Domingo Santana - round 2

[tmwiese55]

At age 22 in AA former Brewers great Angel Solome hit 360/415 with 13 HRs. Better than what Mejia did. As good of a prospect as he is, he's still a prospect. C prospects especially seem to flame out more than anyone as it's so hard to maintain that hitting while playing C. Then if they move from C they're not really anything special as a hitter. I wonder why Mejia isn't supposed to be their starter this year if he's this good? I don't know maybe he is, I'm not an expert on the Indians but at his age and supposed pedigree he should be up this year.

[TJseven7]

Broxton had a 645 second half OPS and Aguilar wasn't much better. If they are being shopped I can't imagine it's for a whole lot.

 

That would mean they are very serious about Braun to 1B and so far I've just seen that as speculation and TBD?

 

All along I wondered how people thought Broxton Aguilar would get something when scooter got nothing. I get scooter was arby and not free but scraps are scraps. These 2 are scraps.

[adambr2]

 

I'm not... Just going off what HH tweeted about 0 chance Santana is traded.

 

He also said a few weeks ago that Santana was going to be traded to an AL team.

 

I'm not saying he's definitely not credible or anything, just pointing out, stuff changes all the time.

 

If I had to guess I'd say Yelich, Cain and Braun aren't going anywhere, and with Braun that's only because of the NTC. Anyone else would not surprise me in the least if they were dealt.

[Boomer5]

Broxton had a 645 second half OPS and Aguilar wasn't much better. If they are being shopped I can't imagine it's for a whole lot.

 

That would mean they are very serious about Braun to 1B and so far I've just seen that as speculation and TBD?

 

All along I wondered how people thought Broxton Aguilar would get something when scooter got nothing. I get scooter was arby and not free but scraps are scraps. These 2 are scraps.

 

Don't get me started on releasing Scooter......

 

But you're right. Broxton and Aguilar are nice little stories but they aren't guys you "shop" for anything meaningful. Unlike the Scooter situation where we still haven't replaced him, we don't need a back up 1B or CF now or in the next few years so while it makes sense to try and get something for them, the reality is the return won't be much.

[fondybrewfan]

Going into last year everyone was pretty confident Villar would be a upgrade over Scooter. Obviously that didn't turn out to be the case but his release last year was faced with indifference for the most part. Obviously some fans like him a lot more than others did but with Villar's strong 2016 it wasn't an unreasonable decision.

[TJseven7]

Going into last year everyone was pretty confident Villar would be a upgrade over Scooter. Obviously that didn't turn out to be the case but his release last year was faced with indifference for the most part. Obviously some fans like him a lot more than others did but with Villar's strong 2016 it wasn't an unreasonable decision.

 

And as much as certain people here like scooter, or thought highly of scooter, there were zero offers for him. If anyone saw that coming they'd have tossed mke something for him. Cincy fell into a surprise.

 

It wouldn't stun me if Broxton or Aguilar were cut and had a nice season elsewhere... but it would also surprise me if we got a rogers or 1/2 lind offer for either.

[MadThinker88]

McKenzie is the big untouchables in a trade with Cleveland. Yes, Mejia could be gotten in a trade but not McKenzie.

And to get Mejia, it "would sting".

 

Ha! I get that you are in a unique position of being both a Brewer and Indian fan, but be careful not to overvalue the Indians prospects. I can't think of a trade in recent history where a prospect's trade value was inflated over that of an established MLB player. The Brewers also shouldn't be in the business of shipping of prospects for other prospects. If the Indians want Santana, they'll need to pay a good price for him and only him. I would doubt any other MLB pieces or prospects would be going back to the Indians. If they value Mejia that highly, they'll just keep him.

 

Overvaluing can go both ways.

 

Not all current big league are worth the same value.

Not all current big league players are worth multiple prospects.

Not all current big league players are worth more than a single prospect.

Not all prospects have the same value.

 

Since the trade to get Yelich I have seen many fans on here think DSantana should bring a large or comparable return (to Yelich). I think that is way off.

 

Many posters point to DSantana's power and think it should bring a premium. When considering how many homers were hit & how many people hit 20+ homers in 2017, the value of power might never be lower. Considering DSantana never hit 30 homers in a single season before (at any professional level or levels combined), there is an open question if he could do it again, especially if not playing every day. The same fans either ignore or brush off the defensive shortcomings of Domingo.

 

The values of Yelich & DSantana are greatly different. Yelich has much much more value in comparison. There is greater team control with Yelich. He brings a better overall offensive game and is a better all around ballplayer (hitting/running/ fielding).

 

I've written it on this board before- DSantana has value. Perhaps it is more value to the Brewers than to any other team.

 

MLB Network did its top 100 players ranking last week. 4 Brewers were listed & the highest Brewers were Cain & Yelich (in the 40s). Braun & Knebel got the other 2 Brewer mentions. IIRC they were both in the lower 25 spots.

 

Now on the other side of the equation. The value of Mejia has gone up since the failed Lucroy trade of 2016. Earlier this offseason someone on here (it was either EyeBlack or ReillyMc) suggested that Lewis Brinson & Mejia had roughly the same prospect value as both players were showing up on prospect lists near each other. I can understand that viewpoint. I would counter that Mejia has slightly more value than Brinson in that he plays a position (catcher) where finding offense is generally secondary to defensive ability (calling a game/ framing pitches/ controlling baserunners). Mejia's calling card is his offense. His defensive ability has improved but it still needs some more work. I can say that having watched Mejia in person in 2015 (when Low-A Lake County visited Beloit) & in 2017 (watching a couple games he caught in AA Akron). Additionally, while Brinson is a highly rated OF, there are still other OF prospects ranked ahead of him. Mejia, even with his faults, is the top rated catching prospect. He is not a 'throw-in' on any trade. He is a valuable asset.

 

So we have the question: Is Mejia for DSantana a fair/ equal swap? Brewer fans will say no, they need more. Tribe fans will say no, they need something more with DSantana for Mejia.

 

Moving away from including DSantana in a deal, it would mean multiple Brewer prospects to get Mejia alone. Hence my reference earlier "it would sting".

 

In the end imho I see both sides moving away WITHOUT a deal being done.

[82brewcrew82]

I guess the D'Backs are off the table. Hard to see Santana moving now.

[brooks_quichenick]

3 team trade between NYY-TB-AZ sending Brandon Drury to New York and Steven Souza to AZ. Dbacks likely out on Santana now.

[Dadbauer]

Before people start jumping on the HH bandwagon, it is very easy to look at teams looking at outfielders and make things up about things that almost happened and there's no way to prove either way.

[MadThinker88]

At age 22 in AA former Brewers great Angel Solome hit 360/415 with 13 HRs. Better than what Mejia did. As good of a prospect as he is, he's still a prospect. C prospects especially seem to flame out more than anyone as it's so hard to maintain that hitting while playing C. Then if they move from C they're not really anything special as a hitter. I wonder why Mejia isn't supposed to be their starter this year if he's this good? I don't know maybe he is, I'm not an expert on the Indians but at his age and supposed pedigree he should be up this year.

 

Time to share some info/ insight.

1) Yan Gomes & Roberto Perez have multi year contracts in place to catch for Cleveland. As a small market team it is not in their nature to just bench/ release chunks of salary. They will explore ways to maximize the assets which includes exploring trades & increasing a player's position flexibility.

 

2) Cleveland values the D behind the plate more than the offensive the player could bring at that spot. Offense is seen as a bonus.

 

3) Mejia has not even played a game at AAA yet. While his bat is believed to be ready, his D can use more work/ seasoning especially as Cleveland is a heavy favorite to win its division/ make the post-season. In a rebuilding spot (like Miami if JT Realmuto was gone), he could easily break camp or be a June call up.

 

4) Comparing/ Contrasting the numbers of the Age 22 season is inaccurate. Mejia turned 22 in October 2017 so he played AA at age 21 & made his MLB debut already. Additionally the Southern League (Huntsville) is more of an offensive league then the Eastern League (Akron).

 

5) Salome got rated as a top 100 prospect 1 time (Baseball Prospectus #79 before start of the 2009 season). 2018 is the 2nd year Mejia is being rated inside the top 50 by multiple sources. Someone (other than fans like us) must feel Mejia has a great likelihood to succeed in the majors.

[reillymcshane]

Before people start jumping on the HH bandwagon, it is very easy to look at teams looking at outfielders and make things up about things that almost happened and there's no way to prove either way.

While I understand your comments, I'd ask that people just refrain from this line of conversation. It just leads to too many people sniping at each other. HH has his Twitter stuff and that's great. We don't need to get into any flame wars over its validity.

 

Thanks much.

[PeaveyFury]

does this mean we can all jump all over him and chastise him for his vague responses and question his credibility too? seem's like the common thing to do here when someone claims to have a "source"

 

for the record, I support everyone with a source as it fuels the fire and makes having a discussion in February about Brewers baseball meaningful! Which isnt something we can say often!

 

Based on what I know about reilly, info like this isn't out of left field.

[coolhandluke121]

Dude,

 

Big League Regulars >>>>>> prospects. Every single time. If you believe guys like Santana, Shaw and Knebel are all of a sudden going to fall off a cliff, I'm going to vehemently disagree. Sure, Villar regressed. Guerra was hurt, so that comparison can be tossed. But yes, going into last season, Villar was considered a building block and yes, a high-end big leaguer.

 

That's rather unreasonable. Every big league regular was once just a prospect. There are much better ways to evaluate talent than just looking at what a guy did in his first full season. Unless >>>>>> means more experienced, it's a silly thing to pass off as fact.

 

Sticking to your guns with Villar doesn't help your case. And it doesn't come down to "falling off a cliff", despite your insistence on polarizing the issues involved. It comes down to the probability that Mejia and McKenzie will out-produce Knebel, Santana, and Shaw for significantly less money during a period when the Brewers are more likely to be in contention. It's a continuum of possibilities, not a matter of black and white as you present it.

 

Santana has plenty of issues that should remind anyone with a sense of caution and tempered enthusiasm of Villar. High BABIP, terrible defense, lots of strikeouts, and mental lapses.

Knebel's walk rate is way too high for an elite closer and he played with fire all year.

I like Shaw, but he was never anything but an ordinary prospect compared to Mejia and McKenzie and he had one really good year in his prime (as so many average regulars do), just one year after being demoted on a team that desperately needed a 3b.

[adambr2]

does this mean we can all jump all over him and chastise him for his vague responses and question his credibility too? seem's like the common thing to do here when someone claims to have a "source"

 

for the record, I support everyone with a source as it fuels the fire and makes having a discussion in February about Brewers baseball meaningful! Which isnt something we can say often!

 

Based on what I know about reilly, info like this isn't out of left field.

 

For sure. Reilly has been around here, and seems to be one of the most level-headed and respected posters around. If he's got something, I'm for sure listening.

 

And I say that with no intent to downplay or take anything away from anyone else that might have a source.

[Jenkins5]

Keep Santana, sign Cobb or Arrieta. Think that right there is a strong team to compete. Get creative with PT to get best bats in lineup per the match ups everyday. Braun & Thames platoon could produce at insane level. Braun destroys lefties....Thames destroys righties. Could be looking at .950+ OPS at 1B.

 

Braun/ Yelich/ Cain/ Santana also could easily average out to be .850+ OPS. Shaw is solid & will produce I believe. Just have to hope 2B/SS/C can do enough.

 

Anderson, Cobb, Chacin, Davies, Woodruff should be able to what I think will be a very strong bullpen

[DR28]

HH tweeted that Drury almost became a Brewer... Damnit I would have loved to have had him playing 2B for us.

[Boobie53]

Souza out of TB may create a fit for Santana or Phillips involved in a deal for Archer.

[TJseven7]

HH tweeted that Drury almost became a Brewer... Damnit I would have loved to have had him playing 2B for us.

 

You wanted Drury? I'd rather give 2b to dubon and bat him 8th with a white flag tied on his bat. Drury isn't good.

[SRB]

Souza out of TB may create a fit for Santana or Phillips involved in a deal for Archer.

 

Either that or Tampa Bay just really likes Jake Bauers and is going to go with Span-Kiermaier-Bauers all season, with Mallex Smith as the fourth OF.

[NOMAAM]

HH tweeted that Drury almost became a Brewer... Damnit I would have loved to have had him playing 2B for us.

 

You wanted Drury? I'd rather give 2b to dubon and bat him 8th with a white flag tied on his bat. Drury isn't good.

Brewers already have a Drury type with Perez.

[SRB]

Villar and Drury have similar projections for 2018. The added downside to adding Drury is that we lose the opportunity cost of seeing if Villar can become an All Star player again (like happened to Segura)

[pacopete4]

Villar and Drury have similar projections for 2018. The added downside to adding Drury is that we lose the opportunity cost of seeing if Villar can become an All Star player again (like happened to Segura)

+1

 

And Perez is not Drury. Perez plays multiple positions well or he’d be out of the league. Drury will be turning 25 and might turn out to being a very good player.

[DR28]

Villar and Drury have similar projections for 2018. The added downside to adding Drury is that we lose the opportunity cost of seeing if Villar can become an All Star player again (like happened to Segura)

+1

 

And Perez is not Drury. Perez plays multiple positions well or he’d be out of the league. Drury will be turning 25 and might turn out to being a very good player.

 

Yes, Drury is very good... And would definitely have been better then what he have at 2B right now.

[TJseven7]

He was worse than sogard villar combined last year. He doesn't look impressive in any way. I'm confused by the love.