Greinke Part II?

[tmwiese55]

Greinke did just put up a 3.2 ERA season and 200 innings last year. He's not some bum that they just need to clear out. There's 4 years left on the deal and it seems likely he should still at least be quality for two of the years. If they're being forced to eat a big chunk of money in a trade they're just going to keep him and they can 'eat' the big chunk of money in his last year of the deal when he's probably going to be bad.

[bill hAll Star]

Greinke started throwing his slider a lot more to reinvent himself. That could be good and bad as he gets older. It may destroy his arm, but I think he could be an upper-tier pitcher for a few more years. He also may grace whoever has his contract with an early retirement late in his career. I can't imagine walking away from $30 million, and I doubt he does, but he might just say that he's made enough.

 

If this was purely a Greinke for nothing salary dump, I'd consider it but probably not. If Zona kicked in $5-10 million/year, I'm starting to listen more.

[JosephC]

I see what you are saying.

 

I had not included the $20M in deferred money from 2016-17. That was part of his salary from that year - just paid later. That money is already earned and can't be lost in any fashion. The Diamondbacks are responsible for that chunk of change because he earned it in the years employed by them. So if Arizona traded him today (no money involved), they would be responsible for the $20M in deferred payments that were earned in 2016-17. The team acquiring Greinke would be responsible for the deferred payments only earned in the years he played for them. It's not as if the last man holding the contract is responsible for all of the deferred payments.

 

And I don't think you can negotiate monies that have already been earned. Meaning I don't think Arizona could say something like, "Hey, we'll include Player A and B if you pick up deferred payments Zack is due for the time he pitched with us in 2016 and 2017.

 

I think I am right about this stuff - but I'm not positive.

 

I believe that you are correct about the deferred portions of an annual salary. It's not a situation where a club can just say that they will defer 10 million dollars of a player's annual salary and not have to worry about it until whenever the payment is due. That club is required to fund that 10 million dollars up-front where it is reviewed by MLB and then when it comes time for the payment the player gets 10 million and the club can take the earnings that 10 million dollars made between the time it was invested and the time the payment was made (I also believe there is a limit that the club can earn, the player gets 10 million dollars and if the earnings happened to be crazy during that timeframe then the club gets a percentage of the earnings and the player's union gets a percentage of the earnings). As such I'm fairly certain the Diamondbacks are on the hook for any deferred payments relating to Greinke's 2016 and 2017 salaries.

 

My big question is if the annual payments on the signing bonus are considered deferred payments or not? If so, the Diamondbacks may be responsible for all of the signing bonus or only 33% of the signing bonus, which in this case would be 12 million dollars.

[JosephC]

Greinke's average WAR values between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference:

 

3 year average (2015-2017) = 5.12

2 year average (2016-2017) = 3.90

2017 = 5.55

 

Greinke had a relatively poor 2016 (average WAR = 2.25) but was excellent in 2015 and still pitched a top level in 2017.

 

2018 projections have him as just north of a 4 WAR pitcher.

 

If his projections are as follows, and these are complete guesses off the top of my head, Greinke really only has slightly negative surplus value even at the huge salaries.

2018 = 4.0 WAR * 9.16 = 36.64

2019 = 3.5 WAR * 9.8 = 34.30

2020 = 3.0 WAR * 10.49 = 31.47

2021 = 2.0 WAR * 11.22 = 22.44

Total value = 124.85 million

 

2020 and 2021 are obviously huge question marks but Greinke has a pretty deep repertoire. In 2017, he had a fairly significant drop in fastball velocity (91.0) and he was still a really effective pitcher (5.55 WAR). According to the Pitch Value table at Fangraphs, Greinke's fastball performance was terrible in 2016 and he still performed at a 2.25 WAR level. Let's just say I think Greinke will age better than many other top-of-the-rotation pitchers. If Greinke has to pitch with an 89 MPH fastball I seriously doubt if we'd be looking at a Jeff Suppan clone on the mound. I'd feel pretty decent that even with a falloff that he'd still be a pretty decent middle-of-the-rotation pitcher in 2021.

[StearnsFTW]

Greinke's average WAR values between Fangraphs and Baseball Reference:

 

3 year average (2015-2017) = 5.12

2 year average (2016-2017) = 3.90

2017 = 5.55

 

Greinke had a relatively poor 2016 (average WAR = 2.25) but was excellent in 2015 and still pitched a top level in 2017.

 

2018 projections have him as just north of a 4 WAR pitcher.

 

If his projections are as follows, and these are complete guesses off the top of my head, Greinke really only has slightly negative surplus value even at the huge salaries.

2018 = 4.0 WAR * 9.16 = 36.64

2019 = 3.5 WAR * 9.8 = 34.30

2020 = 3.0 WAR * 10.49 = 31.47

2021 = 2.0 WAR * 11.22 = 22.44

Total value = 124.85 million

 

2020 and 2021 are obviously huge question marks but Greinke has a pretty deep repertoire. In 2017, he had a fairly significant drop in fastball velocity (91.0) and he was still a really effective pitcher (5.55 WAR). According to the Pitch Value table at Fangraphs, Greinke's fastball performance was terrible in 2016 and he still performed at a 2.25 WAR level. Let's just say I think Greinke will age better than many other top-of-the-rotation pitchers. If Greinke has to pitch with an 89 MPH fastball I seriously doubt if we'd be looking at a Jeff Suppan clone on the mound. I'd feel pretty decent that even with a falloff that he'd still be a pretty decent middle-of-the-rotation pitcher in 2021.

 

Good post and I appreciate the legwork, but that very slight lack of surplus comes with huuuuge risk, so he becomes less valuable that way too. If they want to get rid of him, they're going to have to pay to do it. How much I don't know.

[wallus]

Greinke's value right now is very low with all of the FA starters still unsigned.

[reillymcshane]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

[wallus]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

 

1. Darvish

2. Greinke

3. Arrieta

[BuckyBrewer61]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

 

To realistic, market-value deals?

 

1. Darvish

2. Darvish

3. Darvish

 

Not interested in Greinke (age) and Arrieta (age plus numbers already declining past 2 years...also, Cubs). If had to I'd take Greinke > Arrieta.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

 

Darvish

Arrieta

Greinke

 

Based on age alone. Pitchers in their late 30s who continue to get good results are very, very rare. Yes, Greinke is very smart and ultra-competitive, but I just have a feeling his age coupled with the innings load on his arm over the years is going to catch up with him. Granted it isn't like Arrieta and Darvish don't have wear on their arms, too, but I'm taking the younger guy every time.

 

If we're talking about only 2018-19, though, I'd probably pick Greinke.

[pacopete4]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

 

1. Darvish (31-34)- The age factor for me pushed him above Greinke

2. Greinke (34-37)- He's close to Darvish for me but the age and innings scare me a bit.

3. Arrietta (32-35)- All numbers are trending down and I don't really like him.

[bill hAll Star]

If we're talking about only 2018-19, though, I'd probably pick Greinke.

 

This right here slants it to Greinke a bit if one makes some assumptions.

 

Assumption 1 is that the trade would essentially be a salary dump trade.

 

Assumption 2 is that Darvish and Arrieta are getting into 5 or 6 year territory in their negotiations.

 

Now the idea of Greinke makes some sense. I'd agree with your sentiment that Greinke has a good chance to be as good or better for the next 2 years. After that, you're paying Greinke for 2 years (we'll leave the deferred payments out for now) and you might be paying Arrieta/Darvish for 3-4 more years.

[Boomer5]

If AZ wants to dump his contract, we could take it on plus prospects.

[MrTPlush]

If AZ wants to dump his contract, we could take it on plus prospects.

 

Never going to happen. If we were willing to do that Darvish would have already had his welcoming press conference.

[coolhandluke121]

With Arrieta and Darvish likely to "settle" for contracts that are a better value than Greinke's, this doesn't make much sense. Arizona would have to pay a lot of his salary, but then it doesn't make sense for them. They are a playoff team and I expect them to continue to be a top-10 team. I don't think people realize how much core talent they have because they had such a crazy 2016 where almost everyone was hurt and/or had numbers way below what their career norms project to be.

 

Now if it's part of a larger deal involving Santana for some of their best prospects, then it could be that rare trade between win-now teams that makes sense for both teams. That way you take care of the Santana dilemma instead of making your move to soon without knowing how the outfield chips will fall.

[JosephC]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

 

1- Greinke

2 - Darvish

3 - Arrieta

 

Durability is number one when making large commitments and Arrieta's inning totals have dropped by over 30 each of the last two seasons which made him an easy pick as the #3 choice. I did not like the way Darvish finished last year and don't necessarily buy the tipping pitches angle (his control sucked and he didn't look like he had any clue as to where the ball was going). Greinke has an advantage in that he has avoided the big arm injury but Darvish has an advantage in that he's three years younger. In the end I went with Greinke simply because he was a better pitcher than Darvish in 2017. Darvish wasn't particularly bad or anything like that, but he was a 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 3.83 FIP pitcher in his first full season after the arm injury (but had thrown 100 innings in 2016, so he should have been in top form or very near top form in 2017). Compare it to Greinke who had a 3.20 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 3.31 FIP. So I went with Greinke. I may have opted to Darvish if the committment was 5 years instead of 4.

[reillymcshane]

Money aside, I go:

 

1) Greinke

2) Darvish

3) Arrieta

 

I just think Greinke has a couple more seasons of really good pitching left in him. I'm not sure about the other guys. Even with the age and the extra mileage on his arm, I see Greinke as a smart, durable player who will keep it up as long as the other guys - and at a higher level. Plus he's a good batter. Gotta like that.

 

All three guys have red flags, but in the end, I'd take Greinke if given the chance (although I don't think Arizona will deal him).

[dlk9s]

I'd trade Cain and Jeffress for Greinke. That's half price!

[Eye Black]

If you could sign Darvish, Greinke or Arrieta to a 4-year contract, who would it be? Rank them - 1-3. Don't worry about money.

1) Darvish

2) Greinke

—————-

3) Arrieta

 

I would gladly bet on Greinke to remain more productive over the next 4 years over Arrieta. I think Greinke has a chance to be a Kevin Brown type pitcher that ages really, really well. I won’t be surprised if Arrieta is a below average starter at some point in the next two years, it seems like he might not be that far from the cliff. Another thing, if the Brewers did make the playoffs, Greinke may leap ahead of Darvish in terms of who I would want on the mound for a must win playoff game.

[Warning Track Power]

I have literally zero interest in Greinke. Not only do I think the Diamondbacks will want close to full value given his pitching results last year, I also don’t like his personality in the Brewers locker room. Keep in mind this team was apparently very close last year and inserting someone with the personality of Greinke, who is at best awkward and at worst divisive, could prove challenging. I’d rather not make a move than see him back in Milwaukee.

[MKEguy]

If he was a FA, I’d be happy with 4/$100 considering his age, recent production and mileage. With a trade, I wouldn’t want to give up much, meaning Dbacks wouldn’t want to make a trade... they’d get a Lara in return while still paying him $60M to not play for them.

 

On a separate note, if they were all 4/$100m deals, I’d take

Yu (in a heartbeat)

Zack

Jake

 

Considering Yu may get 6 years and I think Zack will produce better into his old age, I’d change the list to

Zack

Yu

Jake

 

Next question, what reasonable deal would you rather have Jake over the other two considering they’re suspected cost to acquire?

 

2/35M??

 

Some team will give Jake too many years, so I doubt this is an option.

[yoyomayoma]

Greinke has been very open about his battle with social anxiety. I think a lot of people mistake that with his personality.

[MKEguy]

Greinke has been very open about his battle with social anxiety. I think a lot of people mistake that with his personality.

 

He’s my favorite interview in baseball.

 

“I don't like to just talk about nothing, or less than nothing. If it's something interesting, I'm fine with it, but, 'Hey, Zack, how is your day?' People ask that, and somebody actually tells them what happened in their day? I don't have any real interest in that.”

 

“To talk to people, I have to spend energy talking to them. If I expend my energy on talking to people and making friends, it takes away from the energy I could focus on getting ready to pitch.”

[Warning Track Power]

Greinke has been very open about his battle with social anxiety. I think a lot of people mistake that with his personality.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/20/pat-neshek-zack-greinke-autograph-rockies-diamondbacks-turd

Social anxiety is definitely no laughing matter but things like this rub me the wrong way. Its a peer and you're seemingly douchey for the sake of being douchey here.

 

Back on point, I would prefer keeping that personality out of the already tight knit locker room.

[brewer1]

I wonder what Neshek would pay for that autograph...my son has a Greinke Brewer jersey autographed by Zack when he was with the brewers...Not that my son would ever sell it...