Darvish to Cubs - 6 yrs/~$126M

[brewcrewdue80]

Just throwing this out there

 

2018 ZiPS Darvish:3.22 FIP

2018 ZiPS Archer: 3.10 FIP

 

2018 STEAMER Darvish: 3.70 FIP

2018 STEAMER Archer: 3.48 FIP

 

My prediction Actual ERA

 

Darvish 3.10

Archer 4.20

 

There goes the strikeout effects vs the Hard hit ignore.

[SRB]

(Sorry for multiple posts)

 

Why does everyone think Arrieta will have to settle for a worse contract than Darvish?

 

Granted Darvish had a slightly better 2017 season, especially after getting traded, but from 2014-2017:

 

Arrieta: 119 GS, 751 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 18.5 fWAR

 

Darvish: 70 GS, 431 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 10.0 fWAR

 

Darvish is only five months younger, has been far less durable, and a worse pitcher.

[NOMAAM]

(Sorry for multiple posts)

 

Why does everyone think Arrieta will have to settle for a worse contract than Darvish?

 

Granted Darvish had a slightly better 2017 season, especially after getting traded, but from 2014-2017:

 

Arrieta: 119 GS, 751 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 18.5 fWAR

 

Darvish: 70 GS, 431 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 10.0 fWAR

 

Darvish is only five months younger, has been far less durable, and a worse pitcher.

 

Draft pick, perceived decline in stuff, injury worry, etc etc.

[SRB]

Draft pick, perceived decline in stuff, injury worry, etc etc.

 

How is he a bigger injury worry than Darvish, who has frequently been injured over the last few years??

 

Arrieta's K/9 actually went up and BB/9 went down last season, even though he had a mediocre (for him) year by FIP. But still, he had a 4.16 FIP to Darvish's 3.83 FIP.

 

Particularly given that his agent is Boras, I actually expect Arrieta will get a bigger contract (and very likely will be a better pitcher over the next half decade). Not that I want the Brewers to sign him necessarily. We can't eat bad contracts like the Cubs can, so none of these nine figure commitments would be wise.

 

I suspect Darvish's agent is better or more interested in manipulating the media into making Darvish the clear headline free agent this offseason.

[Lathund]

The worry with Arrieta is that the stats are all trending in the wrong direction, along with the velocity.

 

IP: 229 -> 197 -> 168

ERA: 1.77 -> 3.10 -> 3.53

FIP: 2.35 -> 3.52 -> 4.16

WHIP: 0.87 -> 1.08 -> 1.22

 

The good years were also reliant on a very low BABIP (0.240ish), and how sustainable is that really?

 

Now of course it could be that 2017 is the outlier, but handing out $100m in the hope that things aren't going to continue to regress is scary with a budget like ours. Also the fact that the Cubs seemingly weren't interested in retaining Arrieta is a huge red flag as well.

 

EDIT: Also noticed the wild pitches; never had more than 8 in a season before, and then a league-leading 16 and 14 in the last two. Not sure it really means anything, but found it rather curious.

[MVP2110]

The worry with Arrieta is that the stats are all trending in the wrong direction, along with the velocity.

 

IP: 229 -> 197 -> 168

ERA: 1.77 -> 3.10 -> 3.53

FIP: 2.35 -> 3.52 -> 4.16

WHIP: 0.87 -> 1.08 -> 1.22

 

The good years were also reliant on a very low BABIP (0.240ish), and how sustainable is that really?

 

Now of course it could be that 2017 is the outlier, but handing out $100m in the hope that things aren't going to continue to regress is scary with a budget like ours. Also the fact that the Cubs seemingly weren't interested in retaining Arrieta is a huge red flag as well.

 

Could just be that the Cubs want the pick that they will be getting for Arrieta to replenish their Farm System

[KeithStone53151]

How does that impact them in the Harper derby next year?

 

Don't forget, it's every players dream to take a huge discount in pay to play for the beloved Cubbies...according to the delusions of Cubs fans.

 

Back to reality, their chances of signing Harper are virtually zero. Much more likely that Boston, LA, or SF gets him. NY has their corners well covered, will be more apt to target machado/donaldson/kershaw.

[LouisEly]

Read somewhere that the Dodgers' offer was contingent on moving other salary. Following the bread crumbs... it seems like Darvish really wanted to go to LA, LA had to move salary but couldn't, Darvish kept holding out hoping Dodgers could move salary and either got sick of waiting or Cubs gave him ultimatum. Guessing Brewers offer was somewhere around 5/$100M-$110M.

[mtrebs]

I’ve seen lots of comments against the 6 year contract, but does that really matter? It’s the $126M that matters. The rumors I heard had more than that for 5 years, so that’s like an extra year for free.

[KeithStone53151]

I’ve seen lots of comments against the 6 year contract, but does that really matter? It’s the $126M that matters. The rumors I heard had more than that for 5 years, so that’s like an extra year for free.

 

Well you have a 35 and 36 year old pitcher getting starts in the back end of the deal for 21 million per year, that matters.

[SRB]

I’ve seen lots of comments against the 6 year contract, but does that really matter? It’s the $126M that matters. The rumors I heard had more than that for 5 years, so that’s like an extra year for free.

 

It matters to the extent that there is reportedly an opt-out after a couple seasons, so the Cubs are taking on more back-end risk if Darvish gets injured or becomes terrible before the opt out.

[Eye Black]

I’ve seen lots of comments against the 6 year contract, but does that really matter? It’s the $126M that matters. The rumors I heard had more than that for 5 years, so that’s like an extra year for free.

No, IMO all the 6th year does is lower the AAV against the luxury tax. I never thought he would get anything less than $125 million, I just thought it would be for five years. I was really hoping the Cubs would be on the hook for a higher AAV if they landed Darvish, I think they did a nice job to keep the annual commitment down.

 

Still waiting until we get details on the opt out clause, that is something he had reportedly been looking for, and something I thought the Brewers might get creative in offering.

 

McCalvy pointed out that the Cubs beat out the Brewers on both Quintana and Darvish over the past half year. I don’t doubt the Brewers are serious about adding a difference maker to their rotation, I just don’t see that difference maker being available via free agency with Darvish now off the board. The sky isn’t falling by any means, but this also reinforces that the Brewers aren’t likely to assemble a roster that can compete with the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals in the NL this year.

[pacopete4]

Is it wrong to hope Darvish blows out his arm in Spring Training? I mean, he’s got $120 million to go live just fine.

[Montezuma]

Their is zero way I give any pitcher a 6 year contract for a pitcher who is 31 years old.

[mtrebs]

Their is zero way I give any pitcher a 6 year contract for a pitcher who is 31 years old.

 

But would you give a 5-year contract? With the total amount being less than expected for 5 years, the 6th year shouldn’t matter.

[TURBO]

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports Yu Darvish can opt out after the second year of his agreed-upon, six-year deal with the Cubs.

 

In his six-year, $126 million deal from the Cubs, Darvish likely got less than he was originally aiming for, so the opt-out will give him an option to test the waters in a few years to see if they're any more friendly. His performance at the end of last season likely contributed to those icy waters, so two years of strong performance would help, too. With Darvish off the market, perhaps we start to see some other free agent starter dominoes fall, too.

 

Source: Jeff Passan on TwitterFeb 10 - 7:02 PM

[adambr2]

Their is zero way I give any pitcher a 6 year contract for a pitcher who is 31 years old.

 

But would you give a 5-year contract? With the total amount being less than expected for 5 years, the 6th year shouldn’t matter.

 

Yeah I mean he could have gotten 5/125 and no one would have batted an eye. 6/126 is obviously better for the team. Same argument people were making against Cain's 5th year when he could have gotten 4/80 and it would have not surprised many.

[clancyphile]

I’ve seen lots of comments against the 6 year contract, but does that really matter? It’s the $126M that matters. The rumors I heard had more than that for 5 years, so that’s like an extra year for free.

No, IMO all the 6th year does is lower the AAV against the luxury tax. I never thought he would get anything less than $125 million, I just thought it would be for five years. I was really hoping the Cubs would be on the hook for a higher AAV if they landed Darvish, I think they did a nice job to keep the annual commitment down.

 

Still waiting until we get details on the opt out clause, that is something he had reportedly been looking for, and something I thought the Brewers might get creative in offering.

 

McCalvy pointed out that the Cubs beat out the Brewers on both Quintana and Darvish over the past half year. I don’t doubt the Brewers are serious about adding a difference maker to their rotation, I just don’t see that difference maker being available via free agency with Darvish now off the board. The sky isn’t falling by any means, but this also reinforces that the Brewers aren’t likely to assemble a roster that can compete with the Cubs, Dodgers, and Nationals in the NL this year.

 

Or they think that the difference makers are already in the system or can emerge from the roster.

 

Davies is 24. He's being talked about as a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com.

Woodruff is 24, and did reasonably well - he was sub-4.00 ERA until his last start of 2017 against Cincy.

Suter posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.286 WHIP.

Corbin Burnes has been dominating in the minors.

Luis Ortiz is still in the system

Bubba Derby had a 3.55 ERA in 12 starts with Colorado Springs

Angel Ventura had a 4.06 ERA over 14 games (13 starts).

 

With the exception of Suter, all were 24 or younger in 2017. All AA or higher at some point.

[Thurston Fluff]

Darvish was probably the best bet to be a legit top of the rotation guy and I wouldn't have minded the Brewers signing him. That said I am not all that sold on him as an ace for the next four years, let alone six. Arieta even less so. At this point if they go after a FA I would look at Lynn if we can get him for three, preferably less, years. How much per year would be less important. I would prefer to go with what we have and see where it takes us though. Maybe we don't have the best pitchers but we have a lot of capable ones. Counsell seems suited to that sort of group so let them play and see what happens.

[brewcrewdue80]

(Sorry for multiple posts)

 

Why does everyone think Arrieta will have to settle for a worse contract than Darvish?

 

Granted Darvish had a slightly better 2017 season, especially after getting traded, but from 2014-2017:

 

Arrieta: 119 GS, 751 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 18.5 fWAR

 

Darvish: 70 GS, 431 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 10.0 fWAR

 

Darvish is only five months younger, has been far less durable, and a worse pitcher.

 

Well first two years in that 4 are his cy young quality. The last two havent. Put the last two side by side and compare. Noted before his velocity WP. Ive said at least two times, but his #2 pitch went from reliably elite to barely average ML pitch. Theres nothing moving forward that would suggest he'll ever reach 14&15. Darvish pitched in AL and a lot more consistently. If youre going to commit 5years one is good with consistency, the other has been wild turned Ace back to wild and less velocity.

In any heads up game its a wash. But taking your 4years FWar value it is likely Darvish is 18 and Arrieta is 10 moving forward.

[Thurston Fluff]

Their is zero way I give any pitcher a 6 year contract for a pitcher who is 31 years old.

 

But would you give a 5-year contract? With the total amount being less than expected for 5 years, the 6th year shouldn’t matter.

 

Yeah I mean he could have gotten 5/125 and no one would have batted an eye. 6/126 is obviously better for the team. Same argument people were making against Cain's 5th year when he could have gotten 4/80 and it would have not surprised many.

 

The problem with that thinking is it borrows from one year to pay for another. If in four years he's paid more than he's worth it hurts that team. The fact he was worth more a couple years ago doesn't change that. To be a perennial contender we cannot do that sort of thing. The Cubs may be able to do that but no way is it right for us. The only way I'd pay that much is to frontload it so the overpay comes in a year where we could afford it.

[rickh150]

Glad we don't have him....

He didn't seem too interested in being with a mere, small market team.

If he got $21 mil for 6 years, I would think 5 years at 95 mil would get Arietta.

[SRB]

(Sorry for multiple posts)

 

Why does everyone think Arrieta will have to settle for a worse contract than Darvish?

 

Granted Darvish had a slightly better 2017 season, especially after getting traded, but from 2014-2017:

 

Arrieta: 119 GS, 751 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 18.5 fWAR

 

Darvish: 70 GS, 431 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 10.0 fWAR

 

Darvish is only five months younger, has been far less durable, and a worse pitcher.

 

Well first two years in that 4 are his cy young quality. The last two havent. Put the last two side by side and compare. Noted before his velocity WP. Ive said at least two times, but his #2 pitch went from reliably elite to barely average ML pitch. Theres nothing moving forward that would suggest he'll ever reach 14&15. Darvish pitched in AL and a lot more consistently. If youre going to commit 5years one is good with consistency, the other has been wild turned Ace back to wild and less velocity.

In any heads up game its a wash. But taking your 4years FWar value it is likely Darvish is 18 and Arrieta is 10 moving forward.

 

Darvish is going to set new career bests in his mid-30s?

 

I agree with your other points, I don't think Arrieta is perfect, but if he didn't have those question marks and remained a shutdown ace in 2016-2017 he would be looking at a deal over $200M right now.

[badwolf1981]

Cubs had no choice but overpay for Darvish's services... We are now able to concentrate on other pitchers verses waiting. The key is OVER PAY

 

Here's the kicker, it's not an overpay. Darvish will be making about 1.5--roughly---less than Mad Max and he'll make similar money to Homer Bailey, James Shields (Shields/Bailey, wanna take overpay?) and Jonny Cueto. And he'll be making around a million to million five more than Wainwright and Strasburg. (Darvish was looking for 6/175 to begin the off-season.)

 

Overpay? It's closer to being a steal than an overpay. Throw in the opt-out, and it's a clear steal.

 

The Cubs did not react to the Brewers Cain/Yelich moves, so the Brewers cannot knee jerk react to the Darvish move.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well 70gs isn't good for 4years. Get him above 100 pitching in NL and Im putting it that hell be closer to that 18 with his consistency than Arrieta going the wrong way in stats.quote="SRB"]

(Sorry for multiple posts)

 

Why does everyone think Arrieta will have to settle for a worse contract than Darvish?

 

Granted Darvish had a slightly better 2017 season, especially after getting traded, but from 2014-2017:

 

Arrieta: 119 GS, 751 IP, 2.67 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 3.25 xFIP, 18.5 fWAR

 

Darvish: 70 GS, 431 IP, 3.48 ERA, 3.33 FIP, 3.31 xFIP, 10.0 fWAR

 

Darvish is only five months younger, has been far less durable, and a worse pitcher.

Well first two years in that 4 are his cy young quality. The last two havent. Put the last two side by side and compare. Noted before his velocity WP. Ive said at least two times, but his #2 pitch went from reliably elite to barely average ML pitch. Theres nothing moving forward that would suggest he'll ever reach 14&15. Darvish pitched in AL and a lot more consistently. If youre going to commit 5years one is good with consistency, the other has been wild turned Ace back to wild and less velocity.

In any heads up game its a wash. But taking your 4years FWar value it is likely Darvish is 18 and Arrieta is 10 moving forward.

 

Darvish is going to set new career bests in his mid-30s?

 

I agree with your other points, I don't think Arrieta is perfect, but if he didn't have those question marks and remained a shutdown ace in 2016-2017 he would be looking at a deal over $200M right now.