5 days.

[KeithStone53151]

Seeing as Woodruff is still on preseason prospect lists, it's obviously too early to tell what sort of pitcher he'll be as a finished product in MLB - I think the combination of AAA CO Springs, the hamstring injury right in the middle of the season, and a rushed call-up to bolster a floundering rotation in early August led to his uneven 2017.

 

This is an excerpt from an article in mid-September last year:

 

"As the 2017 MLB season winds down, Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Woodruff is a pitcher to watch for September. He’s made four starts in the majors since early August and has performed well: 1.52 ERA in 23.2 innings with a 20/9 K/BB and 17 hits allowed. He was particularly excellent in his last start against the Washington Nationals on September 2nd, giving up one run in seven innings on two hits and a walk while fanning eight. He goes up against the Pittsburgh Pirates this evening."

 

This was written before his last 4 starts of the season, 3 of which were poor. He eclipsed 100 pitches in that Nationals start, which was the only time that happened his entire 2017, including the minors. In fact, the last time he even got close to reaching 100 pitches in the minors was in early June, right before his initial call-up that led to his hamstring injury. He got ~4 rehab appearances in CO Springs, throwing around 50 pitches per outing, before being recalled to Milwaukee, and he instantly goes 97, 98, 81, 105 his first four starts. Then his last four go 95, 94, 92, 52...to me it seems like he may have wore down due to that injury, and the timing of when it happened forced the Brewers to throw him into the fire before he was back to a typical starter workload of ~100 pitches every 5 days.

 

You make a good point on that injury. Significant time off like that can impact every aspect of his pitching, including mechanics, command, and conditioning.

[Greenleaf1]

I guess I'm just hoping that Woodruff is capable of being that #3 guy in future years who can consistently give you like 180 IP and 3.75 ERA. His command was iffy at times last year, but I do think that if he makes the right adjustments and gets some more Major League experience, he's pretty likely to reach his ceiling soon and provide a steady mid-rotation arm that would help the Brewers from having to go out and pay Lance Lynn $15M/year to do that.

 

I do think he got overshadowed a bit by Hader coming up and is now being overshadowed a bit by Burnes, and those two guys may end up having better careers but that doesn't mean Woodruff can't be a huge part of our rotation for the next 5 years.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I do argree with you guys that having Woodruff MLB-ready should steer the Brewers clear of signing and overpaying a Lynn or a Cobb.

 

However, I do believe that Stearns should not hesitate to include Woodruff in a deal paired with Santana to land a cheap, controllable Top of the Rotation Arm.

 

The Brewers desperately need one if they plan on contending (especially in a division with the Cubs), and outside of signing Arrieta to a long and risky contract, I think that may be the only way Stearns will be able to do it.