O's

[Madhawk23]

Is it known yet what direction the Orioles are moving towards? I know they've wanted to move Machado this off season, and now are without their closer for the year due to injury. Are they in tear down/rebuild mode yet?

 

If so - would we have any interest in making a run at either Gausman or Bundy? I know Gausman had a really bad year last year, but perhaps he's the type of guy that might be due for a rebound. And, I think Bundy has 4 years of control left, right (which might make him an untouchable)?

 

If we can't get Archer (or don't want to pay the demands for Archer), I'm trying to find other good SP trade candidates - ideally guys with 3-4 years left of control.

[Dadbauer]

Bundy HAS to be untouchable, right?

[KeithStone53151]

Bundy HAS to be untouchable, right?

 

Why would Bundy be untouchable? Especially on a team nearing a tear down like the orioles are...

[jerichoholicninja]

Baltimore has no clue what they're doing. They won't rebuild until there's nothing left to rebuild with.

[Madhawk23]

Would the O's have any interest in Santana as part of a package?

 

Brewers get: Bundy

 

O's get: Santana, Ortiz, Peralta

 

Does this get it done? Or, do the O's demand that either Burnes/Hiura is a part of this deal? I'm guessing they'd probably want Burnes or Hiura - but I'm not sure if I'd want to give up one of them and Santana in a package for Bundy.

[KeithStone53151]

Would the O's have any interest in Santana as part of a package?

 

Brewers get: Bundy

 

O's get: Santana, Ortiz, Peralta

 

Does this get it done? Or, do the O's demand that either Burnes/Hiura is a part of this deal? I'm guessing they'd probably want Burnes or Hiura - but I'm not sure if I'd want to give up one of them and Santana in a package for Bundy.

 

I doubt it. They don't have enough quality pitching as is. I don't think they trade Bundy until mid-season...when they are down 12 games and punt on the year and trade Machado. At that point, they won't have interest in Santana.

[Dadbauer]

The problem with the O's is pitching is always their problem - couple that with their stubborn "won't rebuild" kind of attitude and they would end up not motivated to trade Bundy. If they DID decide to trade him, I don't know if Santana would be the target - they would likely want young pitchers.

[MKEguy]

From my expert and in depth analysis, the O’s cherish their rental-typebplayers more than this forum does our prospects, myself included sometimes.

 

Like Jericho said, they’re only going to rebuild when they don’t know they’re rebuilding.

 

I’m 2008, they tried to have a competitive team but sucked. The next draft they got Machado. That’s the orioles rebuilding. It’s nothing like we’ve done.

 

What I’m getting at is, I don’t see them trading any major leaguer away any time soon.

[Madhawk23]

And, I'm assuming that Toronto is in a similar boat as the Orioles, correct? A team that has had recent success in the playoffs and probably doesn't want the PR nightmare of completely tearing things down this soon and starting over - even if it makes sense to go that route.

 

I know Stroman has been brought up before on this board, and I'm guessing it would take a similar package of Santana, Burnes, Peralta and another decent prospect to even get Toronto to call you back. And, I'm guessing they too don't have a real need for Santana right now - especially if they did decide to tear down and start over.

[JCREW]

And, I'm assuming that Toronto is in a similar boat as the Orioles, correct? A team that has had recent success in the playoffs and probably doesn't want the PR nightmare of completely tearing things down this soon and starting over - even if it makes sense to go that route.

 

I know Stroman has been brought up before on this board, and I'm guessing it would take a similar package of Santana, Burnes, Peralta and another decent prospect to even get Toronto to call you back. And, I'm guessing they too don't have a real need for Santana right now - especially if they did decide to tear down and start over.

 

The more I think about all of Archer, Bundy, and Stroman, it just doesn't make sense for those teams to want Santana. They don't need a player who is going to be in or near FA right when their windows are opening.

[Dadbauer]

I agree that I don't see Santana making sense logically for a team looking to rebuild by trading their only good young SP, but it's the Orioles so my guess is as good as anyone's.

[JohnBriggs12]

Bundy HAS to be untouchable, right?

 

Why would Bundy be untouchable? Especially on a team nearing a tear down like the orioles are...

 

Because he's got 4 years of control and hasn't reached his peak value. They have one more year of Machado. I expect them to see if they can catch lightening in a bottle with some veteran FA pitching then sell them off if their longshot bid fails.

[Boomer5]

If I were a GM teams like the Os and Red Sox would be on constant speed dial. They are so dumb they will say yes eventually to anything.

[SRB]

Bundy's peripherals are a huge red flag. Bringing him to pitch in Miller Park would be a disaster.

 

You're basically paying entirely for the chance that he figures out how to be a good pitcher. I'm not sure I would even give up Ortiz for him.

 

Are teams marketing departments really so good that they can extract value for mediocre pitchers simply because they were top prospects 5 years ago?

[Dadbauer]

I imagine Bundy may be available at the deadline for a nice haul if the O's are out of contention - they likely will be in a tough AL East.

[JosephC]

I still wouldn't mind the idea of the Brewers trying to get Bundy, Schoop and Brach in one package deal. Decent chance that the package for those three players wouldn't be that much higher then trading for Archer. There are the obvious drawbacks. Bundy still has upside but may not be better than the average starter the Brewers have now. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past. Brach is only under contract for one more season. But the Brewers would be getting 7 years of service time for major leaguers and they fill starter, reliever and second baseman all with one move.

 

I'd be the first to admit that I really don't have a clue about how the Orioles are run. Always have perceived them as the type of organization who need to do it the Ray's way since they just will not have the money of the Yankees and Red Sox. But then looking at Cot's I see they ran a 165 million dollar payroll last year. Have no clue as to how they got to that number considering the lack of star power on their roster. But when they are paying J.J. Hardy 14 million and Ubaldo Jimenez 13.5 million, I guess those type of numbers add up pretty quick. All that I know is that they have to trade Machado this year. I just don't see re-signing him being a smart move as a 300 million commitment is pretty likely and an organization cannot let a guy like that walk and only get a compensatory pick in return. After that, and looking at thier rotation, why exactly wouldn't they be in full re-build mode? I wouldn't mind throwing a decent offer in front of them for a Brundy/Schoop/Brach package and see how they react.

 

A couple more Orioles notes:

 

I had thrown out the Bundy/Schoop/Brach concept before and someone here pointed out that the Orioles weren't looking to trade Schoop. I had heard the same thing. But it looks like Schoop skipped the Orioles FanFest and it sounds like he ruffled some feathers in doing so.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-schoop-20180127-story.html

 

And as far as my opinion that the Orioles should be going in complete rebuild mode. Right now if the season started they would probably be looking at a rotation something like:

-Kevin Gausman (4.68 ERA, 1.49 WHIP in 186 2/3 innings last year)

-Dylan Bundy (4.24 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 169 2/3 innings last year)

-Gabriel Ynoa (4.92 ERA, 1.51 WHIP in 53 lifetime MLB innings)

-Miguel Castro (4.38 ERA, 1.37 WHIP in 98 2/3 lifetime MLB innings)

-Alec Asher (5.55 ERA, 1.39 WHIP in 116 2/3 lifetime MLB innings)

And to make things worse, it sounds like the two free agent pitchers the Orioles are pursing are:

-Chris Tillman (7.84 ERA, 1.89 WHIP in 93 innings last year)

-Drew Hutchinson (4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP in 417 2/3 lifetime MLB innings...spent 2017 in AAA)

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-orioles-interested-drew-hutchison-180010390.html

So again, why not put an offer on the table for some of their assets and see what the price would be? They cannot seriously be considering themselves contenders during the next couple of seasons.

[JCREW]

Thanks for the info. Good reads.

 

If I was an O’s fan, I would be a bit upset about Schoop skipping out, but I would be even more upset about Buck throwing him under the bus. I don’t think that a preseason presser is an acceptable time to slam a player like that.

 

Something vague would be far better IMhO.

[madbad2000]

I still wouldn't mind the idea of the Brewers trying to get Bundy, Schoop and Brach in one package deal. Decent chance that the package for those three players wouldn't be that much higher then trading for Archer. There are the obvious drawbacks. Bundy still has upside but may not be better than the average starter the Brewers have now. Schoop has had OBP issues in the past. Brach is only under contract for one more season. But the Brewers would be getting 7 years of service time for major leaguers and they fill starter, reliever and second baseman all with one move.

 

I'd be the first to admit that I really don't have a clue about how the Orioles are run. Always have perceived them as the type of organization who need to do it the Ray's way since they just will not have the money of the Yankees and Red Sox. But then looking at Cot's I see they ran a 165 million dollar payroll last year. Have no clue as to how they got to that number considering the lack of star power on their roster. But when they are paying J.J. Hardy 14 million and Ubaldo Jimenez 13.5 million, I guess those type of numbers add up pretty quick. All that I know is that they have to trade Machado this year. I just don't see resigning him being a smart move as a 300 million commitment is pretty likely and an organization cannot let a guy like that walk and only get a compensatory pick in return. After that, and looking at thier rotation, why exactly wouldn't they be in full re-build mode. I wouldn't mind throwing a decent offer in front of them for a Brundy/Schoop/Brach package and see how they react.

 

A couple more Orioles notes:

 

I had thrown out the Bundy/Schoop/Brach concept before and someone here pointed out that the Orioles weren't looking to trade Schoop. I had heard the same thing. But it looks like Schoop skipped the Orioles FanFest and it sounds like he ruffled some feathers in doing so.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bs-sp-orioles-schoop-20180127-story.html

 

 

I've spent the past 4 years in the Baltimore area (20+ minutes from Camden yards) and I listen to sports talk quite a bit. The Orioles are the team in this town when they win and the fans pack the place. There is huge incentive and expectation to win consistently. With the historically terrible year that they had with starting pitchers, they need to find some. In terms of payroll, the Orioles can spend some money. They are not at the tip top, but they can easily be in the top ten year in and year out. Once you get past NY, LA, BOS, Chicago Cubs..the Orioles would fall into that next tier. Think Philadelphia money and the same blue collar chip on their shoulder. The owner will spend to get wins and be in the hunt. The city has been spoiled with winning through the Os and Ravens the past 5-10 years. They are also nearing the end with Showalter as Manager and want to give it one last hail mary. I think it's fairly obvious that they need to break it down. They have a few nice pieces to sell and some nice young building blocks for contention. Starting pitching is a black hole and they would need to get 1-2 arms back in every deal. I would punt this year in a sort of Yankees reload deal. Trade Machado and Schoop for as many arms as you can pry away. If you can find a sucker for Chris Davis, great. If not you have to hope he puts it together and chases 60 bombs. It is crazy how bad this team needs starting pitching. The Britton injury was the dagger. They have had a great bullpen recently and has been a big part of their success.

 

Schoop is best friends with Manny Machado. The talk of trading Machado must not have sat well with him to make him skip fanfest.

[JosephC]

Would the O's have any interest in Santana as part of a package?

 

Brewers get: Bundy

 

O's get: Santana, Ortiz, Peralta

 

Does this get it done? Or, do the O's demand that either Burnes/Hiura is a part of this deal? I'm guessing they'd probably want Burnes or Hiura - but I'm not sure if I'd want to give up one of them and Santana in a package for Bundy.

 

Bundy was a 2.7 WAR player last year but Steamer and Depth Chart only project him as a 1.3 WAR player next year. I really don't think he has any greater value than Santana. If anything, I'd guess the Santana would be valued at an average of 0.3-0.5 WAR per season over Bundy each of the next four seasons. If that's the case then Santana is probably worth about 12-15 million surplus dollars over Bundy. Like with a Salazar trade with Cleveland, the prospect pieces included would have to favor the Brewers, not the Orioles/Indians.

 

If I were in Stearns chair I just might be giving the Orioles a call today and offer Santana, Luis Ortiz and Trent Grisham for Bundy, Schoop, Brach and see what kind of reaction I would get. Schoop was a 4.6 WAR player last year and would have to project as a 3+ WAR player in 2018 even with an OBP regression, so IMO the initial offer would be way short. I'd fully expect the Orioles to reject the deal but it would be a good starting point for negotiations. Orioles would have to have an interest in Santana though, because subtracting him means adding about 60-70 million in prospect value and that means Hiura and Burnes have to be involved and I'm not interested in moving those players after the Yelich deal unless it's for legitimate, top of the rotation type pitching.

[Outlander]

I really don't think Bundy is an upgrade over Woodruff so wouldn't even bother with him since I think the Brewers are looking to add a SP but somebody toward the front end of the rotation vs the back end. Schoop would be a great add at 2B but don't know if the pieces fit with Santana as the Orioles outfield seems kind of set and they have Trumbo at DH for a couple of more years.

 

Edit: It looks like the Orioles might not be ready to hand over a job to Austin Hays so I guess they could keep him in the minors one more year and it is the final year of Adams Jones contract. So Santana in right could work for the Orioles.