Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

[Fear The Chorizo]

bumping this thread, because I always enjoying looking at these discussions largely held well before the season started.

 

Fangraphs' final preseason record projections had the Braves at 73 wins, Nats at 92, Brewers at 79, Dbacks at 80, Rockies at 79, A's at 77, Mariners at 78, Blue Jays at 85, Red Sox at 92, Orioles 76, Rays 76. I'll grant them that historically great runs like the Red Sox are on are basically impossible to project preseason. However, when they are significantly off on projected records of 1/3 to 1/2 of MLB teams, it puts into perspective how difficult it is to try and forecast baseball - which IMO is why it's the greatest sport to be a fan of.

 

Here's to hoping Fangraphs adds a "Brewer Bias" correction factor to their projections next year, which should just add about 12 wins to whatever flawed system they use spits out in march 2019.

[homer]

If you had told me at the start of the year that Miley and Chacin would be their best pitchers, I'd have said the Fangraphs win estimate was too low.

[benji]

I am of the firm belief that these projection systems undervalue bullpens and defense. Look at the Royals run. I have no scientific proof to support my position yet lol.

[pacopete4]

It makes for a long off season of posters getting anxious about not signing the “best” free agents but it sure is fun as heck to sign the Chacin’s and Miley’s of the world and win anyways.

[Pugger]

Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe wrote an article addressing the Brewers low win projection...

 

Let’s Talk About the Brewers’ Mediocre Projection

 

The real knee slapper here is how the author has nothing good to say about the prospects of Jesus Aguilar! He was certain Jesus would done and off the roster.

They didn't care for Villar and he is no longer around. Right now Shaw is doing better than we expected after we got Moose but they didn't think Shaw would be all that hot this year either at 3rd.

They liked us getting Yelich and Cain but they didn't think these 2 would be as good as they are. I saw a lot of Yelich when he was in Miami (we get all of those games down here) and I was thrilled when we traded for him.

The rotation still has issues but Davies might be back to form. Chacin and Wiley turned out better than we could have dreamed.

 

But what I found curious is they didn't say a WORD about one of our biggest strengths - our bullpen. They mentioned it in passing in their little graph but that's about it.