Kelvin Herrera

[ewitkows]

KC is looking to get rid of money to resign Homser. Kelvin had a subpar 2017 but was awesome for 4 years before that.

He's 28 and a FA after this year so I'm sure he's motivated to have a great year considering what relievers are getting paid.

 

He's owed 7.8 mil so if we covered the cost of the contract we shouldn't have to give up a top 10 prospect.

We'd have a lock down 7-8-9 relievers and would help solidify us as a playoff team.

[StearnsFTW]

KC is looking to get rid of money to resign Homser. Kelvin had a subpar 2017 but was awesome for 4 years before that.

He's 28 and a FA after this year so I'm sure he's motivated to have a great year considering what relievers are getting paid.

 

He's owed 7.8 mil so if we covered the cost of the contract we shouldn't have to give up a top 10 prospect.

We'd have a lock down 7-8-9 relievers and would help solidify us as a playoff team.

 

I agree with the sentiment, but I think the bolded is pretty optimistic. He will be sought after if put on the market.

[ewitkows]

He is a one year rental and not exactly cheap. I would think it would be someone in the 10-15 range.

[KeithStone53151]

KC is looking to get rid of money to resign Homser. Kelvin had a subpar 2017 but was awesome for 4 years before that.

He's 28 and a FA after this year so I'm sure he's motivated to have a great year considering what relievers are getting paid.

 

He's owed 7.8 mil so if we covered the cost of the contract we shouldn't have to give up a top 10 prospect.

We'd have a lock down 7-8-9 relievers and would help solidify us as a playoff team.

 

I agree with the sentiment, but I think the bolded is pretty optimistic. He will be sought after if put on the market.

 

Keep in mind our top 10 prospects are better than most top 10s, our system runs deeper than most. Grisham or Supak and a throw in isn't a terrible deal for one year of Herrera off a down year. That said, I think we are done adding relievers until the deadline. We have a number of locked in relievers already, and some young talented guys competing with a few vets for the one or two remaining spots. We don't need to be 100% solid/established at all spots, it's good to have a guy or two with options so we can rotate a fresh arm in if needed.

[JosephC]

I agree with ewitkows and don't see Herrera commanding a big return. His salary gives him minimal (if any) surplus value, he only has one more year of team control and he had a 4.30 FIP last season. I think the best use of Herrera would be to use as a piece in a bigger trade in order to get it done (Duffy), but if the Royals aren't planning any big trades then it would make sense for them to flip Herrera for a minor return. If I'm in the Royals chair and the Brewers came calling, I would ask for Marcos Diplan and Josh Pennington but would probably settle for Josh Pennington and Zack Brown.

[brewcrewdue80]

If you believe Herrera is of only a 10-15prospect value from us, KC is not trading him any time soon. He's a perfect RP trade piece at the deadline who with his previous success will bring back a LOT more than White Sox got Schwarzak for Ryan Cordell.

 

With an under 3ERA at the deadline, I'd guess Freddy Peralta and Trent Grisham/Ray type of return and hoping KC doesn't just hang up

[ewitkows]

They need to cut payroll now , not at the deadline per mlbtraderumors. Yes I agree they could get alot more if he's a sub 2 ERA pitcher at the deadline. They do need a CF so maybe Broxton and a 10-15 prospect would be closer to what they would want.

[KeithStone53151]

If you believe Herrera is of only a 10-15prospect value from us, KC is not trading him any time soon. He's a perfect RP trade piece at the deadline who with his previous success will bring back a LOT more than White Sox got Schwarzak for Ryan Cordell.

 

With an under 3ERA at the deadline, I'd guess Freddy Peralta and Trent Grisham/Ray type of return and hoping KC doesn't just hang up

 

What's with the whole GM's hanging up on each other thing? I'm sure that's a good way to maintain working relationships with people, hang up on them all the time.

 

Anywho, they might be better served to hope he rebounds and maybe they get more. Hard to imagine us giving up Peralta for 2 months of him though. Cordell was like our 15th best prospect when we traded him, but in all fairness it wasn't that far from trading away Kyle Wren. He was like 25 years old and struggling in AAA, he looked pretty clearly like an AAAA guy. Just because one team traded away an absurd haul for 2 months of Chapman once upon a time doesn't mean 2 months of low end closers/high end setup guys are worth anywhere near that.

[JosephC]

If you believe Herrera is of only a 10-15prospect value from us, KC is not trading him any time soon. He's a perfect RP trade piece at the deadline who with his previous success will bring back a LOT more than White Sox got Schwarzak for Ryan Cordell.

 

With an under 3ERA at the deadline, I'd guess Freddy Peralta and Trent Grisham/Ray type of return and hoping KC doesn't just hang up

 

Depends on how he is pitching at the time. Swarzak had the hot hand when the Brewers picked him up (2.23 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 1.03 WHIP). Herrera had a 4.25 ERA, 4.30 WHIP, 1.35 WHIP last season.

 

If I'm the Royals I see three scenarios. I'm looking at 2018 as a lost season when considering the free agent losses, and obviously that plays heavily in how I approach Herrera. He is scheduled to make 7.94 million.

#1 - Keep him and assume he pitches well. If so I pay him 5.3 million dollars for four months of work and then am able to trade him for a "top 10 organizational prospect" (Ray, Grisham, Peralta). Personally I really doubt that the Royals could get more than that for 2 months of work even if the guy is pitching absolute lights out.

#2 - Trade him now and keep the 7.94 million dollars. Probably could get a role player prospect (Pennington) and fringe prospect (Brown) in return.

#3 - Keep him and he repeats last year's performance, either meaning I can't trade him or can still deal him but only get a fringe prospect in return. At best I spend 5.3 million dollars and pick up a Zack Brown type prospect, at worst I can't move him and end up paying him the full 7.94 million.

 

After thinking it over I'd still opt for #2.

[KeithStone53151]

If you believe Herrera is of only a 10-15prospect value from us, KC is not trading him any time soon. He's a perfect RP trade piece at the deadline who with his previous success will bring back a LOT more than White Sox got Schwarzak for Ryan Cordell.

 

With an under 3ERA at the deadline, I'd guess Freddy Peralta and Trent Grisham/Ray type of return and hoping KC doesn't just hang up

 

Depends on how he is pitching at the time. Swarzak had the hot hand when the Brewers picked him up (2.23 ERA, 2.35 FIP, 1.03 WHIP). Herrera had a 4.25 ERA, 4.30 WHIP, 1.35 WHIP last season.

 

If I'm the Royals I see three scenarios. I'm looking at 2018 as a lost season when considering the free agent losses, and obviously that plays heavily in how I approach Herrera. He is scheduled to make 7.94 million.

#1 - Keep him and assume he pitches well. If so I pay him 5.3 million dollars for four months of work and then am able to trade him for a "top 10 organizational prospect" (Ray, Grisham, Peralta). Personally I really doubt that the Royals could get more than that for 2 months of work even if the guy is pitching absolute lights out.

#2 - Trade him now and keep the 7.94 million dollars. Probably could get a role player prospect (Pennington) and fringe prospect (Brown) in return.

#3 - Keep him and he repeats last year's performance, either meaning I can't trade him or can still deal him but only get a fringe prospect in return. At best I spend 5.3 million dollars and pick up a Zack Brown type prospect, at worst I can't move him and end up paying him the full 7.94 million.

 

After thinking it over I'd still opt for #2.

 

Well thought out and agree across the board. I would pick option 2...especially from a saving money business perspective, but I can understand gambling a bit and trying to maximize the return if I'm them. I feel like Peralta is probably the best case at the deadline for Herrera unless he's posting like a sub-1 ERA with a Knebel-like k rate.

[jerichoholicninja]

Wasn't he injured most of last year? Or was that two years ago?

[SRB]

I'm not sure I want to take a chance on him at $8M, he took a big step back last season and there were some warning signs in his peripherals.

 

I'd rather take a flier on a guy like Bruce Rondon who could be had for practically nothing and could end up outperforming Herrera.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Brewer pen is set for the first half of the season. On paper, it's better than either the Cubs or the Cards. They could be in market for an additional reliever at the deadline though. Let's wait and see.

[pacopete4]

I think the Brewer pen is set for the first half of the season. On paper, it's better than either the Cubs or the Cards. They could be in market for an additional reliever at the deadline though. Let's wait and see.

 

I do agree with you that it looks good on paper but I'm not sure it's set. If they find bargain deals in the next month, I think Stearns will make the move. You can never have too many options out there.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think the Brewer pen is set for the first half of the season. On paper, it's better than either the Cubs or the Cards. They could be in market for an additional reliever at the deadline though. Let's wait and see.

 

I do agree with you that it looks good on paper but I'm not sure it's set. If they find bargain deals in the next month, I think Stearns will make the move. You can never have too many options out there.

 

Disagree. The pen has 6 virtual locks all on major league deals: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jeffress, Albers, and Logan, and the 7th spot is set for an arm that will go to ST competing for the 5th starter role. Jeffress ($1.75 mil), Logan ($1.85 mil), and Albers ($2.5 mil) have some money committed and not likely to miss making the roster. Knebel, Barnes and Hader are locks. They'll likely add a couple more veterans on minor league deals as ST insurance but I don't expect a "name" guy.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Disagree. The pen has 6 virtual locks all on major league deals: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jeffress, Albers, and Logan, and the 7th spot is set for an arm that will go to ST competing for the 5th starter role. Jeffress ($1.75 mil), Logan ($1.85 mil), and Albers ($2.5 mil) have some money committed and not likely to miss making the roster. Knebel, Barnes and Hader are locks. They'll likely add a couple more veterans on minor league deals as ST insurance but I don't expect a "name" guy.

 

Kind of a hot take, but I wonder if Knebel is being talked about in potential deals? You know Hader is off the table, so he would be the only other pen option that would have high trade value. And it isn't like the Brewers haven't sold high on a closer before. They could theoretically hand the closers role to Hader and sign Tony Watson, or sign someone like Greg Holland to an affordable deal.

[pacopete4]

Disagree. The pen has 6 virtual locks all on major league deals: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jeffress, Albers, and Logan, and the 7th spot is set for an arm that will go to ST competing for the 5th starter role. Jeffress ($1.75 mil), Logan ($1.85 mil), and Albers ($2.5 mil) have some money committed and not likely to miss making the roster. Knebel, Barnes and Hader are locks. They'll likely add a couple more veterans on minor league deals as ST insurance but I don't expect a "name" guy.

 

Kind of a hot take, but I wonder if Knebel is being talked about in potential deals? You know Hader is off the table, so he would be the only other pen option that would have high trade value. And it isn't like the Brewers haven't sold high on a closer before. They could theoretically hand the closers role to Hader and sign Tony Watson, or sign someone like Greg Holland to an affordable deal.

Yes, I tend to agree with this take too. Knebel could be a great candidate for being included in a trade. Not only him but I don't really think Jeffress or Logan are locks to this bullpen. Or heck, even Barnes (I think he has options?) You gotta believe that if there is a deal out there for a very good bullpen arm and the cost is very reasonable, that Stearns is going to make it. I think he learned a hard lesson last season with the bullpen he tried to start the season with.

[MrTPlush]

They better not trade Knebel. Everyone talks about how we don’t have the starting rotation to win a World Series. We you also need elite pen arms and especially if we don’t have elite starters. Knebel/Hader would quite possibly be the worst people to even think about trading. They are what should give us an amazing bullpen that’s going to win us a lot of games.

[Roderick]

Disagree. The pen has 6 virtual locks all on major league deals: Knebel, Hader, Barnes, Jeffress, Albers, and Logan, and the 7th spot is set for an arm that will go to ST competing for the 5th starter role. Jeffress ($1.75 mil), Logan ($1.85 mil), and Albers ($2.5 mil) have some money committed and not likely to miss making the roster. Knebel, Barnes and Hader are locks. They'll likely add a couple more veterans on minor league deals as ST insurance but I don't expect a "name" guy.

 

Kind of a hot take, but I wonder if Knebel is being talked about in potential deals? You know Hader is off the table, so he would be the only other pen option that would have high trade value. And it isn't like the Brewers haven't sold high on a closer before. They could theoretically hand the closers role to Hader and sign Tony Watson, or sign someone like Greg Holland to an affordable deal.

 

They're not going to sign Cain and trade for Yelich only to take a step backwards in the bullpen. With all of his years of contol, trading away Knebel, regardless of which free agent they sign to replace, is a step backwards.

[JosephC]

I really thought the Brewers would stay under 95 million for the season's payroll and they still may since they are only around 90 million right now. Obviously they could end up going well past that if they pay significant money for one of the free agent starters. But the question remains, the Brewers may have 25 million more to spend but how likely is it that they would sink 9+ million dollars into a reliever coming off a mediocre season? From that perspective, I don't think Herrera is really a good fit for the Brewers.

 

Herrera does look like a decent bounce-back candidate and I thought he was a solid Plan C type candidate a few weeks ago, but after making the investments in Cain and Yelich, I just don't know if the funds aspect make a investment in Herrera a smart move. Would throwing big money at a top starter make sense, yes it would if Attanasio is willing to have a 130 million dollar payroll in 2021. Would throwing a 2-year, 16 million dollar contract at Neal Walker make sense, yes it would because they still could use a higher OBP out of 2B. Would throwing nearly 9 million dollars at a reliever coming off an sub-par season make sense, I just don't know if that would be a wise investment for the Brewers since they are already at the 90 million mark?

[bill hAll Star]

I had mentioned it on other threads that brought up Herrera, but there were several stretches where Herrera reported lack of feeling in his forearm/fingers/hand and had to get pulled from a game after walking several batters. Are we willing to take the risk?

[JosephC]

If the Brewers were holding their prospects, willing to wait to see how the team did the first three months and then make a big splash at the deadline if the team was competitive, and was currently sitting at about the 75 million mark in payroll...under those circumstances I'd definitely have interest in Herrera EVEN WITH THE POSSIBLE INJURY CONCERNS if the cost would be as I expect (couple fringe prospects and then eat his entire salary). But with the way things have developed over the last week, at this point I don't think Herrera makes any sense for Milwaukee.