Darvish to Cubs - 6 yrs/~$126M

[Point Beer Is Best]

If we assume that Darvish will set the market (all signs have been pointing that way), suddenly the other pitchers become more affordable that was previously thought. What's Jake Arrieta's ceiling now? It can't be more than a deal with an AAV over $20M. Lynn/Cobb will be in the upper teens.

[JCREW]

If we assume that Darvish will set the market (all signs have been pointing that way), suddenly the other pitchers become more affordable that was previously thought. What's Jake Arrieta's ceiling now? It can't be more than a deal with an AAV over $20M. Lynn/Cobb will be in the upper teens.

 

I'd bet on lower teens for Lynn and Cobb.

[brewcrewdue80]

Its like Darvish said sign the 5/126 more than the Brewers offer and Ill giveyou the 6th year free. Id have ponied 135 for 6years and not blinked an eye. We offered Grienke 5/100 how many years ago? I legit thought it was going to 135-160mil to sign him gguaranteed not incentives.

 

Want Lynn's first ask a 5/110? I mean hes gotta be at 5/70 max if compared to what Darvish just got AAV.

[Eye Black]

I know there is hope that the Darvish signing will unblock the free market, but something tells me Scott Boras is going to be very unhappy with the seemingly team friendly terms of this Darvish deal. Do you think he is more likely to now settle for less, or push back against market forces?

[Eye Black]

The Cubs owe Jason Hayward $134 million over the next 6 seasons, or in other words a higher AAV than it just took them to sign the best pitcher on the market.

[narwhalattack]

I know there is hope that the Darvish signing will unblock the free market, but something tells me Scott Boras is going to be very unhappy with the seemingly team friendly terms of this Darvish deal. Do you think he is more likely to now settle for less, or push back against market forces?

 

I’m gonna guess the latter. He doesn’t seem like the kind of guy to settle for less.

[Montezuma]

I agree and this is not a big blow.

[McRibMcLove]

Do you think he is more likely to now settle for less, or push back against market forces?

I am sure Boras will tell his players to hold, but what is the market for Arrieta? Brewers, Twins, and ? Arrieta has a better chance waiting for the first week or 2 of spring training and see if a big market team loses a pitcher to a significant injury then Boras can swoop in. I think chances of most, if not all, of Boras clients not going signed into spring training just went up. $100M contract on the table or holding out for better is a big risk to take for any player.

 

p.s. how do I get the username whom I am quoting added to the quote? Tx. Newby.

[superfly]

Anything that makes the Cubs stronger, is bad for us. Yes, this may be horrible for them in years 4, 5, and 6, but now our chances of winning the division in 2018 just blew up in our faces. The Cubs got better, and we still do not have a pitching staff to send us to the next level. Being left with Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb isn't going to cut it. Glad we didn't pay the price it took to get Darvish, but there is no silver lining in this for us and our new WIN NOW strategy.

 

I might give you Yelich but Cain is 32. His 5 years of control is more like 3 because he's going to decline throughout the contract.

 

You don't know that, it's speculation. Tom Brady was supposed to decline about 4 years ago, wasn't he? What about the 45 year old Olympic ski jumper I watched this morning? Sure skills will likely slow down as one ages but Cain is not a Gomez type that abuses himself. TVM for the first three years may outweigh the slight overpay in the last year or two.

[TURBO]

Do you think he is more likely to now settle for less, or push back against market forces?

I am sure Boras will tell his players to hold, but what is the market for Arrieta? Brewers, Twins, and ? Arrieta has a better chance waiting for the first week or 2 of spring training and see if a big market team loses a pitcher to a significant injury then Boras can swoop in. I think chances of most, if not all, of Boras clients not going signed into spring training just went up. $100M contract on the table or holding out for better is a big risk to take for any player.

 

p.s. how do I get the username whom I am quoting added to the quote? Tx. Newby.

 

The Dodgers could easily switch to Arrieta, since they were in on Darvish up until the last second he signed with the Cubs. If the Dodgers are in on Arrieta, doubtful we will get him either...

 

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Dodgers were in the bidding on Yu Darvish right until he decided to sign with the Cubs.

 

That could mean that the Dodgers will still be in the market for pitching help and will turn to one of the lesser names available on the free agent market.

 

Source: Jon Heyman on TwitterFeb 10 - 3:10 PM

[trwi7]

You don't know that, it's speculation. Tom Brady was supposed to decline about 4 years ago, wasn't he? What about the 45 year old Olympic ski jumper I watched this morning? Sure skills will likely slow down as one ages but Cain is not a Gomez type that abuses himself. TVM for the first three years may outweigh the slight overpay in the last year or two.

 

I know that age catches every professional athlete and Tom Brady is a statue that only has to throw. Cain relies on his speed to be a productive player. So your Brady comparison makes no sense. I'm not even going to get into a ski jumper who literally has to just bend at the knees and fly off a ramp. Again, not at all comparable.

[Eye Black]

ALL- Posts that include personal attacks are going to be deleted. Lets stick to arguing topics, ideas, strategies, etc., without turning things personal.

[McRibMcLove]

Do you think he is more likely to now settle for less, or push back against market forces?

I am sure Boras will tell his players to hold, but what is the market for Arrieta? Brewers, Twins, and ? Arrieta has a better chance waiting for the first week or 2 of spring training and see if a big market team loses a pitcher to a significant injury then Boras can swoop in. I think chances of most, if not all, of Boras clients not going signed into spring training just went up. $100M contract on the table or holding out for better is a big risk to take for any player.

 

 

The Dodgers could easily switch to Arrieta, since they were in on Darvish up until the last second he signed with the Cubs. If the Dodgers are in on Arrieta, doubtful we will get him either...

 

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the Dodgers were in the bidding on Yu Darvish right until he decided to sign with the Cubs.

 

That could mean that the Dodgers will still be in the market for pitching help and will turn to one of the lesser names available on the free agent market.

 

Source: Jon Heyman on TwitterFeb 10 - 3:10 PM

Darvish was openly begging the Dodgers to enter the bidding as he wanted to land on the West coast. The fact he signed with the Cubs means the Dodgers just folded at the last call because they probably were not willing to budge from 5/$100M. I just don't see the Friedman run Dodgers being interested in Arrieta, but thats just my 2C.

[NOMAAM]

I think Cobb will be the next to sign of the SP market just a hunch.

[NievesNoNO]

Well that sucks. Doesn't really seem like an overpay either. I think the others should fall in line fairly quickly now. Not really sure I want the Brewers in on any of Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb. I never really expected Darvish but the price turned out to be reasonable. He was the only real difference maker, imo.

[monty57]

Do you think he is more likely to now settle for less, or push back against market forces?

I am sure Boras will tell his players to hold, but what is the market for Arrieta? Brewers, Twins, and ? Arrieta has a better chance waiting for the first week or 2 of spring training and see if a big market team loses a pitcher to a significant injury then Boras can swoop in. I think chances of most, if not all, of Boras clients not going signed into spring training just went up. $100M contract on the table or holding out for better is a big risk to take for any player.

 

p.s. how do I get the username whom I am quoting added to the quote? Tx. Newby.

 

Just click the "quote" button in the bottom right instead of the "reply" button. That, or (in brackets) type quote="username being quoted" before the quote and (in brackets) /quote at the end.

[Eye Black]

Well that sucks. Doesn't really seem like an overpay either. I think the others should fall in line fairly quickly now. Not really sure I want the Brewers in on any of Arrieta, Lynn, or Cobb. I never really expected Darvish but the price turned out to be reasonable. He was the only real difference maker, imo.

If the Brewers are truly looking to make moves in the interest of viability for success over the next five years, I do not think signing any of those guys would be a good move either. I was of the same mindset in terms of “Darvish or bust” when it came to adding a difference maker starter via free agency this off-season. At this point, I would rather they just saved the money and evaluated their internal options for now, while looking to make a trade at some point when the value seems right.

[Lathund]

I would imagine the deal will end up a lot closer to $150m than $126m even with no Cy Youngs; it's likely based on innings pitched, so a reasonably healthy Darvish will collect most of that money. Obviously speculation on my part, but I don't see why he'd sign that type of deal if the incentives were unlikely to be reached. So perhaps look at it more like 6/$135m at the very least.

 

As for my initial reaction to this: As much as I like Darvish, this is more than I'd be comfortable with, unless Attanasio would be willing to increase the payroll past $130m. But my opinion on this hinges on what we do instead. Darvish was the only FA pitcher I felt like offering this kind of deal too, as he's the only one of the big FA pitchers I could see living up to that kind of deal. Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb are all good pitchers, but shouldn't be paid that kind of money. For Tyler Chatwood type money (3/$39m) I'd be fine with them, but it's gonna be a lot more than that. I mean I'm fairly confident Stearns doesn't do hasty reactive moves regardless so I'm not too worried, but overpaying on one of those three or paying the asking price for Archer would be a big mistake. Cubs clearly went all on on the next 2-3 years, and no moves we make at this point can make us the 2018 favourites for the NLC. So let's make the moves to improve the rotation that gets us the Wild Card, and also sets us up well for 2019 onwards, when the Cubs will be weaker.

[monty57]

As to the Darvish signing, it obviously makes it tougher for the Brewers to win the Central, but it should make it tough for the Cubs to spend much (beyond arby raises) over the next few years without going over the luxury tax.

 

They'll be tough, but they don't have much "injury insurance" in the minors. A couple injuries could really derail them.

 

The Brewers still have to worry about what the Brewers are doing, not what other teams are doing. We should have another SP in the next few days, and with that we'll have a solid team. After that, let the games begin.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I would imagine the deal will end up a lot closer to $150m than $126m even with no Cy Youngs; it's likely based on innings pitched, so a reasonably healthy Darvish will collect most of that money. Obviously speculation on my part, but I don't see why he'd sign that type of deal if the incentives were unlikely to be reached. So perhaps look at it more like 6/$135m at the very least.

 

 

Per an earlier post referencing Rosenthal, the incentives are likely to be unreached. They require him to win multiple Cy Youngs to reach the $150M. It will be a lot closer to $126M than $150M, if he doesn't opt out before then.

[Lathund]

I would imagine the deal will end up a lot closer to $150m than $126m even with no Cy Youngs; it's likely based on innings pitched, so a reasonably healthy Darvish will collect most of that money. Obviously speculation on my part, but I don't see why he'd sign that type of deal if the incentives were unlikely to be reached. So perhaps look at it more like 6/$135m at the very least.

 

 

Per an earlier post referencing Rosenthal, the incentives are likely to be unreached. They require him to win multiple Cy Youngs to reach the $150M. It will be a lot closer to $126M than $150M, if he doesn't opt out before then.

 

I saw that, hence making the post as all the discussion I've seen treats this as $126m only. But all Rosenthal said was says it's unlikely to reach $150m. Which could mean that with no Cy Youngs it's anything from $126m to like $145m. But it's not going to be $126m with $4m per potential Cy Young award. We'll see when the actual numbers come out, but I can't see the Cy Young awards being the majority of the incentives, or even close to it.

[splitterpfj]

I’m sorry the Brewers didn’t get Darvish, but not sorry they didn’t sign Darvish for six years.

 

In the end, it’s not about Darvish for me, it’s about improving the rotation from where it currently is - whether by trade or free agency, I just want an obvious upgrade.

[SRB]

Gross.

 

Anyways, imo this moves actually makes it less likely that the Brewers add a SP before the season. The Yelich and Cain moves were meant to create a competitive window for 1-5 years from now. Stearns is not going to overpay in prospects or commit to an albatross contract to compete in 2018 if the Cubs are more clearly the NL Central favorites.

[SRB]

Just throwing this out there

 

2018 ZiPS Darvish:3.22 FIP

2018 ZiPS Archer: 3.10 FIP

 

2018 STEAMER Darvish: 3.70 FIP

2018 STEAMER Archer: 3.48 FIP

[Eye Black]

Has anyone seen anything definitive about Darvish’s opt out? Sounds as though it is likely after the second year of the deal?