In Defense of Not Signing An Expensive Pitcher

[coolhandluke121]

I started a new thread because this isn't about any one free agent and it seems we're having the same debate in multiple threads. Feel free to delete this thread if it's redundant but I don't feel it belongs in any thread about a specific pitcher, or in the "choose a free agent" thread. Please refrain from making it about any particular free agents because it's all about debating the in-house options.

 

Consider the following facts about the Brewers' staff last year:

- Peralta, 57 ip's with an e.r.a. of almost 8

- Guerra, 70 ip's with an e.r.a. over 5

- Feliz, Blazek, Marinez, Espino, Milone, Scahill, Webb, Wang, Jungman - 117.1 ip's (13+ games!), combined e.r.a. over 6

- Torres, Hughes, Barnes, and Drake were the #2-5 guys in the pen before Hader and Swarzak

- Woodruff provided multiple quality starts in the thick of a playoff race against many good offenses in mostly hitters' parks

- Suter was basically good all year

- Both players performed well enough in the minors to suggest that they continue to be solid pitchers

- Either Suter or Garza was the #4 starter all year, and Garza was even the #3 for an extended stretch (he was okay though)

 

So basically you have a staff that was built for tanking, and the Brewers still won 86. I know there will be plenty of regression, but even with Nelson hurt they should still be vastly improved by virtue of the fact that they won't be relying on literally almost a dozen cut-worthy pitchers from day 1 until more than halfway through the season. Just a guy like Chacin alone makes a huge difference considering who they were using. I know they will still have some injuries and have to rely on some junk pitchers like Wilkerson, Guerra, Gallardo, and Lopez, but it will be a small fraction of what we suffered through last year.

[Boomer5]

Going from bad to good is relatively easy. We have seen that our coaching staff can turn scrap heap guys into decent role players.

 

Going from good to great is a totally different story though. The Brewers in 2018 feel that they need to have 4 plus war guys instead of a bunch of 2 war guys and put all the pressure on CC and DJ, which is why they spent so much on two guys when they could have just let Brinson and Phillips develop.

 

The same is going to happen with the rotation. I tend to agree that Woodruff and Suter plus the draft pick plus the salary flexibility is worth more than Lynn or Cobb but that isn't going to happen.

 

I am fully committed to the fact that Brewers are going the expensive win now mode, I just wish they chose an offseason where better players were available. This feels a bit forced.

[homer]

Certainly a case to be made here. Look at KC back in 2015. Their staff and offense were fairly mediocre but they had a great defense and a great bullpen. Not saying that's the Brewers roadmap but there is more than one way to build a winning team.

[coolhandluke121]

Going from bad to good is relatively easy. We have seen that our coaching staff can turn scrap heap guys into decent role players.

 

Going from good to great is a totally different story though. The Brewers in 2018 feel that they need to have 4 plus war guys instead of a bunch of 2 war guys and put all the pressure on CC and DJ, which is why they spent so much on two guys when they could have just let Brinson and Phillips develop.

 

The same is going to happen with the rotation. I tend to agree that Woodruff and Suter plus the draft pick plus the salary flexibility is worth more than Lynn or Cobb but that isn't going to happen.

 

I am fully committed to the fact that Brewers are going the expensive win now mode, I just wish they chose an offseason where better players were available. This feels a bit forced.

 

I agree with most of it. Not sure it's easy to good from bad to good though. I would say it's easy to go from terrible to mediocre, but it's still a significant upgrade and that's all that counts.

 

I think the pen is going to kill it, and I like homer's comparison to KC. Hader and Knebel might not be top-10 relievers again, but they will be good. Albers and Boone are probably more reliable than Hughes, Torres, and Drake. Guys like Barnes, Houser, and Williams are poised to be the next in a long line of Brewer relievers who had a few surprisingly good years in their primes (Axford, Turnbow, Thornburg, Jeffress). The defense could be awesome.

 

I am glad they have a few plus 4 guys now, but baseball is not really all that superstar-driven. You just need the WAR on your team to add up to contention, no matter how you get there. And if you have a bunch of 2-3 WAR guys, it's usually a given that a couple of them will have a career year, even if you don't know which ones that will be.

 

I wasn't posting here at the time but I wanted Chatwood from day 1 and I still think that would have been the best target. Just under the $50m threshold for giving up a pick, and of the right age for mitigating injury/aging risks and growing with the core for a long window of playoff contention.

[And That]

I just wish they chose an offseason where better players were available.

Which FA pitcher is out there next year that the Brewers would realistically have a shot to sign, that is better than Yu Darvish?

[clancyphile]

This is a very good post.

 

The Brewers don't need to rush out and sign a TOR guy. It would be nice, it would make a World Series berth very likely with the other moves, but for the long term, a Darvish or and TOR guy is not a necessity.

 

Here's a little thought experiment:

Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

Pitcher A is Zach Davies.

 

Pitchers B and C are projected as competing for the back end of the rotation spots. B is Brent Suter, C is Brandon Woodruff.

 

I would not be surprised if one or both of Woodruff/Suter had a breakout season in 2018.

[Boomer5]

I just wish they chose an offseason where better players were available.

Which FA pitcher is out there next year that the Brewers would realistically have a shot to sign, that is better than Yu Darvish?

 

First of all I said players not just pitchers and the point is moot because Darvish isn't realistic either. We are talking about Lynn and Cobb who are quality number 3/4 guys who we will force into the 1 role and we've seen that movie before. Arrieta is on a steep decline and I am assuming he really won't be a guy we will sign unless it's literally a 2 year deal.

[82brewcrew82]

If Suter is anywhere near the starting rotation at the beginning of the year this team simply is not interested in contending this year.

[Boomer5]

Going from bad to good is relatively easy. We have seen that our coaching staff can turn scrap heap guys into decent role players.

 

Going from good to great is a totally different story though. The Brewers in 2018 feel that they need to have 4 plus war guys instead of a bunch of 2 war guys and put all the pressure on CC and DJ, which is why they spent so much on two guys when they could have just let Brinson and Phillips develop.

 

The same is going to happen with the rotation. I tend to agree that Woodruff and Suter plus the draft pick plus the salary flexibility is worth more than Lynn or Cobb but that isn't going to happen.

 

I am fully committed to the fact that Brewers are going the expensive win now mode, I just wish they chose an offseason where better players were available. This feels a bit forced.

 

I agree with most of it. Not sure it's easy to good from bad to good though. I would say it's easy to go from terrible to mediocre, but it's still a significant upgrade and that's all that counts.

 

I think the pen is going to kill it, and I like homer's comparison to KC. Hader and Knebel might not be top-10 relievers again, but they will be good. Albers and Boone are probably more reliable than Hughes, Torres, and Drake. Guys like Barnes, Houser, and Williams are poised to be the next in a long line of Brewer relievers who had a few surprisingly good years in their primes (Axford, Turnbow, Thornburg, Jeffress). The defense could be awesome.

 

I am glad they have a few plus 4 guys now, but baseball is not really all that superstar-driven. You just need the WAR on your team to add up to contention, no matter how you get there. And if you have a bunch of 2-3 WAR guys, it's usually a given that a couple of them will have a career year, even if you don't know which ones that will be.

 

I wasn't posting here at the time but I wanted Chatwood from day 1 and I still think that would have been the best target. Just under the $50m threshold for giving up a pick, and of the right age for mitigating injury/aging risks and growing with the core for a long window of playoff contention.

 

Bullpens are so volatile and almost impossible to predict from year to year. Stearns really handcuffed CC with his bullpen signings last year but they developed Knebel and wisely turned Hader into our Andrew Miller. Boone and Albers are just guys but sometimes that's all you need in any given year with the right coaching and circumstances. JJ and the young guys should also do a solid job for us.

 

I would have liked Chatwood too but Chancin is a good signing for the money as a back of the rotation piece.

 

The reason for the unwillingness to develop our young players is the timeline has, for whatever reason, been moved up from 2-3 years to immediately. For that reason and that reason alone the Brewers will either sign a big name FA Pitcher, and or trade for one.

[JohnBriggs12]

This is a very good post.

 

The Brewers don't need to rush out and sign a TOR guy. It would be nice, it would make a World Series berth very likely with the other moves, but for the long term, a Darvish or and TOR guy is not a necessity.

 

Here's a little thought experiment:

Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

Pitcher A is Zach Davies.

 

Pitchers B and C are projected as competing for the back end of the rotation spots. B is Brent Suter, C is Brandon Woodruff.

 

I would not be surprised if one or both of Woodruff/Suter had a breakout season in 2018.

 

I wouldn't rule it out but Guerra returning to close to his 2016 form can't be dismissed either. He had to overcome not just an injury last year but coming off his 2016 he was bound to press if things didn't go right early on. Now he's back as an afterthought for many.

[Devinep]

This is a very good post.

 

The Brewers don't need to rush out and sign a TOR guy. It would be nice, it would make a World Series berth very likely with the other moves, but for the long term, a Darvish or and TOR guy is not a necessity.

 

Here's a little thought experiment:

Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

Pitcher A is Zach Davies.

 

Pitchers B and C are projected as competing for the back end of the rotation spots. B is Brent Suter, C is Brandon Woodruff.

 

I would not be surprised if one or both of Woodruff/Suter had a breakout season in 2018.

 

I think they have more than proven that they won’t right to sign a top starter, since it’s February.

[jonescm128]

If Suter is anywhere near the starting rotation at the beginning of the year this team simply is not interested in contending this year.

 

I would be okay with it, as long as he only goes through the order once!

[MrTPlush]

Look I agree you can win without a true ace, but I don't think we should be trying to be the next 2015 Royals. They were a very unique case and if we are looking to be the next exception to what it usually takes 99% chance we never see a World Series. That 2015 Royals team had an elite bullpen. I think ours is great, but not on that level. That is a huge reason they won't it all(love elite bullpens). Also they did have an ace(Johnny Cueto) who single handedly got them 25% of their World Series wins.

 

If Jimmy Nelson can come back strong and Chase Anderson can be a low 3 ERA guy then maybe just grabbing a Cobb/Lynn is sufficient. That is a big assumption though.

[pacopete4]

If Suter is anywhere near the starting rotation at the beginning of the year this team simply is not interested in contending this year.

 

That’s not true. Suter could very well be a quality #5 guy. Numbers suggest it and he competes his butt off. The guy started 14 games last year and gave us a mid 3 ERA with a 1.2 WHIP.

[Boomer5]

If Suter is anywhere near the starting rotation at the beginning of the year this team simply is not interested in contending this year.

 

Watching him pitch is painful I agree. He literally - No I mean literally - throws like a left handed position player brought in to pitch in a blow out game.

 

Still the guys has always been effective and let's face it he was pretty darn good last year. I can't say I would bet the mortgage that he will have yet another good year in 2018 but he certainly wouldn't be the first crafty lefty to succeed in MLB.

[And That]

First of all I said players not just pitchers

This is a topic about pitchers. Regardless...

 

Which FA outfielder is out there next year that the Brewers would realistically have a shot to sign, that is better than Lorenzo Cain?

 

Darvish isn't realistic either

The Brewers seem to think it is, or they wouldn't be dedicating resources to his pursuit. I'll defer to their opinion of plausibility.

[82brewcrew82]

If Suter is anywhere near the starting rotation at the beginning of the year this team simply is not interested in contending this year.

 

Watching him pitch is painful I agree. He literally - No I mean literally - throws like a left handed position player brought in to pitch in a blow out game.

 

Still the guys has always been effective and let's face it he was pretty darn good last year. I can't say I would bet the mortgage that he will have yet another good year in 2018 but he certainly wouldn't be the first crafty lefty to succeed in MLB.

They guy has a hard time getting through an order more than once. Give him 30 starts and watch that nightmare happen.

[Boomer5]

First of all I said players not just pitchers

This is a topic about pitchers. Regardless...

 

Which FA outfielder is out there next year that the Brewers would realistically have a shot to sign, that is better than Lorenzo Cain?

 

Irrelevant because I wouldn't have signed Cain, certainly not to that contract, and I wouldn't ever give up a draft pick unless it was for a super elite player. I think you have missed my point anyhow. I am not nor will ever be a fan of the big FA signing unless it is absolutely the last piece to a WS team. I am a big believer that you build from the farm out. FA for players over 30 with 5 plus year deals is only what foolish teams do.

 

OF was not a postion of need. Cain and Yelich are better players than what we had in 2018, but as has been pointed out often by many they are nice pieces to have, not by themselves the missing piece to a WS quality team.

 

The team chose to go to win now mode this year, a point which I'm not sure anyone here can articulate. It wouldn't have been my choice because no one available is a win now headliner, even Darvish.

[TURBO]

I'm disappointed that we switched from a re-build mode to a win now mode with just the smallest taste of success last season.

 

I really thought we'd be playing young guys this year and next, to see what we truly have, rather than start to unload some of the farm to make an attempt at the playoffs in 2018.

 

I'm not 100% sold that we needed to go out and grab outfielders when we had Brinson and Phillips ready to see what we have in them, all but pushing Santana aside in the process.

 

I think we are better NOW with the acquisition of Yelich and Cain, but are we going to be better in 2019 and 2020 had we stuck with the original plan?

 

I am going to assume that they know what they are doing, and that things will work out, but I still question the need to change our course this soon.

 

I think both Darvish and Arrieta are going to be giant mistakes 3 years down the road, and we'll be stuck with their salaries, as we now feel we are with Ryan Braun's. I do not feel like Lynn or Cobb are enough of a difference maker to propel us into the next level with teams like Washington, the Astros, the Dodgers, or even the Cubs. I think we are blowing our load too soon. I will be happy to eat crow if I am wrong, but trading away another big part of our farm for a regressing, over-hyped Archer is, imo, the worst move we can make from this point on. I'd much rather over pay one of Arrieta or Darvish and keep the farm in tact for when we need them.

 

Again, I could be wrong, or I could be right, I'm just hoping that jumping into win-now mode isn't going to hurt our chances in the future of building a winner that can sustain success in a larger window, not a shorter one.

[clancyphile]

This is a very good post.

 

The Brewers don't need to rush out and sign a TOR guy. It would be nice, it would make a World Series berth very likely with the other moves, but for the long term, a Darvish or and TOR guy is not a necessity.

 

Here's a little thought experiment:

Pitcher A: 1.354 WHIP, 9.6 H9, 2.5 BB9, 5.8 K9 - Considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate by MLB.com, had a breakout year in 2017

Pitcher B: 1.286 WHIP, 9.1 H9, 2.4 BB9, 7.1 K9

Pitcher C: 1.326 WHIP, 9.0 H9, 2.9 BB9, 6.7 K9

 

Pitcher A is Zach Davies.

 

Pitchers B and C are projected as competing for the back end of the rotation spots. B is Brent Suter, C is Brandon Woodruff.

 

I would not be surprised if one or both of Woodruff/Suter had a breakout season in 2018.

 

I wouldn't rule it out but Guerra returning to close to his 2016 form can't be dismissed either. He had to overcome not just an injury last year but coming off his 2016 he was bound to press if things didn't go right early on. Now he's back as an afterthought for many.

 

That is a possibility, but Guerra is 32, and while I'd never say never, the odds are not in his favor.

 

That said, it does raise the point- the Brewers have some real depth in the rotation.

 

I think the Crew can afford to take their time. They don't need to deal a ton of prospects or shell out a nine-figure deal for a TOR guy. Corbin Burnes may well emerge as one in the 2019-2022 timeframe.

 

A more useful approach might be to try and extend Davies, and if they do break out, Woodruff and Suter.

[82brewcrew82]

Suter and Guerra are back end filler. Woodruff has a chance to be more. If the plan is to "hope" that Suter or Guerra way overperforms their ability then this is a lost cause anyway.

[MrTPlush]

If Suter is anywhere near the starting rotation at the beginning of the year this team simply is not interested in contending this year.

 

That’s not true. Suter could very well be a quality #5 guy. Numbers suggest it and he competes his butt off. The guy started 14 games last year and gave us a mid 3 ERA with a 1.2 WHIP.

 

#5 starters average less than 5 innings per start and the manager has to shield them from getting lit up once the 5-6 inning hits?

 

His stats are painfully sugar coated. Because the league isn’t familiar with him and we pull him before he can’t get lit up.

[homer]

To me Suter is a "nice to have in case" guy but not someone I want to put in the rotation in permanent marker.

[82brewcrew82]

To me Suter is a "nice to have in case" guy but not someone I want to put in the rotation in permanent marker.

Exactly.

[packer822]

I don't get the non like for suter......I will take a guy that loves to compete everyday of the week.....there were 3 games toward the end of the year that he was pulled after 3 or 4 innings when he was doing great.....the guy is smart and will figure out ways to get guys out when he is facing them the 3rd time thru the order.....ppl act like a guy cant get better.....people were saying chase probably wasn't going to be in rotation to start the year last year and he turned out to be pretty good.....