Brewers sign Matt Albers - 2 year deal

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Awesome move!

 

This completes our bullpen now...

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Logan

Barnes

Jeffress

Suter/Gallardo

 

This would seem to be locked in. So what happens if Guerra (as an example, not a prediction) looks unhittable in the spring?

 

80% of the time they have 8 relievers in the pen, but not to start the season.

 

There are also guys like Taylor Williams and Adrian Houser that factor into the bullpen mix at some point in 2018. For that matter, Bubby Derby Nick Ramirez and even Luis Ortiz and Freddy Peralta could end up pitching meaningful innings. Nice to have some depth there.

[wallus]

This move doesn't at all "complete" our bullpen if we are truly contending for a title, unless you believe

 

1) Albers can repeat a 1.65 ERA 0.85 WHIP season

2) You can depend on Barnes/Jeffress in high leverage situations

3) Knebel won't regress

 

To me, the bullpen remains our biggest question mark and biggest weakness.

 

If everything goes well, this bullpen could maybe get us through to the Trade Deadline, but we're gonna need a lot more help to shine in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I like the signing, but we are far from done....

 

Maybe in August/Sept someone like Burnes comes up from MiLB to help in the bullpen? I guess I could see that....maybe?

 

You aren't going to use your entire bullpen in the playoffs. You probably only need Knebel, Hader, Logan and maybe one other guy. (Chacin?)

[KeithStone53151]

Awesome move!

 

This completes our bullpen now...

 

Knebel

Hader

Albers

Logan

Barnes

Jeffress

Suter/Gallardo

 

This would seem to be locked in. So what happens if Guerra (as an example, not a prediction) looks unhittable in the spring?

 

80% of the time they have 8 relievers in the pen, but not to start the season.

 

There are also guys like Taylor Williams and Adrian Houser that factor into the bullpen mix at some point in 2018. For that matter, Bubby Derby Nick Ramirez and even Luis Ortiz and Freddy Peralta could end up pitching meaningful innings. Nice to have some depth there.

 

The only 4 guys 100% locked in are Knebel, Hader, Albers, Logan. Barnes and Jeffress are probably at least 95% locked in, but a poor spring(or an awesome one by williams or houser) could find them either optioned(barnes) or cut(jeffress). The 7th spot is probably for long relief(gallardo/guerra/suter), but keep in mind we may carry 8 relievers. Especially with guys like Perez and Sogard that are extremely flexible.

[superfly]

I'm fairly surprised there isn't anybody in here saying it cost too much (lol). What a fantastic signing for the $.

[SRB]

I think it's a pretty solid Opening Day bullpen actually. Knebel will likely regress a bit, but everything indicates guys like Jeffers and Barnes will regress toward the norm in the opposite direction (i.e. improve)

 

Guys who have earned saves within the last couple seasons: Knebel, Jeffress, Barnes, Logan, Albers

 

Some strong circumstantial evidence that they've all got (in the estimation of various managers) pretty good intangibles too. And the one guy without any saves (Hader) could end up being the best of them all.

[monty57]

I hope he can keep it up, but man have we quickly changed from the "continue to add young, controllable talent" stage to the "we want to win now so sign old guys until we max out payroll" stage.

 

I keep bouncing back-and-forth as to whether I like or dislike what we're doing. This deal is fairly small in the grand scheme of things, but I don't like relying on old guys to defy nature and continue to play at a top level when they're at an age where most players have retired.

 

Here's to defying the odds. Dilly dilly!

[MKEguy]

Great 2015, horrible 2016, great 2017.

 

How weird.

 

At 2 years/$5 million I'm okay with the risk. Not even Neftali Feliz money

 

This is actually a futures contract. He’ll get paid $1M for a couple horrible innings this year, but $4M for a lights out year in 2019. Stearns is thinking ahead.

[TJseven7]

Solid add, i think we discussed this guy last year. He bounced back and is an upgrade on hughes by a bit. The outlier season set asdide he's out performed Huges by a bit for awhile.

 

Knebel hader albers logan jeffress barnes is a solid group. Better than early season last year by a long shot. Still very cost savvy. Barnes is the biggest swing potential in the pen. Could be extremely good or like last year.

 

95 mil roughly. Still soft at 5 and 2b.

[bork]

I hope he can keep it up, but man have we quickly changed from the "continue to add young, controllable talent" stage to the "we want to win now so sign old guys until we max out payroll" stage.

 

They traded 4 young, controllable talents for 1 young, controllable talent. Otherwise, the young, controllable talent is still there, just that a few more of them will start in the minors.

[StearnsFTW]

This move doesn't at all "complete" our bullpen if we are truly contending for a title, unless you believe

 

1) Albers can repeat a 1.65 ERA 0.85 WHIP season

2) You can depend on Barnes/Jeffress in high leverage situations

3) Knebel won't regress

 

To me, the bullpen remains our biggest question mark and biggest weakness.

 

If everything goes well, this bullpen could maybe get us through to the Trade Deadline, but we're gonna need a lot more help to shine in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I like the signing, but we are far from done....

 

Maybe in August/Sept someone like Burnes comes up from MiLB to help in the bullpen? I guess I could see that....maybe?

 

Yep. The bullpen scares me as well. If Logan and Albers are good I think we're fine, but if not, I have no faith in Barnes or Jeffress to step up.

[jerichoholicninja]

I hope he can keep it up, but man have we quickly changed from the "continue to add young, controllable talent" stage to the "we want to win now so sign old guys until we max out payroll" stage.

 

They traded 4 young, controllable talents for 1 young, controllable talent. Otherwise, the young, controllable talent is still there, just that a few more of them will start in the minors.

 

Yes, and where is the budget getting maxed out? They've added like $10M in payroll for 2018 after taking Garza off the books.

[JohnBriggs12]

The opening day roster often comes down to who has options and who doesn't. The guys with options are more likely to start in AAA but will be first in line in case of injury.or ineffectveness.

[markedman5]

I hope he can keep it up, but man have we quickly changed from the "continue to add young, controllable talent" stage to the "we want to win now so sign old guys until we max out payroll" stage.

 

They traded 4 young, controllable talents for 1 young, controllable talent. Otherwise, the young, controllable talent is still there, just that a few more of them will start in the minors.

 

Yes, and where is the budget getting maxed out? They've added like $10M in payroll for 2018 after taking Garza off the books.

 

10M? Payroll was 63 million last season and its already at 90M for 2018 and we aren't done yet.

 

I'm ok with that but let's at least be accurate about where we are. MA says we still have room for a pitcher.....so,if he is willing to spend more then that is a good thing.

[homer]

Interesting Fangraphs analysis on the Albers signing and Brewer front office in general:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-and-the-breakout-pitching-staff/

 

(As an aside, I love how Jeff Sullivan always tries to use scouting/observation to explain the advanced metrics)

[SRB]

Interesting Fangraphs analysis on the Albers signing and Brewer front office in general:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-and-the-breakout-pitching-staff/

 

(As an aside, I love how Jeff Sullivan always tries to use scouting/observation to explain the advanced metrics)

 

Good article, although I think it (lightly) contributes to this running narrative that the Brewers have somehow gone "all-in" for 2018 simply because we are the only team who has done anything in 3+ months.

 

Stearns deserves more credit for making smart moves that will help us just as much 3-5 years from now (especially if the front office believes that Cain is not due for major age-based decline) when our entire starting rotation and bullpen might be different. The only "win now" moves have been modest two-year contracts for middle relievers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Great 2015, horrible 2016, great 2017.

 

How weird.

 

At 2 years/$5 million I'm okay with the risk. Not even Neftali Feliz money

2012 and 2013 were good as well. 2014 was lost to injury. Since 2012, he's put up a 2.89 ERA.

 

Good pickup by Stearns & Co.

[anglotiger]

This move doesn't at all "complete" our bullpen if we are truly contending for a title, unless you believe

 

1) Albers can repeat a 1.65 ERA 0.85 WHIP season

2) You can depend on Barnes/Jeffress in high leverage situations

3) Knebel won't regress

 

To me, the bullpen remains our biggest question mark and biggest weakness.

 

If everything goes well, this bullpen could maybe get us through to the Trade Deadline, but we're gonna need a lot more help to shine in the playoffs. Don't get me wrong, I like the signing, but we are far from done....

 

Maybe in August/Sept someone like Burnes comes up from MiLB to help in the bullpen? I guess I could see that....maybe?

 

Yep. The bullpen scares me as well. If Logan and Albers are good I think we're fine, but if not, I have no faith in Barnes or Jeffress to step up.

 

I'm not sure why anyone is concerned about Albers. He may not repeat those numbers but he doesn't have to. His past seven seasons (with the single exception of two years ago) indicate that he's a high-quality reliever. Of the concerns above, the only one which is even a remote concern (to me) is #2.

[brewmann04]

Great move and think our Bullpen is set up nice but we won't know anything until the games start. Will we have the starters to go the offense the defense and relievers all questions to be answered . But have to like what DS has done so far.

[JosephC]

He had a career year last year and crazy low babip/era. Probably wont be as good as last year, probably similar to jacob barnes with less walks but less strikeouts

 

The BABIP number is downright frightening. .203? For pitchers with 60+ innings pitched, that was the second best number in the majors last year behind Carl Edwards Jr. (.192).

 

The top two BABIP leaders with at least 60 innings pitched in 2016 were Ryan Dull and Travis Wood. Dull's ERA went from 2.42 in 2016 to 5.14 in 2017. Travis Wood's ERA when fron 2.95 in 2016 to 6.80 in 2017. However, the BABIP leaders in 2014 and 2015 did much better in the following seasons than Dull and Wood. I'm not going to type it all out, but the last 6 pitchers in this category had an average 2.28 ERA in their low BABIP season and an average 3.96 ERA in the following season. Obviously there will be some regression with Albers and it will be interesting to see how much. Would have rather Stearns only made a one year committment to Albers.

[SRB]

He had a career year last year and crazy low babip/era. Probably wont be as good as last year, probably similar to jacob barnes with less walks but less strikeouts

 

The BABIP number is downright frightening. .203? For pitchers with 60+ innings pitched, that was the second best number in the majors last year behind Carl Edwards Jr. (.192).

 

His BABIP won't stay that low and he won't maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, but it's worth noting that it wasn't necessarily pure luck: the advanced metrics suggest he was one of the best in the majors at inducing weak/soft contact (hence an abnormally low BABIP should be expected).

[JosephC]

Will point out that if his ERA increases at the average of "BABIP performers" during the last three years, the ERA will go from 1.62 to 3.30. 3.30 ERA is not too shabby!

[markedman5]

Suscac DFA to make room

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Suscac DFA to make room

 

Can't imagine anyone will grab him, but if someone does ... congrats I guess. I think he was clearly 4th on the depth chart, if not 5th behind Nottingham. It's too bad too, as I had high hopes for him going into last season. That injury in Spring Training really doomed him.

 

Wow, if Bickford doesn't pull it together, that Will Smith trade looks pretty bad.

[homer]

He should use the Fat Albert theme as his entry music.

[McRibMcLove]

Albers had very similar years in 2015 and 2017 looking at his numbers at bbref so it would be interesting to know if his arm position was different in 2015 compared to 2016. What was clear from the nice article at fangraphs was a clear difference in pitch location in 2017 that was distinct from the 2014-2016 period. It appears the Brewers do look at evidence for the underlying cause of a "breakout" year - it sure makes me more comfortable when there's a tangible change in a pitcher (stretch position, hand position, etc.) or batter (position in box, stance, hand placement, etc) that correlates with dramatic improvements versus things are the same but a statistical variation hits one year.

 

The nice thing about Albers numbers are even a significant change in BABIP (say .250-265) still leaves him with decent numbers.