Domingo Santana - round 2

[Humans Need Water]

Braun has played 135, 140, and 135 in 3 of the last 4 years. Playing 1b makes him a bit less susceptible to injury, more likely to stay healthy. Expecting 130-140 is more than reasonable. Implying it will be closer to 100 as many have is just nonsense.

 

Averaging 121 starts on defense in that span and trending in the wrong direction. Almost missed over 1/3 of his games in 2013 before being suspended and OPS'ing under .850 with about -1 dWAR every year since going off the PEDs. Looked on the decline last season, and there's really no reason to think that's going to go the other way anytime soon. Father Time is undefeated. He's just a guy who's constantly susceptible to various aches and pains that limit his performance, and it's only going to get worse.

Why aren't you whining about Cain? He has 48 more PAs than Braun over the past 4yrs. *FORTY-EIGHT*

 

Braun's had 564+ PA in 9 of his 11 seasons - 2yrs he didn't were suspension year and last year

 

Cain has had 503+ PA in 2 of his 6 seasons. 3 of his 6yrs he's had 442 or fewer PAs. And he's 2.5yrs *younger*.

 

Cain has given his team inconsistent PT. 600+ PA one season then less than 440 the next whereas Braun has consistently had 560+ outside of last season (would have suspension year if he wasn't suspended).

 

Braun is "trending in the wrong direction". I don't think you understand the definition of "trending". Looked on the decline last season? Is that why he had the highest hard contact rate of his career and a BABIP that was 30-35pts lower than the previous several years? He was injured the majority of the time and still slashed 268/336/823 with a 111 OPS+ (prior 2yrs he was 135/131).

 

OPSing under 850 every year since going off PED? He failed the test after the 2011 season. Since that time his OPS has been 987, 869, 777 (played entire season with nerve damage in thumb then had cryotherapy procedure), 854, 903, 823. With 10 games left in the season last year he was slashing 279/350/863.

 

Mod edit: no reason for that last sentence. Please knock it off.

[Dadbauer]

What if Stearns has a secret weapon SP we aren't considering... named Josh Hader? What if they land another RP and despite what they've said publicly, take a close look at him in spring training, see if he can keep his walks down and develop that third pitch... and then put him in the rotation?

 

That is not the "secret weapon" that will take us to the playoffs. If Hader is in the rotation this year, get ready for some growing pains and struggles. Get ready for hitters figuring him out by seeing him 3 times a game and him struggling to make adjustments because he's young. Also get ready for him to not pitch in the playoffs because he will be on an innings limit.

[coolhandluke121]

Mod edit: leaving this as it's a good post. It references a now deleted portion from someone else

 

The patently obvious fact that he's not nearly the player he used to be, has been a liability in the field for years now, is a good 5 years past his prime, and is just now reaching an age where the vast majority of players cease to be valuable everyday bats?

 

He has been a pretty good hitter for several seasons. It's foolhardy to assume it will continue.

[chris10809]

Over his 5 years Yelich has an average of 128 starts or so. Braun is no guarantee to eclipse the 130. Cain when healthy is good for 150 but again his average over the last 5 years is 129 starts. What would be a better estimate of number of games started by a 4th OF in this scenario, 60? 80? Then add in 9 road inter-league games and any starts if Braun moves to 1st vs lefties and you've got a good amount of starts. Anyways, more of a general thought than anything else.

[Eye Black]

Over his 5 years Yelich has an average of 128 starts or so.

You factored in Yelich’s first (age-21) season when he made his major league debut in late July and only played in 62 games. In the four seasons since he has played in 144, 126, 155, 156 games, respectively.

[chris10809]

Over his 5 years Yelich has an average of 128 starts or so.

You factored in Yelich’s first (age-21) season when he made his major league debut in late July and only played in 62 games. In the four seasons since he has played in 144, 126, 155, 156 games, respectively.

 

True but those numbers are just place holders. I also didn't account for missed games due to injury for Braun and Cain, who have a tendency to miss games due to injury. The point, which is being missed here, is that between the 3 OF positions there is a good chance that there will be 60-80+ starts for a 4th outfielder. Lorenzo cain has averaged 129 starts over his last 5, prime years. Braun, starting at the year of his suspension(when he missed much of the rest of the year with thumb nerve damage), has averaged 115 starts. Even if we didnt include his suspension year he still has averaged less than/basically 130 starts per year over last 4. Regardless of where the OF starts would come from the fact remains that there would be a good number of starts for a 4th OF. So not including starts from a 1st base platoon for braun and DH on road interleague games i still think its doable to keep all 4. That being said i would try to trade Santana, but only for good value. I was reading how the brewers have hurt themselves bc now team know they need to trade Santana and that, to me, is wrong. That was the reason for my iniitial post, I enjoy the back and forth on this forum. Go Brewers!!

[NievesNoNO]

Yes, you could keep 4 starting OFs but it's just not good roster construction for this group, imo. You can slice up the ABs any way you want really but to me it's still a waste of a resource. If they had no holes in their WS contending roster then sure I'd think it was an ok consideration. However, there are plenty of spots that could be upgraded with a potential Santana trade. I'm not saying trade him for an unfair return but I think the goal still has to be to trade him.

 

There's really no proof Braun can play an adequate 1B. He was terrible at 3B; he's just not good on the IF. At least he can use his speed in the OF. Moving him to 1B, will undoubtedly decrease his defensive value even more.

[chris10809]

Agreed Nieves, I would also trade him if i could get a legit starter in return. Heck i would consider a trade where the return is a good haul of near MLB prospects. But i wouldnt trade him simply bc we have 4 really good OFers. I think once JD Martinez signs there will still be teams looking for an OF who started 150+ games and hit 30 homers. I also think Brett Phillips would be a better 4th OF; above average defense at all 3 positions, cannon for an arm and good on the base paths. I believe with 6 years of team control at this point he'd be much more affordable going forward than Santana.

[coolhandluke121]

 

There's really no proof Braun can play an adequate 1B. He was terrible at 3B; he's just not good on the IF. At least he can use his speed in the OF. Moving him to 1B, will undoubtedly decrease his defensive value even more.

 

I think it's more nuanced than that. First off, his speed in the outfield is good, but not good enough to make up for his lack of instincts. You have to have elite speed to compensate for not getting a good break on the ball. The best outfielders know which way the ball is going to slice or hook from the sound of the bat hitting the ball, for example.

 

You can math this out, too. 40 yards is farther than you can realistically expect a corner outfielder to run on a regular basis, and the difference between a Braun and a guy with mediocre speed is probably about .3 seconds for 40 yards. Do you think Braun doesn't routinely lose close to half a second by getting bad reads? His throws also aren't very accurate, missing the cut-off man and stuff like that.

 

I think he will be at least as good as Thames and Aguilar at 1b. Reach is really important in a 1b, and he can play an extra step off the bag because of his speed. That kind of stuff can compensate a little for a bad glove, and he won't have to throw much. He will need a lot of reps to get the decision-making down.

 

I'm pretty optimistic. I'm not even that high on Braun this year and wouldn't be suprised if it's his last +2 WAR season, but he certainly has a ton more value than Aguilar as a platoon 1b who can play more than just against lhp's and back up other positions as well.

 

ETA: I also am intrigued by having a fast 1b in the lineup. I think base-running value and range is something that analytics hasn't fully caught up to, and adamantly disagree with the notion that speed is "wasted" at 1b. Even if you don't care about the range and the ability to shift an extra step, the dude still gets to run when he's on base. This lineup could put a TON of pressure on opposing batteries and the benefits of that are underrated.

[JosephC]

I just hope the Brewer's don't get too tied up in the idea that they are in "win now at all costs" mode and think they must get immediate rotation help in order to move Santana. I'd be more than happy to see Santana go if the Brewers got a good package of prospects back.

[82brewcrew82]

I just hope the Brewer's don't get too tied up in the idea that they are in "win now at all costs" mode and think they must get immediate rotation help in order to move Santana. I'd be more than happy to see Santana go if the Brewers got a good package of prospects back.

It they were, we'd have a pitcher or two by now.

[82brewcrew82]

Are the Domingo/Ortiz to the Rays for Archer rumors for reel?

[SandyTolan]

Are the Domingo/Ortiz to the Rays for Archer rumors for reel?

 

I haven't seen those rumors. Do you have a link? I"m curious.

 

A certain HH around here was saying the Rays wanted Domingo, Burnes, Peralta and Phillips - a price even the most ardent let's-get-Archer fan seems go find too high - but who knows if this was really true? If it were Domingo + Ortiz and another not-huge piece, I'd be down with that. But I'm a little skeptical. Would love to know where that rumor comes from.

[Outlander]

If you are still interested to see what HH19 has to say he is giving info to former poster RamblingAl at his blog. Turning their attention to Arrieta and Cobb per the blog.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Are the Domingo/Ortiz to the Rays for Archer rumors for reel?

 

Yeah, where is that one? This is the first I've heard about it.

 

That trade would be very palatable, depending on who else is included.

[82brewcrew82]

Are the Domingo/Ortiz to the Rays for Archer rumors for reel?

 

Yeah, where is that one? This is the first I've heard about it.

 

That trade would be very palatable, depending on who else is included.

I dug a little deeper and I don't think it's real. I am seeing a lot of smoke around something going down with the Rays though from various sources (no, not inside sources).

[NOMAAM]

Are the Domingo/Ortiz to the Rays for Archer rumors for reel?

 

Yeah, where is that one? This is the first I've heard about it.

 

That trade would be very palatable, depending on who else is included.

I dug a little deeper and I don't think it's real. I am seeing a lot of smoke around something going down with the Rays though from various sources (no, not inside sources).

 

More likely Odorizzi than Archer.

[homer]

 

There's really no proof Braun can play an adequate 1B. He was terrible at 3B; he's just not good on the IF. At least he can use his speed in the OF. Moving him to 1B, will undoubtedly decrease his defensive value even more.

 

 

I think he will be at least as good as Thames and Aguilar at 1b. Reach is really important in a 1b, and he can play an extra step off the bag because of his speed. That kind of stuff can compensate a little for a bad glove, and he won't have to throw much. He will need a lot of reps to get the decision-making down.

 

ETA: I also am intrigued by having a fast 1b in the lineup. I think base-running value and range is something that analytics hasn't fully caught up to, and adamantly disagree with the notion that speed is "wasted" at 1b. Even if you don't care about the range and the ability to shift an extra step, the dude still gets to run when he's on base. This lineup could put a TON of pressure on opposing batteries and the benefits of that are underrated.

 

Based only on the eye test, I actually think Thames is pretty fast. I'd be curious to see how he compares to Braun.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

More likely Odorizzi than Archer.

 

I'd be very hesitant to do Ortiz/Santana for Odorizzi. I don't know if Santana for Odorizzi straight up is a fair deal.

[nate82]

 

More likely Odorizzi than Archer.

 

Odorizzi doesn't even have enough value to get Santana alone or even Ortiz on his own.

[NOMAAM]

More likely Odorizzi than Archer.

 

I'd be very hesitant to do Ortiz/Santana for Odorizzi. I don't know if Santana for Odorizzi straight up is a fair deal.

 

Sorry I meant if a deal goes down it with the Rays it will likely be for Odorizzi. Not that any deal would include Santana.

[jjfanec]

Are the Domingo/Ortiz to the Rays for Archer rumors for reel?

 

If that rumor is real Stearns should make that trade in a heart beat. Can't imagine the Rays would go for that.

 

At the same time that better not be the price for odorizzi. He isn't worth that

[brewmann04]

TB is asking for the moon here

[Brewers21]

Santana to Arizona for Corbin is a rumor circulating. Other players are involved but no details. Arizona hesitating until Martinez signs.

[pacopete4]

Santana to Arizona for Corbin is a rumor circulating. Other players are involved but no details. Arizona hesitating until Martinez signs.

 

Gross. If that’s all that Santana is used for. Gross.