Domingo Santana - round 2

[liveforoctober]

Re: Keon Broxton, I have a question for those of you who might know better than me.

 

I'm in agreement his trade value is really low right now and our return on him would be insignificant. Couldn't it help his trade value to send him to AAA for the first half of the year and let him produce? If he can hit and show his power/speed/defense trifecta in the minors for 3 months - wouldn't that make him much more attractive to someone who would take a chance he has turned things around?

 

I know this is a Santana thread, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread on Keon - and considering our log jam in the outfield currently ... this seemed relevant enough.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Not saying he's not good or won't be, but those superstar types like he's being portrayed here tend to be up or forcing teams hands about this age while he sounds at least a year or two off.

 

And of course I'd gladly take him back here in a trade that makes sense, but giving up 3 proven MLB players..

 

I mean, you're right about him not being that true superstar type, and you don't give up 3 guys in their prime who had 3-4 WAR last year for a guy like him. But you're kind of missing the whole point, which is that McKenzie probably is that kind of prospect.

 

You don't even mention him, which makes me wonder if you realize the original suggestion was McKenzie + Mejia for Santana, Shaw, and Knebel - an outside the box suggestion I made precisely because I agree that Mejia alone is not enough for 2 of those guys, let alone 3 of them. I see Mejia as a little more valuable than 1 of those guys and McKenzie about as valuable as 2 of them and I'd pull the trigger if it were up to me, but it's a win-win either way because of the great work Stearns has done.

 

Anything less than Buster Posey or Neck Tattoo status, make Mejia a bust on your trade proposal. McKenzie is 2 or more years from a ML team. Remove 10WAR of players for 0 WAR return is just stupid. Calling it flat out as it is. Posey Mejia is not .796 OPS vs .969OPS. Neck Tattoo he is not 29% CS vs 45% CS. Heck, Lucroy was .835OPS and 42% CS in the minors(never top 100 rank)

 

Why Mejia is in the top 10-20 of prospects is so confusing, but it happens to be where he's at. Now, the number of top 20 catchers over the years actually being good has been absolutely disgusting results. Travis D'Arnaud, Mike Zunino, Gary Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, and Austin Hedges. Mejia had an epic hitting streak and he's riding such a wave of expectations but look, Catchers are terrible. They take a beating. Their seasons go inconsistent unless you're Buster Posey. There's nothing to Mejia's minors stats that resembles he's a Buster Posey in the making. O-V-E-R-R-A-T-E-D.

McKenzie may well turn out to be a TOR. But he's 2 years away on his current Arc with maybe 1+ and Starts during the 2019 season. Elite RP+ 2 EveryDay starter worthy ML players aren't being sold off for 2 Prospects. I said I'd maybe part with Kneble for these 2. That's typically how trades work. a ML player=2 or more prospects. You're taking AS type of players in '17 and trading 3 of them for 2 prospects.

 

I'd guess if this was offered to Cleveland, they'd say here's Kipnis and all the money he's paid, done thanks suckers.

[DR28]

Wow, we finally have a legit closer, 3B and people want them traded!!

 

Come on.

[PeaveyFury]

Wow, we finally have a legit closer, 3B and people want them traded!!

 

Come on.

 

Though I am very much on your side of this debate, I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder if we'll wish in September that we had sold high on one or more of our '2017 breakout' players. Problem is, we likely won't know who that should be until we do.

[pacopete4]

Wow, we finally have a legit closer, 3B and people want them traded!!

 

Come on.

You only have them, until you don't.

[Dadbauer]

Rays just signed Gomez - if they DID need an outfielder at the ML level, they don't anymore. Santana watch is down to just Cleveland and Oakland at this point?

[TURBO]

I just hope we do not sell low on Santana, even though I trust that Stearns would not do that.

 

Somebody will pay up for his bat at some point, until that time comes, I'm happy to keep him right here in Milwaukee.

[DR28]

Just keep him now... Figure out Braun/Thames/Aguilar.

[DR28]

Rays just signed Gomez - if they DID need an outfielder at the ML level, they don't anymore. Santana watch is down to just Cleveland and Oakland at this point?

 

Salazar is already hurt.

 

Cotton, no thanks... I highly doubt they would deal Manaea.

[DR28]

Sign Cobb, Walker and bring on OD!!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Jeffress

Logan

Suter/Miley/Gallardo

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very solid rotation & bullpen, deep lineup... Definitely can compete!

[brewcrew42]

Sign Cobb, Walker and bring on OD!!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Jeffress

Logan

Suter/Miley/Gallardo

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very solid rotation & bullpen, deep lineup... Definitely can compete!

 

I don't think that rotation is good enough to compete with the Cubs. Honestly, I think it would put us around 86 wins, and the exact same position we were in last year. Cobb doesn't move the needle at all IMO. That rotation lacks firepower at the top. Should Lester regain form, the Cubs' top 3 pitchers would be better than our best. Only adding Cobb to the rotation would be a disappointment in my book. I would like him as the 2nd addition to the rotation.

[trwi7]

Re: Keon Broxton, I have a question for those of you who might know better than me.

 

I'm in agreement his trade value is really low right now and our return on him would be insignificant. Couldn't it help his trade value to send him to AAA for the first half of the year and let him produce? If he can hit and show his power/speed/defense trifecta in the minors for 3 months - wouldn't that make him much more attractive to someone who would take a chance he has turned things around?

 

I know this is a Santana thread, but I didn't want to start a whole new thread on Keon - and considering our log jam in the outfield currently ... this seemed relevant enough.

 

I don't think any team is going to be impressed with a 27/28 year old hitting in Colorado Springs for a few months when they have 700 plate appearances of major league data and saw him regress across the board last year.

[MrTPlush]

You don’t need firepower at the top of a rotation to win game, hello 2011 Brewers. Adding a starter could give us a ridiculously deep rotation with really good 4/5/6 guys. That would make up for any lack of firepower. Non flashy things win games to.

[mrn1ceguy]

Sign Cobb, Walker and bring on OD!!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Jeffress

Logan

Suter/Miley/Gallardo

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very solid rotation & bullpen, deep lineup... Definitely can compete!

 

I don't think that rotation is good enough to compete with the Cubs. Honestly, I think it would put us around 86 wins, and the exact same position we were in last year. Cobb doesn't move the needle at all IMO. That rotation lacks firepower at the top. Should Lester regain form, the Cubs' top 3 pitchers would be better than our best. Only adding Cobb to the rotation would be a disappointment in my book. I would like him as the 2nd addition to the rotation.

 

Cobb would be the 2nd addition (Chacin was the 1st). We had a top ten rotation last year. We shouldn't be using resources to get 3 new Starting Pitchers when we had a top ten rotation. One to fill in for the injured Neslon - agreed. A second to upgrade the peralta/garza/suter/guerra spot - agreed if Hader is bullpen only (seems like it). A third to push out promising rookie (Woodruff), block promissing minor leaguer (Burnes) and to relegate another starter to the bullpen (Chacin) when Nelson comes back - waste of resources. At a certain point, there is significant diminishing returns. We also have significant injury depth in the 6th/7th/8th starter (someone who can be in the bullpen or in AAA) in Suter, Guerra, Wilkerson, Burnes.

[jjfanec]

Sign Cobb, Walker and bring on OD!!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Jeffress

Logan

Suter/Miley/Gallardo

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very solid rotation & bullpen, deep lineup... Definitely can compete!

 

I don't think that rotation is good enough to compete with the Cubs. Honestly, I think it would put us around 86 wins, and the exact same position we were in last year. Cobb doesn't move the needle at all IMO. That rotation lacks firepower at the top. Should Lester regain form, the Cubs' top 3 pitchers would be better than our best. Only adding Cobb to the rotation would be a disappointment in my book. I would like him as the 2nd addition to the rotation.

 

Not sure where you get that from but Chase Anderson and Jimmy Nelson both put up better numbers than any Cub pitcher last year when you look at WAR and other stats. Darvish was right near them (even though I know he is better pointing out last year stats). In fact Davies was better than Quintana and others according to quite a few stats. Not saying the Brewers guys are for sure better but they are underrated by many here and I get that because they are younger and not completely proven.

 

Here is a link to show just how good the Brewers top 3 really were - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2735370-mlb-position-power-rankings-brs-final-top-80-starting-pitchers-of-2017

[brewcrew42]

Sign Cobb, Walker and bring on OD!!

 

Anderson

Cobb

Davies

Chacin

Woodruff

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Barnes

Jeffress

Logan

Suter/Miley/Gallardo

 

Cain

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Santana

Walker

Pina

Arcia

 

Very solid rotation & bullpen, deep lineup... Definitely can compete!

 

I don't think that rotation is good enough to compete with the Cubs. Honestly, I think it would put us around 86 wins, and the exact same position we were in last year. Cobb doesn't move the needle at all IMO. That rotation lacks firepower at the top. Should Lester regain form, the Cubs' top 3 pitchers would be better than our best. Only adding Cobb to the rotation would be a disappointment in my book. I would like him as the 2nd addition to the rotation.

 

Cobb would be the 2nd addition (Chacin was the 1st). We had a top ten rotation last year. We shouldn't be using resources to get 3 new Starting Pitchers when we had a top ten rotation. One to fill in for the injured Neslon - agreed. A second to upgrade the peralta/garza/suter/guerra spot - agreed if Hader is bullpen only (seems like it). A third to push out promising rookie (Woodruff), block promissing minor leaguer (Burnes) and to relegate another starter to the bullpen (Chacin) when Nelson comes back - waste of resources. At a certain point, there is significant diminishing returns. We also have significant injury depth in the 6th/7th/8th starter (someone who can be in the bullpen or in AAA) in Suter, Guerra, Wilkerson, Burnes.

 

I don't believe Anderson will replicate last season. Good pitcher with a 3.75 ERA sounds about right. No Nelson and who knows how he is when he returns. Right now I'd rank our rotation around 15th in the league. Middle of the pack. Cobb would probably push it to maybe 12th or 13th. If we're trying to win 86 games again, I think we'd be good with some improved OF production (assuming everyone else somewhat replicates last year). If we're trying to win 90 games and compete for the division, I do think we need a TOR type of pitcher or at least a #2 kind of guy.

[jjfanec]

 

I don't believe Anderson will replicate last season. Good pitcher with a 3.75 ERA sounds about right. No Nelson and who knows how he is when he returns. Right now I'd rank our rotation around 15th in the league. Middle of the pack. Cobb would probably push it to maybe 12th or 13th. If we're trying to win 86 games again, I think we'd be good with some improved OF production (assuming everyone else somewhat replicates last year). If we're trying to win 90 games and compete for the division, I do think we need a TOR type of pitcher or at least a #2 kind of guy.

 

Not sure why Anderson wont be able to repeat last year. He was actually really good the second half of 2016 as well. It wasnt just a one year thing. Johnson just said he expects Nelson back around June so that seems likely he is with the team for at least the 2nd half of the season if not more.

 

This team won 86 games last year with a worse lineup and worse rotation (without adding another starter). Chacin is so much better than Garza. Not sure why the team as it stands with Yelich and Cain cant push to win 90 games. Add another solid starter like Arrieta or Cobb and then more.

 

What held this team back down the stretch was the lineup. That has been rehauled in a big way. There is a lot of depth and talent there. They are a 2nd baseman away from no weak spots. The bullpen is solid as well.

 

Why would assume Lester and is going to bounce back and Quintana is going to be better than last year but assume the Brewers starters who were better or equal in Anderson and Davies will get worse? Especially when Anderson and Davies are younger

[TJseven7]

Why do you think after 203 ip of 2.75 ball he's a 3.75? Somethimg changed for him in 2016. He had an offseason and a DL stint to lose that and he didn't. I think you are being quite pessimistic on him.

[jjfanec]

Why do you think after 203 ip of 2.75 ball he's a 3.75? Somethimg changed for him in 2016. He had an offseason and a DL stint to lose that and he didn't. I think you are being quite pessimistic on him.

 

I have noticed a section of our fanbase who is quite pessimistic on Anderson and Davies to an extent. It is kind of strange.

 

Back to Santana I dont think there is anyway he gets dealt right now and I am actually pretty on board with that. If Braun can play first the corner OF and 1B spots have a ton of depth. Thames started 18 games in the OF last year and could provide depth there at 1B obviously.

[TJseven7]

Why do you think after 203 ip of 2.75 ball he's a 3.75? Somethimg changed for him in 2016. He had an offseason and a DL stint to lose that and he didn't. I think you are being quite pessimistic on him.

 

I have noticed a section of our fanbase who is quite pessimistic on Anderson and Davies to an extent. It is kind of strange.

 

Back to Santana I dont think there is anyway he gets dealt right now and I am actually pretty on board with that. If Braun can play first the corner OF and 1B spots have a ton of depth. Thames started 18 games in the OF last year and could provide depth there at 1B obviously.

 

I like the guys who get looked at cross-eyed by pessimists. They get under valued and are added cheaper than they should be. Anderson Davies expected to regress at every turn, then don't and Chacins just a guy. The only downside is that their trade value isn't stupidly high like some flashier names who don't produce as well. With our broken pen, and the weak 4-5 spots in the rotation, these guys had a top 9 era league wide last year. Better than houston.

 

I think the domingo low balling is much more genuine. Teams aren't valuing corner OFs. His defense is an actual issue. I wanted to keep him all along. I had a day or so where I kinda realized he wasn't going to fetch a ton and realized you'd get about the same war from phillips broxton platoon where I thought might as well trade him for 1 good prospect arm and a ticket. Like duplantier or gohara but after seeing the souza bag o balls trade I'd rather keep him and hope there's more power there. We've been really good at selling low on the Nelson Cruz, Davis types. Might as well keep one for once. His bat in the 5 hole covers for a lot of question marks at the 6-8 spots. Being in position to cover nearly every 1-5 ab with 6 guys in their best matchup to succeed (only missing some games of rest from shaw) could propel that offebse a long way.

[HighHeat19]

Since people like odds.

 

Santana being traded before opening day 0-10%

Brewers getting Archer 15%

Brewers getting Cobb 100%

Brewers getting Lynn 20%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 5 year deal 15%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 1 year deal 20%

Brewers dealing one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 85%

Brewers cutting one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 95%

 

Don't yell at me. I have feelings too.

[bill hAll Star]

Since people like odds.

 

Santana being traded before opening day 0-10%

Brewers getting Archer 15%

Brewers getting Cobb 100%

Brewers getting Lynn 20%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 5 year deal 15%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 1 year deal 20%

Brewers dealing one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 85%

Brewers cutting one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 95%

 

Don't yell at me. I have feelings too.

 

So if Cobb is 100%, does that mean they may add one of those other guys in addition to Cobb? I would tend to assume that they wouldn't add Lynn after signing Cobb so I'll assume Cobb is 95% and Lynn is a smaller percent, but I get the general idea here.

[pacopete4]

Since people like odds.

 

Santana being traded before opening day 0-10%

Brewers getting Archer 15%

Brewers getting Cobb 100%

Brewers getting Lynn 20%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 5 year deal 15%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 1 year deal 20%

Brewers dealing one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 85%

Brewers cutting one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 95%

 

Don't yell at me. I have feelings too.

 

When you say cutting one of and list Broxton... I'd hope you would just mean that he would be going to AAA.

[DR28]

Since people like odds.

 

Santana being traded before opening day 0-10%

Brewers getting Archer 15%

Brewers getting Cobb 100%

Brewers getting Lynn 20%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 5 year deal 15%

Brewers getting Arrieta on a 1 year deal 20%

Brewers dealing one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 85%

Brewers cutting one of Aguilar, Broxton, Perez or Villar 95%

 

Don't yell at me. I have feelings too.

 

Does Cobb sign before end of week?

[brewcrew42]

Why do you think after 203 ip of 2.75 ball he's a 3.75? Somethimg changed for him in 2016. He had an offseason and a DL stint to lose that and he didn't. I think you are being quite pessimistic on him.

 

He only threw 141 innings last year for starters. FIP was 3.58 and his xFIP was 4.33. Some pretty good fortune as far as fly balls not translating into HRs. My 3.75 ERA prediction is much kinder than ZIPS and other predictions. I don't think not believing in Chase Anderson as a top 10 pitcher in the league is crazy. Obviously I still believe he'll be at least an above average pitcher. 3.75 ERA is pretty good for a starter these days.