Domingo Santana - round 2

[KeithStone53151]

Today on a afternoon radio show here in AZ, the resident Diamondbacks insider stated that the Dbacks have some parameters for deals setup in the case JD Martinez signs with Boston (or elsewhere). He stated quite firmly that the Dbacks will add an outfielder prior to Spring Training and a deal could happen within 24-48 hours from the time Martinez signs (if elsewhere). He stated the deals would be either another FA outfielder or to complete a trade for an outfielder. He stated the trade would cost the team less money and also return a better player then what is available in free agency. He didn’t name any players but that the Dbacks were holding out hope for JD Martinez with plans b and c in place, just in case. He stated the Dbacks were in a holding pattern until Martinez makes a decision. Could this involve Santana?

 

I'm not doubting the source, but what he stated could be just about anybody. JD Martinez will earn more than almost any corner outfielder in baseball, and saying via trade or free agency leaves all avenues open. Santana seems to fit the bill, I just don't see a good match with the D backs for Santana.

[pacopete4]

If trading Domingo for AJ Puk is even possible, I’m so on board.

[KeithStone53151]

If trading Domingo for AJ Puk is even possible, I’m so on board.

 

I'd rather go back in time and draft Puk instead of Ray. But I would definitely be open to that type of move. Puk is gonna be a stud, I think in time that guy will smoothen out his mechanics and be a star SP. It's already starting to happen. And Puk/Groome can be further traded for prospects at the deadline if needed...or kept and let develop into a useful player. I think Groome+ makes more sense for Santana than Puk though...I'm not sure the A's contend anytime soon.

[MadThinker88]

If trading Domingo for AJ Puk is even possible, I’m so on board.

 

Agreed. IMHO the Brewers made a mis-step when they selected Corey Ray #5 in the 2016 draft when Puk was still on the board. Puk went #6 to Oakland.

[FVBrewerFan]

He was using examples I thi k, remember he's still saying trade will be with the Tribe. I'm taking that as my dream for McKenzie is still alive.

[KeithStone53151]

He was using examples I thi k, remember he's still saying trade will be with the Tribe. I'm taking that as my dream for McKenzie is still alive.

 

To me, that sounded like the high end pitching prospect would be the alternative route. But I'm not going to deny you your dream, heck I'd take McKenzie over pretty much every pitcher we've been linked to except maybe Stroman.

[Boomer5]

Santana will be traded for MLB ready pitching otherwise the entire offseason and the current roster won't make much senses.

[TJseven7]

If Domingo stays on for the first half and can sustain his numbers from last year he will drive his own price up substantially. Anytime that someone is listed as a possible one year wonder, the jury will be out. Drop 20 dingers by mid July and you now have a truly valuable asset. It also let's you know whether Phillips has it or not for this year.

 

Problem is that if Domingo is here until July, it will be tough for Phillips to get enough ABs as 5th OF. Even with Braun playing 1st vs. lefties. Will hard to get full read on his value. Only if NL finally had a DH, Domingo would be perfect! Really hoping they finally make switch in the coming years.

 

Domingo controls own value. Like HH said, he comes out in 1st half & repeats or even better grows, his market will increase.

 

Yeah the only downside to keeping Domingo is Phillips stays in AAA. you just dont promote him unless he can play a lot. He doesnt get that chance as is.

 

As for the braun thames aguilar logjam. Cut aguilar. Problem solved.

 

Last year there was talk of, we have no bench guys. All guys play. Well broxton is a bench guy now and will rarely play. Aguilar has no spot. Thames is a platoon mate. It is what it is. Is it best use of broxton thames phillips aguilar. No. With Marvick there is no rush and you cant make a case that thames broxton or aguilar are better than yelich cain santana braun. So they dont play as much. Thems the breaks.

 

But this notion that we have to deal santana because aguilar gets squeezed out or thanes gets less ab. Say that out loud. Aguilar and thames playing more is your concern? Really?

 

Cain yelich braun shaw santana... yes please. Broxton aguilar don't belong in that group. Thames can jump in vs rhp when he can hold his own with that 5 pack.

 

Ample rest for Braun, check. True top of the order, check. Improved defense, check. Lower ks, check. Thames regression insurance, check. Take all offensive pressure off 2b ss c so you can see what villar is, pina is and not be forced to count on Arcia improving dramatically. I don't see the problem.

 

I also believe if Santana is merely close to as good (260/350 25 hr) his value still goes up. It'll show year 1 wasn't a fluke. Power and obp is a nice duo. I even expect the power to continue to rise.

[TJseven7]

 

Do not be surprised if Santana is also dealt for a high end pitching prospect who may only be a year away from major league ready. See Puk/Groome.

 

I'd be on board with that.

 

Ditto. It's still asking a lot but the team has a chance at having a homegrown (at least traded in pitching for non prospects) rotation very soon. Nelson drafted Anderson (got in segura deal) davies (parra deal) woodruff drafted... burnes drafted ortiz (lucroy) peralta (lind) hader (fiers gomez). Another arm like puk groome mckenzie (i know unlikely) etc would up those chances dramatically.

 

I'm much less adverse to dealing diaz harrison brinson yamamoto for yelich than I would be dealing burnes peralta + for archer. Take as many chances with arms as you can. If/when they click they are ungodly valuable.

 

Draft a mix. When milb bats promote trade your mlbs out for arms. Aka santana phillips situation. Pitch what you got and add a few "hidden gem" value pitchers in FA. Trust the process.

 

I want a team that sells off entrenched talent for prospects when guys are ready to graduate and the price is right. Trades in, and buys fas who are undervalued pieces. A team that's always interesting and can go for it when the pieces are in place and the market allows buyers. Its how the small market catches big market teams. Some tb cle aspects to arms. Astros cubs aspects to sticks. Team has to draft well, int sign well. Right now the teams gathered a lot of talent. It doesn't fit on a 25 man roster but that shouldn't be the initial goal. More is better value is value. Sort it out when the time comes. Time hasn't shown up yet but all the steps so far are looking real good.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think a Santana trade to DBacks for prospects could work out well. Jon Duplantier would be a likely headliner and some upside names in types like Matt Tabor and Marcus Wilson to round out the trade seems legit. Wilson would replace Harrison's loss. Duplantier could replace our loss in a particular SP trade. Tabor was a '17 draft pick riser who may bring upside in the future as a SP. He's kinda that perfect get him before he arrives type.

 

Edit Add:

Reading MLBTR and this blurb on Red Sox and JD Martinez:

“I don’t have a (timetable) on it because I really don’t know,” said Dombrowski to Rosenthal. “Perhaps if I was losing options, juggling three guys, or if we were in the starting-pitching market where there are four (top) guys, I would say, ‘Hey, I need an answer now, or I’m going to turn to this guy.’ But we’re really not in that situation.”

 

Beyond the lack of competition for Martinez on the free-agent market, Dombrowski also suggested that the trade market could yet be a viable approach. The veteran exec called it “amazing” to be hearing of so many players available in trade talks at this juncture of the offseason.

 

“At this time of year, you normally don’t get phone calls out of the blue about such-and-such being available,” said Dombrowski. “I have. I don’t know what’s going to go on.”

 

That writeup listed the DBacks as a 1 year offer and not another link to another team. Red Sox down for 5-120/125mil or 1 year DBacks.

 

It amazes me a guy that studly with the bat 5 years now can't find an AL team to give him a good deal. His problem simply is teams Baltimore/WhiteSox/Tigers/Toronto aren't pushing in '18 for wins and Texas/Seattle/Yankees don't need him with their options...Maybe if that "Ellsbury" trade occured from NY they'd afford him but otherwise he creates a logjam for them.

[adambr2]

Problem for Martinez is 1) He's 30. 2) He's a total defensive liability, so you're basically paying for a DH, and 3) GMs are much smarter and more analytical than in the past.

 

In perspective, we just paid Lorenzo Cain 5/80, which many people still thought was an overpay. They're of similar age, and analytically, Cain is and has been the more valuable player overall.

 

In an era of smarter GMs, Dombrowski is about the biggest sucker out there, so the Red Sox having the top offer at 5/125 doesn't surprise me. But Martinez is highly likely to end up being a bad contract whether it's for 5/125 or more.

[KeithStone53151]

Problem for Martinez is 1) He's 30. 2) He's a total defensive liability, so you're basically paying for a DH, and 3) GMs are much smarter and more analytical than in the past.

 

In perspective, we just paid Lorenzo Cain 5/80, which many people still thought was an overpay. They're of similar age, and analytically, Cain is and has been the more valuable player overall.

 

In an era of smarter GMs, Dombrowski is about the biggest sucker out there, so the Red Sox having the top offer at 5/125 doesn't surprise me. But Martinez is highly likely to end up being a bad contract whether it's for 5/125 or more.

 

Im not even going to remotely disagree with you about dombrowski, but I suspect Martinez would dh for the red Sox quite a bit... which would add value as he isn't losing any by stinking it up on the field.

[TJseven7]

Problem for Martinez is 1) He's 30. 2) He's a total defensive liability, so you're basically paying for a DH, and 3) GMs are much smarter and more analytical than in the past.

 

In perspective, we just paid Lorenzo Cain 5/80, which many people still thought was an overpay. They're of similar age, and analytically, Cain is and has been the more valuable player overall.

 

In an era of smarter GMs, Dombrowski is about the biggest sucker out there, so the Red Sox having the top offer at 5/125 doesn't surprise me. But Martinez is highly likely to end up being a bad contract whether it's for 5/125 or more.

 

Im not even going to remotely disagree with you about dombrowski, but I suspect Martinez would dh for the red Sox quite a bit... which would add value as he isn't losing any by stinking it up on the field.

 

But that in itself should kill his value. If you are going to pay a guy dont you want them to be multifaceted. He will DH... great. Guys who can hit aren't as rare as guys who can hit and effect the defense positively. It's part of our santana dilema. Part of the cruz dilema in days gone by and davis recently. I'd dh thames aguilar before I paid for a dh.

 

Take it 1 year farther. 125/5 on jd. Or 240/8 on machado who can play short or 3rd well. Its a no brainer. I'd value dh lowly. Maybe that era is on its way. Cross sport, its like paying a 2 down LB big money. Its a grunt position. Its just not that valuable.

 

The point that cain (at only 80/5) is more valuable than jd who wants 125/5 is solid logic in my book. 9 mil more for a guy who only makes you better 1 way is nonsense to me. I want the dh in the NL to happen and if we ever pay one I'll be irritated. Braun would fit there but we are stuck on him. Santana would be great value there. But paying a hitter only, just seems foolish.

[mrn1ceguy]

Santana will be traded for MLB ready pitching otherwise the entire offseason and the current roster won't make much senses.

 

I disagree entirely. Say we trade Santana for some top tier prospects who won't be ready in 2018. I would then put the likelyhood of signing one of the FA SP very high. Let's go Darvish for fun. Any of the "top 4" work. Let's also say we can get Walker for 2yr/16M (Seems likely). If not, Kipnis or Harrison should be relatively cheap to acquire. Or even give Villar another shot (a very good fall-back option). If we sign Walker, this means we move Aguilar & Villar. We now have the following roster:

 

C: Pina (100 games) / Vogt (62 games)

1B: Thames (81 games) / Braun (81 games)

2B: Walker (150 games) / Sogard (12 games)

SS: Arcia (150 games) / Sogard (12 games)

3B: Shaw (150 games) / Perez (12 games)

LF: Yelich (130 games) / Braun (32 games)

CF: Cain (130 games) / Yelich (22 games) / Perez (10 games)

RF: Phillips (120 games) / (Cain 22 games) / Perez (20 games)

 

SP: Darvish, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff

*SP available mid season: Nelson, Burnes, Wilkerson, Ortiz?

 

RP: Knebel, Hader, Albers, Logan, Barnes, Jeffress, Suter, Gallardo

*RP available in AAA (Williams, Houser, Guerra?)

 

I would be very happy with that lineup and see it as setup to win this year while best using all our resources. We have enough starting capable people not at full ~150 games load (Thames, Braun, Perez, Phillips, Broxton in AAA) to cover injuries just about anywhere. We have 5 quality starting pitchers (Woodruff still in the prove-it stage) with a strong batch of mid-season reinforcements. A deep bullpen with a couple strong AAA options. The main value of trading Santana for a SP would be either because Phillips shouldn't be starting or to save money on a FA SP. Otherwise, move him for a stud AA pitcher (Puk) or a stud AAA catcher (Meija) and we now have both a good 2018 squad with strong improvement ready for 2019..

[superfly]

If we keep Santana, then Braun moves needs to be moved permanently to 1B.

 

Agreed, and I think to be fair to Braun (who isn't the world's best defender) he needs to be given one position and not moved around from game to game.

 

I'm really warming to the idea of holding onto Santana and our prospects and simply signing a free agent SP, ideally one who will sign a 2-3 year deal so probably Lynn or Cobb and not Darvish or Arrieta. If we can get a solid young SP for Santana then do it, but otherwise there is no harm in holding onto him and making lesser deals for Aguilar and/or Thames to free up first base for Braun.

 

I wouldn't get too warm with it, he's probably still gone.

[ThisIsMyCrew]

I have a hard time believing that Santana, Broxton and Phillips will all be on the roster come opening day. Even with all the options to the minors available. They all have value and all have areas of concern. But with any signing or trade, 29 teams can see flaws...only takes one team to see value. That’s why it’s been great that Stearns casts such a wide net. Only takes one call for something to stick.

[monty57]

If we keep Santana, then Braun moves needs to be moved permanently to 1B.

 

Agreed, and I think to be fair to Braun (who isn't the world's best defender) he needs to be given one position and not moved around from game to game.

 

I'm really warming to the idea of holding onto Santana and our prospects and simply signing a free agent SP, ideally one who will sign a 2-3 year deal so probably Lynn or Cobb and not Darvish or Arrieta. If we can get a solid young SP for Santana then do it, but otherwise there is no harm in holding onto him and making lesser deals for Aguilar and/or Thames to free up first base for Braun.

 

I wouldn't get too warm with it, he's probably still gone.

 

I'm fine with that too, as long as it's for a good price. No need to dump him just to open up a spot. If we can get a good young MLB SP or a good package of prospects, trade him. If not, then we get to hold onto a good young player who can help us win this year and still have plenty of team control to make him appealing in trade in the future.

[And That]

I would put very good odds that something will get done between the Brewers and the Indians before opening day. And it will more than likely include Santana. Do not be surprised if Santana is also dealt for a high end pitching prospect who may only be a year away from major league ready. See Puk/Groome.

The Brewers passed on Groome in the draft for reasons other than baseball talent. I doubt they've had a change of heart, but it's possible.

 

Puk I'd absolutely be on board with. Don't know if the A's would be though.

[wallus]

Trade Santana for as much talent as you can. All of us likely would prefer a major league ready good starting pitcher but I would rather have the most talent possible. Use money to sign a starter or two if needed.

[tdcarney22]

so wait, does this mean that HH19 is back??? If so, welcome back! definitely looking forward to whatever you put out there to spurn further discussion!

[FVBrewerFan]

Santana will be traded for MLB ready pitching otherwise the entire offseason and the current roster won't make much senses.

 

Keep in mind no trade (or any move) is done in a vacuum. Sticking to my fantasyland for a minute, they could trade Santana for McKenzie. That would allow them to trade Barnes as part of the package to TB for Archer (if that's what they wanted to do.)

 

Now the OF is still set, you've added a solid SP for a few years, and gained a TOR type guy in McKenzie who's only a couple years away.

[Warning Track Power]

I would put very good odds that something will get done between the Brewers and the Indians before opening day. And it will more than likely include Santana. Do not be surprised if Santana is also dealt for a high end pitching prospect who may only be a year away from major league ready. See Puk/Groome.

Interesting. I had kind of been thinking this same thing. AJ Puk was chosen one pick after Corey Ray and I remember I was really upset about passing on him. I would do a Santana-Puk + deal. I may even consider Santana for Puk straight up.

[pacopete4]

Not to derail but it really shows how big of a whiff Ray could turn out to be. Puk has incredible K #'s so far in his short pro career. Coming from the left side, what a miss that really could turn out to be.

[Warning Track Power]

Not to derail but it really shows how big of a whiff Ray could turn out to be. Puk has incredible K #'s so far in his short pro career. Coming from the left side, what a miss that really could turn out to be.

Agreed. Thinking about it further, I would love to do Santana for Puk. Brewers sign a FA SP (Darvish/Arrieta/Cobb) and you still have Woodruff, Burnes, Puk coming...that is nice!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Not to derail but it really shows how big of a whiff Ray could turn out to be. Puk has incredible K #'s so far in his short pro career. Coming from the left side, what a miss that really could turn out to be.

 

Here's the requisite February "this is the year I turn it around" story on Corey Ray http://www.the3rdmanin.com/corey-ray-brewers-bounce-back/

 

The the Brewers' defense, Ray was considered one of the safest picks of that draft, as he had shown considerable upside. If the Brewers hadn't picked him at #5, there was no way he would have fallen more than 2-3 more spots.

 

The health of the Brewers' system needs Ray to start fulfilling his potential, and quick. If this team is going to be a contender for the next several seasons, he needs to be valuable currency for potential moves.