In Defense of Not Signing An Expensive Pitcher

[Mr Southpaw]

If we let things be our starting rotation in 2020 will be...

 

Nelson

Anderson

Davies

Burnes

Woodruff

 

With all of them improving just a little, that will be an impressive rotation.

 

2021 looks like this if we cannot resign Nelson and Anderson (But then we would probably get draft picks back for them)

 

Davies

Burnes

Woodruff

Ortiz

Medeiros/Supak/Peralta/Diplan/Derby

 

I love that depth and it is the way to stay competitive with the big spenders.

[Mr Southpaw]

I don't get the non like for suter......I will take a guy that loves to compete everyday of the week.....there were 3 games toward the end of the year that he was pulled after 3 or 4 innings when he was doing great.....the guy is smart and will figure out ways to get guys out when he is facing them the 3rd time thru the order.....ppl act like a guy cant get better.....people were saying chase probably wasn't going to be in rotation to start the year last year and he turned out to be pretty good.....

The key word in this paragraph....SMART really SMART

[Boomer5]

As we all knew Darvish was never going to happen. So now is it a severly over priced and steep decline of Arrieta or will it be an all in trade for Archer?

[TURBO]

As we all knew Darvish was never going to happen. So now is it a severly over priced and steep decline of Arrieta or will it be an all in trade for Archer?

 

Gosh, both options make me sick to my stomach to be honest.

[JCREW]

As we all knew Darvish was never going to happen. So now is it a severly over priced and steep decline of Arrieta or will it be an all in trade for Archer?

 

Gosh, both options make me sick to my stomach to be honest.

 

I'd prefer Salazar to both of those options.

[NOMAAM]

As we all knew Darvish was never going to happen. So now is it a severly over priced and steep decline of Arrieta or will it be an all in trade for Archer?

 

Gosh, both options make me sick to my stomach to be honest.

 

I'd prefer Salazar to both of those options.

 

Cashner & Salazar

[coolhandluke121]

 

#5 starters average less than 5 innings per start and the manager has to shield them from getting lit up once the 5-6 inning hits?

 

His stats are painfully sugar coated. Because the league isn’t familiar with him and we pull him before he can’t get lit up.

 

But they can keep doing that. I've always argued for more piggy-backing and I believe a serviceable starter in the prime two times through the order can consistently be more effective than an aging starter through 6+ innings who was once a true #2/#3. The Brewers have the bullpen depth and lineup versatility to innovate in ways like that and continue to get the most out of their staff. It affords you lots of options for carrying an extra pitcher at times and minimizing pitcher ab's.

 

And then Nelson comes back, and he can piggy-back with whoever needs it (probably Nelson at first on an innings limit).

[JohnBriggs12]

Suter and Guerra are back end filler. Woodruff has a chance to be more. If the plan is to "hope" that Suter or Guerra way overperforms their ability then this is a lost cause anyway.

 

Guerra's "ability" produced a 4 WAR in 2016 which was good enough to earn the opening day starter in 2017. Suter produced a 1.8 WAR in basically half a year's innings in 2017. Brewers won the last 6 games Suter started in the heat of a playoff race and were 9-5 overall in his starts. In 2016, the Brewers were 14-6 in the games Guerra started. Dismissing either as simply "filler" doesn't do them justice. I'd say both are useful, either in the rotation or the pen and quite possibly more than that. Woodruff showed flashes but he's not established. He's definitely in the mix but it's not a disaster if he starts the year in AAA either because the other two beat him out in spring.

[SandyTolan]

I too am in favor of Salazar... but as I just posted in another thread, what if Stearns and CC are actually planning to unveil Hader in the rotation, pending how he looks there (walks, pitch count, third pitch) in spring training? This could be the equivalent or better of the Darvish signing... IF the ifs are addressed successfully.

[clancyphile]

Suter and Guerra are back end filler. Woodruff has a chance to be more. If the plan is to "hope" that Suter or Guerra way overperforms their ability then this is a lost cause anyway.

 

Guerra's "ability" produced a 4 WAR in 2016 which was good enough to earn the opening day starter in 2017. Suter produced a 1.8 WAR in basically half a year's innings in 2017. Brewers won the last 6 games Suter started in the heat of a playoff race and were 9-5 overall in his starts. In 2016, the Brewers were 14-6 in the games Guerra started. Dismissing either as simply "filler" doesn't do them justice. I'd say both are useful, either in the rotation or the pen and quite possibly more than that. Woodruff showed flashes but he's not established. He's definitely in the mix but it's not a disaster if he starts the year in AAA either because the other two beat him out in spring.

 

Woodruff still has options. Suter, I think, still has a couple of options.

 

At this point, rolling with Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter, and Woodruff makes sense. When Nelson returns, he replaces whichever one of Suter/Woodruff is faring worse (or replaces an injured pitcher - Anderson, Suter, and Woodruff spent time on the DL).

 

But it is just as likely that Suter and Woodruff could take steps forward the way Davies did from 2016 to 2017.

 

Just look at the numbers again:

Davies: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Suter: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Woodruff: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

If Woodruff improves the way Davies did, that's a plus. If Davies takes another step up, that also is a huge plus. Furthermore, if Suter is not having to do the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffles, maybe he goes from a guy who only goes five to a guy who can go six or seven, and that is another plus.

[coolhandluke121]

I would add that you're not competing with the Cubs, Dodgers, or Nationals for regular season record anyway, so all you have to do is keep pace with:

 

Mets (a Murphy's Law team last year that should bounce back by being less mediocre than most of the East)

Cardinals (pretty good but some serious flukes on that team last year IMO)

Rockies (arguably last year's biggest fluke)

Giants (regression is in their favor and they improved their roster substantially)

D-Backs (a very good team IMO)

 

The Brewers were flukes too, but they made slightly bigger improvements than the Cardinals or Rockies. The West teams will be beating up on each other a lot, which probably takes care of the Giants. I could see Martinez staying in Arizona, and they're the only team that is clearly better than the Brewers right now.

 

So basically you're hoping to sneak in and get lucky anyway, so don't compromise more of your future flexibility to get there than you have to.

[nate82]

 

But it is just as likely that Suter and Woodruff could take steps forward the way Davies did from 2016 to 2017.

 

Just look at the numbers again:

Davies: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Suter: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Woodruff: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

If Woodruff improves the way Davies did, that's a plus. If Davies takes another step up, that also is a huge plus. Furthermore, if Suter is not having to do the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffles, maybe he goes from a guy who only goes five to a guy who can go six or seven, and that is another plus.

 

Suter is never going to be a guy that can go six or seven innings. Once Suter goes through the 2nd time through the lineup batters basically see his stuff as t-ball stuff and just start hitting him consistently. Suter is your classic #5 pitcher someone who can get you to around the fifth inning and will occasionally give you six of seven innings but those times are rare. Suter just doesn't have the stuff to make it past the third time through the lineup and thus is stuck in the #5 type pitcher. Suter probably has more value as a loogy than he does as a #5 starter going forward in his career.

[82brewcrew82]

Suter and Guerra are back end filler. Woodruff has a chance to be more. If the plan is to "hope" that Suter or Guerra way overperforms their ability then this is a lost cause anyway.

 

Guerra's "ability" produced a 4 WAR in 2016 which was good enough to earn the opening day starter in 2017. Suter produced a 1.8 WAR in basically half a year's innings in 2017. Brewers won the last 6 games Suter started in the heat of a playoff race and were 9-5 overall in his starts. In 2016, the Brewers were 14-6 in the games Guerra started. Dismissing either as simply "filler" doesn't do them justice. I'd say both are useful, either in the rotation or the pen and quite possibly more than that. Woodruff showed flashes but he's not established. He's definitely in the mix but it's not a disaster if he starts the year in AAA either because the other two beat him out in spring.

Those two are the definition of rotation filler. Starting the season with those two in the rotation is a horrible decision. If you're going to point back to 2016 in defense of Guerra then you have not problem with Villar starting at second, right? No way I expend the resources they have this off season and then point to a pitchers stats from two years ago and say, "yeah, that should work". Suter is a nice guy to have, maybe a good swingman/depth guy. He is not a starting pitcher.

[82brewcrew82]

Suter and Guerra are back end filler. Woodruff has a chance to be more. If the plan is to "hope" that Suter or Guerra way overperforms their ability then this is a lost cause anyway.

 

Guerra's "ability" produced a 4 WAR in 2016 which was good enough to earn the opening day starter in 2017. Suter produced a 1.8 WAR in basically half a year's innings in 2017. Brewers won the last 6 games Suter started in the heat of a playoff race and were 9-5 overall in his starts. In 2016, the Brewers were 14-6 in the games Guerra started. Dismissing either as simply "filler" doesn't do them justice. I'd say both are useful, either in the rotation or the pen and quite possibly more than that. Woodruff showed flashes but he's not established. He's definitely in the mix but it's not a disaster if he starts the year in AAA either because the other two beat him out in spring.

Those two are the definition of rotation filler. Starting the season with those two in the rotation is a horrible decision. If you're going to point back to 2016 in defense of Guerra then you have not problem with Villar starting at second, right? No way I expend the resources they have this off season and then point to a pitchers stats from two years ago and say, "yeah, that should work". Suter is a nice guy to have, maybe a good swingman/depth guy. He is not a starting pitcher.

 

Suter is the Sogard of the pitching staff.

[McRibMcLove]

While I have been of the opinion the brewers need to get a #1/#2 this offseason, I am not entirely comfortable with Arrieta and think Lynn and Cobb are just nice #3/#4 types. I do think the Brewers need to add another SP to guard against regression from Anderson early in the year and underperformance from woodruff/suter at the back end of the rotation until Nelson returns and his performance can be estimated for the remainder of the year. Keep close with the current staff+1 going into July then see whose available at the trade deadline and make a move to add the #1/#2 piece for the final push to the playoffs. I would go after Cobb for 3/42 with a mutual vesting 4th year at $16M. He is a decent 3/4 moving forward and would likely be a #5 after (#1 trade, Nelson, Anderson, Davies) going forward. In a few years Nelson/Anderson will either need big contracts or Burnes, etc make the case that they can replace them. Gives protection also if Nelson doesn't regain his 1/2 performance while not costing a ton. I believe Cobb has more upside than Lynn at this point and would target him. That gives us a plan for competing this year, and puts the Brewers in excellent shape for 2019/2020 - addition of a top of the rotation starter during 2018, idea where Anderson/Nelson are headed and payroll to address SP again next offseason if necessary.

[TJseven7]

I like Suter a lot and I think they guy is smart without being a fragile headcase like some pitchers can be. This makes him adaptable. Between that and the fact that our entire starting rotation is rhp... and he's a lefty.... he's the perfect long man who you can toss in the game if a guy on the verge of imploding or if a guy is merely struggling to find his spots on a random day. He's a quick hook impromptu piggy back option. You can use him as another loogy option. He's smart and stays relaxed. He should be a swiss army knife because those can be very useful and its rare to find guys who can actually be that.

 

As for Davies. He just needs to avoid his first 3-4 starts altogether.

 

I'd prefer not to go on trusting gallardo guerra wilkerson to be our 5 so I'd like a 1 year hole plugger. Jamie Garcia would do the trick. Cheap add of corbin... etc.

[coolhandluke121]

Seeing some extremes on both sides here with Suter. You'd be foolish to bet on him to duplicate last year's success. However, did I just read that he has the most value as a LOOGY? No way. He's a great guy to have as a long reliever and emergency starter, and they should manipulate his appearances so he can regularly give 3-4 innings against teams with LHB-dominant lineups. The same guy who called him a LOOGY also said his biggest problem is he can't go more than twice through the order; I don't see how A leads to B there.

 

You know who else had almost the exact same profile and stats in an uncannily similar situation as a 27-year-old getting his first real taste of the majors? I'll give you guys a few guesses and then I'll tell you. :-)

 

ETA: It's almost scary how similar they are the more you think about it.

[clancyphile]

Seeing some extremes on both sides here with Suter. You'd be foolish to bet on him to duplicate last year's success. However, did I just read that he has the most value as a LOOGY? No way. He's a great guy to have as a long reliever and emergency starter, and they should manipulate his appearances so he can regularly give 3-4 innings against teams with LHB-dominant lineups. The same guy who called him a LOOGY also said his biggest problem is he can't go more than twice through the order; I don't see how A leads to B there.

 

You know who else had almost the exact same profile and stats in an uncannily similar situation as a 27-year-old getting his first real taste of the majors? I'll give you guys a few guesses and then I'll tell you. :-)

 

ETA: It's almost scary how similar they are the more you think about it.

 

I've always seen Suter as a Jamie Moyer type, maybe the potential to be Sharpie or Capuano at their peak...

[82brewcrew82]

Seeing some extremes on both sides here with Suter. You'd be foolish to bet on him to duplicate last year's success. However, did I just read that he has the most value as a LOOGY? No way. He's a great guy to have as a long reliever and emergency starter, and they should manipulate his appearances so he can regularly give 3-4 innings against teams with LHB-dominant lineups. The same guy who called him a LOOGY also said his biggest problem is he can't go more than twice through the order; I don't see how A leads to B there.

 

You know who else had almost the exact same profile and stats in an uncannily similar situation as a 27-year-old getting his first real taste of the majors? I'll give you guys a few guesses and then I'll tell you. :-)

 

ETA: It's almost scary how similar they are the more you think about it.

I agree that Suter has his role to play. I'm certainly not suggesting that they jettison the guy but there is no way I go into a season where I am trying to compete and feel comfortable with him locked in as my number five. I'm sure there is an example or two of a guy with Suter's stuff excelling but those are kind of exceptions that prove the rule.

[coolhandluke121]

A few more hints about the comparison I'm thinking of:

 

- Also had his first full season at 27 as a long reliever who was asked to start for stretches of the year due to attrition

- IP's, WHIP, FIP, k/9, k/bb, hr/9 all within 10-15% of Suter's numbers at the same age

- Slow thrower who relied on location and tempo and craftiness to get outs

- Notoriously bad 3rd time through the order, much more so than the average starter

- When guys hit him, they often went yard, but he usually kept the damage to a minimum

- Supposedly it was just a matter of time before he would implode completely, but he pretty consistently defied expectations

 

Oh, screw it. It's Marco Estrada, another guy I had to go to bat for constantly because he usually got good results when used properly and not asked to go through the order 3 times, which the Brewers can easily manage with Suter too. It was always superficial to say Estrada sucks because he throws too slow and gives up lots of hr's. He was usually effective, and hr's in and of themselves are no more of a red flag against the pitcher than they are a sign of overall competence in a hitter. It works both ways.

[clancyphile]

A few more hints about the comparison I'm thinking of:

 

- Also had his first full season at 27 as a long reliever who was asked to start for stretches of the year due to attrition

- IP's, WHIP, FIP, k/9, k/bb, hr/9 all within 10-15% of Suter's numbers at the same age

- Slow thrower who relied on location and tempo and craftiness to get outs

- Notoriously bad 3rd time through the order, much more so than the average starter

- When guys hit him, they often went yard, but he usually kept the damage to a minimum

- Supposedly it was just a matter of time before he would implode completely, but he pretty consistently defied expectations

 

Oh, screw it. It's Marco Estrada, another guy I had to go to bat for constantly because he usually got good results when used properly and not asked to go through the order 3 times, which the Brewers can easily manage with Suter too. It was always superficial to say Estrada sucks because he throws too slow and gives up lots of hr's. He was usually effective, and hr's in and of themselves are no more of a red flag against the pitcher than they are a sign of overall competence in a hitter. It works both ways.

 

I took a look at Estrada's splits - and his career totals as a starter were 943.1 IP in 161 starts. That's an average of just under six innings, with a career ERA of 4.05. I think Suter's capable of stretching out to six or seven innings a start, especially if the Brewers avoid the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffling.

 

In terms of ERA, I think Suter will be better, mostly because I see his BB9 being a bit lower (2.4 to Estrada's 2.8). I think he's also better at avoiding the gopher ball (1.0 to Estrada's 1.4) over his career. The latter is actually almost a third lower than Estrada's. His H9 and K9 are not as good as Estrada's, but the BB/K ratio is slightly better (2.93 to 2.91).

 

All in all, if Suter in 2018 takes a step forward, it may be time to see about giving him an extension, say, five years, $30 million?

[Mr Southpaw]

A few more hints about the comparison I'm thinking of:

 

- Also had his first full season at 27 as a long reliever who was asked to start for stretches of the year due to attrition

- IP's, WHIP, FIP, k/9, k/bb, hr/9 all within 10-15% of Suter's numbers at the same age

- Slow thrower who relied on location and tempo and craftiness to get outs

- Notoriously bad 3rd time through the order, much more so than the average starter

- When guys hit him, they often went yard, but he usually kept the damage to a minimum

- Supposedly it was just a matter of time before he would implode completely, but he pretty consistently defied expectations

 

Oh, screw it. It's Marco Estrada, another guy I had to go to bat for constantly because he usually got good results when used properly and not asked to go through the order 3 times, which the Brewers can easily manage with Suter too. It was always superficial to say Estrada sucks because he throws too slow and gives up lots of hr's. He was usually effective, and hr's in and of themselves are no more of a red flag against the pitcher than they are a sign of overall competence in a hitter. It works both ways.

 

I took a look at Estrada's splits - and his career totals as a starter were 943.1 IP in 161 starts. That's an average of just under six innings, with a career ERA of 4.05. I think Suter's capable of stretching out to six or seven innings a start, especially if the Brewers avoid the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffling.

 

In terms of ERA, I think Suter will be better, mostly because I see his BB9 being a bit lower (2.4 to Estrada's 2.8). I think he's also better at avoiding the gopher ball (1.0 to Estrada's 1.4) over his career. The latter is actually almost a third lower than Estrada's. His H9 and K9 are not as good as Estrada's, but the BB/K ratio is slightly better (2.93 to 2.91).

 

All in all, if Suter in 2018 takes a step forward, it may be time to see about giving him an extension, say, five years, $30 million?

 

I like Suter, but YIKES!

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm pretty sure clancyphile is actually Brent Suter - or his agent

[jonescm128]

Once again, Haudricourt tweeted saying that Stearns says the reports of Brewers interest in the pitching market is exaggerated. I believe this to be posturing, but let's say its true and that the reports are exaggerated. I think there are going to be a lot of ticked off fans if the extent of their signings is Chacin, Gallardo, and Miley. Woodruff is still unproven and Guerra/Nelson are big question marks that may very well never regain what they had in the past. Brewers would be taking a big risk going into the season with a rotation of:

 

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff/Suter/Guerra/Gallardo for the final two spots

 

As well as hoping for Nelson to regain his form. I think there has to be more moves...because if there is not, it could be a bit of a disaster...

[monty57]

I took a look at Estrada's splits - and his career totals as a starter were 943.1 IP in 161 starts. That's an average of just under six innings, with a career ERA of 4.05. I think Suter's capable of stretching out to six or seven innings a start, especially if the Brewers avoid the AAA/MLB and bullpen/rotation shuffling.

 

In terms of ERA, I think Suter will be better, mostly because I see his BB9 being a bit lower (2.4 to Estrada's 2.8). I think he's also better at avoiding the gopher ball (1.0 to Estrada's 1.4) over his career. The latter is actually almost a third lower than Estrada's. His H9 and K9 are not as good as Estrada's, but the BB/K ratio is slightly better (2.93 to 2.91).

 

All in all, if Suter in 2018 takes a step forward, it may be time to see about giving him an extension, say, five years, $30 million?

 

That's probably something that gets overlooked. Everyone knows that pitchers who move from the bullpen to the rotation need to be stretched out, so it would seem logical that their "third time through the order" numbers would not be pretty. Being "long man"/spot starter is tough duty. You don't know when you're going in, and when you go in you get thrown to the dogs.

 

I expect the Brewers will sign someone, and I'm guessing Cobb. However, if they decide $91M is enough payroll for the year, and they go into the season with the pitchers they have, I wouldn't be in an uproar if they gave Suter a shot in the rotation. He has gotten guys out at every level he's ever played, including the MLB.