Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

[Fear The Chorizo]

Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff.

 

Does the same go for Anderson, Davies, and Chacin? Fangraph thinks so, and those 3 are getting WAY more IP than Gallardo and Guerra will be in the rotation...

[bork]

Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80.

 

That's assuming either of them pitches an inning for the Brewers.

[TJseven7]

Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff.

 

Meanwhile there are pretty big question marks about Barnes, Jeffress, and to a lesser degree Albers.

 

Would I be shocked if Knebel turned out to be a "one year wonder"? Not entirely shocked, no...

 

As is gallardo and Guerra should be throwing no more than 130 ip combined. Barnes jeffress sure. But barnes is the 6th arm now. Not set up. Jeffress just needs to be the guy he was in mke last year and he's fine.

 

1 corbin odorizzi type add and you can absolutely ignore gallardo guerra as concerns.

 

Even as is I dont see anything close to 380 inning over 4.8. Helps protect regressions.

[MadThinker88]

I recall on 1 of the podcasts the projections are still based on the STEAMER process which is much more conservative. The ZIPS projections will be folded in during spring training IIRC.

 

While searching for other items I noticed the Sporting News website had an article (in free content) comparing the Cubs/ Cardinals/ Brewers position by position

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-trade-rumors-2018-christian-yelich-lorenzo-cain-brewers-milwaukee-chicago-cubs-stlouis-cardinals/1tda598wxj94e12n9cg76y4665

[Eye Black]

I also mentioned this in another thread, but MadThinker is correct. The Effectively Wild podcast from last Saturday confirmed that currently the Brewers Fangraphs projection is based solely on Steamer, and that nothing from ZiPS has been factored in thus far. The two projection systems are weighted 50/50, but ZiPS doesn’t get added until late in the off-season. They said ZiPS is higher on the Brewers than Steamer and the Brewers projection will improve when the ZiPS data is eventually applied.

 

So it would be best to wait and see the final projections before getting too overly excited.

[LouisEly]

Usually what happens when you win 86 games, cut loose dead weight and add a few stars, is you regress to 77 wins. I've trashed how terrible projections are enough that I won't do it again here, but 77 wins is unlikely to say the least.

RE: projections. All projections are based on models. There is an old saying in market research: "All models are wrong but some are useful."

[clancyphile]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

 

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

 

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

 

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

 

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

 

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

 

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

 

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

 

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

 

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

 

Suter's ERA in 2017 was 3.42.

 

[sarcasm]Yeah, he'll be over 1.5 runs worse in that stat.[/sarcasm]

[MrTPlush]

Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.

[SRB]

STEAMER is very pessimistic about most pitchers (except for the ones it randomly likes), and looking at this rotation projections of course we would be a sub-80 win team. As some comparators, STEAMER projected ERAs for some top free agents:

 

Darvish, 3.82

Arrieta, 4.20

Cobb, 4.41

Lynn, 4.67

 

It's a very hitter-friendly system.

 

I don't fully understand why a reputable site like FanGraphs posts team-based win projections. Using an engine to project anything other than individual player rate stats seems worthless to me.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.

 

If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.

[JohnBriggs12]

STEAMER is very pessimistic about most pitchers (except for the ones it randomly likes), and looking at this rotation projections of course we would be a sub-80 win team. As some comparators, STEAMER projected ERAs for some top free agents:

 

Darvish, 3.82

Arrieta, 4.20

Cobb, 4.41

Lynn, 4.67

 

It's a very hitter-friendly system.

 

I don't fully understand why a reputable site like FanGraphs posts team-based win projections. Using an engine to project anything other than individual player rate stats seems worthless to me.

 

FanGraphs was underprojecting the Brewers win total all last season even as they were winning 86 games. They were projecting them to finish behind the Cardinals until about the last 10 days of the season.

[RockCoCougars]

Fake news.

[MrTPlush]

Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.

 

If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.

 

Exactly. This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done. It assumes Suter will start in the rotation and even finish the entire year there(which is not happening even if he starts there). Can't really take it seriously.

[KeithStone53151]

Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.

 

If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.

 

Exactly. This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done. It assumes Suter will start in the rotation and even finish the entire year there(which is not happening even if he starts there). Can't really take it seriously.

 

When I initially looked at it I thought the projection was wild, but also...how are 140 innings of 4.8 ERA worth 1.2 WAR? On a decent team, I don't really want a guy pitching to a 4.8 ERA on the roster...much less throwing 140 innings before we pull the plug. That isn't an above replacement level caliber player in my opinion.

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is projecting our win total before the offseason is done.

 

To be fair, it's projecting everyone's win total before the offseason is done, and they acknowledge issues with current projections even beyond their typical flaws/weaknesses due to data gaps and roster questions. It'll be interesting to see where they have the Brewers as opening day approaches, when their roster and everyday lineup has more clarity - and I'll likely take whatever that projection is and automatically add ~5 wins to it, since I feel the fangraphs' projection model tends to bias low towards teams built like the Brewers.

 

However, I think regardless of what baseball statisticians say, all team preseason projections are loosely based on perceptions of how good a team is supposed to be, and then individual player projection data gets skewed to better fit those perceptions. Teams heavy on young talent, with players that have a limited MLB history, or with a lot of aging veterans teetering on the regression cliff are more difficult to project, both from a "fangraphs" and a "crotchety old scout" methodology - that's why no matter how you look at and utilize data in baseball, a human element that's more than capable of being biased drives everything.

[stoutdude04]

Quintana and Hendricks are quite a bit better than any of our pitchers, so yes.

 

If Hendricks is still throwing 86 mph this season, he's going to get shelled to the point they might consider putting safety netting in front of the bleachers.

 

I am pretty sure he was doing that last year and did just fine. Some people think the Cubs have small margin for error, but I personally think they win the division going away.

[MrTPlush]

Just so everyone knows Fangraphs projects 300 PAs for a DH on our team. We have, what I counted, 20 games against AL teams. Our DH is going to be averaging 15 PAs a game.

 

Seems legit

[pacopete4]

Maybe it was a mistype and they meant 87 wins.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just so everyone knows Fangraphs projects 300 PAs for a DH on our team. We have, what I counted, 20 games against AL teams. Our DH is going to be averaging 15 PAs a game.

 

Seems legit

 

and only 10 of those games are played on the road at an AL stadium where there's actually a DH - so I guess 30 PAs a game?

 

perhaps the "DH" also counts for pinch hit opportunities, but one would think many of the pinch hit ABs in NL games would just be grouped wherever that hitter plays the field the next 1/2 inning -

[clancyphile]

Well aren’t they assuming Suter has a starting rotation spot? I bet if he started 30 games and gave him a normal starter leash he would get pretty close to that.

 

If Suter is starting 30 games, I'd imagine they would be close to 77 wins, too. Because it means a lot went wrong.

 

Not necessarily.

 

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

 

I think it is safe to say the Brewers will keep whichever of Suter and Woodruff is performing better in their starts in the starting rotation. If it is Suter, Woodruff gets optioned to AAA. If it is Woodruff, Suter will likely move to the pen.

 

So, if Suter is getting 30 starts as a #5, given that he's posted a 3.42 ERA last year and a FIP of 3.75... that's pretty darn good.

 

A lot of things going wrong would have Gallardo and Guerra getting a fair bit of starts this season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

 

Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

 

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.

[MrTPlush]

Clancy I know you like Suter and all, but the Brewers did not make big time additions to have Suter have any type of rotation spot. He did well because teams weren’t used to him and the Brewers babied him in his starts. Outside of 3 or so occasions(none in his last 8 or so starts) did the Brewers let him finish 6 innings. We aren’t putting a guy in the rotation who throws 5 or less innings...ever.

 

He is not a guy you are giving 30 starts to...he shouldn’t even have 15 starts. He is a swing guy to help in injury situations for short periods of time. Nothing wrong with that...valuable role.

[MrTPlush]

Clancy I know you like Suter and all, but the Brewers did not make big time additions to have Suter have any type of rotation spot. He did well because teams weren’t used to him and the Brewers babied him in his starts. Outside of 3 or so occasions(none in his last 8 or so starts) did the Brewers let him finish 6 innings. We aren’t putting a guy in the rotation who throws 5 or less innings...ever.

 

He is not a guy you are giving 30 starts to...he shouldn’t even have 15 starts. He is a swing guy to help in injury situations for short periods of time. Nothing wrong with that...valuable role.

[clancyphile]

Right now, the rotation looks like Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Woodruff, and Suter - with Nelson coming back relatively soon (no later than June 1) to presumably replace one of Woodruff or Suter.

 

Let's be honest ... with last week's moves, there is no way they go into the season with this rotation. Attanasio even said as much, saying they have the payroll flexibility to add a starter.

 

I like Suter as a pitcher, and I think he's got a roll on the team. I think it's likely as a long man/injury replacement swing guy, though, or as rotation insurance at Colorado Springs.

 

We are still waiting to see how that starter comes (if the starter comes). Until then, I think it's prudent to assume nothing happens.

 

Is it a free agent? That creates one situation.

 

Is it a trade? If so, does that trade involve Davies, Woodruff, or both?

[young guns]

Just so everyone knows Fangraphs projects 300 PAs for a DH on our team. We have, what I counted, 20 games against AL teams. Our DH is going to be averaging 15 PAs a game.

 

Seems legit

Did you factor in the world series opportunities?(totally not putting this in blue even though I should)