Domingo Santana - round 2

[brewmann04]

I still think they listen to any offers but think Santana will be a brewer come opening day

[NOMAAM]

I still think they listen to any offers but think Santana will be a brewer come opening day

I'm good with that cheap Braun insurance.

[mattyo]

What do people think about trading Domingo to Dbacks for top prospects, then flipping those prospects (with a few others) for Archer. That way TB gets their young players instead of an OF who has already burned service time.

[coolhandluke121]

What do people think about trading Domingo to Dbacks for top prospects, then flipping those prospects (with a few others) for Archer. That way TB gets their young players instead of an OF who has already burned service time.

 

I don't like Archer under any realistic circumstances. Whenever I've seen him pitch, it's always felt like it's a matter of time before the offense starts smashing him. I guess advanced stats bear that out, though admittedly I'm not on fangraphs 2 hours a day or whatever.

 

It's tough to give the D-Backs exactly what they need because they're the favorite for the first wild-card already, but I could be tempted by the Corbin + Pavin deal that's been rumored. The only reason is that I think the Brewers are couple years away from passing any of the top 4 teams in the NL anyway, so anything that positions them better for that window is pretty appealing. Competing for the wild card now still wouldn't be out of the question at all, as I think they'd still be better than the Cards, Mets, Rockies, or Giants. As long as they'd still have a chance to steal a wild card game, probably from Arizona, why not clean up the roster and get a perfect fit for your future 1b, an asset the organization lacks at the moment?

[wildcat2237]

What do people think about trading Domingo to Dbacks for top prospects, then flipping those prospects (with a few others) for Archer. That way TB gets their young players instead of an OF who has already burned service time.

 

I don't like Archer under any realistic circumstances. Whenever I've seen him pitch, it's always felt like it's a matter of time before the offense starts smashing him. I guess advanced stats bear that out, though admittedly I'm not on fangraphs 2 hours a day or whatever.

 

It's tough to give the D-Backs exactly what they need because they're the favorite for the first wild-card already, but I could be tempted by the Corbin + Pavin deal that's been rumored. The only reason is that I think the Brewers are couple years away from passing any of the top 4 teams in the NL anyway, so anything that positions them better for that window is pretty appealing. Competing for the wild card now still wouldn't be out of the question at all, as I think they'd still be better than the Cards, Mets, Rockies, or Giants. As long as they'd still have a chance to steal a wild card game, probably from Arizona, why not clean up the roster and get a perfect fit for your future 1b, an asset the organization lacks at the moment?

 

Agree 100% on Archer. I'm just not a fan.

 

To make matters worse, the d-bags farm system is really really bad, so there is not much to choose from.

 

Their top two prospects are Jon Duplantier and Pavin Smith.

 

Duplantier is barely a top 100 prospect.

 

Smith is a 1st baseman who hit 0 hr's in 195 low A at- bats. I couldn't stand Smith in the draft and I don't want him now.

 

If we're going to acquire roll the dice and acquire Corbin, I'd rather just sign Jeremy Hellickson.

[wallus]

Trade Domingo for Mejia (Arby eligible, save some payroll)

Sign Cobb and Arrieta (no more than 4 year deals)

Trade Thames for prospect(s), start Braun at 1st

Release Gallardo and go young at his spot in the pen (I'm a big T. Williams fan)

 

Villar

Yelich

Braun

Shaw

Cain

Pina/Vogt (Mejia later if he is ready and/or if either of these guys struggle)

Phillips/Broxton

Arcia

Pitcher

 

Arrieta

Cobb

Anderson

Davies

Chacin

 

Payroll would likely be in the 125-130 million range and switching out Thames and Santana should save some money next year. This is a risky plan but that team very likely makes the playoffs for a while . It is almost always cheaper to pick up offense during the season versus pitching.

[JosephC]

Perhaps they are willing to move on from Tomas (who is owed $46M over the next three years) - in which case Santana would work well for them.

 

 

Arizona would love nothing more than to be able to dump Tomas' contract. 46 million is a huge number considering Tomas is a worthless player.

[JosephC]

 

Their top two prospects are Jon Duplantier and Pavin Smith.

 

Duplantier is barely a top 100 prospect.

 

 

Burnes had a 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 in 145 2/3 innings last year.

 

Duplantier had a 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 in 136 innings last year.

 

They are basically the same age (3 months apart) and Duplantier (A/A+) was pitching 1 level behind Burnes (A+/AA). Scouting reports I've read seem to indicate that Duplantier's stuff is more "electric" than Burnes. Duplantier did miss one season at Rice because of a shoulder injury (didn't have surgery) and I'm guessing that plays into the fact that he's probably considered by most to be a 75-100 pitcher on the top 100 prospect list. Note that Baseball America has Duplantier at #73 and Burnes at #74 on their top 100 list.

 

And as far as Pavin Smith, .400+ OBP bats play. And just like in college, Smith ended up with a .401 OBP and a 27 walk/24 strikeout performance in A ball last year.

 

I'd definitely be listening if Arizona offered up both of these players for Santana.

[wildcat2237]

 

Their top two prospects are Jon Duplantier and Pavin Smith.

 

Duplantier is barely a top 100 prospect.

 

 

Burnes had a 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 6.4 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, 8.6 K/9 in 145 2/3 innings last year.

 

Duplantier had a 1.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 2.8 BB/9, 10.9 K/9 in 136 innings last year.

 

They are basically the same age (3 months apart) and Duplantier (A/A+) was pitching 1 level behind Burnes (A+/AA). Scouting reports I've read seem to indicate that Duplantier's stuff is more "electric" than Burnes. Duplantier did miss one season at Rice because of a shoulder injury (didn't have surgery) and I'm guessing that plays into the fact that he's probably considered by most to be a 75-100 pitcher on the top 100 prospect list. Note that Baseball America has Duplantier at #73 and Burnes at #74 on their top 100 list.

 

And as far as Pavin Smith, .400+ OBP bats play. And just like in college, Smith ended up with a .401 OBP and a 27 walk/24 strikeout performance in A ball last year.

 

I'd definitely be listening if Arizona offered up both of these players for Santana.

 

I cant disagree more on Pavin Smith. He put up a .400 OBP in A ball with absolutely ZERO power. As he goes up in the ranks the OBP is going to come down and I doubt the power suddenly appears.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I still think Santana is kind of a square peg in a round hole for how Stearns is building this roster. I just don't know how they are going to possibly be able to divide up playing time among their OF and 1B group. I think Santana is going to be dealt for the best package they can get, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Broxton dealt for either another smaller package or perhaps a bullpen piece. It wouldn't surprise me to see the team make several trades during Spring Training.

[badger3034]

I still think Santana is kind of a square peg in a round hole for how Stearns is building this roster. I just don't know how they are going to possibly be able to divide up playing time among their OF and 1B group. I think Santana is going to be dealt for the best package they can get, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Broxton dealt for either another smaller package or perhaps a bullpen piece. It wouldn't surprise me to see the team make several trades during Spring Training.

 

If Braun is playing 1B full time, Aguilar or Thames will be gone, probably Aguilar. Don't think it really matters to them if its a trade or release

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I still think Santana is kind of a square peg in a round hole for how Stearns is building this roster. I just don't know how they are going to possibly be able to divide up playing time among their OF and 1B group. I think Santana is going to be dealt for the best package they can get, and it wouldn't surprise me to see Broxton dealt for either another smaller package or perhaps a bullpen piece. It wouldn't surprise me to see the team make several trades during Spring Training.

 

If Braun is playing 1B full time, Aguilar or Thames will be gone, probably Aguilar. Don't think it really matters to them if its a trade or release

 

You're right, and even if Braun is playing 1B, there's still too many players for the positions available. Especially if they want to put the best defensive outfield on the field together, which would mean Phillips in RF, not Santana.

[brewmann04]

You do lose some home runs when you move Santana

[brewerhuman]

You do lose some home runs when you move Santana

 

Is it weird that I clearly see the value Santana brings but am also quite confident that the outfield can make up for his production based on the additions and potential replacements?

[82brewcrew82]

You do lose some home runs when you move Santana

 

Is it weird that I clearly see the value Santana brings but am also quite confident that the outfield can make up for his production based on the additions and potential replacements?

Nope

[wallus]

You do lose some home runs when you move Santana

 

Is it weird that I clearly see the value Santana brings but am also quite confident that the outfield can make up for his production based on the additions and potential replacements?

 

You can make up for some lost offense if you have a better defender in right.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

You do lose some home runs when you move Santana

 

I really like Santana, and I don't think he has peaked as an offensive performer. Heck, he is even young enough that his defense may theoretically improve. I'm not going to really be upset if they don't get an offer that they deem appropriate for him, as having a young corner OF that should be able to hit 35-40 HRs and drive in 100 is a terrific asset.

 

But Braun isn't going anywhere, Thames hit 31 HRs last year, Aguiar had a very nice year, and Phillips really has nothing left to prove in the minors, so at least one move has to be made. And it's likely that Santana is probably the most expendable, along with having the most outside value.

[brewmann04]

All your reasons are legit just don't think the brewers are going to get what the want for Domingo. I be happy to keep him around not sure about injuries too

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

All your reasons are legit just don't think the brewers are going to get what the want for Domingo. I be happy to keep him around not sure about injuries too

 

The problem with hanging onto him is that there just isn't enough spots for everyone. Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Thames all deserve to be playing every day if healthy. Then you have guys like Phillips and Aguilar that arguably could be getting regular playing time. There's only four spots available. Even if you jettison Aguilar and say Phillips is your 4th outfielder, that's still 5 guys for four spots. If your answer is to platoon Braun and Thames, then you are taking one of the team's top bats out of the lineup every day.

[brewmann04]

Again I understand like I said just don't think we giving him away at this point. And they also have to move Bronxton unless they send him down

[reillymcshane]

You do lose some home runs when you move Santana

 

I really like Santana, and I don't think he has peaked as an offensive performer.

I can understand this - and personally, I don't know really know the answer.

 

I will share this bit of info from a baseball source I know. He said that he has talked to quite a few people that feel that Santana's 2017 performance is probably his offensive ceiling. The biggest reason is that he simply strikes out too much. It is just going to limit his offensive upside. He'll never sniff .300 with 180 strikeouts in a year.

 

I had the name Pat Burrell thrown out as a comp by another person I know. A right hander, Burrell hit 37 HR and a .920 OPS at age 24 with a 4.5 bWAR. He had only one other year with a WAR over 3.0 for the rest of his career. He hit 30+ HR four times, and took lots of walks, and was a terrible fielder. He generally ended up hitting around .260 or so, striking out 150 times - that sort of thing. He was a good - but not great - power bat.

 

In Burrell's defense, I believe he suffered some injuries which really hurt him. But the idea is kind of the same. Big, right handed power guy, strikes out a ton, plays bad defense.

 

Again, I really don't know Santana's ceiling (no one really does). But the team may feel that he isn't going to get much better. Couple that with mediocre (at best) defense - and moving him now might be the best thing (if the team finds someone that likes him).

[Devinep]

I feel Santana’s projections would be a lot better if he was a cub -he’s proven a lot more and isn’t as fat as Schwarber. Santana has hit all the way through his minor and major league career. Yes other players may have lower hitting but just as high of a WAR, but that’s because WAR goes crazy over corner OF defense. I’ll take Santana over Jarrod Dyson (close in WAR last year) any day

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Hello all! First time poster, long time reader. Figured this is a good spot for the first post.

 

First off my ideal offseason wouldn't have included the Cain signing and I would've used the 5/80 "savings" on upping the offer to Darvish to whatever it took to get him (5/150 guaranteed range or going to the 6 year if that's what it took). Using spending resources on Darvish > using them on Cain given the rotation lack of talent and OF strength. An OF of Bruan/Yelich/Santana left to right as the regular lineup with Broxton and Phillips (or even a cheap signing like Dyson) as the 4/5 is plenty good, imo. But the past is the past and here we are. The best route now is to likely trade Domingo as part of a package for a pitcher since I don't love the idea of giving up picks/IFA money and giving 4+ years to Arrieta or Cobb at the AAV they are looking at and just a big NO on even touching Lynn for me.

 

Even though I'm a fan of Domingo and think there's a potential perennial 3+ WAR player in there you don't need to look to hard to see some red flags that 2017 might have been his best year ever and maybe he's not going to be valued all that highly by some teams as a stand alone guy going out by us for a meaningful pitcher. I definitely think you need to add a prospect(s) for a quality SP with him (Archer as an example, whom I have concerns about as a 2-pitch pitcher and hard contact results) and think his value is likely closer to taking on a riskier guy like Carrasco or expensive, 1 year option like Corbin as a stand alone trade than him being the only player of significance going out for a better/less risky pitcher.

 

Getting back to those concerns in Domingo's numbers for me and why he might not be all that valuable (stealing some of this from another board I read earlier in the offseason).... he's carried an abnormally high BABIP and it's hard and rare to carry such a high BABIP with his profile as a ~30% K rate guy. Since 2015 only 10 qualified players had a .320 or higher BABIP with a K rate of 28% or higher, it's hard to do and even harder to replicate (no player replicated it over that 3 year span, they were all unique players). Santana in 1000+ PAs is a 31.7% K rate guy with a career .354 BABIP, last year he was 29% and .363. So it's quite reasonable to project a significant BABIP drop if his profile doesn't change and he doesn't lower his K rate by a 5%+. Throw in his below average defense with some BABIP regression/normalization and we aren't looking at all that valuable of a player if there's a .040 or more BABIP drop. We could be looking at a .230/.320/.450 slash line guy. The good thing is he does walk and have power so even as a low BA guy he could still put up a decent OPS but with power at a non-premium right now and below average defense/lack of versatility I could get why a team wouldn't be crazy to trade for him.

 

I wouldn't be wild about it but I could honestly see something like Santana and Sutter for Corbin, Smith and Varsho being in the ballpark of a trade. Or even something like Santana and Sutter/Woodruff for Carrasco + a prospect(s) and hope Carrasco stays healthy for once in his life since the stuff is there when he is healthy. It's a tough spot and I don't know the right answer but I'd lean toward moving him at this point and trying to get Corbin, he's solid and uninspiring but would lock in rotation spot and give us a lefty which would be a different look. I'd also lean towards adding Cobb after that. That's a good enough rotation to be firmly in the WC hunt and maybe challenge the Cubs if they falter. The Darvish signing really tipped that for me though, I think if they perform to reasonable projections and health it's not even going to be a race and if we got him it could've been a race.

 

Regardless, good to be on board (no pun intended) and look forward to posting with you guys throughout the year. It's an exciting time for us as Brewer fans and we should be firmly a team in the 80+ wins range for the foreseeable future which gives us a chance and future upside with prospects if things break right.

 

Also I like the Pat Burrell comp a few posts above for Domingo, he strikes out a little more and walks a little less than Burrell's peak years but I think it's a good one.

[reillymcshane]

Hello all! First time poster, long time reader. Figured this is a good spot for the first post.

 

First off my ideal offseason wouldn't have included the Cain signing and I would've used the 5/80 "savings" on upping the offer to Darvish to whatever it took to get him (5/150 guaranteed range or going to the 6 year if that's what it took). Using spending resources on Darvish > using them on Cain given the rotation lack of talent and OF strength. An OF of Bruan/Yelich/Santana left to right as the regular lineup with Broxton and Phillips (or even a cheap signing like Dyson) as the 4/5 is plenty good, imo. But the past is the past and here we are. The best route now is to likely trade Domingo as part of a package for a pitcher since I don't love the idea of giving up picks/IFA money and giving 4+ years to Arrieta or Cobb at the AAV they are looking at and just a big NO on even touching Lynn for me.

 

Even though I'm a fan of Domingo and think there's a potential perennial 3+ WAR player in there you don't need to look to hard to see some red flags that 2017 might have been his best year ever and maybe he's not going to be valued all that highly by some teams as a stand alone guy going out by us for a meaningful pitcher. I definitely think you need to add a prospect(s) for a quality SP with him (Archer as an example, whom I have concerns about as a 2-pitch pitcher and hard contact results) and think his value is likely closer to taking on a riskier guy like Carrasco or expensive, 1 year option like Corbin as a stand alone trade than him being the only player of significance going out for a better/less risky pitcher.

 

Getting back to those concerns in Domingo's numbers for me and why he might not be all that valuable (stealing some of this from another board I read earlier in the offseason).... he's carried an abnormally high BABIP and it's hard and rare to carry such a high BABIP with his profile as a ~30% K rate guy. Since 2015 only 10 qualified players had a .320 or higher BABIP with a K rate of 28% or higher, it's hard to do and even harder to replicate (no player replicated it over that 3 year span, they were all unique players). Santana in 1000+ PAs is a 31.7% K rate guy with a career .354 BABIP, last year he was 29% and .363. So it's quite reasonable to project a significant BABIP drop if his profile doesn't change and he doesn't lower his K rate by a 5%+. Throw in his below average defense with some BABIP regression/normalization and we aren't looking at all that valuable of a player if there's a .040 or more BABIP drop. We could be looking at a .230/.320/.450 slash line guy. The good thing is he does walk and have power so even as a low BA guy he could still put up a decent OPS but with power at a non-premium right now and below average defense/lack of versatility I could get why a team wouldn't be crazy to trade for him.

 

I wouldn't be wild about it but I could honestly see something like Santana and Sutter for Corbin, Smith and Varsho being in the ballpark of a trade. Or even something like Santana and Sutter/Woodruff for Carrasco + a prospect(s) and hope Carrasco stays healthy for once in his life since the stuff is there when he is healthy. It's a tough spot and I don't know the right answer but I'd lean toward moving him at this point and trying to get Corbin, he's solid and uninspiring but would lock in rotation spot and give us a lefty which would be a different look. I'd also lean towards adding Cobb after that. That's a good enough rotation to be firmly in the WC hunt and maybe challenge the Cubs if they falter. The Darvish signing really tipped that for me though, I think if they perform to reasonable projections and health it's not even going to be a race and if we got him it could've been a race.

 

Regardless, good to be on board (no pun intended) and look forward to posting with you guys throughout the year. It's an exciting time for us as Brewer fans and we should be firmly a team in the 80+ wins range for the foreseeable future which gives us a chance and future upside with prospects if things break right.

 

Also I like the Pat Burrell comp a few posts above for Domingo, he strikes out a little more and walks a little less than Burrell's peak years but I think it's a good one.

Welcome! Very well thought out first post. Look forward to hearing more from you.

[TJseven7]

All your reasons are legit just don't think the brewers are going to get what the want for Domingo. I be happy to keep him around not sure about injuries too

 

The problem with hanging onto him is that there just isn't enough spots for everyone. Yelich, Cain, Santana, Braun and Thames all deserve to be playing every day if healthy. Then you have guys like Phillips and Aguilar that arguably could be getting regular playing time. There's only four spots available. Even if you jettison Aguilar and say Phillips is your 4th outfielder, that's still 5 guys for four spots. If your answer is to platoon Braun and Thames, then you are taking one of the team's top bats out of the lineup every day.

 

2 points...

My biggest issue with dealing santana is that the team gets very light against lhp

Unless

You leave braun in LF aguilar at 1b... braun yelich cain is not the huge upgrade we could have accomplished in OF defense.

 

Thames... .182/.264.... 658 ops

I see a good 60 games where Thames can sit. No worries. That'll clear out a good chunk of that playing time crunch. Cain yelich santana braun need to play... thames doesn't... really quite often he can sit.

 

I'd love phillips in RF... but I think 2 things would need to happen for our offense to not take a massive hit in moving santana. 1) phillips 120/broxton 42 vs lhp. 2) We'd need a C or 2b who is a legitimate rh stick. Mejia (s) or Huira when they are mlb ready would do the trick.