Domingo Santana - round 2

[82brewcrew82]

Maybe HH19 can provide some details, but I think Stearns has walked away from the idea of an Archer trade. Tampa believes his value is way too high in my opinion, and I don't think he wants to give too much more than he has already offered. My guess would be that a Santana + for Archer trade would be 95% towards no.

 

Also I want to add, any addition of Phillips/Burnes/Hiura to that trade makes me absolutely cringe. I think anyone else could/should be on the table

I am convinced now more than ever that the GM's of the given teams are the only ones that have any actual insight. I would also guess that there is a significantly better chance than 5% that Archer could be a Brewer.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd prefer all top 4 FA pitchers to Archer. Archer was good 3 years ago, but very average since.

[82brewcrew82]

I'd prefer all top 4 FA pitchers to Archer. Archer was good 3 years ago, but very average since.

I honestly don't know what I'd prefer anymore. Is there such a thing as rumor fatigue?

[badger3034]

Maybe HH19 can provide some details, but I think Stearns has walked away from the idea of an Archer trade. Tampa believes his value is way too high in my opinion, and I don't think he wants to give too much more than he has already offered. My guess would be that a Santana + for Archer trade would be 95% towards no.

 

Also I want to add, any addition of Phillips/Burnes/Hiura to that trade makes me absolutely cringe. I think anyone else could/should be on the table

I am convinced now more than ever that the GM's of the given teams are the only ones that have any actual insight. I would also guess that there is a significantly better chance than 5% that Archer could be a Brewer.

 

At this point, I don't think I even want Archer. The idea of giving up so many prospects for a player that we could just give some money too (those free agents are probably just as good as Archer, except Lynn), makes me upset. Phillips is such an amazing compliment to this roster, he fits so perfectly. I would be very upset if we managed to give him up.

[82brewcrew82]

Maybe HH19 can provide some details, but I think Stearns has walked away from the idea of an Archer trade. Tampa believes his value is way too high in my opinion, and I don't think he wants to give too much more than he has already offered. My guess would be that a Santana + for Archer trade would be 95% towards no.

 

Also I want to add, any addition of Phillips/Burnes/Hiura to that trade makes me absolutely cringe. I think anyone else could/should be on the table

I am convinced now more than ever that the GM's of the given teams are the only ones that have any actual insight. I would also guess that there is a significantly better chance than 5% that Archer could be a Brewer.

 

At this point, I don't think I even want Archer. The idea of giving up so many prospects for a player that we could just give some money too (those free agents are probably just as good as Archer, except Lynn), makes me upset. Phillips is such an amazing compliment to this roster, he fits so perfectly. I would be very upset if we managed to give him up.

I agree with you on Phillips. I'm not sure what the right move is but they need at least one pitcher.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At this point, I don't think I even want Archer. The idea of giving up so many prospects for a player that we could just give some money too (those free agents are probably just as good as Archer, except Lynn), makes me upset. Phillips is such an amazing compliment to this roster, he fits so perfectly. I would be very upset if we managed to give him up.

 

I too agree on Phillips. His profile fits exactly what Stearns is trying to do.

 

To me, though, Burnes, Hiura and any other prospect are expendable in the right deal. Burnes is a nice pitching prospect, and it's nice to have those. Hiura has proven absolutely nothing. We have no idea is he can even play in the field. If someone attaches a high value to him, and wants to give up a high-end starter, bye-bye Keston.

[badger3034]

At this point, I don't think I even want Archer. The idea of giving up so many prospects for a player that we could just give some money too (those free agents are probably just as good as Archer, except Lynn), makes me upset. Phillips is such an amazing compliment to this roster, he fits so perfectly. I would be very upset if we managed to give him up.

 

I too agree on Phillips. His profile fits exactly what Stearns is trying to do.

 

To me, though, Burnes, Hiura and any other prospect are expendable in the right deal. Burnes is a nice pitching prospect, and it's nice to have those. Hiura has proven absolutely nothing. We have no idea is he can even play in the field. If someone attaches a high value to him, and wants to give up a high-end starter, bye-bye Keston.

 

So far, neither Keston nor Burnes has proven anything, to your point. Neither has seen ML time and each could be a total flop. But that is the gamble you take with prospects the mass majority of the time right? I think you have to trust the professional scouts (to an extent) and believe that they know what they're talking about when they say that these two have some of the highest ceilings in our farm system. Phillips isn't a prospect anymore, hes a ML player, and I think our system is growing thin, contrary to popular belief on this board. I think these are getting closer (not the last hope) to the last remaining high ceiling prospects we have in our system, and I'm not willing to give them up.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So far, neither Keston nor Burnes has proven anything, to your point. Neither has seen ML time and each could be a total flop. But that is the gamble you take with prospects the mass majority of the time right? I think you have to trust the professional scouts (to an extent) and believe that they know what they're talking about when they say that these two have some of the highest ceilings in our farm system. Phillips isn't a prospect anymore, hes a ML player, and I think our system is growing thin, contrary to popular belief on this board. I think these are getting closer (not the last hope) to the last remaining high ceiling prospects we have in our system, and I'm not willing to give them up.

 

Yes, system strength is cyclical, as prospects graduate or are traded off. But to say these guys are the last remaining high-ceiling prospects is a pretty myopic viewpoint. Burnes was a 2016 draftee, and Hiura was just drafted last season. A whole new batch of prospects will be introduced to the system through the draft and international free agency in only a few months. I have been very impressed with Sterns's drafts, as he seems to be prioritizing upside over the "safe" picks that littered the Doug Melvin years.

 

The whole goal of a farm system is to improve the major league team. If that means prospects mature and end up playing for the Brewers, great! If that means prospects are used as currency to improve the major league club through trades, also great. If they trade Burnes and Hiura for a pitcher, it will be a hit, but the system isn't even close to being compromised.

[badger3034]

So far, neither Keston nor Burnes has proven anything, to your point. Neither has seen ML time and each could be a total flop. But that is the gamble you take with prospects the mass majority of the time right? I think you have to trust the professional scouts (to an extent) and believe that they know what they're talking about when they say that these two have some of the highest ceilings in our farm system. Phillips isn't a prospect anymore, hes a ML player, and I think our system is growing thin, contrary to popular belief on this board. I think these are getting closer (not the last hope) to the last remaining high ceiling prospects we have in our system, and I'm not willing to give them up.

 

Yes, system strength is cyclical, as prospects graduate or are traded off. But to say these guys are the last remaining high-ceiling prospects is a pretty myopic viewpoint. Burnes was a 2016 draftee, and Hiura was just drafted last season. A whole new batch of prospects will be introduced to the system through the draft and international free agency in only a few months. I have been very impressed with Sterns's drafts, as he seems to be prioritizing upside over the "safe" picks that littered the Doug Melvin years.

 

The whole goal of a farm system is to improve the major league team. If that means prospects mature and end up playing for the Brewers, great! If that means prospects are used as currency to improve the major league club through trades, also great. If they trade Burnes and Hiura for a pitcher, it will be a hit, but the system isn't even close to being compromised.

 

Don't get me wrong in the way that I'm against trading away prospects for proven MLB players. I'm for it, it's just that a player like Chris Archer is far from a player you really want to be trading for imo. Can you name some other high ceiling players in the farm system right now that doesn't deplete it? Multiple farm projections have came out listing only about 3-5 top 100 prospects in our system. I'm not saying that these are gospel, but these people are literally paid to study this stuff, that's their job.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd prefer all top 4 FA pitchers to Archer. Archer was good 3 years ago, but very average since.

I honestly don't know what I'd prefer anymore. Is there such a thing as rumor fatigue?

 

Closure. We want closure.

[brewmann04]

I don't think the so called prospects that TB wants for Archer is not worth the price.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Don't get me wrong in the way that I'm against trading away prospects for proven MLB players. I'm for it, it's just that a player like Chris Archer is far from a player you really want to be trading for imo. Can you name some other high ceiling players in the farm system right now that doesn't deplete it? Multiple farm projections have came out listing only about 3-5 top 100 prospects in our system. I'm not saying that these are gospel, but these people are literally paid to study this stuff, that's their job.

 

There's also experts out there that believe that Archer would excel if removed from the AL East. He's got the durability and stuff to make it happen.

 

As for other high ceiling prospects, Lutz has all the makings of a stud, and Ray was a top 5 pick for a reason. Kirby should be back this season, and could be a quick riser. Erceg could be the 3B of the future. Ortiz is a former Top 100 guy who is still very young and can ascend. Young guys like Carmona, Ernesto, Rogriguez and Ward have HUGE potential. It's still a very good system.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think the so called prospects that TB wants for Archer is not worth the price.

 

No one truly knows what TB wants. It's all speculation.

[badger3034]

Don't get me wrong in the way that I'm against trading away prospects for proven MLB players. I'm for it, it's just that a player like Chris Archer is far from a player you really want to be trading for imo. Can you name some other high ceiling players in the farm system right now that doesn't deplete it? Multiple farm projections have came out listing only about 3-5 top 100 prospects in our system. I'm not saying that these are gospel, but these people are literally paid to study this stuff, that's their job.

 

There's also experts out there that believe that Archer would excel if removed from the AL East. He's got the durability and stuff to make it happen.

 

As for other high ceiling prospects, Lutz has all the makings of a stud, and Ray was a top 5 pick for a reason. Kirby should be back this season, and could be a quick riser. Erceg could be the 3B of the future. Ortiz is a former Top 100 guy who is still very young and can ascend. Young guys like Carmona, Ernesto, Rogriguez and Ward have HUGE potential. It's still a very good system.

 

What TB wants is more than what's currently listed in our current top 100 prospects for Archer, which would be maybe considered a top 20-25 pitcher in baseball. Sure, he's cheap with years controller, but likely, he's going to get worse pitching in a hitters stadium like Miller. I think, and I'd assume most gms would feel this way, that spending money is a more efficient way to get a pitcher like that, than giving up your best prospects. And I missed Erceg, made a mistake there. He's the only one of the people you mentioned additional that I personally think has actual value

[brewmann04]

Yes and most speculated that it would cost Burnes and Peralta plus Santana and again I would not like giving up two young arms for Archer

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's the only one of the people you mentioned additional that I personally think has actual value

 

Last year Hiura was in college and Burnes was just some recently-drafted college pitcher in Low A ball. They'll have prospects that break out this year, just like Burnes did. This is not a top-heavy system like it was during most of the Melvin years.

 

And if you want high-ceiling prospects, keep an eye on Lutz. You'll think he has "actual value" by the end of the summer.

[Mr Southpaw]

He's the only one of the people you mentioned additional that I personally think has actual value

 

Last year Hiura was in college and Burnes was just some recently-drafted college pitcher in Low A ball. They'll have prospects that break out this year, just like Burnes did. This is not a top-heavy system like it was during most of the Melvin years.

 

And if you want high-ceiling prospects, keep an eye on Lutz. You'll think he has "actual value" by the end of the summer.

 

I don't look at Burnes "as just some recently-drafted college pitcher". He was a fourth round pick who had very good success in college and showed lots of promise since the day he was drafted. In every stop in the minors he has been more than impressive. He does have a chance to be special. I don't feel that way with very many minor leaguers an I bet Tampa Bay feels the way I do and that is why they want him. I do not think Archer is worth what Burnes (plus the others) would cost the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's the only one of the people you mentioned additional that I personally think has actual value

 

Last year Hiura was in college and Burnes was just some recently-drafted college pitcher in Low A ball. They'll have prospects that break out this year, just like Burnes did. This is not a top-heavy system like it was during most of the Melvin years.

 

And if you want high-ceiling prospects, keep an eye on Lutz. You'll think he has "actual value" by the end of the summer.

 

I don't look at Burnes "as just some recently-drafted college pitcher". He was a fourth round pick who had very good success in college and showed lots of promise since the day he was drafted. In every stop in the minors he has been more than impressive. He does have a chance to be special. I don't feel that way with very many minor leaguers an I bet Tampa Bay feels the way I do and that is why they want him. I do not think Archer is worth what Burnes (plus the others) would cost the Brewers.

 

Plenty of pitchers look great in the minors, then flame out in the majors. Case in point: Hendrickson, Ben and dozens of others. Historically, unless you have a sure-fire top-of-rotation stud sitting in your minor league system, it is a better bet to trade them for a proven commodity. Perhaps its the jaded Brewer fan in me talking ... the one that has seen hyped pitchers time and time again fail in this system. The odds just aren't there to give me a ton of faith in Burnes.

 

Also, the whole point of my post was viewpoints on prospects can change greatly in a year. Burnes didn't have near the prospect profile going into 2017 that he does now. And I know the team has other pitchers that will break out as studs this year.

[82brewcrew82]

He's the only one of the people you mentioned additional that I personally think has actual value

 

Last year Hiura was in college and Burnes was just some recently-drafted college pitcher in Low A ball. They'll have prospects that break out this year, just like Burnes did. This is not a top-heavy system like it was during most of the Melvin years.

 

And if you want high-ceiling prospects, keep an eye on Lutz. You'll think he has "actual value" by the end of the summer.

 

I don't look at Burnes "as just some recently-drafted college pitcher". He was a fourth round pick who had very good success in college and showed lots of promise since the day he was drafted. In every stop in the minors he has been more than impressive. He does have a chance to be special. I don't feel that way with very many minor leaguers an I bet Tampa Bay feels the way I do and that is why they want him. I do not think Archer is worth what Burnes (plus the others) would cost the Brewers.

Are you basing this on just his numbers? The reports on Burnes coming out as a fourth round pick were that the Brewers got an absolute steal at that spot. So yes, i agree he is not exactly a diamond in the rough fourth round pick. He is and was a talented college pitcher. Having said that, being a good college pitcher I would expect him to have the results he did in the lower levels. His success in AA opened my eyes a bit more. However, when you start reading the scouting reports, his stuff may not be TOR stuff. You can't base that decision on just his numbers alone.

 

Perhaps the Brewers scouts don't think Burnes will ever reach the same level that Archer is at right now, maybe they do. This is why Stearns makes the big bucks and I trust his decision making.

[Fear The Chorizo]

We're going to find out alot more about Burnes' ceiling this year, as he should open up no lower than in AA and probably will see alot of action in AAA. His stuff is definitely MLB-starting caliber, the question becomes once he advances to levels where hitters are used to facing pitchers with MLB-caliber command, does Burnes' stuff play up to being that of a TOR starter? Scouting reports say no, but you have to give him the opportunity and benefit of the doubt until his performance proves scouting reports right or wrong. At worst, Burnes profiles as a mid-rotation starter that's probably ready for MLB by opening day 2019, if not sooner. That's an incredibly valuable prospect to have in the upper minors.

[82brewcrew82]

We're going to find out alot more about Burnes' ceiling this year, as he should open up no lower than in AA and probably will see alot of action in AAA. His stuff is definitely MLB-starting caliber, the question becomes once he advances to levels where hitters are used to facing pitchers with MLB-caliber command, does Burnes' stuff play up to being that of a TOR starter? Scouting reports say no, but you have to give him the opportunity and benefit of the doubt until his performance proves scouting reports right or wrong. At worst, Burnes profiles as a mid-rotation starter that's probably ready for MLB by opening day 2019, if not sooner. That's an incredibly valuable prospect to have in the upper minors.

Perfect post on this. You summed it up much better than I did.

[Dadbauer]

The one thing about Burnes that I am hesitant to give up on is that he's so close to the major leagues - and that is not an exaggeration. When you get to AA and have major success there, you're basically a call away from the big leagues when your AAA affiliate is Colorado Springs. I can deal with Monte Harrison being traded because even with his strides this year - he's still in his 3rd professional year and hadn't really shown anything but potential. The thing is, even with success he's still 2-3 years away. Burnes could make an impact at the ML level THIS YEAR and in a position of need.

 

 

Santana is expendable because we know what he is and it comes at a position we are stacked in - I would hate to see guy as close as Burnes be included when we still haven't seen his ceiling and he's very close to the bigs at a spot we need more of.

[Brew Crew Buster]

More recently, as Burnes is appearing in Top 100 lists, you read that he possesses stuff to be a top of the rotation starter, has excellent control, and still room to gain consistency on his curveball and change up to be weapons. He may be ALL That and a bag of peanuts.

 

I don't get how many people are describing Phillips as the perfect fit for the Brewers roster this year. Unless Santana is traded, it is highly unlikely that Phillips spends much time on the 25 man active roster unless one of the four other outfielders has a substantial stay on the DL.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The one thing about Burnes that I am hesitant to give up on is that he's so close to the major leagues - and that is not an exaggeration. When you get to AA and have major success there, you're basically a call away from the big leagues when your AAA affiliate is Colorado Springs. I can deal with Monte Harrison being traded because even with his strides this year - he's still in his 3rd professional year and hadn't really shown anything but potential. The thing is, even with success he's still 2-3 years away. Burnes could make an impact at the ML level THIS YEAR and in a position of need.

 

 

Santana is expendable because we know what he is and it comes at a position we are stacked in - I would hate to see guy as close as Burnes be included when we still haven't seen his ceiling and he's very close to the bigs at a spot we need more of.

 

I agree that the need for rotation depth is great, but when you are talking about trading Burnes as part of a package for a pitcher who has been durable and has five years of control, it mitigates that need. Granted injuries to happen, but the cupboard isn't going to be bare of potential MLB starters should one go down, either. For once, I'm actually pretty excited about the potential starting pitching depth this team has. Its high-end pitching where they fall short. There are a bunch of #3 types and a bunch of #5 types. While I get the argument that Archer is just another #3 type, I believe with his stuff and durability, along with a move to the NL, he could very well rise above that.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't get how many people are describing Phillips as the perfect fit for the Brewers roster this year. Unless Santana is traded, it is highly unlikely that Phillips spends much time on the 25 man active roster unless one of the four other outfielders has a substantial stay on the DL.

 

I think that's the assumption, if Santana is traded Phillips is the perfect 4th OF. But either way, Phillips is the only LH of all the OF remaining and can play all 3 positions at a high level defensively- that's what makes him a perfect fit.