Domingo Santana - round 2

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Hello all! First time poster, long time reader. Figured this is a good spot for the first post.

 

First off my ideal offseason wouldn't have included the Cain signing and I would've used the 5/80 "savings" on upping the offer to Darvish to whatever it took to get him (5/150 guaranteed range or going to the 6 year if that's what it took). Using spending resources on Darvish > using them on Cain given the rotation lack of talent and OF strength. An OF of Bruan/Yelich/Santana left to right as the regular lineup with Broxton and Phillips (or even a cheap signing like Dyson) as the 4/5 is plenty good, imo. But the past is the past and here we are. The best route now is to likely trade Domingo as part of a package for a pitcher since I don't love the idea of giving up picks/IFA money and giving 4+ years to Arrieta or Cobb at the AAV they are looking at and just a big NO on even touching Lynn for me.

 

Even though I'm a fan of Domingo and think there's a potential perennial 3+ WAR player in there you don't need to look to hard to see some red flags that 2017 might have been his best year ever and maybe he's not going to be valued all that highly by some teams as a stand alone guy going out by us for a meaningful pitcher. I definitely think you need to add a prospect(s) for a quality SP with him (Archer as an example, whom I have concerns about as a 2-pitch pitcher and hard contact results) and think his value is likely closer to taking on a riskier guy like Carrasco or expensive, 1 year option like Corbin as a stand alone trade than him being the only player of significance going out for a better/less risky pitcher.

 

Getting back to those concerns in Domingo's numbers for me and why he might not be all that valuable (stealing some of this from another board I read earlier in the offseason).... he's carried an abnormally high BABIP and it's hard and rare to carry such a high BABIP with his profile as a ~30% K rate guy. Since 2015 only 10 qualified players had a .320 or higher BABIP with a K rate of 28% or higher, it's hard to do and even harder to replicate (no player replicated it over that 3 year span, they were all unique players). Santana in 1000+ PAs is a 31.7% K rate guy with a career .354 BABIP, last year he was 29% and .363. So it's quite reasonable to project a significant BABIP drop if his profile doesn't change and he doesn't lower his K rate by a 5%+. Throw in his below average defense with some BABIP regression/normalization and we aren't looking at all that valuable of a player if there's a .040 or more BABIP drop. We could be looking at a .230/.320/.450 slash line guy. The good thing is he does walk and have power so even as a low BA guy he could still put up a decent OPS but with power at a non-premium right now and below average defense/lack of versatility I could get why a team wouldn't be crazy to trade for him.

 

I wouldn't be wild about it but I could honestly see something like Santana and Sutter for Corbin, Smith and Varsho being in the ballpark of a trade. Or even something like Santana and Sutter/Woodruff for Carrasco + a prospect(s) and hope Carrasco stays healthy for once in his life since the stuff is there when he is healthy. It's a tough spot and I don't know the right answer but I'd lean toward moving him at this point and trying to get Corbin, he's solid and uninspiring but would lock in rotation spot and give us a lefty which would be a different look. I'd also lean towards adding Cobb after that. That's a good enough rotation to be firmly in the WC hunt and maybe challenge the Cubs if they falter. The Darvish signing really tipped that for me though, I think if they perform to reasonable projections and health it's not even going to be a race and if we got him it could've been a race.

 

Regardless, good to be on board (no pun intended) and look forward to posting with you guys throughout the year. It's an exciting time for us as Brewer fans and we should be firmly a team in the 80+ wins range for the foreseeable future which gives us a chance and future upside with prospects if things break right.

 

Also I like the Pat Burrell comp a few posts above for Domingo, he strikes out a little more and walks a little less than Burrell's peak years but I think it's a good one.

Welcome! Very well thought out first post. Look forward to hearing more from you.

Thanks! Look forward to being here and having some good discussions with the board, it's definitely the most insightful group of Brewer fans I can find on the internet to discuss the team. Very interested to see where the rest of the offseason goes and ready to just get this season here. As much as it will suck to see him go I think the worries are warranted on Domingo that once the BABIP comes back to normal he's really going to have to hit for power to carry positive value and I don't know if that's a risk I'm willing to take..... so I'm ready to "sell highish" on him to get us a piece in the rotation. I also wouldn't mind selling him off for prospects, though I'm not as well versed in them so I don't know what a decent target(s) would be other than the catcher from Cleveland that has been discussed.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

All your reasons are legit just don't think the brewers are going to get what the want for Domingo. I be happy to keep him around not sure about injuries too

 

The problem with hanging onto him is that there just isn't enough spots for everyone. Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Thames all deserve to be playing every day if healthy. Then you have guys like Phillips and Aguilar that arguably could be getting regular playing time. There's only four spots available. Even if you jettison Aguilar and say Phillips is your 4th outfielder, that's still 5 guys for four spots. If your answer is to platoon Braun and Thames, then you are taking one of the team's top bats out of the lineup every day.

I'd be happy to keep him around too but think his best value right now is probably to use him to grab a pitcher. But if he is kept there's plenty of playing time for everyone outside of Aguilar. People have been saying this about the Cubs the last 3 years with Schwarber/Almora/Happ/Heyward/Zobrist/Russell/Baez and Fowler 2 years ago and Jay last year that they have too many guys and not enough spots but it ends up that everyone ends up getting their time and it makes sense in the end. Guys are going to get hurt, regress or just not be good. It's not bad to have depth and it's never bad to give guys more rest overall than having to play 150-155+ games not only to stay healthier but also optimize performance in the splits various guys have.

 

Braun should probably be depended on for closer to 120 games than 140 games both in terms of how he's aging/getting hurt and keeping him fresh, Cain is 32 and we just made a long term investment in him he probably should be given adequate rest, there's going to be lefties you want to sit Yelich against, Thames should never play vs lefties, if Domingo is here you're going to want to pull him for defense and sit him vs some RHP, Broxton should only start vs LHP and be a defensive replacement, and Phillips is a bit of an unknown but has been a high K guy everywhere for the last 3 years so there's going to be certain types of pitchers to shield him against. And really neither of Broxton/Phillips should be depended on outside of depth to begin the year with intention to contend since they both just might not be good/platoon guys and if one guy has to play in AAA most of the year or only ends up with ~40 starts or being a late inning defensive/base running guy so be it, it likely means other guys are healthy and performing well.

[TJseven7]

Its a shame he absolutely sucks defensively.

 

I could see 255/345 being closer to reality on him. Still think his power profile can get him near 30 hr with those averages.

 

But that makes the 225/320 with 25 hr power of broxton vs lhp

and the NOT 307/373 with 25 hr power of phillips vs rhp

 

Look like a smaller O downgrade than I'd assume. Defensively it would be a bigger than 1 war upgrade.

 

Maybe Id take Duplanteir and pieces or Gohara and Toussaint after all.

[brewcrewdue80]

Welcome new poster.

In regards to Santana high BaBip, he had the 2nd highest avg exit velocity on the team with the bat. He was listed in 16 near the top I recall on hardest hit velocity on some HRs. I think that translates to having a higher BaBiP. You listed a 31% k rate last 2 seasons but 29% last season. So 4% improvement? You would think he can slide it down to 27% then this year or at the least keep it below 30%. He's entering his prime so I expect good-great years moving forward. I would be more concerned if he were approaching 30 with his behind the numbers, and being a big decline candidate. Remember he's taller, so he has leverage on his side (see Judges' s rookie year)

Whether last year is on his ceiling type of stats or not, I think he's likely to ride that wave with those stats for awhile like Early Braun.

My only concern with him moving forward is health and avoiding injuries. He has just a lumbering kind of stride and at some point leg injuries may follow. Doesnt matter if he becomes a career DH for an AL team. Id guess for a mid-range market team he would likely do that when signed in FA. Toronto/Baltimore/Texas type not a Boston/NYY/LAA club

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not worried about starting the year with an extra bat. Counsell should be able to juggle so everyone gets at least 3 starts per week plus PH opportunities. They will be set if an injury pops up, and if an injury pops up around the league or a young player being counted on by a contender struggles, I'm sure Stearns will be on the phone in a flash. For instance, what if Bird gets hurt again in NY, or disaster strikes and they lose Stanton or Judge for significant time. In the former case, Thames would be a perfect fit. In the latter, Santana would be too.

[coolhandluke121]

I know this is a Brewers board and most of us like our own players, but I'd consider throwing in another win-now piece for Cleveland to get Mejia. You'll never get him with just Santana, but I'm definitely not hanging up the phone if they ask for more.

You gotta assume the Indians are in total mortgage-the-future mode for a chance at a title. I almost wonder if Santana, Shaw, and Knebel could fetch Mejia and McKenzie. I don't see the Brewers catching the division favorites or even Arizona this year, but holy cow that would set themselves up to be really good in a few years.

 

Still kind of hoping Braun to LAD happens so we don't have to worry about whether he can play 1b.

 

Basically I'm leaning strongly towards something involving Braun (but he'll only go to LAD) or Santana for prospects, because I don't think the right trade for a pitcher exists. Opening it up to accepting prospects gives you all sorts of opportunities to find a fair deal, and it's not even that big of a setback for your hopes this year.

[PDCBalla]

I know this is a Brewers board and most of us like our own players, but I'd consider throwing in another win-now piece for Cleveland to get Mejia. You'll never get him with just Santana, but I'm definitely not hanging up the phone if they ask for more.

You gotta assume the Indians are in total mortgage-the-future mode for a chance at a title. I almost wonder if Santana, Shaw, and Knebel could fetch Mejia and McKenzie. I don't see the Brewers catching the division favorites or even Arizona this year, but holy cow that would set themselves up to be really good in a few years.

 

Still kind of hoping Braun to LAD happens so we don't have to worry about whether he can play 1b.

 

Basically I'm leaning strongly towards something involving Braun (but he'll only go to LAD) or Santana for prospects, because I don't think the right trade for a pitcher exists. Opening it up to accepting prospects gives you all sorts of opportunities to find a fair deal, and it's not even that big of a setback for your hopes this year.

 

How is trading our third baseman and closer for two prospects considered "not even that big of setback for your hopes this year"? I'm all for sending Santana out for prospects but I'm giving up two more crucial pieces. The Brewers are not that far from being able to contend. All a team needs to do is get into the postseason. Do that and anything can happen in October.

[mlloyd10]

I know this is a Brewers board and most of us like our own players, but I'd consider throwing in another win-now piece for Cleveland to get Mejia. You'll never get him with just Santana, but I'm definitely not hanging up the phone if they ask for more.

You gotta assume the Indians are in total mortgage-the-future mode for a chance at a title. I almost wonder if Santana, Shaw, and Knebel could fetch Mejia and McKenzie. I don't see the Brewers catching the division favorites or even Arizona this year, but holy cow that would set themselves up to be really good in a few years.

 

Still kind of hoping Braun to LAD happens so we don't have to worry about whether he can play 1b.

 

Basically I'm leaning strongly towards something involving Braun (but he'll only go to LAD) or Santana for prospects, because I don't think the right trade for a pitcher exists. Opening it up to accepting prospects gives you all sorts of opportunities to find a fair deal, and it's not even that big of a setback for your hopes this year.

 

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey?

 

Thats a really big over pay for Mejia and i like him.

 

Santana/Burnes/Hiura gets you Mejia/McKenzie

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I know this is a Brewers board and most of us like our own players, but I'd consider throwing in another win-now piece for Cleveland to get Mejia. You'll never get him with just Santana, but I'm definitely not hanging up the phone if they ask for more.

You gotta assume the Indians are in total mortgage-the-future mode for a chance at a title. I almost wonder if Santana, Shaw, and Knebel could fetch Mejia and McKenzie. I don't see the Brewers catching the division favorites or even Arizona this year, but holy cow that would set themselves up to be really good in a few years.

 

Still kind of hoping Braun to LAD happens so we don't have to worry about whether he can play 1b.

 

Basically I'm leaning strongly towards something involving Braun (but he'll only go to LAD) or Santana for prospects, because I don't think the right trade for a pitcher exists. Opening it up to accepting prospects gives you all sorts of opportunities to find a fair deal, and it's not even that big of a setback for your hopes this year.

 

I totally support shopping Santana and understand shopping Braun to clear the logjam, but shipping out guys like Shaw and Knebel for prospects? When there is really no one to take over for them on this year's contending team? I mean, I get that Mejia is a good prospect, but there's some "prospect envy" going on with him that is bordering on unhealthy.

[MadThinker88]

I know this is a Brewers board and most of us like our own players, but I'd consider throwing in another win-now piece for Cleveland to get Mejia. You'll never get him with just Santana, but I'm definitely not hanging up the phone if they ask for more.

You gotta assume the Indians are in total mortgage-the-future mode for a chance at a title. I almost wonder if Santana, Shaw, and Knebel could fetch Mejia and McKenzie. I don't see the Brewers catching the division favorites or even Arizona this year, but holy cow that would set themselves up to be really good in a few years.

 

Still kind of hoping Braun to LAD happens so we don't have to worry about whether he can play 1b.

 

Basically I'm leaning strongly towards something involving Braun (but he'll only go to LAD) or Santana for prospects, because I don't think the right trade for a pitcher exists. Opening it up to accepting prospects gives you all sorts of opportunities to find a fair deal, and it's not even that big of a setback for your hopes this year.

 

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey?

 

Thats a really big over pay for Mejia and i like him.

 

Santana/Burnes/Hiura gets you Mejia/McKenzie

 

McKenzie is the big untouchables in a trade with Cleveland. Yes, Mejia could be gotten in a trade but not McKenzie.

And to get Mejia, it "would sting".

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

McKenzie is the big untouchables in a trade with Cleveland. Yes, Mejia could be gotten in a trade but not McKenzie.

And to get Mejia, it "would sting".

 

Ha! I get that you are in a unique position of being both a Brewer and Indian fan, but be careful not to overvalue the Indians prospects. I can't think of a trade in recent history where a prospect's trade value was inflated over that of an established MLB player. The Brewers also shouldn't be in the business of shipping of prospects for other prospects. If the Indians want Santana, they'll need to pay a good price for him and only him. I would doubt any other MLB pieces or prospects would be going back to the Indians. If they value Mejia that highly, they'll just keep him.

[brewmann04]

That why I glad so far DS had not pulled the trigger on Mejia or Archer

[coolhandluke121]

I know this is a Brewers board and most of us like our own players, but I'd consider throwing in another win-now piece for Cleveland to get Mejia. You'll never get him with just Santana, but I'm definitely not hanging up the phone if they ask for more.

You gotta assume the Indians are in total mortgage-the-future mode for a chance at a title. I almost wonder if Santana, Shaw, and Knebel could fetch Mejia and McKenzie. I don't see the Brewers catching the division favorites or even Arizona this year, but holy cow that would set themselves up to be really good in a few years.

 

Still kind of hoping Braun to LAD happens so we don't have to worry about whether he can play 1b.

 

Basically I'm leaning strongly towards something involving Braun (but he'll only go to LAD) or Santana for prospects, because I don't think the right trade for a pitcher exists. Opening it up to accepting prospects gives you all sorts of opportunities to find a fair deal, and it's not even that big of a setback for your hopes this year.

 

How is trading our third baseman and closer for two prospects considered "not even that big of setback for your hopes this year"? I'm all for sending Santana out for prospects but I'm giving up two more crucial pieces. The Brewers are not that far from being able to contend. All a team needs to do is get into the postseason. Do that and anything can happen in October.

 

That was in reference to the last paragraph only. Trading Braun or Santana for prospects isn't a big setback because they have a ridiculous logjam at OF/1B anyway.

 

Obviously Shaw and Knebel would be a big setback this year. However, while I'm hoping for a wild card, I still think they're a notch below Arizona, let alone the division favorites, so my priority is for them to be as good as possible a couple years from now.

 

Shaw, Knebel, and Santana are far from proven MLB players at this point. The idea that you should be able to get more than 2 top-10 prospects for them is home team bias. It makes me wonder what the conversations about trading Guerra and Villar were like here last season, though I think I can imagine how that went. Compare it for example to a guy like Lucroy, who was almost traded for Mejia after having been basically a 4 WAR player 4 out of 5 years in a row and a top-5 MVP candidate one of those years. That's the type of player you can trade for a Mejia+ package.

[brewcrewdue80]

Id ask for Mejia and McKenzie for Kneble...maybe.

[Warning Track Power]

As mentioned earlier in the thread, a three team deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay just makes so much sense at this point in time. I won't presume to know what the exact deal would have to be and what prospects would have to go back to Tampa Bay but I would imagine something like this:

 

Milwaukee gets: Archer

Arizona gets: Santana

Tampa Bay gets: Arizona prospects & Milwaukee prospects

 

This would perhaps limit the haul the Brewers would have to send to Tampa Bay rather than the Santana-Burnes-Phillips-Peralta package that was floated.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

As mentioned earlier in the thread, a three team deal with Arizona and Tampa Bay just makes so much sense at this point in time. I won't presume to know what the exact deal would have to be and what prospects would have to go back to Tampa Bay but I would imagine something like this:

 

Milwaukee gets: Archer

Arizona gets: Santana

Tampa Bay gets: Arizona prospects & Milwaukee prospects

 

This would perhaps limit the haul the Brewers would have to send to Tampa Bay rather than the Santana-Burnes-Phillips-Peralta package that was floated.

 

Only problem with this is both farm systems are lacking big named prospects (top 30 overall prospects.) and I don't think Arizona would want to get rid of every impactful prospect they have just to get Santana.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey?

 

 

When did Santana, Shaw, and Knebel become whatever it is you're saying they are??

[wallus]

Id ask for Mejia and McKenzie for Knebel...maybe.

 

Why would Cleveland do that? Knebel isn't that proven of a reliever and he is about to get more expensive.

[coolhandluke121]

Id ask for Mejia and McKenzie for Kneble...maybe.

 

Blue font?

[Devinep]

Id ask for Mejia and McKenzie for Knebel...maybe.

 

Why would Cleveland do that? Knebel isn't that proven of a reliever and he is about to get more expensive.

 

You think Cleveland would have a problem with that? I’d trade Santana+ for Mejia, but Not as much as Knebel

[Outlander]

 

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey?

 

 

When did Santana, Shaw, and Knebel become whatever it is you're saying they are??

Well they did prove it at the big league level and Mejia is just a prospect. When dealing with established players it is the established player for multiple prospects not the other way around.

[mlloyd10]

 

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey?

 

 

When did Santana, Shaw, and Knebel become whatever it is you're saying they are??

 

Need to stop being in love with Prospects..Mejia isn't even willson contreras...If Shaw repeats his 2017 performance, he would a similar package to what the Brewers gave up for Yelich.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Hell no - When did Mejia become Buster Posey?

 

 

When did Santana, Shaw, and Knebel become whatever it is you're saying they are??

Well they did prove it at the big league level and Mejia is just a prospect. When dealing with established players it is the established player for multiple prospects not the other way around.

 

+1

 

I don't get valuing other team's prospects more than our high-end big leaguers. I mean, I get that some players do regress, but you'd think by reading some posts around here that every player on the Brewers' team is bound to be horrible!

[adambr2]

If the Brewers land Arrieta or Cobb, what would people think of a prospect heavy deal for Santana to Arizona headlined around Pavin Smith?

[wallus]

If the Brewers land Arrieta or Cobb, what would people think of a prospect heavy deal for Santana to Arizona headlined around Pavin Smith?

 

You want to headline a deal with a 22 year old first baseman that hit no home runs in 51 A ball games?