Three-team trade idea with ARI and TBR

[clancyphile]

Brewers get:

RHP Zach Greinke from ARI (pay $20 million of salary through contract)

SS Willy Adames from TBR

OF/1B Joe McCarthy from TBR

LHP Travis Ott from TBR

RHP Ryan Atkinson from ARI

 

TBR gets:

OF Domingo Santana from MIL

RHP Taylor Clarke from ARI

RHP Phil Bickford from MIL

RHP Brandon Woodruff from MIL

 

ARI gets:

RHP Chris Archer from TBR

SS Orlando Arcia from MIL

C Jacob Nottingham from MIL

[ThisIsMyCrew]

Orlando Arcia is probably as untouchable as Hader. That would make for a tough sell. That is Avery creative trade though!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Orlando Arcia is probably as untouchable as Hader.

 

I agree ... there's no way Arcia is going anywhere.

 

Also, as I alluded to in the other thread, I'm not sure where you are thinking, Clancy, that Bickford has ANY value? He's coming off a year where he was both suspended and hurt.

 

Plus, Arizona makes out like absolute bandits in that deal. Sure, they are paying off quite a bit of Greinke's salary, but they end up with Archer AND Arcia, who are extremely affordable.

[Jkromb]

This is a bad bad idea for the Brewers..

[JCREW]

The way rumors about a big ask for Archer have been going, I have a hard time seeing TBR taking that package for Archer, let alone giving up Archer and Adames.

[mlloyd10]

holy cow is that bad for the Brewers

[MNBrew]

TB's rumored ask for Archer is far more valuable than what they're getting in this proposal, and they're also giving up 3 additional players.

 

Clancy, your trade ideas are always enjoyable to read. But I have a hard time seeing this one as terribly plausible.

[KeithStone53151]

I also don't think TB is getting enough to move both Archer and Adames. This is a horrible horrible trade for Tampa. Also this is an outstanding deal for Arizona. They get probably an equivalent pitcher for 1/5 of the cost AND Arcia...

[KeithStone53151]

I like the idea of a 3 team trade for a starter, sending Santana to either Arizona or Boston and getting Duffy/Fulmer/Archer while the 3rd team gets prospects from both sides. I just don't like the idea of targeting Greinke. I would look at a 3 team trade with Arizona getting Santana, us getting Archer, and the Rays getting Pavin Smith/a back end top 10 from arizona/luis ortiz/grisham/and a future bullpen arm(houser/williams/bickford/etc). Maybe not exactly that, but something like that. Tampa gets their future all-star and a few other significant pieces.

[brewcrewdue80]

holy cow is that bad for the Brewers

 

ditto TB i mean its less than archer to milw straight up. Arizona makes a reverse monster return vs history

[JosephC]

I have the surplus value changing hands in this deal as:

 

Arizona = +87.13 million

Milwaukee = -5.17 million

Tampa Bay = -81.96 million

 

From the Brewer's end it's a fair deal but it's way lop-sided for Arizona and against Tampa Bay.

 

It's very possible that the two most best assets in this deal are Chris Archer and Willy Adames and having Tampa Bay part with both of them and getting back Domingo Santana as the headliner just isn't realistic. Maybe if Arcia also went to Tampa Bay it would make more sense as Adames is their shortstop of the future. The folks that think the Brewers got screwed in this deal are under-estimating the value of Adames. He probably is in the same territory as Mejia from Cleveland when it comes to prospect value.

[brewcrewdue80]

No, I think its undervaluing Arcia/Woodruff/Santana plus prospects for Grienke/Adames and who? Id estimate these guys are worse than Phil Bickford because why even trade for Bickford vs at least a half dozen other equal options?

 

I just dont get in any way how Arizona ends up with Arcia&Archer. For Grienke and 2 never heard of prospects (lottery tickets?) 20million is not buying Arcia&Santana/Woodruff

 

I mean if Im the Brewers I send them Woodruff for the 20mil and Grienke and walk away only mildly disgusted.

[Brewer Fever]

I held off as long as I could opening this but I was craving Brewers news.

 

 

 

I immediately regret this decision.

[clancyphile]

No, I think its undervaluing Arcia/Woodruff/Santana plus prospects for Grienke/Adames and who? Id estimate these guys are worse than Phil Bickford because why even trade for Bickford vs at least a half dozen other equal options?

 

I just dont get in any way how Arizona ends up with Arcia&Archer. For Grienke and 2 never heard of prospects (lottery tickets?) 20million is not buying Arcia&Santana/Woodruff

 

I mean if Im the Brewers I send them Woodruff for the 20mil and Grienke and walk away only mildly disgusted.

 

Part of the goal was to get a TOR guy (Greinke) for only $15 million a year. The rotation at the start of 2018 is Greinke, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter. The Crew can take their time with Nelson, I'll go toe-to-toe with the Darvish-led rotation of the Cubs with that rotation. Suter can handle the Cubs just fine - he pitched 12 and a third innings against `em allowed one run, ten hits, and one walk.

 

The price for that was Arizona gets Arcia and Archer and Nottingham. I've had enough questions about Arcia's bat since he posted a .723 OPS at Colorado Springs that I'm cool with dealing him.

 

The Brewers, OTOH, shoot Tampa a cheap replacement for Archer (Woodruff), and Santana to be their DH (upgrade over Duda), and the Rays get a pitching prospect a year or two away in Taylor Clarke (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=clarke000tay), Arizona's 3rd-rounder in 2015.

 

Now, Tampa filling their DH and getting a young starter with some upside from the Crew, well, a fiar return is Adames (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=adames000wil), Joe McCarthy (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=663411) is a cheap replacement for Thames in two years with VERY good OBP skills, and Travis Ott (https://www.baseball-reference.com/redirect.fcgi?player=1&mlb_ID=643477) could be another Josh Hader at worst. Plus Arizona throws in Ryan Atkinson (https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=atkins001rya), who is probably a year or two away.

 

The 25-man roster:

2b: Villar

cf: Cain

rf: Yelich

1b: Thames

lf: Braun

3b: Shaw

c: Pina

ss: Adames

pitcher

bench: Vogt, Perez, Sogard, Phillips, Aguilar

rotation: Greinke, Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Suter

bullpen: Knebel, Hader, Logan, Jeffress, Albers, T. Williams, Gallardo

[brewcrewdue80]

Not every bat has to be .800 OPS when the player plays great defense future GG quality. Because he posted .723 OPS in 100 games, but fail .731 at the ML level last year. He's improving on something that has always been behind his defensive ability. And he's 23.

 

He's the youngest batter this Century with over 4 games played to play for Colorado Springs in a season. What is he supposed to post for you to think his bat would be alright moving forward? Give him games at generally the youngest ages that pass through Colorado repeating at 22. What does he have to post at that age?

 

Brendan Ryan has 15 career BWAR mostly earned his first 6years with a .658 and .580 OPS split 4 years for Stl and 3 for Seattle. Age 25-31.

 

How sad would it be to give up your best defensive SSs at the time to Acquire Grienke twice as a Franchise? And Arcia is far better than Alcides like, really really far.

[clancyphile]

Not every bat has to be .800 OPS when the player plays great defense future GG quality. Because he posted .723 OPS in 100 games, but fail .731 at the ML level last year. He's improving on something that has always been behind his defensive ability. And he's 23.

 

He's the youngest batter this Century with over 4 games played to play for Colorado Springs in a season. What is he supposed to post for you to think his bat would be alright moving forward? Give him games at generally the youngest ages that pass through Colorado repeating at 22. What does he have to post at that age?

 

Brendan Ryan has 15 career BWAR mostly earned his first 6years with a .658 and .580 OPS split 4 years for Stl and 3 for Seattle. Age 25-31.

 

How sad would it be to give up your best defensive SSs at the time to Acquire Grienke twice as a Franchise? And Arcia is far better than Alcides like, really really far.

 

If the Crew gets Adames, they get a young SS with better OBP skills. He'd be 22.

 

Right now, Arcia is cheap, and he's OK. The problem is, I'm not convinced about the bat - Arcia gives me a Royce Clayton vibe, and in 2003, Clayton wasn't worth $2 million a year, not when the Crew could have re-signed Jose Hernandez.

 

Let someone else pay Arcia $10 million a year as a good field no hit shortstop. Milwaukee can't afford that. Better to get Adames, who brings more offense to the table.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If the Crew gets Adames, they get a young SS with better OBP skills. He'd be 22.

 

Right now, Arcia is cheap, and he's OK. The problem is, I'm not convinced about the bat - Arcia gives me a Royce Clayton vibe, and in 2003, Clayton wasn't worth $2 million a year, not when the Crew could have re-signed Jose Hernandez.

 

Let someone else pay Arcia $10 million a year as a good field no hit shortstop. Milwaukee can't afford that. Better to get Adames, who brings more offense to the table.

 

It is also questionable whether Adames even has the defensive mettle to stay at SS. A lot of scouting reports say that if he stays there, his defense would be below average. Most are profiling him as a 2B. While that is also a position of need for the Brewers, I'm not trading a 23-year-old SS who is maturing with the bat and is already close to All-World on defense unless I'm sure that Dubon can handle SS at the big league level.

[JosephC]

Arcia is not a no-hit shortstop. According the Fangraphs, the slash line for MLB shortstops last year was .260/.315/.407/.722. Arcia slashed .277/.324/.407/.731 last year. So he was either slightly above average or the argument could be made that he was slightly below average when factoring in the home park. Considering he was only in his age 22 season, I'll take the .277/.324/.407/.731 all day considering he's more likely to get better rather than worse.

[clancyphile]

If the Crew gets Adames, they get a young SS with better OBP skills. He'd be 22.

 

Right now, Arcia is cheap, and he's OK. The problem is, I'm not convinced about the bat - Arcia gives me a Royce Clayton vibe, and in 2003, Clayton wasn't worth $2 million a year, not when the Crew could have re-signed Jose Hernandez.

 

Let someone else pay Arcia $10 million a year as a good field no hit shortstop. Milwaukee can't afford that. Better to get Adames, who brings more offense to the table.

 

It is also questionable whether Adames even has the defensive mettle to stay at SS. A lot of scouting reports say that if he stays there, his defense would be below average. Most are profiling him as a 2B. While that is also a position of need for the Brewers, I'm not trading a 23-year-old SS who is maturing with the bat and is already close to All-World on defense unless I'm sure that Dubon can handle SS at the big league level.

 

I think you're missing the point:

Unless Arcia's bat really improves, he's not worth what he will get in later arby years, much less free agency. Arcia regressed from an OPS of roughly .800 at Biloxi to .723 at Colorado Springs, arguably one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of professional baseball.

 

That's still a huge red flag.

 

The .731 OPS, by the way, is only that high because of a .848 OPS for the month of June. No other month in his major league career has been higher than .759 in that department.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think you're missing the point:

Unless Arcia's bat really improves, he's not worth what he will get in later arby years, much less free agency. Arcia regressed from an OPS of roughly .800 at Biloxi to .723 at Colorado Springs, arguably one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of professional baseball.

 

That's still a huge red flag.

 

The .731 OPS, by the way, is only that high because of a .848 OPS for the month of June. No other month in his major league career has been higher than .759 in that department.

 

You are trying to tell me that a 23-year-old SS can't improve with the bat. And I'm missing the point? Plus Arcia's defense is lightyears ahead of anything Adames is going to provide.

[clancyphile]

I think you're missing the point:

Unless Arcia's bat really improves, he's not worth what he will get in later arby years, much less free agency. Arcia regressed from an OPS of roughly .800 at Biloxi to .723 at Colorado Springs, arguably one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of professional baseball.

 

That's still a huge red flag.

 

The .731 OPS, by the way, is only that high because of a .848 OPS for the month of June. No other month in his major league career has been higher than .759 in that department.

 

You are trying to tell me that a 23-year-old SS can't improve with the bat. And I'm missing the point? Plus Arcia's defense is lightyears ahead of anything Adames is going to provide.

 

I'm not saying that improvement isn't possible.

 

I just see the red flag of Arcia's Colorado Springs numbers, the fact that his slightly above average 2017 OPS of .731 was mostly because he posted an OPS of .848 for June (no other month in his career has been over .759), and while I a, hoping for improvement, I don't know how much it will be, or if it will happen.

 

Adames offers a higher floor offensively, and superior OBP skills plus more pop. Maybe not as good on defense, but I think the offense makes up for it. He had an OPS of .776 at Durham, a much less hitter-friendly park than Colorado Springs.

[82brewcrew82]

I think you're missing the point:

Unless Arcia's bat really improves, he's not worth what he will get in later arby years, much less free agency. Arcia regressed from an OPS of roughly .800 at Biloxi to .723 at Colorado Springs, arguably one of the most hitter-friendly parks in all of professional baseball.

 

That's still a huge red flag.

 

The .731 OPS, by the way, is only that high because of a .848 OPS for the month of June. No other month in his major league career has been higher than .759 in that department.

 

You are trying to tell me that a 23-year-old SS can't improve with the bat. And I'm missing the point? Plus Arcia's defense is lightyears ahead of anything Adames is going to provide.

 

I'm not saying that improvement isn't possible.

 

I just see the red flag of Arcia's Colorado Springs numbers, the fact that his slightly above average 2017 OPS of .731 was mostly because he posted an OPS of .848 for June (no other month in his career has been over .759), and while I a, hoping for improvement, I don't know how much it will be, or if it will happen.

 

Adames offers a higher floor offensively, and superior OBP skills plus more pop. Maybe not as good on defense, but I think the offense makes up for it. He had an OPS of .776 at Durham, a much less hitter-friendly park than Colorado Springs.

So what is his OPS if you leave in June and take out his worst month? That logic isn't logical. You can't cherry pick. What about his 100 point jump in OPS from his rookie year to this past year? Are you saying the difference between Biloxi an CS means more than what he has done at the major league level?

[brooks_quichenick]

Arcia is still much younger than the average MLB player, and he's been well below the average at every stop in his pro career, but at every stop he made offensive improvements after some time at each level. I fully expect him to take a step forward and surprise with the bat this season.

 

I think a Francisco Lindor offensive comp is not out of the question for Arcia in the next year or two at all (probably not 33 HRs, but I think he's got 20+ potential coming very soon).

[A Swing and A Drive]

Orlando Arcia is going to be a WAY better MLB player than Willy Adames, IMO. (in the field AND with the bat)

 

So even if you took those two players out of the 3 team trade, I STILL think the Brewers would be getting hosed big time on this deal.

 

You'd be basically giving up Santana, Woodruff and Bickford for an over-priced/risky Zack Greinke and some prospect lotto tickets.

 

As much as I'd like Greinke back, that's too much to pay, IMO.

 

Greinke still has 4 years and $126M left on his contact. With this proposal Brewers would be getting him at 4 years/$106M. (ARZ kicking in $20M)

 

 

 

Why not keep Santana, Woodruff, Bickford as future trade chips and sign Jake Arrietta for 5 years/$106? (same rate Darvish got but one less year)

 

Greinke might have been better last season but he's 34 and Arrietta is only 31.