Domingo Santana - round 2

[Outlander]

Carter isn't available as he signed with the Angels.

[TJseven7]

Every time I see 8 man pen ideas, I think it through and the only reason it could work is perez. Its a shame he didn't get to catch last year. :-)

[brewcrewdue80]

Why do you think after 203 ip of 2.75 ball he's a 3.75? Somethimg changed for him in 2016. He had an offseason and a DL stint to lose that and he didn't. I think you are being quite pessimistic on him.

 

He only threw 141 innings last year for starters. FIP was 3.58 and his xFIP was 4.33. Some pretty good fortune as far as fly balls not translating into HRs. My 3.75 ERA prediction is much kinder than ZIPS and other predictions. I don't think not believing in Chase Anderson as a top 10 pitcher in the league is crazy. Obviously I still believe he'll be at least an above average pitcher. 3.75 ERA is pretty good for a starter these days.

 

I believe he is including the IP at end of 2016 with overall 2017. A "Longer" Sample. TJ is right, from the get go Anderson's better performance was the result of uptick in Velocity across the board for him. Full 1 to 1.6MPH on his main 4 pitches. There's the other side of velocity equation. Speaking of a #1 or 2 who's velocity ticks down and becoming #3 type results(Arrieta) Well Chase upticked from a #3/4 to a #2 borderline 1.5.

 

Just a response, as this seems to have gotten lost amid the HH "Odds" post

[brewcrewdue80]

Since people like odds.

 

Santana being traded before opening day 0-10%

Brewers getting Archer 15%

Brewers getting Cobb 100%

Brewers getting Lynn 20%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 5 year deal 15%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 1 year deal 20%

Brewers dealing one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 85%

Brewers cutting one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 95%

 

Don't yell at me. I have feelings too.

 

My guess would be Aguilar dealt and Villar waived....especially on the line being Walker signed 10%

 

Aguilar had the highest exit velocity on hits for all of the Brewers bats. So I don't think his regression will be as much as folks think. He's poor defensively and Right Handed, so with Santana staying, Braun to 1st makes him easy expendable. Thames on the better side of Platoon with OF capability(he'd be like 7th in list!) makes him more flexible.

 

Villar is hit on defensive liabilities. While his bat has potential, you're negating some of the bat always on defense. .293OB last year is the nail in the coffin. Keep with Sogard and his OB bat for lower 3 of an order(where Villar's speed won't play as much) Perez Platoon with him since your OF is set. Dubon on call when injury occurs.

 

Villar will likely make a season here or there where this idea was bad, but we are crunched with better players vying time. Sogard isn't better with bat, but defensively he makes the likely plays over Villar's poorer rates of Likely. Show some pitches battle for a walk and don't lose games defensively. And then we still have Walker hanging out there to be the better of the two.

[TJseven7]

Brewcrewdude80...You'd be correct. I don't know where I put Anderson at this point but I think its strange to see:

End of 2016

Offseason start of 2017

Oblique dl, close of 2017

 

All at 2.74 era and say yeah zips hates him so 3.75. They hated him last year too. I dont think hes a +200 ip guy. 170-180 ip is likely with health but something changed with him over the course of 2016. I think 3.2 isn't an absurd ask of him at this point.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Yep. Aguilar would be the worst use of a roster spot ever. Some people like him because he hit a few clutch homers last year, but I'm not buying it. There's no reason to believe he's good. How does a guy his age, who does nothing at a replacement level except slugging, have an. 800 OPS in over 4000 minor league pa's and still deserve a roster spot on a team with playoff aspirations? It would be like giving a spot to Matt Clark.

 

Perez as an emergency RHB 1b is a better option due to his ability to play other positions, but I think they could easily sign a slugger to replace Aguilar on a minor league deal. I vote for Chris Carter if he's not mad about the way things ended. There must be other guys like him, too.

 

Isn't a big part of the question with Aguilar where did the regular platoon splits come from? His numbers against righties aren't all that surprising given his AAA numbers and the fact that the International League is tougher to hit in, but he was a reverse platoon split guy the last couple of years in the minors. If the improvements against lefties are from some sort of repeatable adjustment, his regression might not be as big as you're predicting.

[82brewcrew82]

Personally, I'm tired of "odds". I'd like to actually see something happen.

I'm just tired of waiting. "Odds" provide a little point of interest/discussion while days go by with no Brewers trade/FA transactions.

Honestly it's not really that much different than a typical Brewers off season. Expectations got jacked up by a couple of high level acquisitions and a some folks with some educated guesses. I think it was pretty obvious a while back that Domingo was going to be back. They had been trying to trade him since basically the last day of the season. Given the trade/contract value corner OF's have garnered this winter, the low odds of trading Santana are not exactly news.

[PDCBalla]

Source says something is going to happen soon with our OF surplus. Don't know who or what is on the menu, but we will see.

 

 

Any rumblings?

[reillymcshane]

Source says something is going to happen soon with our OF surplus. Don't know who or what is on the menu, but we will see.

 

Any rumblings?

No. Nothing more. Sorry. Source is good, but doesn't communicate often. I'll post anything if it comes in.

[And That]

This is just my speculation but the timing fits - guessing that Arizona was looking at one of our outfielders, but went with Souza instead.

[pacopete4]

This is just my speculation but the timing fits - guessing that Arizona was looking at one of our outfielders, but went with Souza instead.

Your assessment makes a lot of sense. We had reports from Reilly and HH19 about the same time. Then the three-team trade happened and since then it's been silent.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is just my speculation but the timing fits - guessing that Arizona was looking at one of our outfielders, but went with Souza instead.

Your assessment makes a lot of sense. We had reports from Reilly and HH19 about the same time. Then the three-team trade happened and since then it's been silent.

 

I still expect a series of moves to happen at some point. There's just too many pieces to try to squeeze onto the roster. I would say Santana's upside is higher than Souza's, and he is younger and cheaper, at least for right now. But that deal may determine what kind of return the Brewers can expect back if they were to trade Santana.

[CheezWizHed]

Personally, I'm tired of "odds". I'd like to actually see something happen.

I'm just tired of waiting. "Odds" provide a little point of interest/discussion while days go by with no Brewers trade/FA transactions.

Honestly it's not really that much different than a typical Brewers off season. Expectations got jacked up by a couple of high level acquisitions and a some folks with some educated guesses. I think it was pretty obvious a while back that Domingo was going to be back. They had been trying to trade him since basically the last day of the season. Given the trade/contract value corner OF's have garnered this winter, the low odds of trading Santana are not exactly news.

 

I can't think of a single offseason like this one. Not only have the Brewers been busy in the trade market, but also rumors of big FA signings... Then tie that together with so many fairly large FAs remaining unsigned into ST. Yeah, this one is unique.

[82brewcrew82]

I can't think of a single offseason like this one. Not only have the Brewers been busy in the trade market, but also rumors of big FA signings... Then tie that together with so many fairly large FAs remaining unsigned into ST. Yeah, this one is unique.

Yeah, we all get that. I was referring to the post I quoted about long stretches or inactivity.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Considering what Tampa got for Souza what would people think of a return of Nolan Jones and Sam Hentges from the Indians for Santana? Not the marquee return many of us were initially looking for but I do like both those guys.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Nolan Jones is a fine prospect but he's only 19 and far from a sure thing.

 

Sam Hentges is not in any Indians Top 10 prospect list. In fact, he's not in John Sickels Top 20 Indians prospects. In fact, he's not even listed in Prospect1500.com's Top 50 Indians prospects.

 

I have no problem trading Domingo to "re-stock" the farm rather than getting an-MLB ready talent as a headliner, however, I think the Brewers could get a much better return than that.

 

In fact, I really feel that it would behoove them to target a near-ready MLB pitching prospect with a higher ceiling than the mid-rotation types that are currently in the Brewers system (Burnes, Ortiz, Woodruff, etc.)

[Jose Cardenal1]

In fact, I really feel that it would behoove them to target a near-ready MLB pitching prospect with a higher ceiling

 

Isn't that what we all want? But it doesn't seem like that will be available to us for Santana. Higher Ceiling in A ball sure. Low ceiling in AAA/AA fine. But your not going to get High Ceiling at AAA/AA. Teams are throwing those around like manhole covers.

 

Also regarding Hentges, MLB Pipeline has him as #17 on their list. Was a HS 4th rd pick who missed time because of TJ surgery. Think of him as a Nathan Kirby if Kirby had actually pitched some last year.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nolan Jones is a fine prospect but he's only 19 and far from a sure thing.

 

Sam Hentges is not in any Indians Top 10 prospect list. In fact, he's not in John Sickels Top 20 Indians prospects. In fact, he's not even listed in Prospect1500.com's Top 50 Indians prospects.

 

I have no problem trading Domingo to "re-stock" the farm rather than getting an-MLB ready talent as a headliner, however, I think the Brewers could get a much better return than that.

 

In fact, I really feel that it would behoove them to target a near-ready MLB pitching prospect with a higher ceiling than the mid-rotation types that are currently in the Brewers system (Burnes, Ortiz, Woodruff, etc.)

 

I think if those types of guys were available, Santana would be gone. Its obvious at this point that the Brewers are valuing him higher than the teams where he's a potential fit. Potential TOR starters are gold, and typically only go in deadline deals for stars.

[DocLuna7]

Nolan Jones is a fine prospect but he's only 19 and far from a sure thing.

 

Sam Hentges is not in any Indians Top 10 prospect list. In fact, he's not in John Sickels Top 20 Indians prospects. In fact, he's not even listed in Prospect1500.com's Top 50 Indians prospects.

 

I have no problem trading Domingo to "re-stock" the farm rather than getting an-MLB ready talent as a headliner, however, I think the Brewers could get a much better return than that.

 

In fact, I really feel that it would behoove them to target a near-ready MLB pitching prospect with a higher ceiling than the mid-rotation types that are currently in the Brewers system (Burnes, Ortiz, Woodruff, etc.)

 

Just curious, but what is it about Burns’s minor league numbers that suggests he doesn’t at least have the potential to be a TOR guy some day?

[tmwiese55]

I think it's that if someone doesn't throw 97 or above they can't be considered a TOR prospect. ETA: I don't agree with that, I'm saying that is the notion though

[Oldcity]

The list of pitchers with a higher ceiling than Burnes who are also close to the big leagues is probably in single digits.

[TURBO]

Steven Souza Jr. down until Mid May possibly. Does this open up some talks with AZ about trading Santana?

[82brewcrew82]

I doubt it.

[Eye Black]

Indians starting RF Lonnie Chisenhall is headed to the DL with a right calf injury. It was also a right calf injury that caused him to miss a significant portion of the season last year. It appears they are going to bring Tyler Naquin back to the majors.

 

Maybe the Indians aren’t that into him, but it seems apparent Santana’s right-handed power bat would be an upgrade for the Indians current OF mix.

[JohnBriggs12]

Indians starting RF Lonnie Chisenhall is headed to the DL with a right calf injury. It was also a right calf injury that caused him to miss a significant portion of the season last year. It appears they are going to bring Tyler Naquin back to the majors.

 

Maybe the Indians aren’t that into him, but it seems apparent Santana’s right-handed power bat would be an upgrade for the Indians current OF mix.

 

Nine games into the season, Santana is slugging .310 and has one extra base hit. Teams wary that he could repeat his 2017 are still wary.