Domingo Santana - round 2

[pacopete4]

He was worse than sogard villar combined last year. He doesn't look impressive in any way. I'm confused by the love.

 

Huh? In what way? Sogard had a hot streak that inflated his stats. Villar was downright awful.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Dude,

 

Big League Regulars >>>>>> prospects. Every single time. If you believe guys like Santana, Shaw and Knebel are all of a sudden going to fall off a cliff, I'm going to vehemently disagree. Sure, Villar regressed. Guerra was hurt, so that comparison can be tossed. But yes, going into last season, Villar was considered a building block and yes, a high-end big leaguer.

 

That's rather unreasonable. Every big league regular was once just a prospect. There are much better ways to evaluate talent than just looking at what a guy did in his first full season. Unless >>>>>> means more experienced, it's a silly thing to pass off as fact.

 

Sticking to your guns with Villar doesn't help your case. And it doesn't come down to "falling off a cliff", despite your insistence on polarizing the issues involved. It comes down to the probability that Mejia and McKenzie will out-produce Knebel, Santana, and Shaw for significantly less money during a period when the Brewers are more likely to be in contention. It's a continuum of possibilities, not a matter of black and white as you present it.

 

Santana has plenty of issues that should remind anyone with a sense of caution and tempered enthusiasm of Villar. High BABIP, terrible defense, lots of strikeouts, and mental lapses.

Knebel's walk rate is way too high for an elite closer and he played with fire all year.

I like Shaw, but he was never anything but an ordinary prospect compared to Mejia and McKenzie and he had one really good year in his prime (as so many average regulars do), just one year after being demoted on a team that desperately needed a 3b.

 

What I mean is that every team in the league values major league players more than prospects. When was the last time you saw multiple major league pieces traded for a prospect? High end prospects are traded all the time for average major league players. The fact is prospects flame out at a higher rate than they succeed. Heck, if you need proof, just go back and look at the 2012 Top 100 Prospects. Sure, there are a few nice hits in that group, but more misses. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

[brewcrewdue80]

Id ask for Mejia and McKenzie for Knebel...maybe.

 

Why would Cleveland do that? Knebel isn't that proven of a reliever and he is about to get more expensive.

 

So many posts have happened since this but CoolHandluke no blue font.

 

A good season by Thornburg netted Shaw, Dubon, Josh Pennington, and an 18yr old lottery ticket.

 

67 IP 2.15 ERA 2.83 Fip 5.1Hits/9 0.8HR/9 3.4BBs/9 12.1k/9 ERA+199 4 years of control

 

Knebel last year

76IP 1.78 ERA 2.53Fip 5.7Hits/9 0.7HR/9 4.7BBs/9 14.9K/9 ERA+248! 5 years of control.

 

Cody Allen and Andrew Miller lost Bryan Shaw. Both have 1 year left on contract. Cleveland is about to have a hole at the end of their Bullpen.

 

 

Knebel performed at an Aroldis Chapman level last year, with 5 years of control remaining.

 

A Rental trade of Chapman Acquired Torres a top 10 prospect, Billy Mckinley who was top 100 at that time, a throw in and a lottery ticket. Half a season-No QO ability.

 

Knebel has that beat right now by quite a lot without a criminal charge against him like Chapman's 1st trade.

 

There's the Ken Giles trade which worked for Houston last year. Appel/Velasquez a SP prospect and RP prospect. There's your maybe deal. Appel is out of baseball, Velasquez was well regarded top 100 and he's still working on becoming that hype(something I see McKenzie being) Now we aren't even getting the 2 other prospects.

 

Knebel is such a help to this team, I'd think idea of Mejia/McKenzie would hurt us for the next 2 years at minimum before the team receives the rewards from Mejia or McKenzie.

 

Name off top RPs who can post Knebel stats of last season? Kimbrel, Miller, and Jansen? Chapman didn't have as good a year. Giles? Maybe Osuna?

 

A well regarded, not ML ready Catcher and an A Ball thus far SP prospect has a lot to go before making a team that's trying to compete now.

 

Cleveland would solve a huge future hole and elite loss to a WS competing roster. That's plenty of time to find replacements for Mejia/McKenzie while immediately making WS bound seem likely.

[TJseven7]

He was worse than sogard villar combined last year. He doesn't look impressive in any way. I'm confused by the love.

 

Huh? In what way? Sogard had a hot streak that inflated his stats. Villar was downright awful.

 

Correct. He's racking up scooter stats that got scooter released.

[CheezWizHed]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

 

I found it amusing at how many Brewer connections there were (Odorizzi, Thornburg, Peralta, Yelich, Nick Franklin, Christian Bethancourt), but even more amusing were all the names that BF.net bantered about as trade rumors, specifically failed prospects to resurrect: Profar, Bundy, Wil Myers, Zach Wheeler, Mike Olt, Puig.

 

Even Archer is in there...

[TJseven7]

Crazy how many actually did something. I thought prospects rarely pan put.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Crazy how many actually did something. I thought prospects rarely pan put.

 

I think anyone who is a Top 100 prospect should be expected to eventually reach the majors. There are not many superstars on that list, though.

[pacopete4]

He was worse than sogard villar combined last year. He doesn't look impressive in any way. I'm confused by the love.

 

Huh? In what way? Sogard had a hot streak that inflated his stats. Villar was downright awful.

 

Correct. He's racking up scooter stats that got scooter released.

 

And look what Scooter did a year ago after switching teams. You twist and then just about every statement you make. It’s unreal.

[TooLiveBrew]

And look what Scooter did a year ago after switching teams. You twist and then just about every statement you make. It’s unreal.

Keep on topic & stay civil please, folks. No more ad hominem stuff.

[brewerhuman]

Source says something is going to happen soon with our OF surplus. Don't know who or what is on the menu, but we will see.

 

Don't know if anyone has asked so my apologies if I'm repeating, but are we assuming that the 'soon' was NOT passed by with the 3-team deal? Just looking for your opinion; I doubt your source would be able to clarify.

[MrTPlush]

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

 

I found it amusing at how many Brewer connections there were (Odorizzi, Thornburg, Peralta, Yelich, Nick Franklin, Christian Bethancourt), but even more amusing were all the names that BF.net bantered about as trade rumors, specifically failed prospects to resurrect: Profar, Bundy, Wil Myers, Zach Wheeler, Mike Olt, Puig.

 

Even Archer is in there...

 

Mike Olt #NeverForget

[coolhandluke121]

 

What I mean is that every team in the league values major league players more than prospects. When was the last time you saw multiple major league pieces traded for a prospect? High end prospects are traded all the time for average major league players. The fact is prospects flame out at a higher rate than they succeed. Heck, if you need proof, just go back and look at the 2012 Top 100 Prospects. Sure, there are a few nice hits in that group, but more misses. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

 

But you could make a strong case that teams are finally realizing that it's a mistake to overvalue current big leaguers compared to top prospects, and the first teams to act on this realization will have an advantage similar to what the A's had when they were the first team to value OBP so highly.

 

Look at so many of the best teams right now. They got where they are by waiting for their prospects to pan out, instead of yielding to the temptation to trade them for immediate returns. And so many of the mediocre teams have terrible farm systems and bloated payrolls because they were too impatient.

 

Are you familiar with the concept of expected value? The value of each outcome has to be weighed against the likelihood of that outcome occurring. The expected value of betting $1 (with 5:1 odds) on rolling a 1 on a number cube is $1. The expected value of betting $1 on flipping a coin with 1:1 odds and getting heads is also $1. There's more variability for the number cube, since you could win $5 on a roll, but in the end, thanks to the law of large numbers, both games are basically neutral if you play enough.

 

It's the same with prospects vs. big leaguers. Prospects might have more variability and different odds, but they often have higher potential payouts. And the best prospects have high enough upside and low enough odds of busting that they definitely have higher expected value than guys like Knebel, Shaw, and Santana - who themselves, by the way, still have non-negligible odds of busting, despite your eagerness to anoint them as proven good big leaguers on the basis of one year of success for each of them.

 

McKenzie and Mejia could bust, but they definitely have more expected value than those 3. You could certainly lose a trade like this, but if you consistently are giving prospects their proper value instead of being biased in favor of what helps you most now, you will have consistent success in the long run.

[coolhandluke121]

Crazy how many actually did something. I thought prospects rarely pan put.

 

I think anyone who is a Top 100 prospect should be expected to eventually reach the majors. There are not many superstars on that list, though.

 

How about a list of guys who had a really good year in their first full season but weren't top prospects like Mejia and McKenzie? How many of those would jump out at you as proven above average major league regulars?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Crazy how many actually did something. I thought prospects rarely pan put.

 

I think anyone who is a Top 100 prospect should be expected to eventually reach the majors. There are not many superstars on that list, though.

 

How about a list of guys who had a really good year in their first full season but weren't top prospects like Mejia and McKenzie? How many of those would jump out at you as proven above average major league regulars?

 

LOL, I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I would certainly like to see that list, though.

[tmwiese55]

At age 22 in AA former Brewers great Angel Solome hit 360/415 with 13 HRs. Better than what Mejia did. As good of a prospect as he is, he's still a prospect. C prospects especially seem to flame out more than anyone as it's so hard to maintain that hitting while playing C. Then if they move from C they're not really anything special as a hitter. I wonder why Mejia isn't supposed to be their starter this year if he's this good? I don't know maybe he is, I'm not an expert on the Indians but at his age and supposed pedigree he should be up this year.

 

Time to share some info/ insight.

1) Yan Gomes & Roberto Perez have multi year contracts in place to catch for Cleveland. As a small market team it is not in their nature to just bench/ release chunks of salary. They will explore ways to maximize the assets which includes exploring trades & increasing a player's position flexibility.

 

2) Cleveland values the D behind the plate more than the offensive the player could bring at that spot. Offense is seen as a bonus.

 

3) Mejia has not even played a game at AAA yet. While his bat is believed to be ready, his D can use more work/ seasoning especially as Cleveland is a heavy favorite to win its division/ make the post-season. In a rebuilding spot (like Miami if JT Realmuto was gone), he could easily break camp or be a June call up.

 

4) Comparing/ Contrasting the numbers of the Age 22 season is inaccurate. Mejia turned 22 in October 2017 so he played AA at age 21 & made his MLB debut already. Additionally the Southern League (Huntsville) is more of an offensive league then the Eastern League (Akron).

 

5) Salome got rated as a top 100 prospect 1 time (Baseball Prospectus #79 before start of the 2009 season). 2018 is the 2nd year Mejia is being rated inside the top 50 by multiple sources. Someone (other than fans like us) must feel Mejia has a great likelihood to succeed in the majors.

 

Thanks for the info on the Indians, like I said I didn't really know the story.

 

And for Salome, it was just an example right in front of all of us how easily prospects flop, not some kind of direct comparison of the two. Just think how highly we and the league would have valued him at that point and then he did nothing.

 

So, your knowledgeable info on the Indians situation and Mejia leads my crackpot opinion to be that he might be being a touch overvalued in this discussion on here. While a great prospect, at age 22 he's not beating down the doors of MLB yet. Not saying he's not good or won't be, but those superstar types like he's being portrayed here tend to be up or forcing teams hands about this age while he sounds at least a year or two off. That combined with you saying his D isn't up to par is a bit of a flag for a C prospect, as I mentioned in a different post if a good hitting C can't hack it at C, often when he switches positions he's just another guy offensively, the O isn't as large of an advantage at other spots. That's my two cents expert internet jabroni opinion/assessment and I'm not saying I'm right or want to get in any debate on it. And of course I'd gladly take him back here in a trade that makes sense, but giving up 3 proven MLB players..

[coolhandluke121]

LOL, I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I would certainly like to see that list, though.

 

It's a moot point because it won't happen and I'm fine with it, but McKenzie + Mejia would be absolutely unbelievable value for Knebel, Santana, and Shaw. Cleveland probably hangs up the phone if you ask for just one of them with those 3 players at this time last year.

 

There's nothing wrong with keeping this team together right now, but it's silly to suggest I'm over-valuing prospects. If those 3 do it again this year, then they'll be a lot closer to having the trade value you're suggesting.

[pacopete4]

LOL, I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree on this one. I would certainly like to see that list, though.

 

It's a moot point because it won't happen and I'm fine with it, but McKenzie + Mejia would be absolutely unbelievable value for Knebel, Santana, and Shaw. Cleveland probably hangs up the phone if you ask for just one of them with those 3 players at this time last year.

 

There's nothing wrong with keeping this team together right now, but it's silly to suggest I'm over-valuing prospects. If those 3 do it again this year, then they'll be a lot closer to having the trade value you're suggesting.

 

Eh, you might be. The three have pretty good value and would help them win a WS right now. McKenzie and Meija might never be anything to anyone. I could see this deal getting done.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Not saying he's not good or won't be, but those superstar types like he's being portrayed here tend to be up or forcing teams hands about this age while he sounds at least a year or two off.

 

And of course I'd gladly take him back here in a trade that makes sense, but giving up 3 proven MLB players..

 

I mean, you're right about him not being that true superstar type, and you don't give up 3 guys in their prime who had 3-4 WAR last year for a guy like him. But you're kind of missing the whole point, which is that McKenzie probably is that kind of prospect.

 

You don't even mention him, which makes me wonder if you realize the original suggestion was McKenzie + Mejia for Santana, Shaw, and Knebel - an outside the box suggestion I made precisely because I agree that Mejia alone is not enough for 2 of those guys, let alone 3 of them. I see Mejia as a little more valuable than 1 of those guys and McKenzie about as valuable as 2 of them and I'd pull the trigger if it were up to me, but it's a win-win either way because of the great work Stearns has done.

[tmwiese55]

Still, it's 3 proven MLB players all controlled for several more years for two guys who still have a large shot at doing nothing in MLB. I don't recall ever seeing a trade of this nature. Any prospect that would be worth that value or is that big of a lock to be star such as a Harper/Trout/Strasburg etc would never be traded no matter what you gave up. That said, just because somethings never been done before doesn't mean it shouldn't be, maybe that could be the moneyball or creative thinking that works out, who knows. Not about to say I'm right (in spite of how many on here are adamant that they know it all or are experts about trade values, no one really knows), just that I'd be really surprised if those were the trade values out there in the real world just because we've never seen something like this happen before (not based off my expert internet prospect evaluation or anything like that).

[TURBO]

So you are giving away our closer, our 3B and RF, with no replacement for 3B and closer? I get it, you want back 2 POSSIBLE future studs, but where would that leave our playoff chances this year? I'm pretty sure we didn't add Cain for all that $ and Yelich for all those prospects so we can trade away our chance at a playoff run this year...

 

We could probably absorb the loss at RF, but not 3B and we have no one who would obviously step in at closer.

[Mudville9]

Not that I agree with this at all, but we might be able to sign Moose and trade for Colome.

[coolhandluke121]

So you are giving away our closer, our 3B and RF, with no replacement for 3B and closer? I get it, you want back 2 POSSIBLE future studs, but where would that leave our playoff chances this year? I'm pretty sure we didn't add Cain for all that $ and Yelich for all those prospects so we can trade away our chance at a playoff run this year...

 

We could probably absorb the loss at RF, but not 3B and we have no one who would obviously step in at closer.

 

That's exactly the type of thinking that prevents you from ever innovating and coming up with a strategy that could give you an advantage, at least until other teams realize it works and adopt the same strategy.

 

As for this year, I don't think getting Cain and Yelich in any way prevents them from making moves like this. I think they're just being opportunistic and pouncing on good value deals whenever they can find them. I like this team a lot and I hope they make the wild card, but I still think they're a clear notch below the d-backs and a couple notches below each division favorite, so I'm more concerned with what will pay off the most 2-3 years from now. The Giants, Rockies, Cardinals, and Mets are all pretty close to the Brewers in talent.

 

And as much as I like this team, I don't think Shaw, Santana, and least of all Knebel are going to be ~4 WAR guys very often. You could make a strong case for selling high on them. I remember the exact same arguments about Villar last year. It's recency bias to base your evaluation of a player so much on what he did in just the previous year.

 

Besides, you could probably sign Moustakas at 3b if you really want to. And I don't even believe in closers, but wouldn't Hader be about as obvious as it gets? Boone is good against lefties. Suter will be back in the pen when Nelson returns. Drake is good against lefties (yes, I'm keeping him for sure - all the hate is mostly narrative based on a few bad outings in high leverage situations but he's an effective reliever).

 

I like this team a lot either way, but I'd take that gamble on Mejia and McKenzie for sure.

[MadThinker88]

And of course I'd gladly take him back here in a trade that makes sense, but giving up 3 proven MLB players..

 

For clarification - I wasn't the person saying Mejia was worth 3 proven MLB players. Someone else suggested sending 3 players for Mejia & McKenzie. I don't see that happening from the CLE perspective. McKenzie goes no where.

 

In case you missed it: 1 of the tweets from HH19 suggested that the MKE cost for Mejia would be DSantana, F Peralta and J Nottingham (tweeted Feb 19).

 

I could see/ understand CLE looking for more than DSantana in a deal for Mejia & I also get the idea of including FPeralta for both sides. I am kinda stumped why Nottingham would be involved as CLE has a different catcher (Eric Haase) that was added to the 40 man this off season & profiles more like their normal Catcher (D first, RH, hits for power if he connects).

 

If its the inclusion of Nottingham holding up the trade, I would hope the teams could pivot to either a different player or possibly a couple of lottery tickets (ie someone not on a top 30 list and hasn't played in full season minor league ball yet)..

 

One other note: IF CLE acquired DSantana in a trade without sending to MKE one of Chisenhall or Kipnis, they probably have another deal or 2 in place as there would be a roster logjam.

[Lathund]

There are many different ways to solve the "OF logjam", and it can be solved with Braun, Santana, Yelich and Cain still at the club, but for this entire offseason, the best way to do it for me has always involved trading Santana. I'm not a believer in Santana, I don't think he will ever get much better than this. And even if he does, he probably got a bit "lucky" this year; i.e the exact same batted ball profile going forward should result in worse production. Things like the 8th highest HR/FB rate ever are part of that. So he could improve and still stay the same. So selling at this point IMO is the way to go. Now of course, that has been hurt by the fact that the market seems to take the same view I do and don't really believe in Santana. But even a league-average starter at OF/DH controlled for 4 years carries value, especially in the AL. So there is definitely some kind of deal to be made. It just might not be a direct trade for what we want, but perhaps two separate trades; Santana for prospects and prospects for pitching. Or salary dump pitcher + prospects. Or something else.

 

I'm probably also influenced by the fact that I'm in the camp of only looking to sign one more starter, and not being too interested in paying the asking price for Archer (I believe he'll be really good for us, but I prefer the FA route tbh). So the way I look to finish the offseason is by signing Alex Cobb, trading Santana (If a good starter can be had for just Santana, or Santana + minor pieces then sure, but I don't see it. Otherwise, for 2B/C or prospects), and depending on how good Braun looks at 1B and how much playing time he'll get there trade either Aguilar or Broxton. Though I suppose if we're going with 13 pitchers, both Aguilar and Broxton might need to be traded.

[coolhandluke121]

There are many different ways to solve the "OF logjam", and it can be solved with Braun, Santana, Yelich and Cain still at the club, but for this entire offseason, the best way to do it for me has always involved trading Santana. I'm not a believer in Santana, I don't think he will ever get much better than this. And even if he does, he probably got a bit "lucky" this year; i.e the exact same batted ball profile going forward should result in worse production. Things like the 8th highest HR/FB rate ever are part of that. So he could improve and still stay the same. So selling at this point IMO is the way to go. Now of course, that has been hurt by the fact that the market seems to take the same view I do and don't really believe in Santana. But even a league-average starter at OF/DH controlled for 4 years carries value, especially in the AL. So there is definitely some kind of deal to be made. It just might not be a direct trade for what we want, but perhaps two separate trades; Santana for prospects and prospects for pitching. Or salary dump pitcher + prospects. Or something else.

 

I'm probably also influenced by the fact that I'm in the camp of only looking to sign one more starter, and not being too interested in paying the asking price for Archer (I believe he'll be really good for us, but I prefer the FA route tbh). So the way I look to finish the offseason is by signing Alex Cobb, trading Santana (If a good starter can be had for just Santana, or Santana + minor pieces then sure, but I don't see it. Otherwise, for 2B/C or prospects), and depending on how good Braun looks at 1B and how much playing time he'll get there trade either Aguilar or Broxton. Though I suppose if we're going with 13 pitchers, both Aguilar and Broxton might need to be traded.

 

Strongly agree with almost all of this. There's little doubt that Aguilar will be gone one way or another though. Even if Santana is traded, Braun is the RHB 1b. Counsell has already said so. He also said Braun will only play LF when he's in the outfield. Last year showed that he won't hesitate to play Perez in the outfield against LHP's, which is the right decision because his versatility allows you to plug multiple holes with one roster spot. So it's not like Aguilar will even get to play 1B against LHP's with Braun moving to LF, as Braun will always be at 1b against LHP's if he's healthy.

 

Broxton is in AAA to start the year because he has an option. I'm not sure they'll get anything for him in a trade, and I like him for depth this year. Another minor need is an RHB 1B who still has an option, or a guy like Chris Carter on a minor league deal, in case Braun gets hurt. And a serviceable catcher in case Vogt bombs would be nice.