Fangraphs has Brewers at 77 wins (BP Projected Standings at post #56)

[soloist57]

Really?

[TURBO]

Is this after our Cain and Yelich acquisitions?

 

Must be because our rotation isn't much better than average as it sits, but 77 wins? Riiiiight...

[KeithStone53151]

Usually what happens when you win 86 games, cut loose dead weight and add a few stars, is you regress to 77 wins. I've trashed how terrible projections are enough that I won't do it again here, but 77 wins is unlikely to say the least.

[MillerParkSouth]

Most of the folks at fangraphs acknowledge that their projections are conservative. There was an article that came out yesterday about how the Brewers are banking on breakout pitchers, without long track records of success, and how models generally don't like that approach because they rely on larger sets of data.

[Lathund]

Most Brewers players have a very limited track record in the majors, and several had career years in 2017. While humans, with context, can say that at least some of those breakout performances are in fact sustainable, a stats-only projection cannot. So such a projection system will not rate those players very highly, and create some rather absurd results. Chase Anderson isn't all of a sudden an ace, but it's unlikely that he'll post an ERA/FIP significantly worse than his career numbers. Likewise with Zach Davies.

 

As mentioned before, even Fangraphs themselves say the model is likely too harsh on the Brewers, and that ZiPS (Which will be added to the projections soon, once all teams are done) will be more favourable. There's definitely a time and place for data-based projections, as they can do certain things better than our subjective opinions. But there are also areas where they come up short, which I hope this will be an example of.

[MrTPlush]

There was an article that came out yesterday about how the Brewers are banking on breakout pitchers, without long track records of success, and how models generally don't like that approach because they rely on larger sets of data.

 

THIS^

 

Every time these projections come out people get a little up in arms...whether for the team in general or for a specific player. They depend on data and data only. If you have young unproven players and/or players with little track record your projection will be trash(most likely).

 

77 wins would not suprise me at all though. We have lots of regression candidates, especially pitchers. We have already lost Nelson for a half season and he may not be that good upon returning. If Anderson also regresses there goes our #2 pitcher production we were getting. I definitely think we finish above .500, but you never know and a projection system will not be very bullish on this team.

[pacopete4]

[sarcasm]I'll take the under.[/sarcasm] The devil(fangraphs) at it again.

[homer]

I think that same article said they'd be revising that model up a few notches.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is just a forecast, none are perfect. Although this is what I use, and it has proven to be extremely accurate. Still crunching the numbers for the 2018 season.

 

http://ishootthepictures.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/vlcsnap-2011-11-03-17h47m32s60.jpg

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

 

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

 

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

 

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

 

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

 

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

 

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

 

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

 

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

 

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

[kestrel79]

I'm just waiting for the annual SI Baseball preview where we are picked dead last every year.

[RobDeer 45]

I believe prediction models would be hard pressed to have a win total much higher than that because of our starting pitching.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If it's starting pitching we are focused on, is the cubs rotation this minute actually that much better?

 

Also, do the fangraphs projections actually add up to the total amount of wins and losses across all of mlb and based on individual teams schedules? Seems like they always tend to biased towards low win totals...

[MillerParkSouth]

Quintana and Hendricks are quite a bit better than any of our pitchers, so yes.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Meh, depends what you mean by quite a bit...they also have no rotation depth and don't have someone like Nelson who could give their rotation a boost midseason without having to make a trade.

[KeithStone53151]

Meh, depends what you mean by quite a bit...they also have no rotation depth and don't have someone like Nelson who could give their rotation a boost midseason without having to make a trade.

 

The Cubs have some serious 2017 Giants potential. Very little room for injury/performance issues.

[KeithStone53151]

Quintana and Hendricks are quite a bit better than any of our pitchers, so yes.

 

If Hendricks is still throwing 86 mph this season, he's going to get shelled to the point they might consider putting safety netting in front of the bleachers.

[3and2Fastball]

It really comes down to pitching. 77 wins is a low estimate especially with the improved offense and defense with the additions of Cain & Yelich. But we are beginning the season without Jimmy Nelson, and our starting rotation as it stands today might include Gallardo.

 

We really need to add a TOR pitcher. Otherwise we look a lot like the 2012 Brewers: lots of hitting, not much pitching, and 83 wins

[TJseven7]

Our analytics >>>> their analytics

 

Hated the squad last year. Hated the rotation, hated santana thames. Still do. Our defense is already a lot better and all of our pitchers will get worse. It's kinda funny. They have articles pointing to chacin and gallardo being arms who can break the metrics, then value them poorly.

 

Sure last year Anderson was amazing (and suter picked up where he left off for a bit). Sure nelson did something no one expected. Davies defied logic again. Knebel was a monster. To assume every upswing is a fluke comes off as a bitter rival fans take. (I know they don't have bias)

 

They've had articles from years ago that stated certain numbers pointed to santana having a chance to explode up to star level but then the wins projection doesn't acknowledge that.

 

I'm not saying its bs on their part. They even believe their numbers are low on mke. However, on paper stearns is building the team he wants to build, and on the same paper FG is seeing numbers that don't make sense to them. I'm just going to guess our analytics group is ahead of them by a bit.

[trwi7]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

 

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

 

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

 

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

 

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

 

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

 

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

 

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

 

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

 

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

 

You can do this with literally every team.

 

Ian Happ hit .253/.328/.514 last year as a 22/23 year old and they have him at .249/.320/.462.

 

Willson Conteras hit .276/.356/.499 last year for over 3 WAR and they have him at .271/.346/.465 with 2.8 WAR in 2018.

 

Javier Baez has had 2.7 and 2.2 WAR the past two seasons and they have him at 1.9 WAR in 2018.

 

They don't have 23 year old Albert Almora Jr. improving at all.

[KeithStone53151]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/poll-how-good-are-the-brewers.html

 

A poll of average joe's says we'll make the playoffs, over 50% of people who participated think we'll win 88 games or more...

 

In addition to the breakout candidates being ranked conservatively(which I agree with) they tend to struggle with young players...and we have a lot of them. I've also found pitching projections to be a complete joke and 100% useless.

 

Arcia for instance, 277/324/407 line last year and projected 261/313/407. So a top prospect turning 23 in his 3rd big league season is going to get worse? It's far more likely that he improves on that line.

 

Domingo Santana turns 25 this season and was a career 282/374/485 hitter in the minors but from 2014-2015 in the minors was more 310/420/525. He posts 278/371/505 this year but is more likely to regress to 258/353/472 than maintain or improve? And his BABIP is going to be .327...the lowest mark by over 30 points in the last 4 years? For him, I honestly think they drew numbers out of a hat as these aren't remotely logical.

 

Ryan Braun a 1.1 win player, LOL, enough said.

 

Knebel is likely to regress a bit from his absurd season, but 3.19 ERA seems a bit excessive.

 

Hader with his 3.71 is only going to be slightly better than Tyler Webb and his 3.87, LOL!!!

 

These pitching projections almost seem like they actively try to project everyone as close to a 4 ERA as possible.

 

How can you even take WAR seriously when Suter projects to pitch 143 innings of 4.8 ERA and has the 5th highest WAR for pitchers on the team with 1.2? Numbers...out...of...a...hat = projections

 

You can do this with literally every team.

 

Ian Happ hit .253/.328/.514 last year as a 22/23 year old and they have him at .249/.320/.462.

 

Willson Conteras hit .276/.356/.499 last year for over 3 WAR and they have him at .271/.346/.465 with 2.8 WAR in 2018.

 

Javier Baez has had 2.7 and 2.2 WAR the past two seasons and they have him at 1.9 WAR in 2018.

 

They don't have 23 year old Albert Almora Jr. improving at all.

 

I don't see Happ with 514 slugging again but overall he probably remains about that OPS. Baez at 1.9 WAR is probably stupid, Contreras should probably project to improve a touch versus regress, I don't think Almora is all that good of a player so I'll ignore that one. But that's kind of my point, and this isn't unique to the Brewers, projections are garbage across the board on young players...to the point that they might has well have drawn numbers from a hat. You almost have to take every one of them and make significant adjustments to get to anything remotely realistic.

[TJseven7]

As for pitching...

 

We logged 380.1 ip last year by guys who had an era above 4.8. Do we have 1 on our current roster? 1 guy who you expect to be higher than 4.8 era?

 

That's 42 games worth of innings.

 

Even as is... anderson davies chacin woodruff... gallardo guerra wilkerson

Knebel hader albers logan barnes jeffress suter... with williams ramirez kicking it in AAA.

 

We can regress in areas as long as the bottom isnt dreadful to the same level.

 

Not to mention I did a rumidial charting of k per game bb per game and the magic number for this team was 10k or less, 3 or more bb. In those game regardless of all variables we were 10 games over 500 and this was after the post all star break implosion where we were 2 games over 500 I believe. We improved the defense, cut ks, added bbs.

 

This teams lacking some elite arm talent, no doubt about it. Howver this teams getting much more solid across the board which makes it harder and harder to beat. It almost feels attrition based. Not going to dominate often, but will make teams beat you game after game. With metrics and stability in our favor.

[Fear The Chorizo]

In looking closer at how the projections are broken down for the Brewers, I think they are struggling with what certain players' and pitchers' roles will actually be for 2018...also, they still have the Pirates ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central standings.

 

Pitching:

If healthy, Hader will pitch a ton more than the projected 55 IP

Guys like Webb and Drake are extremely unlikely to pitch 40IP each in 2018

Brent Suter will not pitch around 150IP for this roster, no matter how many supposed rotation holes they currently have

Their entire starting rotation is apparently a 5.0 ERA staff, even though most of the projected starting 5 have career ERAs under 4, with the exception being Woodruff's partial 2017.

 

Position Players - just to name a couple:

- Cain's production will apparently take a 50% WAR reduction by playing 1/2 his games in a much more hitter and fielder-friendly ballpark.

- Ryan Braun is apparently the current roster's pinch hitter/4th OF option based on the projected # of plate appearances

- for the DH position, Fangraphs factors in 300 plate appearances for the Brewers - that's conservatively 60 games' worth of ABs for a DH. Problem with that projection is that the Brewers play nowhere near 60 road interleague games in AL parks.

 

I'm sure Fangraphs tries to factor in actual opponents on the 2018 schedule and where these games are played with these projections, but enough stinks about it just by looking at 1 teams issues for me to put pretty much no weight in what they say two months before opening day, particularly when rosters are in flux throughout MLB right now.

[3and2Fastball]

Yes I would fully expect Gallardo and Guerra to have ERA's over 4.80, and the jury is still out on Woodruff.

 

Meanwhile there are pretty big question marks about Barnes, Jeffress, and to a lesser degree Albers.

 

Would I be shocked if Knebel turned out to be a "one year wonder"? Not entirely shocked, no...

[homer]

I don't think anyone saw Villar regressing like he did. It happens sometimes.