Darvish to Cubs - 6 yrs/~$126M

[bluescale]

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-postseason-self-assessment-spt-1021-20171020-story.html

 

The twitter post is apparently from today. The 2nd link includes a quote from earlier in the offseason. These 2 quotes completely contradict each other, so he is absolutely lying in one of them(or both). I thought I'd share for those who like to read into quotes from GM's, clearly they aren't worth the paper they are written on. This isn't a knock on Theo, I don't blame him one bit for lying in October or lying now(or both) as he's saying the right things and not revealing his intentions.

 

Yeah...you can't really sign a guy to a 6 year contract, and then talk about how he was choice #3. I honestly think Epstein/Hoyer wanted Darvish from the beginning (they even flew out to meet him at the beginning of the off season), but didn't think he fit in their budget. Then when Cobb said he wanted $20M a year, and Darvish's market never developed, the Cubs saw an opportunity and changed course.

[bill hAll Star]

What did Epstein say in that article that was contradictory?

[young guns]

"You don't want to make a living or habit out of trying to solve your problems with high-price pitching free agents because over the long run there's so much risk involved that you really can hamstring your organization,' Epstein said. "But we have a lot of players who have reasonable salaries who contribute an awful lot who might put us in a positon to consider it going forward and in the future.

 

"It's not our preferred method. We would prefer to make a small deal and find another Jake Arrieta, but you can't do that every year, either."

 

So basically we don't want to sign a high priced guy vs we wanted the high priced darvish all along.

[KeithStone53151]

What did Epstein say in that article that was contradictory?

 

In October he said a high priced starting pitcher wasn't their preferred method, then today he said Darvish was their primary target from day 1 of the offseason.

[bill hAll Star]

"But we have a lot of players who have reasonable salaries who contribute an awful lot who might put us in a positon to consider it going forward and in the future."

 

He said that they have such a low payroll from other guys that going after guys like Darvish some/other years is an option.

 

Sure, a contradiction that maybe they explored a trade first, so I guess I can connect that logic. But he definitely noted that they also have created a situation where they can go after bigger FAs.

[KeithStone53151]

"But we have a lot of players who have reasonable salaries who contribute an awful lot who might put us in a positon to consider it going forward and in the future."

 

He said that they have such a low payroll from other guys that going after guys like Darvish some/other years is an option.

 

Sure, a contradiction that maybe they explored a trade first, so I guess I can connect that logic. But he definitely noted that they also have created a situation where they can go after bigger FAs.

 

My goal wasn't this "gotcha" moment to make Theo look bad. Moreso to point out that you can't take what a GM says publicly about their offseason strategy as fact. Slide that logic over to Stearns, him saying we are going to spring with the starters we have is probably misdirection to some degree. We'll add someone. Suter won't be the 5th starter to open the season barring injury or Woodruff being dreadful in ST.

[DaSpark]

While this helps the Cubs, I think those that are saying that we might as well pack up our ball and go home are overreacting a bit. Everyone knew the Cubs were going to add pitching, and Epstein said early in the offseason that paying for one of Arrieta/Darvish wouldn't be their first choice. Considering what FAs got in recent years, they got him for a decent price, but they still committed $126M+ over the next 6 years to a 31-year old.

 

They got their starter and they're a good team. We added a lot of talent and are still very likely going to add one more starter before the season starts. With another starter, we can start looking at the Brewers as a "good team." The Cubs are probably better "on paper" going into the season, but that doesn't mean they're going to run away with the title, especially considering that they have nothing in the minors to help them out in case of injury or to use as trade bait for a mid-season upgrade. When one of our starters goes down, we have a stable-full of young guys to step in. When their starters hit the DL, they start asking fans in the stands if they can throw a couple of innings.

 

Sure the Cubs are the favorites, but I'm still looking forward to see who we add to shore up our rotation and for the season to start to see how good our team can be. I'm sure not writing off the 2018 Brewers' playoff chances before the season starts just because the Cubs signed a starter when we all knew they were going to sign someone.

 

Sure, key injuries here or there can be a huge blow to any team. However, it's not a fun place to be to have to almost hope your opposition has injuries so you even stand a chance. Plus, odds are the Cubs would win the division even if they lost a starter for a good portion of the year.

 

Brewers have a good shot at the wildcard race again. Unless the Cubs have a below average first half again, like last year, the division will not be competitive.

 

PS.... honestly the cubs only added Yu to help out in their chances of advancing in the playoff. They did not sign him in hopes of actually making the playoffs which were already a guarantee.

[bill hAll Star]

"But we have a lot of players who have reasonable salaries who contribute an awful lot who might put us in a positon to consider it going forward and in the future."

 

He said that they have such a low payroll from other guys that going after guys like Darvish some/other years is an option.

 

Sure, a contradiction that maybe they explored a trade first, so I guess I can connect that logic. But he definitely noted that they also have created a situation where they can go after bigger FAs.

 

My goal wasn't this "gotcha" moment to make Theo look bad. Moreso to point out that you can't take what a GM says publicly about their offseason strategy as fact. Slide that logic over to Stearns, him saying we are going to spring with the starters we have is probably misdirection to some degree. We'll add someone. Suter won't be the 5th starter to open the season barring injury or Woodruff being dreadful in ST.

 

Got it...yes, I agree.

[brewcrewdue80]

Or, maybe it was, The Brewers added bats atop their lineup and rumored to be best offer to Darvish who would immediately put them scary contenders to their "dynasty roster" So guess what, I targeted him from day 1, this wasn't a direct move to our biggest rival coming in to the season who would make us look bad I mean Me in a span of 2 seasons.

[monty57]

While this helps the Cubs, I think those that are saying that we might as well pack up our ball and go home are overreacting a bit. Everyone knew the Cubs were going to add pitching, and Epstein said early in the offseason that paying for one of Arrieta/Darvish wouldn't be their first choice. Considering what FAs got in recent years, they got him for a decent price, but they still committed $126M+ over the next 6 years to a 31-year old.

 

They got their starter and they're a good team. We added a lot of talent and are still very likely going to add one more starter before the season starts. With another starter, we can start looking at the Brewers as a "good team." The Cubs are probably better "on paper" going into the season, but that doesn't mean they're going to run away with the title, especially considering that they have nothing in the minors to help them out in case of injury or to use as trade bait for a mid-season upgrade. When one of our starters goes down, we have a stable-full of young guys to step in. When their starters hit the DL, they start asking fans in the stands if they can throw a couple of innings.

 

Sure the Cubs are the favorites, but I'm still looking forward to see who we add to shore up our rotation and for the season to start to see how good our team can be. I'm sure not writing off the 2018 Brewers' playoff chances before the season starts just because the Cubs signed a starter when we all knew they were going to sign someone.

 

Sure, key injuries here or there can be a huge blow to any team. However, it's not a fun place to be to have to almost hope your opposition has injuries so you even stand a chance. Plus, odds are the Cubs would win the division even if they lost a starter for a good portion of the year.

 

Brewers have a good shot at the wildcard race again. Unless the Cubs have a below average first half again, like last year, the division will not be competitive.

 

PS.... honestly the cubs only added Yu to help out in their chances of advancing in the playoff. They did not sign him in hopes of actually making the playoffs which were already a guarantee.

 

The Brewers weren't supposed to be a playoff contender this quickly. They should still be in their rebuilding years. Meanwhile the Cubs are in the middle of their "window" that was opened after a long, painful rebuild and during which they have traded away most of their future to win another ring before everything comes crashing down.

 

I think where we are is a very fun place to be. We didn't have to suffer a long, painful rebuild. We didn't have to lose 100 games multiple years in a row to get top draft picks. Yet here we are, right in the middle of the conversation of how we can position ourselves for a good shot at the playoffs. We have a playoff capable roster that is pretty much locked in place for several years, and we have flexibility to make moves that hopefully will make us even better.

 

I'm very excited to see how the season plays out, and I'm certainly not going to write off the season just because "on paper" the Cubs are expected to be the best team in the division.

[DaSpark]

I just don't share the optimism for this year in regards to the division. I also don't think the Cubs are in a small window of success. I see them probably winning the division without doubt for at least 5 or more years. Then again, we'll see.

[DHonks]

At some point the Cubs' model of buying a rotation rather than developing one, and having a so-so bullpen will catch up to them.

[monty57]

I just don't share the optimism for this year in regards to the division. I also don't think the Cubs are in a small window of success. I see them probably winning the division without doubt for at least 5 or more years. Then again, we'll see.

 

To the first sentence, we missed the playoffs by one game last year and have made moves to make us better this year. We added two of the best all-around players in baseball in Yelich and Cain, and I expect we'll still add a quality starter to shore up our rotation. Why would you not be at least somewhat optimistic, especially considering that at this time last year most people didn't think we'd be close to a playoff team for at least a few seasons.

 

To the second part, the Cubs built themselves up from the farm. By next year, Happ will be the only pre-arby guy left on the roster, and they have traded away every useful prospect they had. With the stricter luxury tax, as the arby salaries rise they will be limited in how much they can spend to improve and they don't have any more players on the farm to trade for MLB help. They are built around Bryant and Rizzo, and they both have four years of control remaining. The Cubs still have a few years left where they should be the team to beat in the central, but they have absolutely went "all in." With that, they are paper-thin depth wise, and that will cost them as the inevitable injuries pop up.

 

"On paper," we're still behind them but we're catching up. We still have some moves to make before the season starts, and once the games begin anything can happen. We have a good shot at being a playoff team this year, so I am very excited for this season to start.

[tigerbrew]

Last year our offense was a bigger problem than our pitching, Stearns solution was the addition of Yelich and Cain. The bullpen is pretty good, I think Stearns focus now is on improving the starting pitching. It's still 6 weeks away till season starts, let's wait and see what's Stearns solution is for SP.

[KeithStone53151]

If we add Cobb, we will probably be slightly behind the Cubs at every notch. Their SP best to worst is probably Darvish, Quintana, Hendricks, Lester, Chatwood(you can swap lester/hendricks if you want). Ours with Cobb would probably be Anderson, Cobb, Davies, Woodruff, Chacin(you can swap Cobb/Anderson or Woodruff/Chacin). I think it's pretty clear that they are at least slightly better at most rungs. Anderson/Cobb probably have the upside to compete with Darvish/Quintana if Anderson's mechanical adjustments/velocity from last year return, and Cobb if he finds that split changeup. Most likely outcome is Cubs guys are better. Davies posted a 2.8 ERA in the 2nd half last year, I would argue he's probably about the equivalent of Hendricks...with Hendricks having significantly more risk becuse if he loses any more velocity he won't be a capable pitcher. This is MLB level and he was mid 80s last year, if he's low 80s he's gonna get shelled I don't care how good his command is...heck he might if he's mid 80s again. Lester/Woodruff is pure upside vs downside, Lester projects much better if he doesnt regress. Woodruff projects much worse but could improve...still advantage Cubs. The 5s are probably a wash, who cares really.

 

Cubs bullpen is much deeper to a point, but we have the best 2 pitchers of our combined bullpens(Knebel/Hader) but they are probably equal or better at every rung past the top 2. Also I get they have 7-8 very solid bullpen pitchers, but if one gets hurt what do they do? Bring up a prospect? LOL. I suppose there will probably be mediocre free agents available, if they were smart they'd try to find some decent bullpen depth options that will accept AAA assignments.

 

One general note on pitching is that the Brewers will have a significantly improved outfield defense this year. Cain/Yelich are GG defenders, and if we trade Santana and roll Phillips in RF a significant amount of the time...we might have the best outfield defense in baseball...which will help our pitching.

 

Offense is hard to judge at this point. Theirs will be good, it's tough to judge how we'll match up without knowing who's sticking around. I still think we add someone at 2b, which would help us measure up to the Cubs. It will be important to give guys like Shaw and Braun more rest during the season as they clearly wore out down the stretch(Shaw was a 700 OPS guy the last 2 months after being more of a 900 OPS guy the first 4). I'm curious to see how Thames does with a year of scouting available. It seemed like after his big April, teams adjusted to him, and then around August he made adjustments and put up very strong September numbers.