Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

[Thurston Fluff]

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

 

I have been arguing for years not to take WAR seriously. Yet it is the single most used stat in baseball these days.

[JosephC]

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

 

Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

 

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.

 

If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's.

 

Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization.

 

Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.

[clancyphile]

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

 

Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

 

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.

 

If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's.

 

Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization.

 

Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.

 

That's what bugged me, too. I don't think RF or LF were "broken" between Santana, Braun, and a Phillips/Perez platoon as 4th OF.

 

Keeping both lines open - trading for Yelich and signing Cain - was prudent. But if the Yelich trade went through, why add Cain as well? Or if you got a deal with Cain, tell the Marlins, "Thanks, but no thanks" for the interest.

 

As to your point if the Cubs had this rotation...

 

I think that we as Brewers fans, DO oversell "our" guys a bit. We think of Jake Arietta as aging and on the downswing. We see them as not very deep and falling apart. Our guys are really good. Heck, we'd take Hernan Perez over anyone on the Scrubs roster.

 

Even in our "internal debates" on this forum, that dynamic plays out... we each have players we love, and players we'd just as soon seen dealt. Sometimes there is a general consensus (like DFAing Susac). Other times... not so much. Even with the players we like and think can contribute, we have disagreements on how to use them. I think Brent Suter can be a solid starter, and have for a while. Others think he's better off in the pen. I think Braun could contribute at third, the rest of the board says "Hell no."

 

So, yeah, maybe we do. Still, I'm confident in the young pitching the Crew has. Woodruff and Davies are going to improve, Suter's looking solid (I think if he does stretch out, he'll be good - plus, he was a Cub-killer in 2017). Anderson has managed to take a step up. Nelson was good before he got hurt. Chacin's certainly a solid addition. Burnes, Derby, Ventura, and Ortiz all look promising.

[sveumrules]

I have been arguing for years not to take WAR seriously. Yet it is the single most used stat in baseball these days.

 

It's always ideal to use as much relevant information as possible to arrive at any given conclusion. It's also key to realize how the limitations of the information used can impact the conclusions drawn & their reliability. As long as you keep that in mind, WAR is actually good for quite a bit more than absolutely nothing, though clearly still far from infallible.

 

WAR is certainly flawed but if we're using a single stat for some reason it's certainly more telling than previous placeholders like batting average or RBI or pitcher wins or ERA.

[monty57]

I don't think any projections coming out before rosters are set should be taken too seriously.

 

But regardless of what projections say, we wouldn't have signed Cain if we weren't going to address pitching. We'd have just let Phillips get the starting role. Rotation-wise, we wobbled through September last year because we had an expanded roster so we could do things like start Jeffress and do a bunch of games where we knew we would use loads of pitching. That won't work for a full season of baseball.

 

So, let's see what the next move is, and once we have another "proven" starting pitcher on the roster we'll likely be expected to win more games.

[Eye Black]

Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.

[3and2Fastball]

83 wins sounds about right for this team if they don't improve the starting pitching... With the group they have right now, the bullpen will be worn out by early June

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

83 wins sounds about right for this team if they don't improve the starting pitching... With the group they have right now, the bullpen will be worn out by early June

 

I get that we need to get at least one starter to make the team playoff-formidable, but is the starting pitching really that far off of what they had last year? Yes, Nelson is going to miss a chunk of the season, but doesn't Chacin theoretically replace some of his production? Also, a combo if Woodruff/Suter/Gallardo really can't be worse than the numbers Peralta and Garza put up last year. I mean, I get that we may see regression from Anderson and Davies, but expecting them to be demonstrably worse in 2018 than they were in 2017 is a pretty pessimistic way of looking at things.

 

I still expect them to somehow grab a good starter before opening day, either by trade of FA signing, but the cupboard definitely isn't bare.

[JohnBriggs12]

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

 

Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

 

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.

 

If that was the Cubs rotation, we'd all be sitting here saying Anderson's last 1 1/2 year run was a fluke and, even if it wasn't, that the guy has never even gotten to 153 major league innings in a single season. That comment would be followed with the idea that the rest of the starters are #4's and #5's.

 

Still puzzled that the Brewers would make huge investments in outfielders, when the only real outfield problem was OBP out of centerfield and it was likely the richest talent area in the entire organization.

 

Pitching was better than the hitting last year and certainly got the job done, but I don't blame outsiders one bit for throwing a little doubt in the direction of the pitching staff.

 

OBP wasn't the problem as much as the propensity for strikeouts up and down the lineup, but especially in CF and to a lesser extent RF. They added two guys who put the bat on the ball a lot and get on base too. They happened to be both be outstanding defensive outfielders too. Between Broxton and Santana, that's 353 strikeouts many coming with men in scoring position. Defense in RF last year was very sub par and it will be as long as Santana is on the team, but at least now they can take replace him late in games with Phillips, another outstanding defender.

[KeithStone53151]

Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.

 

Those numbers look far more reasonable than the crap fangraphs is using. Pitching is still a big issue, and I'm sure there are specific player projections I'll nitpick when I read the whole article, but overall result is reasonable. You can also argue that unless the Cubs add another starter, they got slightly worse(losing arrieta/davis) while 3 teams in the division are likely to improve. Sure they added some solid pieces to replace those guys, but nobody up to the caliber of Arrieta or Davis. Davis > Morrow. Chatwood will probably be a reasonable replacement for Lackey.

[Boomer5]

They have a number of guys who logic would suggest will be regression candidates and they haven't yet addressed the pitching. They can't play 5 OFers so their overal hitting talent doesn't count because you can't field a real team with the way the roster sits right now.

 

The off-season isn't over and they will have one TOR addition if not two by the time they report.

[KeithStone53151]

They have a number of guys who logic would suggest will be regression candidates and they haven't yet addressed the pitching. They can't play 5 OFers so their overal hitting talent doesn't count because you can't field a real team with the way the roster sits right now.

 

The off-season isn't over and they will have one TOR addition if not two by the time they report.

 

They worked that into the projection. Santana specifically is projected for something like 300 AB, Thames is also projected for limited PT. I have issues with many of their projections, so it surprises me that they came to such reasonable win totals.

[bill hAll Star]

Here’s free money for those that are certain of how bad projection systems are.

 

Brewers at 81.5 wins, only 12 games behind the Cubs (which I realize could be a bit inflated due to public team nature).

 

[bill hAll Star]

Another point of reference for the projected standings based on current rosters is Baseball Prospectus’ Projected Standings based on PECOTA data. Brewers are listed as an 83 win team, Cardinals at 84 wins, and Cubs at 89 wins. Obviously still plenty of roster moves likely for teams between now and opening day.

 

Those numbers look far more reasonable than the crap fangraphs is using. Pitching is still a big issue, and I'm sure there are specific player projections I'll nitpick when I read the whole article, but overall result is reasonable. You can also argue that unless the Cubs add another starter, they got slightly worse(losing arrieta/davis) while 3 teams in the division are likely to improve. Sure they added some solid pieces to replace those guys, but nobody up to the caliber of Arrieta or Davis. Davis > Morrow. Chatwood will probably be a reasonable replacement for Lackey.

 

They’ll also have Quintana for the full season, Lester’s peripherals suggest he’s not as bad as last season, and Chatwood replacing Lackey is a very low bar.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Brewers at 81.5 wins, only 12 games behind the Cubs (which I realize could be a bit inflated due to public team nature).

 

81.5 seems like a solid over/under win total for the Brewers as currently constructed, which should readily climb after the rotation gets improved with 1-2 more arms before opening day.

 

This Cubs' projection still feels high to me based on their team as currently constructed - if everything breaks right for them, sure, they're a 90-95 win ballclub. However, they have very little depth and nothing ready to contribute in the minors via callup or trade, and are already getting long in the tooth at a few positions/rotation spots. Quintana for a full season - he's projected to go 10-10 with an ERA just shy of 4...to me that's not a drastic improvement to what they got from Arrieta last year. I still think they are going to regret letting Jimenez go to acquire Quintana - if he avoids injuries he's going to be a perennial all star. This is probably also the year where it becomes obvious just how much a loss Gleyber Torres is to the Cub organization - it won them the world series by bringing Chapman into their bullpen for 1/2 a season, but imagine how much rosier things would look for the Cubs currently if they had the current #4 and #6-ranked prospects sitting in AAA or potentially available to headline a trade for an impact starter. Obvious qualifier, I fully expect the Cubs to go out and sign another starter to improve their rotation.

[Eye Black]

The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

 

Here are the full NL Central projections...

 

[pre]NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs Against

CHC 95 67 804 673

MIL 87 75 812 749

STL 86 76 754 711

PIT 75 87 691 752

CIN 73 89 729 815[/pre]

[Fear The Chorizo]

The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

 

Here are the full NL Central projections...

 

[pre]NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs Against

CHC 95 67 804 673

MIL 87 75 812 749

STL 86 76 754 711

PIT 75 87 691 752

CIN 73 89 729 815[/pre]

 

812 runs is a huge jump from their production last season - basically their projection indicates they're going to slug their way to alot of wins as currently constructed. Cubs at 95 now with Darvish on their roster is realistic. Brewers adding another solid rotation piece would likely bump their projection in this system up closer to 90.

[Boomer5]

The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

 

Here are the full NL Central projections...

 

[pre]NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs Against

CHC 95 67 804 673

MIL 87 75 812 749

STL 86 76 754 711

PIT 75 87 691 752

CIN 73 89 729 815[/pre]

 

812 runs is a huge jump from their production last season - basically their projection indicates they're going to slug their way to alot of wins as currently constructed. Cubs at 95 now with Darvish on their roster is realistic. Brewers adding another solid rotation piece would likely bump their projection in this system up closer to 90.

 

Slugging out of it is right! He has Santana as our full time RF with Braun as our 4th OF/1B.

 

Wow look at that pitching! If Stearns sees anything like this with his projections no wonder Boras is licking his chops. What a mess.

[wallus]

The Clay Davenport Projections updated on Tuesday, and have the Brewers projected as an 87-win Wild Card participant.

 

Here are the full NL Central projections...

 

[pre]NL Cent Won Lost Runs Runs Against

CHC 95 67 804 673

MIL 87 75 812 749

STL 86 76 754 711

PIT 75 87 691 752

CIN 73 89 729 815[/pre]

 

I think these are a little optimistic for us but there are enough that are pessimistic. I would think Cobb would add a win or two more. Upgrade 2B and it could make things interesting.

[KeithStone53151]

https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props

 

Over/Under on Brewers wins currently is 84.5. Cardinals at 85.5 and Cubs at 94.5. Those projections make more sense than most of what we are seeing.

[bill hAll Star]

The Brewers' line got bet up from 81.5 pretty quickly, which I can buy.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers' line got bet up from 81.5 pretty quickly, which I can buy.

 

I'm guessing many of those betters anticipate us adding a SP. I wish I had a line on betting something like that and could have gotten in on that 81.5 win mark.

[bill hAll Star]

The Brewers' line got bet up from 81.5 pretty quickly, which I can buy.

 

I'm guessing many of those betters anticipate us adding a SP. I wish I had a line on betting something like that and could have gotten in on that 81.5 win mark.

 

The initial line I saw was also from covers. It's possible that Bovada opened closer to 84.5.

[LouisEly]

https://sports.bovada.lv/baseball/mlb-season-props

 

Over/Under on Brewers wins currently is 84.5. Cardinals at 85.5 and Cubs at 94.5. Those projections make more sense than most of what we are seeing.

When it comes to pro sports, Vegas is usually pretty darned close. Given the Pirates "rebuild" and the Cardinals losing Lynn (likely), Oh, Rosenthal, Piscotty, and Grichuk and picking up only Ozuna, I'd be inclined to take the over.

[Eye Black]

Fangraphs’ Jay Jaffe wrote an article addressing the Brewers low win projection...

 

Let’s Talk About the Brewers’ Mediocre Projection