FA Pitchers

[pacopete4]

Both posts above have four years involved. That’s something I don’t want to see them do and a reason I’m glad Stearns is sticking to his guns. Cobb is pretty good but I’m not sure he’s a rotation changer. Just shift the depth of our staff a bit. And this whole, he got his pitch back thing... when did that happen? Everything I’ve ever seen said he doesn’t throw the split anymore.

[TJseven7]

I meant hes a 2... with a split change back he's a 1. Not that its already happened.

 

I honestly think the 4th year fear and mere depth increase talk is delusional. 31-34 isnt even old compared to the vast majority of the FAs that hit the market. Pretty good isnt top 60 league wide. If he's pretty good well then goods not coming here for under 20-25 mil long term or half our farm being traded away.

 

Removing miley from the rotation for a floor of 3.65 era improves the 1-5s era by roughly .2 runs on the year. That's a huge bump.

[paul253]

Cobb is pretty good but I’m not sure he’s a rotation changer

 

If it pushes Miley out of the rotation then absolutely it’s a rotation changer.

[pacopete4]

Cobb is pretty good but I’m not sure he’s a rotation changer

 

If it pushes Miley out of the rotation then absolutely it’s a rotation changer.

 

Woodruff most likely would be the bumped candidate.

[paul253]

Anderson, Davies, Cobb, Chacin, Woodruff. Who am I missing?

[pacopete4]

Anderson, Davies, Cobb, Chacin, Woodruff. Who am I missing?

Miley. Miley probably pushed Woodruff from that starting five.

[paul253]

Unless Woodruff is awful this spring I don’t see that happening. Miley has been terrible the last two years. And he wasn’t very good before that. If Miley pushes Woodruff out of the rotation then Woodruff has had a bad bad spring.

 

But even so, once we have the inevitable pitcher injury your first option would then be Woodruff as opposed to, say, Gallardo or Guerra.

[brewcrewdue80]

Spring training began. You didn't accept my offer. Moving on. Don't want any of these FAs anymore. Hope all offers are pulled completely and Good luck to the team who signs these guys less than a week to begin season. First appearance on the mound in game watch them go down to a serious injury. Enjoy that investment!

 

Don't agree with this. For the most part these guys keep themselves in shape. There's an injury risk with any deal and any player. We signed a 34 year old Kyle Lohse on March 25th five years ago and we got 2 very good 200 inning seasons of 3.50 ERA type pitching.

 

Talent evaluation, negotiation, and acquisition is a year round job and you don't stop doing your due diligence while other teams continue to and miss out on potential bargain opportunities just because Spring Training has started.

 

Lohse isnt the same level as this offseason. The cost was more to acquire and he was the last FA pitcher awaiting a deal.

 

Weve been tied in some way to these guys since the winter meetings. That wasnt the case on Lohse. How many days and hours of negotiating do these guys need? Option A/Darvish Signed. That was supposed to be the domino that knocked the others down. Yet here we are none signed after that. You said it" Talent evaluation, negotiation, and acquisition" It's time to spend less time and money investing in to this dead end. Move your people on to a new project of Talent evaluation. Like whos your 25man Opening day. Who are you watching in acquiring. How many times do you need to here an offer of say 3/45 before you give up your stance on holding out for more? Either we have the best offer and you need to move on it, or its time you quit pulling our chain and take that offer thats better than ours.

 

 

To the person who said huh? Guys have been pitching since pitchers/catchers report with ST games. No one Im sure for Milwaukee will pitch more than 80 pitches their 1st time on the mound this regular season. These guys are behind the 8ball, not familar with the catchers. They'll be "in shape, ready to go" and pitch that 1st game week 1 of the season with a 60-65 pitch limit and come 5th/6th inning say they can finish the inning, or go out for another. Then its too much and 1st game injure their arm. Its like a player(Braun) coming back from injury "too soon" reinjuring it once again.

[paul253]

These guys are behind the 8ball, not familar with the catchers. They'll be "in shape, ready to go" and pitch that 1st game week 1 of the season with a 60-65 pitch limit and come 5th/6th inning say they can finish the inning, or go out for another. Then its too much and 1st game injure their arm. Its like a player(Braun) coming back from injury "too soon" reinjuring it once again.

 

These guys are professionals. They aren’t going to risk their season to pitch an extra inning in their first start of the season. Plus, if they aren’t ready they might just skip their first start and stay in extended spring training to build arm strength.

 

Plus, just because they say the can go another inning doesn’t mean the Brewers have to let them. I’m sure they’ll be more careful with their FA acquisition.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t care who Cobb pushes out of the rotation. Why? Because I am pretty confident the Brewers will take the better guy for the #5 spot. If they take Miley over Woodruff obviously Woodruff didn’t show more than Miley.

 

I think it is time to stop preaching past results to talk about what will happen in the future. Pitchers make mechanical adjustment etc. all the time.

[paul253]

I think it is time to stop preaching past results to talk about what will happen in the future. Pitchers make mechanical adjustment etc. all the time

 

So past results shouldn’t be considered when trying to determine how good a pitcher will be? I kind of understand your point but it’s foolish not to look at how good a player has been in the past. Obviously someone can make adjustments but if he’s been flat out bad for three or four years it’s likely that he’s just not that good.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

I think it is time to stop preaching past results to talk about what will happen in the future. Pitchers make mechanical adjustment etc. all the time

 

So past results shouldn’t be considered when trying to determine how good a pitcher will be? I kind of understand your point but it’s foolish not to look at how good a player has been in the past. Obviously someone can make adjustments but if he’s been flat out bad for three or four years it’s likely that he’s just not that good.

Yeah, I mean past results should almost always be the first thing to look at to judge how a guy will do moving forward (obviously outside of making sure he's healthy). But that's the starting point, good or bad of what he's done once you see what he's done that's where you look to see if he's been bad is it fixable with mechanics, sequencing, eliminating a pitch, using a pitch more, etc. if he's been good can he continue these things reasonably well as he ages, can he sustain a velo drop and still be successful or can you reasonably project his velo can stick or his movement sticks, does he do things that don't lead you to believe they are outliers/variance/etc.

 

A lot of people just get caught up in that the only thing people look at these days are stats (I will admit I do this myself) but scouting/eye test still plays a major role in MLB. It may have shifted how, when, where and why it's used but the most successful FO's use a blend of stats/analytics and scouting. Hate to use the Cubs so much as an example but look at the things their FO says, they use scouting just as much as ever it's just tailored differently now that incorporates the stats to analyze players or the stats are the starting point to go and scout a guy. Theo has ben on record saying they employ more scouts now than they had before he took over. The scout isn't a dying thing like so many people seem to think they just are being re-calibrated and FO's aren't running teams just using spreadsheets and computers with no human element.

[Boomer5]

Both posts above have four years involved. That’s something I don’t want to see them do and a reason I’m glad Stearns is sticking to his guns. Cobb is pretty good but I’m not sure he’s a rotation changer. Just shift the depth of our staff a bit. And this whole, he got his pitch back thing... when did that happen? Everything I’ve ever seen said he doesn’t throw the split anymore.

 

Excellent recap of the situation. FA has forever made average pitchers into TOR contract types.

 

Mercifully analytics has given the league the tools to avoid the Homer Bailey contracts going forward. In the case of Cobb, he is so clearly a guy you'd never give more than 3 years. Luckily the league has figured this out.

[paul253]

In the case of Cobb, he is so clearly a guy you'd never give more than 3 years. Luckily the league has figured this out

 

That’s all good and well but let’s once again look at our current alternatives. Wade Miley. Yovani Gallardo. Junior Guerra. All of them were awful last year. Two of them were awful the year before that as well. Our starting pitching depth is, quite honestly, a joke. And it’s quite possible that refusing to give Cobb an extra year may cost us playoff berth, not necessarily because he’s that good, but because the alternatives are that bad. I’m all for picking up guys on the cheap and hoping they turn it around. But when you have a legitimate chance at the playoffs, which we do because of our offense, I hate to rely so heavily on that type of player.

 

If Miley and Gallardo get a significant number of starts between the two of them this year I think it’s going to be a long year. I certainly could be wrong and hope I am. But I hate to see a season wasted because we refuse to give better pitchers an extra year or a few more million dollars. I think this offseason is more an exception than the new rule. Next offseason is going to see a ridiculous amount of spending.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

In the case of Cobb, he is so clearly a guy you'd never give more than 3 years. Luckily the league has figured this out

 

That’s all good and well but let’s once again look at our current alternatives. Wade Miley. Yovani Gallardo. Junior Guerra. All of them were awful last year. Two of them were awful the year before that as well. Our starting pitching depth is, quite honestly, a joke. And it’s quite possible that refusing to give Cobb an extra year may cost us playoff berth, not necessarily because he’s that good, but because the alternatives are that bad. I’m all for picking up guys on the cheap and hoping they turn it around. But when you have a legitimate chance at the playoffs, which we do because of our offense, I hate to rely so heavily on that type of player.

 

If Miley and Gallardo get a significant number of starts between the two of them this year I think it’s going to be a long year. I certainly could be wrong and hope I am. But I hate to see a season wasted because we refuse to give better pitchers an extra year or a few more million dollars. I think this offseason is more an exception than the new rule. Next offseason is going to see a ridiculous amount of spending.

 

I agree that this team could definitely use another upper-end starter. But the sky isn't falling, either, as you seem to be implying. And to call the starting pitching depth a joke I believe is a flat out fallacy. This team actually has a ton of starting pitching depth. it's just that none of it is what anyone would call established high-quality.

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

Suter

Guerra

Gallardo

Miley

Wilkerson

Lopez

Burnes

Peralta

Derby

Perrin

Ortiz

 

That's 15 guys who you could theoretically see start games for the team this year, and that isn't even taking into account injury-return guys like Nelson and Houser. No, depth isn't the issue. Track record and name familiarity arguably is, though. The team's starting pitching depth is actually better than its been in years. Acquiring a player like Arrieta or Cobb would definitely be a nice cherry on top, though, and would allow guys like Miley and Gallardo to go down to AAA to work out their kinks, instead of trying to work them out at the ML level.

[paul253]

But the sky isn't falling, either, as you seem to be implying

 

That’s not what I’m meaning to imply. I’m just saying the offense is built to win but I don’t believe the rotation can say the same.

 

 

That's 15 guys who you could theoretically see start games for the team this year, and that isn't even taking into account injury-return guys like Nelson and Houser

 

Come on. Just because you can name a bunch of guys who are capable of starting games and have reached AA doesn’t make them viable options. You’d really be ok with Jorge Lopez starting games right now? And you’re counting on Ortiz, Burnes and Peralta, none of whom have pitched above AA? Or Perrin, whose never pitched above A ball? That’s “depth” to you?

 

Realistically our depth is, depending on who doesn’t crack the rotation, some combination of Gallardo, Miley, Suter, Wilkerson, Guerra and maybe Derby. At this point I wouldn’t feel comfortable with any one of those guys making more than 3-4 spot starts.

[82brewcrew82]

That's 15 guys who you could theoretically see start games for the team this year, and that isn't even taking into account injury-return guys like Nelson and Houser.

Wow. I think an optimist would call that list optimistic. Every team has a bunch of names. The difference is that if the upper echelon teams sign a Wade Miley, there is zero expectation that he is anywhere near the rotation unless something went horribly wrong. We are getting giddy or a mechanical tweak with Miley as a realistic option for the opening day rotation....and if that doesn't work, we ll we have a ton of unproven minor league pitchers.

 

And they better hope regular season Chacin is much better than spring training Chacin or this whole thing is done.

[MrTPlush]

I think it is time to stop preaching past results to talk about what will happen in the future. Pitchers make mechanical adjustment etc. all the time

 

So past results shouldn’t be considered when trying to determine how good a pitcher will be? I kind of understand your point but it’s foolish not to look at how good a player has been in the past. Obviously someone can make adjustments but if he’s been flat out bad for three or four years it’s likely that he’s just not that good.

 

No, but some are acting like that is the only thing to consider. The fact the Brewers brought him in because they think they can fix him is completely being ignored. It’s not like they are just being in 2016-2017 Wade Miley and letting him compete. They believe they can get something completely different.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

That's 15 guys who you could theoretically see start games for the team this year, and that isn't even taking into account injury-return guys like Nelson and Houser.

Wow. I think an optimist would call that list optimistic. Every team has a bunch of names. The difference is that if the upper echelon teams sign a Wade Miley, there is zero expectation that he is anywhere near the rotation unless something went horribly wrong. We are getting giddy or a mechanical tweak with Miley as a realistic option for the opening day rotation....and if that doesn't work, we ll we have a ton of unproven minor league pitchers.

 

And they better hope regular season Chacin is much better than spring training Chacin or this whole thing is done.

 

I don't want to see Miley in the rotation, mechanical tweak or not. If they don't make an acquisition, I'm pulling for Woodruff and Suter to round out the rotation. I actually think Suter has a spot pretty much sewn up. So that means realistically Woodruff, Gallardo, Miley, Guerra and Wilkerson are competing for one spot. If Woodruff gets it, having vets like Miley, Guerra and Gallardo around certainly isn't a bad thing.

[82brewcrew82]

I don't want to see Miley in the rotation, mechanical tweak or not. If they don't make an acquisition, I'm pulling for Woodruff and Suter to round out the rotation. I actually think Suter has a spot pretty much sewn up. So that means realistically Woodruff, Gallardo, Miley, Guerra and Wilkerson are competing for one spot. If Woodruff gets it, having vets like Miley, Guerra and Gallardo around certainly isn't a bad thing.

I think it's a bad thing. That isn't an impressive group, even as depth. If Woodruff and Suter were the next men up behind a better starting 5 I could agree. As is, no.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think it's a bad thing. That isn't an impressive group, even as depth. If Woodruff and Suter were the next men up behind a better starting 5 I could agree. As is, no.

 

True, the last couple years don't inspire much confidence in Miley and Gallardo, but those two do have a track record of once being good starting pitchers. Perhaps they'll never find "it" again, but at least there is a history of an "it" there to potentially be found. Same thing with Guerra, who was great in 2016 but is now basically an afterthought.

 

I agree with you completely that they could use another good starting pitcher. I think our disagreement stems from me believing that the cupboard is pretty well stocked, while you believe it isn't. Fair enough. I guess my question to you, then, is what would make you happy? Cobb? Arrieta? Both?

[wallus]

It's sad to me that people are talking themselves into Gallardo and Miley being in a rotation of a team seriously trying to make the playoffs.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It's sad to me that people are talking themselves into Gallardo and Miley being in a rotation of a team seriously trying to make the playoffs.

 

Who's doing that? I want Suter and Woodruff to get the spots. I just argued that Gallardo and Miley aren't bad depth pieces to have in the system. It isn't like those two are going to be blocking anyone in Colorado Springs, either. If they rediscover what once made them good pitchers, great! If they don't, you cut bait. Both are low risk deals.

 

That said, the way Miley has pitched so far, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get a rotation spot. I would think the leash would be short with him, though. I'd much rather sink or swim with Woodruff and Suter.

[And That]

Wade Miley is a perfectly fine back-end starter on a team with playoff aspirations. His 3-year average WAR between the 3 main versions is 1.3. He's a lefty who throws 91-93 with sink who had an off year in 2017, just like basically every other starting pitcher on the team he was on did. The level of hate he gets on here is pretty bizarre.

[DR28]

It's sad to me that people are talking themselves into Gallardo and Miley being in a rotation of a team seriously trying to make the playoffs.

 

Then who should we be talking about? We havent added Arrieta or Cobb have we?