2B Targets

[KeithStone53151]

 

"My other target for the #Indians this offseason would be Domingo Santana of the #Brewers. I think he would fit very nicely in the Tribe's outfield. He hits right-handed and has upside remaining. Again-Salazar plus two a prospect may begin some valid discussions."

 

Pleskoff isn't the greatest source, but he's a decent baseball guy and sees Santana having more value than Salazar. I think those putting Salazar ahead of Santana are ignoring significant injury history/risk.

 

Yes Bernie is a decent baseball guy but your taking a quote from Dec 2017 when (in absence of other options) the cost to get a player like Domingo Santana would have been higher. Now people have looked at Santana in greater detail & the Brewers impacted (lowered) his value by geting Yelich & Cain.

 

It comes down this: Both players are with risks & flaws. Both are under team control for the same length of time (2018 plus 3 more seasons). The value of pitching is higher than the value of hitting/ power as we just had a record number of home runs hit & 117 players hit 20 or more homers (41 hit for 30+ homers) in the 2017 regular season.

 

I don't buy the Brewers impacted his value bit at all. HH noted that teams lowered their offers for him, but that will only be temporary and is simply GM's trying to posture. As long as multiple teams are seriously involved, we'll get fair value as the team are competing against each other. HH noted 3 obvious teams in the mix, and Arizona should also be considered a team in the mix as the Dbacks have expressed interest in JD Martinez.

 

And if your argument is risk, that's a poor one. Santana hasn't had significant injury issues like Salazar has, and has had a much more consistent professional career.

 

I get that generally pitching > hitting, but both players are relatively equally productive while Santana offers much less risk and more upside than Salazar...and at a cheaper cost. Also, Salazar has one less year of team control...fyi.

[Devinep]

Sign Walker to a 2 year deal, which is what the market looks to be for him. Then he transitions to a utility role at the end of 2019 when Hiura is brought up (not in 2018).

 

This also allows for the Brewers to have a backup at 1B if Braun moves there and Thames/Aguilar are moved.

 

Otherwise hopefully get a prospect in a trade for Perez or Villar

[JCREW]

MadThinker,

 

You seem to have a foot in MKE and a foot in CLE.

 

How does the average Indians fan react to something like Santana and Ponce for Kipnis and Salazar?

[Devinep]

Why give up anything for Kipnis? He makes a lot, was bad last year, and Walker doesn’t have many fits anymore

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'd be cautionary on Hiura advancing to the ML club and contributing positively. I'd expect more like a 600s OPS as your early callup...kinda like Brinson?

 

Gotta recall now, the Brewers don't need a top 4 in the batting lineup.

The logical 2b is going to be Kipnis. Which regardless of money, makes our 2b a lot better a call than suggesting to Villar returning to '16 form. Being concerned to Kipnis' OBP last year really ignores his 6years prior over .340 avg. One could wonder if a move to MP and the NL Central might produce more HRs than he has for Cleveland, something he was generally predicted to be in the 25HR range coming up but never achieved to that. He's also a better defender and up the middle defense is something lauded on the Stearns agenda.

[SandyTolan]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

What if the Brewers added Hernan in addition to whatever they're already offering? He might not be their everyday 2B but could be serviceable; that way the Brewers would avoid an IF logjam as well.

[JohnBriggs12]

Go with a Sogard/Perez platoon. Both had good platoon splits in 2017.

[Warning Track Power]

Looking strictly from a lineup perspective, with the presumption of a Santana-Salazar straight-up deal (which I believe to be fair), I like the lineup of:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker or Kipnis

6. Thames/Aguilar

 

Without re-signing Walker or trading for Kipnis, the lineup looks a little shallow with a 6-7-8 of Pina-Sogard/Villar-Arcia.

[Boomer5]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers give up a 24 year old 3 WAR player for an expensive broken down 2B and an always injured pitcher? Let alone add more to the deal?

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

Why not include Sogard in this deal for the Indians? Something where they use Chisenhall at 3b and Ramirez at 2b, with a rotation between the 4? You acquire Kipnis one of Villar/Sogard is moving elsewhere but the 25man roster. If it's Villar, well, he's a poor defender but it's someone with 3b experience cheap with upside.

 

The Ponce idea, I like him, he's already produced in AA which likely makes him #1 in next callups after Burnes(should he be traded) Personally when I watched him predraft and his tools it made me think of Nelson only with a worrisome delivery. I think Ponce is a guy who can take the Nelson progression and that upside is worth stashing. Throwing Diplan out there as a buy-low on Cleveland's part could be a sell as well as Bickford possibility over a guy like Ponce.

[DR28]

Looking strictly from a lineup perspective, with the presumption of a Santana-Salazar straight-up deal (which I believe to be fair), I like the lineup of:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker or Kipnis

6. Thames/Aguilar

 

Without re-signing Walker or trading for Kipnis, the lineup looks a little shallow with a 6-7-8 of Pina-Sogard/Villar-Arcia.

 

Add Lucroy as the 5 hole hitter and things look better... I would rather have Luc/Pina then Pina/Vogt.

[Boomer5]

Looking strictly from a lineup perspective, with the presumption of a Santana-Salazar straight-up deal (which I believe to be fair), I like the lineup of:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker or Kipnis

6. Thames/Aguilar

 

Without re-signing Walker or trading for Kipnis, the lineup looks a little shallow with a 6-7-8 of Pina-Sogard/Villar-Arcia.

 

I don't agree Santana for Salazar is fair because Salazar is not a workhorse TOR guy but I agree this isn't a great line up overall. We really could use Santana's bat.

[JCREW]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

I don’t see the Indians’ side in a vacuum. They would lose a 2-3 WAR pitcher and a 1-2 WAR 2B and gain a 2-3 WAR outfielder.

 

They would save a bunch of money on Kipnis that could be used to add a free agent SP or 2B. Also, Mejia can play some 3B starts allowing Ramirez to play more at 2B.

 

So they’d have an upgraded OF, money to spend, and more spots for Mejia to play. I can see that being attractive to them.

[TJseven7]

Looking strictly from a lineup perspective, with the presumption of a Santana-Salazar straight-up deal (which I believe to be fair), I like the lineup of:

 

1. Cain

2. Yelich

3. Braun

4. Shaw

5. Walker or Kipnis

6. Thames/Aguilar

 

Without re-signing Walker or trading for Kipnis, the lineup looks a little shallow with a 6-7-8 of Pina-Sogard/Villar-Arcia.

 

That's my reason for not wanting to deal Santana. In the scenerio I'd actually go a step further with phillips120/broxton40 in the 6 hole. But that makes 2b even more critical. Braun/thames still goes 1b with braun in LF for some OF rest. About 25 games of yelich and cain.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers give up a 24 year old 3 WAR player for an expensive broken down 2B and an always injured pitcher? Let alone add more to the deal?

 

Kipnis has had 4 3.9WAR or higher seasons in last 6 years. Salazar has had a 2.9 and 3.3 2 of last 3years. Put their 2015 WAR together and it was 7.8.

 

Cleveland is logjammed at SP and we are with OF.

 

You can also add Kipnis has 2 years remaining not picking up his 3rd year option as Hiura at that time should be locked in to a 2b roster deserving spot(we hope)

 

IF the deal went down as suggested above for Santana and spare pieces, you have the potential on the two for 2 years and at the same time in 2 years you've now kept Burnes, Peralta, Ponce, Hiura, and Lutz who should become positive producers for us. It's a perfect bridge the gap with upside.

[MadThinker88]

MadThinker,

You seem to have a foot in MKE and a foot in CLE.

How does the average Indians fan react to something like Santana and Ponce for Kipnis and Salazar?

 

you ask & I will respond...

 

The average Indian fan would go nuts with the idea of Santana only for Kipnis & Salazar. Every fan (even those not thrilled with Salazar over the past 1.5 seasons) would expect more than 1 piece back for him alone. The question becomes what is the other piece. Kipnis is still a fan favorite so they would expect something for him alone.

 

So I would echo A Swing & a Drive (Tom Hamilton's catch phrase by the way): Santana & Ponce would not be sufficient.

Part of my reasoning on that is I don't believe Ponce would be a target for the Tribe. They have a handful of other pitchers being crowded at the AA level pitching wise (the group at high a Lynchburg was very good last season- McKenzie, Bieber, & Civale among them).

 

So if the prospect piece (or pieces) was different, there might be a chance. IMHO if it was Freddy Peralta & a lotto ticket, there might be a chance because the deal could help in the 2018 push (Peralta might be able to assist the 2018 club in the bullpen & the change having Santana).

 

The average Tribe fan would enter a 'wait & see' mode thinking 1) the Tribe got ok value in the trade (everyone wants more) and 2) wondering what would be done with the Tribe salary savings - is there another (non-MKE) deal being made or an extension being signed by someone like Lindor/ Cody Allen/ etc.

[SandyTolan]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers give up a 24 year old 3 WAR player for an expensive broken down 2B and an always injured pitcher? Let alone add more to the deal?

 

Kipnis has had 4 3.9WAR or higher seasons in last 6 years. Salazar has had a 2.9 and 3.3 2 of last 3years. Put their 2015 WAR together and it was 7.8.

 

Cleveland is logjammed at SP and we are with OF.

 

You can also add Kipnis has 2 years remaining not picking up his 3rd year option as Hiura at that time should be locked in to a 2b roster deserving spot(we hope)

 

IF the deal went down as suggested above for Santana and spare pieces, you have the potential on the two for 2 years and at the same time in 2 years you've now kept Burnes, Peralta, Ponce, Hiura, and Lutz who should become positive producers for us. It's a perfect bridge the gap with upside.

 

 

Good point - I love that bridge idea, much more than 4-5 years and rebuild, which would have been more likely had the Crew traded a second big haul for Archer. On top of that, Cain's contract calls for full no-trade in its first year, and gradually reduces to I think only 5 teams in its final year. So if somehow Corey Ray or another surprise producer is ready for CF within the next 3-4 years, Cain could be dealt for prospects or whomever...

[Boomer5]

I don't think Santana and Ponce are enough for Salazar AND Kipnis.

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back.

 

If Kipnis is dealt, who plays 2B for the Tribe? I guess the Indians could move Chisenhall back to 3B and Jose Ramirez back to 2B to fit Domingo in the corner OF but I heard that Chisenhall is terrible at 3B.

 

Just can't see why Indians would want to weaken their rotation depth and their overall defense just to add a bit of offensive upgrade in Santana.

 

Why in the world would the Brewers give up a 24 year old 3 WAR player for an expensive broken down 2B and an always injured pitcher? Let alone add more to the deal?

 

Kipnis has had 4 3.9WAR or higher seasons in last 6 years. Salazar has had a 2.9 and 3.3 2 of last 3years. Put their 2015 WAR together and it was 7.8.

 

Cleveland is logjammed at SP and we are with OF.

 

You can also add Kipnis has 2 years remaining not picking up his 3rd year option as Hiura at that time should be locked in to a 2b roster deserving spot(we hope)

 

IF the deal went down as suggested above for Santana and spare pieces, you have the potential on the two for 2 years and at the same time in 2 years you've now kept Burnes, Peralta, Ponce, Hiura, and Lutz who should become positive producers for us. It's a perfect bridge the gap with upside.

 

Yuck. Kippnis is owed $30 M and had a 0.4 WAR. He is a negative to any team at this point in career.

 

Salazar has incredible stuff but he is fragile and is coming off a 1.3 WAR year in 2017.

 

Together they aren't worth a 24 year old OF that put up Santana's numbers.

 

That said, when you are going for it, I guess the Brewers FO can justify anything.

[KeithStone53151]

MadThinker,

You seem to have a foot in MKE and a foot in CLE.

How does the average Indians fan react to something like Santana and Ponce for Kipnis and Salazar?

 

you ask & I will respond...

 

The average Indian fan would go nuts with the idea of Santana only for Kipnis & Salazar. Every fan (even those not thrilled with Salazar over the past 1.5 seasons) would expect more than 1 piece back for him alone. The question becomes what is the other piece. Kipnis is still a fan favorite so they would expect something for him alone.

 

So I would echo A Swing & a Drive (Tom Hamilton's catch phrase by the way): Santana & Ponce would not be sufficient.

Part of my reasoning on that is I don't believe Ponce would be a target for the Tribe. They have a handful of other pitchers being crowded at the AA level pitching wise (the group at high a Lynchburg was very good last season- McKenzie, Bieber, & Civale among them).

 

So if the prospect piece (or pieces) was different, there might be a chance. IMHO if it was Freddy Peralta & a lotto ticket, there might be a chance because the deal could help in the 2018 push (Peralta might be able to assist the 2018 club in the bullpen & the change having Santana).

 

The average Tribe fan would enter a 'wait & see' mode thinking 1) the Tribe got ok value in the trade (everyone wants more) and 2) wondering what would be done with the Tribe salary savings - is there another (non-MKE) deal being made or an extension being signed by someone like Lindor/ Cody Allen/ etc.

 

No way would Peralta be the piece. Being a fan favorite is literally meaningless to the Brewers, that shouldn't give him extra value. It might make the Indians less inclined to trade him...but at the same time we can go get Walker for probably less money, so why bother trading much for Kipnis if they are going to overprice him? This general dilemna is part of why I see the indians taking on some of the money but getting a prospect. I think 1-2 prospects in the caliber of Grisham/Ray/Gatewood/Pennington/ernesto/etc would likely be the added return for both Salazar and Kipnis if the Indians eat $3-5 million per year of his contract.

 

Also, all the general anti-Santana talk you hear is likely teams trying to keep his value low. All GM speak, he's clearly a very valuable player and his upside is higher than either player coming this way...

[MadThinker88]

If Tribe deals Kipnis, JRam goes to 2B.. Yandy Diaz (or Urshela or someone else already in Tribe system not named Chisenhall) plays 3B. Villar, Perez, Jesus Aguilar hold no value for Cleveland

 

I wrote it before, Chisenhall makes Braun look like a gold glover at 3B. He is not heading back there.

 

BTW - a healthy Kipnis is batting leadoff or 2nd (in MKE or in CLE). He is misplaced lower in the batting order.

[JCREW]

 

you ask & I will respond...

 

The average Indian fan would go nuts with the idea of Santana only for Kipnis & Salazar. Every fan (even those not thrilled with Salazar over the past 1.5 seasons) would expect more than 1 piece back for him alone. The question becomes what is the other piece. Kipnis is still a fan favorite so they would expect something for him alone.

 

So I would echo A Swing & a Drive (Tom Hamilton's catch phrase by the way): Santana & Ponce would not be sufficient.

Part of my reasoning on that is I don't believe Ponce would be a target for the Tribe. They have a handful of other pitchers being crowded at the AA level pitching wise (the group at high a Lynchburg was very good last season- McKenzie, Bieber, & Civale among them).

 

So if the prospect piece (or pieces) was different, there might be a chance. IMHO if it was Freddy Peralta & a lotto ticket, there might be a chance because the deal could help in the 2018 push (Peralta might be able to assist the 2018 club in the bullpen & the change having Santana).

 

The average Tribe fan would enter a 'wait & see' mode thinking 1) the Tribe got ok value in the trade (everyone wants more) and 2) wondering what would be done with the Tribe salary savings - is there another (non-MKE) deal being made or an extension being signed by someone like Lindor/ Cody Allen/ etc.

 

Thanks. Very insightful. It seems like a lot hangs on the GMs’ valuations of the Kipnis contract and the competition (or lack thereof) of teams trying to get Santana.

[MadThinker88]

......

 

Also, the Indians are contenders. Why would they be so motivated to move a SP? Not so sure that they are. I realize they need a spot to open up for Clevinger but Josh Tomlin isn't going to hold anyone back. .....

 

I believe the Cleveland FO & Tito Francona disagrees with you.

Otherwise they would not have picked up the $3M option for Tomlin this season. Saving a few million could have made a difference on other moves getting completed already this off season.

 

The goal of each FO & Manager isn't to please the fan base & have the fans agree with them. Its to win games, achieve the playoffs and after making the playoffs, winning the title. Winning the title will please a vast majority of the fans.

[Warning Track Power]

If Tribe deals Kipnis, JRam goes to 2B.. Yandy Diaz (or Urshela or someone else already in Tribe system not named Chisenhall) plays 3B. Villar, Perez, Jesus Aguilar hold no value for Cleveland

 

I wrote it before, Chisenhall makes Braun look like a gold glover at 3B. He is not heading back there.

 

BTW - a healthy Kipnis is batting leadoff or 2nd (in MKE or in CLE). He is misplaced lower in the batting order.

Not with Cain/Yelich (career .300 AVG/.342 OBP /career .290 AVG/.369 OBP) in the 1/2 hole in Milwaukee. Kipnis (career .268 AVG/.340 OBP) is in the #5 or #6 spot in Milwaukee.

[Point Beer Is Best]

At his current salary, Kipnis has negative trade value. The idea that it would take Santana, Peralta plus another player for players with several warts in Salazar and Kipnis seems like a total nonstarter to me. Milwaukee would be assuming the salary and injury risk in exchange for a some pretty nice pieces heading back. Maybe for Clevenger, but not for an injury risk like Salazar.